Billmon:
[G]iven how well Hezbollah is doing so far, it doesn’t look the Israelis can deliver a knock out blow — not in a few weeks, or a few months and probably not even in a few years.
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July 15, 2006
WB: Punching Above Its Weight
Billmon:
Comments
Israel is losing this war the same way it “lost” the October 1973 War — by not crushing its enemies swiftly and completely, and then rubbing their faces in their own impotence and humilation.
U.S. Policy in Lebanon by Ray Close, a former CIA analyst in the Near East division “This could be scare mongering. The Israelis may be exaggerating Hezbollah’s capabilities to provide political cover for a prolonged and bloody campaign in Lebanon.” Posted by: Monolycus | Jul 15 2006 4:42 utc | 2 The Israeli leadership for all these many generations has been incapable of performing that really rather simple mental and moral exercise. Posted by: John Francis Lee | Jul 15 2006 4:43 utc | 3
John Francis Lee: “Without the American dollars they’ll make peace soon enough.” Not militarily, of course — The IDF could turn Lebanon into a parking lot if it wanted to, and if it’s willing to take enough casualties it can probably push Hezbollah away from the Israeli border and suppress the rocket attacks (or at least most of them.) For what it’s worth, Israel pretty much did lose the Yom Kippur War, at least on the Egyptian side. Yeah, they were winning when the mediators intervened, but the israelis got fucked by the first two weeks of the war, and it was massive US assistance that kept them on their feet. Even at the end, Egypt was still capable of fighting on, and Israel did not have the capability to *hold* territory, nor take Suez City. As with most things israel, you have to be very careful about what books you read on the topic. The ones published right after the war are actually the most accurate, to my guessimate. Posted by: shah8 | Jul 15 2006 5:48 utc | 7 John Robb points out today, that the new Army/Marine Counterinsurgency Field Manual fails to even mention 4th generation warfare. Seems like the military establishments of Israel and the U.S. have got shit between their ears, rather like the fans of Monster Trucks, where form has so totally transcended function as to become at best, a carnival novelity. But then again, if these powers were to actually embrace 4th generation warfare, they would have to understand the cultures to be exploited, and that might develope into empathy — and who could control that? And perish the thought of our “Shock and Awe” gun-slinger president reduced to sending in an army of peace corps workers with guns. No, we’re stuck in this rut for a reason, and has to do with not so much as winning, but looking like a winner. And thats a strategy, thats bound to lose. Posted by: anna missed | Jul 15 2006 5:50 utc | 8 Rick Happ : Posted by: John Francis Lee | Jul 15 2006 6:08 utc | 9 Christ…Fredo, The Decider, fell off the wagon again, w/Putin… (note brown bottle, presumably beer, on table by right hand) Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 6:39 utc | 10 John Francis Lee, Right now, lebanon is taking a pounding Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 7:32 utc | 12 This from Digby today (i’ve often wondered about this); Posted by: anna missed | Jul 15 2006 7:43 utc | 13 Yep I’m with Shah8 on the Yom Kippur war. The Sinai was a wasteland of Israeli/amerikan tank hulks within the first few days of yom kippur. This caused a few heads to roll from the pentagon down the road to Bendix or General Motors; whichever lame assed contractor sold the unmanouverable, thin skinned fire traps to the pentagon then onto Israel. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 15 2006 7:44 utc | 14 This from Digby today (i’ve often wondered about this); Posted by: anna missed | Jul 15 2006 7:45 utc | 15 That Friedman quote is absolutely true (never thought I’d say that!). Posted by: Vin Carreo | Jul 15 2006 8:07 utc | 16 I blogged this one on my Lebanese-American site. Then I went off on a bit of a rant. I’ve been swarmed by right-wing troll commenters and had to respond. Go ahead and have a look. Here’s hoping Billmon notices, I am grateful for his blog. Everyone was shocked and surprised at the US destruction of Iraqi infrastructure and its non-replacement despite the billions raked of by Halliburton, Bechtel and the rest. People kept waiting for a good year for the reconstruction to take place. It was assumed things would eventually get up to speed. Posted by: John Francis Lee | Jul 15 2006 11:55 utc | 18 John Francis Lee: “Now the purposeful Israeli destruction of the infrastructure in Gaza and now in Beirut puts that into perspective. The identical neocon war plan in both instances. ” Israel is losing this war the same way it “lost” the October 1973 War Posted by: Noirette | Jul 15 2006 13:42 utc | 20 The genesis of Israeli anti-insurgency tactics seems to be France/Algeria to US/Vietnam to Israel/Gaza to US/Iraq and so on. The fact that every war has been lost seems to be irrelevant to the hard headed realists who run such things. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 15 2006 14:21 utc | 21 And then there’s always the possibility that we are seeing a conscious attempt at provoking some kind of serious atattack against the West in retaliation for what Israel is doing. Posted by: SteinL | Jul 15 2006 14:45 utc | 22 If any of you dropped by and commented at my blog, thank you. I was getting swarmed by hate-comments – some right wing blogger picked up my feed. I’m a Lebanese-American blogger with family in South Lebanon pinned down in their (Christian) village. Thanks so much for helping out, I’ve tried replying by email but some of the kind commenters used aliases (as I do) thought some here might be interested. there is a thread on a blog usually dedicated to frequent flyer travel where a poster who lives on a kibbutz in northern israel and another who lives in beirut are sharing first hand accounts of what is going on around them. it is refreshing for the empathy that takes the place of much of the vitriol you encounter elsewhere on the net. i am in the middle of reading it and recommend it. Posted by: conchita | Jul 15 2006 16:49 utc | 24 Norette, French President Jacques Chirac was even harsher in his comments about Israel, saying, “One could ask if today there is not sort of a will to destroy Lebanon, its equipment, its roads, its communications.” NYT is at work pushing NeoNut Agenda. AngryArab notes:
Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 18:34 utc | 27 Oops, first clip from NYT omitted – not quite all here today… Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 18:39 utc | 28 The US and Israeli leadership are addicted to the theory that they can intimidate opponents who routinely use suicide bombing as a tactic. This leads one to ask whether top policy makers in both nations have assistants who help them tie their shoes. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 15 2006 18:45 utc | 29 Debka is reporting that the missile that hit the Israeli ship was an Iranian Silkworm.
Not being snarky citizen k, –and maybe I’m missreading you here–, but no one has as of yet explained to me the difference in a suicide bomber and a Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 19:38 utc | 32 not a complete surprise – but watching cnnskybbc – bullshit most of these hot days & nights & the complete absence of ‘arab’ voices & the absolute preponderance of israelis spokesmen & so called experts who seem to have their talking points straight from donald rumsfield Posted by: r’giap | Jul 15 2006 19:54 utc | 33 I’d be somewhat skeptical of the silkworm story – if the ship had been hit by a C-802 then it would have been cut in half with the loss of far more than 4 personnel, and with little chance of making it back home before it sunk; 700kg missiles with an explosive warhead travelling at a few hundred miles per hour have a very deleterious effect on ships the size of the vessel that was hit. Posted by: dan | Jul 15 2006 19:55 utc | 34 This missile that hit the Israeli warship. Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 15 2006 20:14 utc | 35 Uncle: In this case there is a clear difference. It is possible that a show of force and shock-and-awe can deter someone from using a gunship, but opponents who have shown a willingness to explode themselves (or to find pawns who will do so) are unlikely to be susceptible to such tactics. It seems obvious to me that suicide bombers will not be deterred by the possibility of their own or their neighbors deaths and that attempts to indimidate them by violence are evidence of exceptional stupidity. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 15 2006 20:28 utc | 36 Putin Jabs Bush: ‘We Certainly Would Not Want…The Same Kind of Democracy As They Have in Iraq’ Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 20:36 utc | 37 Example II: Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 20:52 utc | 38 In this case there is a clear difference. Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 20:58 utc | 39 if i understand my bbcskycnn correctly – all the israelis are doing is kindly reminding their neighbours lebanon that they have some members of the family who ought to dissapear & if they could be so kind – the israeli will do it on their behalf Posted by: r’giap | Jul 15 2006 20:58 utc | 40 Uncle, you under featured yr. Great link on US going broke. Prob. ‘cuz we’ve discussed it so much. But when it comes from one of Am-‘s most distinguished economists, in a paper written for Fed. Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Big Question is why is this written up in Brit. paper, rather than NYT/WarPost Headline? It’s the obvious way to shut down this Iran War yak. Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 21:12 utc | 41 So, when Repatriation Airways Scam happens under Pres. from JackAss Party, will kos ban such a diary? Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 21:17 utc | 42 Uncle: I think you misunderstand the point of my argument which is purely strategic altough you want to see me as trying to excuse the Israelis. Posted by: cit | Jul 15 2006 21:19 utc | 43 No, cit, or ck, I was trying to engage you to clarify your comments. If that is to much to ask, the fucking say so. Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 15 2006 21:35 utc | 44 the Big Question is why is this written up in Brit. paper, rather than NYT/WarPost Headline? Posted by: b real | Jul 15 2006 22:03 utc | 45 The world has turned. There can’t be a negotiated cease-fire. There is no state to negotiate with, only Terrorists or Defenders of Islam depending on your viewpoint. Israel can’t allow missiles to keep hitting their cities. They will have to reoccupy Lebanon and depopulate a 40 mile buffer zone. As Muslim genocide escalates so will retaliation. With Syria and Iran as the only states existent in opposition, a bombing campaign is sure commence. Israel and the USA do not have enough troops to occupy Syria and Iran. Once the steerage of a couple oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are hit with drones, the US economy will collapse. The only question is will the USA be forced out of the Middle East by economic pressures or will a nuclear exchange occur first. Posted by: Jim S | Jul 15 2006 22:42 utc | 46 Uncle: let me try again. For the moment, let’s put the morality of gunships versus suicide bombs to the side and consider things from a cold realpolitik point of view. Use of suicide bombing as a tactic appears to me to, operationally, indicate disregard for lives of innocents, desperation, and willingness to die for the cause (as indicated by the “suicide” part). You may find it laudable or despicable – this has no bearing on my argument here. My point was that it seems unbelievably idiotic to try to frighten suicide bombers with the fear of death, chaos, and hopelessness. Isn’t this like trying to drown a fish? Do they think that someone prepared to blow themselves up in a crowded cafe today will see the bombing of a village and be intimidated or horrified? “Oh god, now that I know the Israelis are willing to use force, I’m too scared to blow myself up, I could get hurt.” The utter stupidity of this shock-and-awe tactic is hard to comprehend. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 15 2006 23:00 utc | 47 THIS IS ALL BULLSHIT: Posted by: jj | Jul 15 2006 23:22 utc | 49 Call the damn border a DMZ & send in Nato troops/UN troops to patrol it. End of Story. Posted by: biklett | Jul 16 2006 0:30 utc | 50 Attacking Hezbollah is no more the reason, than getting back the ‘kidnapped’ p.o.w. was the real reason for levelling Gaza. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 0:36 utc | 51 The Palestinians have been begging the UN for peacekeeping troops for years and years. Guess who keeps vetoing it? Posted by: Ensley | Jul 16 2006 0:49 utc | 52 Hey #51. There was a UN peacekeeping force on the 1967 borders, but when Nasser decided to attack Israel, he asked them to get out of the way and they did! Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 0:53 utc | 53 well citizen k @ #53 I don’t know where you got your history but Israel launched an attack on Egypt in 1967 using claims that Gamal Nasser’s comments on the state of Israel needing to be abolished in favour of a state which represented all citizens arab, jewish, and xtian as meaning that Egypt wanted to kill all jewish citizens. The threats emanating out of Israel caused Egypt and Syria to mass their troops close to their borders. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 2:53 utc | 54 Well #54, I hate to dispute such an authoritative analysis of the 1967 ME war an eyewitness to a New Zealand student socialist organization, but
is an orwellian way of agreeing with me. Nasser ordered the UN to withdraw their buffer zone troops and the UN did. (and then he cut off Israel’s oil by blocking the Gulf). I don’t give a shit whether in your mind Nasser was forced to do so because of his deep concern for the lives of UN soldiers or whether, more likely, he was like George Bush too stupid to realize that “bring it on” is something you shouldn’t say if you can’t walk the walk.
Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 3:21 utc | 55 xUS Admitting they’ve begun war on Iran?? Posted by: jj | Jul 16 2006 7:10 utc | 56 Strategic bombing??? who are they kidding now? Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 7:31 utc | 57 Those people claiming to be Palestinian were Arabs who had invaded Israel after all the jewish people left a couple of thousand years before. In Washington, a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said the United States was disinclined to seek a cease-fire “because the Israelis have made it abundantly clear that that’s not what they’re going to do.” Posted by: jj | Jul 16 2006 7:46 utc | 59 Israelis bombing Beirut suburbs, incl. power plant. Posted by: jj | Jul 16 2006 8:05 utc | 60 Establishing hegemony can be such a b**ch, fauxreal Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 8:23 utc | 61 My historical notes have nothing to do with establishing hegemony, anonymous poster or rightward pointing arrow or whatever. I’m disputing the remark, which is obviously a lie, that either you or another anonymous poster/rightward pointing arrow made about the history of the population in the area. I cant see how this whole thing is going well for the neo-con agenda, after all they’ve brought the Shiites to power in Iraq, thereby increasing Iran’s power. Their overall plan — that a Shiite “democracy” in Iraq would prove instrumental in achieving a popular revolution against the mullahs in Iran is pretty much D.O.A. Now, with an Israeli anti-Shiite incursion into Lebanon — clearly, state sponsored terrorism (by definition), undermines the WOT through U.S./Israeli linkage, and further illuminates the hegemonic (as opposed to democratic) intentions in the region. Recent squawking by King Abdullah and Mubarak about the rise of Shiite power, and their criticism of Hezbollah’s rocket attacks would underline this (right arabist) point of view. Philosophically, the neo-cons would see an outbreak of regional civil war — probably the greatist threat facing the region — as an okay result, having failed in their misguided original intents. At least everyone would have forgotten why (and who) it all got started. The problem for the realists in the administration is that if this gets out of hand, it’ll probably bankrupt — both countries. Posted by: anna missed | Jul 16 2006 9:18 utc | 63 faux, Posted by: anna missed | Jul 16 2006 9:22 utc | 64 So what Nasser wanted to destroy Israel. I, like most of the rest of the world wants to see Israel destroyed. That doesn’t make Nasser anything other than a human being. Why? Because just like their apartheid former friends in South Africa, the state exists solely because of the degradation, misery and death in inflicts on others. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 9:33 utc | 65 And so #65, we come to this. First you state
and then you are forced to admit that
And we see that you consider it ok to paraphrase deceptively and that for you it is an act of unprovoked aggression for Israel to attack a nation that demands its destruction and imposes a blockade on it. You insist it is a crime for Israel to refuse to return to 1967 borders that you consider illegitimate anyways. Of course, this is what the Israelis always say – there is no point in negotiating with people who are fixed on an eliminationist agenda. For you it is immoral for the Jews to flout UN resolutions returning them to 1967 borders, but only justice for the UN established existence of Israel to be repudiated. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 13:26 utc | 66 faux… ah, I see the problem, you’re confusing your anonymous posters. I believe that whoever it was you were replying to was citing the Israeli line on the Palestinians: that they don’t really exist as a people. I don’t think that their point ws about the disappearance of the Jews from the area, although of course your point about their continued presence is a very very important element of the Israeli claim to the land. Posted by: the 2nd anonymous poster, not the first | Jul 16 2006 13:51 utc | 67 PS My posts were numbers 61 & 57, but I do have to dispute something you replied to the person who wrote 65. Posted by: 2nd anonymous poster | Jul 16 2006 13:56 utc | 68 By the way, unlike the author of post 65, do not wish to see Israel destroyed. I do, however, wish that my country the USA would enforce international law when it came to our policies on Israel and the rights of Israel’s neighbors and those who are under its Occupation. Posted by: 2nd anonymous poster | Jul 16 2006 13:58 utc | 69 2cd anonymous:
In addition to the inexcusable murder by the Israeli army, we find a new note of whiny excuses for their incompetence, but it’s comforting to find that the UN peacekeepers are still protecting civilians with the same level of panache and dedication that they have showed so many times before. Massacres of civilians are an ancient human trait, but the UN has brought something new to the mix – a level of sheer hypocritical uselessness, of cruelly false hope, of pretend humanism, that is really outstanding. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 14:14 utc | 70 2cd anonymous: Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 14:18 utc | 71 citizen k Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 16 2006 14:27 utc | 72 Oh, and I don’t consider it irrelevant to the proportion of concern about Israel that it is the only country that seems to get unquestioning support from my government (including, for example, via policies such as the invasion of Iraq & a reveral of 30 years of diplomacy policy) and my tax dollars… not to mention the current destabilization of the Middle East and the destruction of what is still a fragile new peaceful democracy in Lebanon and its infrastructure. Posted by: the 2nd anonymous poster | Jul 16 2006 14:38 utc | 74 #72 – my objection to the international law arguments is that it is so often made in bad faith. Consider our Pakeha colonialist correspondent who simultaneously decries Israel’s horrible failure to accept UN resolutions demanding a return to pre-67 borders while applauding Nasser’s call for destruction of Israel in contravention of UN resolutions. What can we make of that except that for a liar and bigot, any excuse will do? Posted by: citizen k | Jul 16 2006 14:59 utc | 75 anna missed I agree with the main point(s) of your post, but: Posted by: Noirette | Jul 16 2006 15:51 utc | 76 my post, again, was a response to a statement in another post, because I see eliminationist rhetoric from both sides, tho the eliminationist rhetoric I hear in the U.S. comes from Bushbots, not liberals…tho maybe they’ve said the same. Until both sides can accept the others’ right to exist, I do not see how peace is possible. Noirette, Posted by: anna missed | Jul 16 2006 18:44 utc | 78 Always keep in mind that 90% of the oil exported from the Persian Gulf area — Iraq, Iran, etc — stays in Asia; supplying China, Japan, India and so forth, in that order. By America creating puppet govts in these countries, it effectively has taken control of the oil flow and therefore the economies of three of the fastest growing giants on earth. Posted by: Ensley | Jul 16 2006 19:45 utc | 79 The hypocrisy is Israel’s not mine. The terrorists who sought to establish Israel did so by using the collective guilt/racism felt by Europeans post WW2 to establish a state on another’s land.
Check out the abstentions! It should also be remembered that in most cases in order to turn outright vetos into mere abstentions the resolutions often had to be watered down to near meaningless. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 17 2006 0:34 utc | 80 Y’know, deceiving ourselves about the history of the area and the nature of the conflict is not going to bring peace. I apply that to arguments made on both “sides”, here, as well as those made by people actively involved in the conflict. It is all a moral swamp, and it will take great moral strength to reclaim any of it. Posted by: Randolph Fritz | Jul 17 2006 0:46 utc | 81 It isn’t very edifying to see apologists for Israel hanging around MoA deliberately implying that those who argue for the abolition of the apartheid state of Israel are arguing for the casting out of all jewish people from the state that would replace Israel. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 17 2006 0:50 utc | 82 thanks for the links to the UN resolutions. I really appreciate it when people post data. @fauxreal
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 17 2006 3:05 utc | 84 #80 lots of words but the dishonesty of your argument is plain to see. When Nasser calls for the destruction of the state of Israel in violation of the UN Charter and the resolutions that established Israel, that’s good because the Israelis are zionist racist scum. When the Israelis refuse to accept UN resolutions calling for return to pre-1967 border, thats a terrible flouting of international law. So, like everyone else, you don’t take “international law” seriously, it’s just a shoddy excuse. You can offer up this transparent bullshit that Nasser was calling for a hippie commune of brotherly love to replace the horrible Zionist State, but nobody is fooled – the fate of the Jews in Israel if the Arabs had won the 1967 war would have been grim indeed. Posted by: citizen k | Jul 17 2006 3:08 utc | 85 #82 – Fox news could certainly use you. You write Posted by: citizen k | Jul 17 2006 3:16 utc | 86 read what people write and there will be no misunderstandings: Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 17 2006 3:45 utc | 87 While I have no doubt that any attempt I make to respond to the current bunch of ad hominem attacks will result in the same passive aggressive “woe is me lookit what that asshole has called me” that people who would rather argue someone’s character than a viewpoint, generally seek, I am going to say what it is that I find so abhorrent about those who try to ‘be fair’, ‘lookit Israel’s point of view’, or even though this weeks ‘score’ is over 100 dead Lebanese to less than 10 dead Israelis, still want to “consider the Arabs/Lebanese/Palestinian/HB faults/breaches/mistakes as well’ Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 17 2006 3:50 utc | 88 phil s, computer hard drive crashed a few weeks ago. lost all email addresses. can you please send me yours? Posted by: conchita | Jul 17 2006 4:04 utc | 89 #88 – your opening premise is that Israel doesn’t have a right to exist and needs to be demolished as a state. You’re not clear on what should happen to the Jewish and Druse inhabitants, but let’s let that pass and consider how peculiar the rest of your argument is when this premise is understood. Because most of your argument is a complaint about the failure of the Israelis to follow UN regulations. The fundamental premise of the UN is the integrity of the nation state – and the UN recognizes Israel as such a state. So (1) UN regulations be damned, Israel should be violently destroyed and (2) the nasty Israelis are criminal because they don’t follow UN rules. Did you learn jurisprudence from Kafka? You seem to be deeply offended that the Israelis will not cooperate in their own extinction. The Israelis argue that Palestinians never accepted the 1967 borders, that their is no point in negotiating with them because they see every concession as just a step towards genocide. And you validate their argument (Where I disagree with the Israelis is on what the implications of that bad faith are, but our settler correspondent helps us to see one of the causes of the current disaster). Posted by: citizen k | Jul 17 2006 4:23 utc | 90 fauxreal (post #58 here and post #24 on “Failed States”), Posted by: Rick Happ | Jul 17 2006 4:44 utc | 91 “arguing for the casting out of all jewish people” Posted by: Randolph Fritz | Jul 17 2006 6:01 utc | 92 Someone out in public hears cries and comes across a person beating another to death. The passer-by tells the attacker to stop but the attacker doesn’t. He shouts for help no one comes yet still the beating continues until it gets so bad that he threatens the attacker who immediately turns around and hits him. Then the passer-by whacks the attacker partially in his own self defense and partially to help the by now barely breathing victim. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 17 2006 7:35 utc | 93 Well, what can one do with a hagiography of Nasser coupled with a defense of British colonialism in NZ? Laugh? Posted by: citizen k | Jul 17 2006 14:17 utc | 95 Surely, we can agree that Israel exist de facto and de jure. Posted by: Noirette | Jul 17 2006 15:51 utc | 96 Noirette- this has been the focus and question of my posts on this issue. Noirette, Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 18 2006 2:00 utc | 98 Dear Swede: UN Observation has a value when two closely matched powers need a third party. However over the last 15 years UN soldiers have turned their backs on so many horrible massacres, stepped aside for so many butchers, for what? I Posted by: citizen k | Jul 18 2006 2:06 utc | 99 citizen k, Posted by: 2nd anonymous poster | Jul 19 2006 6:42 utc | 100 |
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