WB: How I’m Feeling at the Moment +

July 26, 2006

Billmon:

If all this sounds familiar — the half-baked war plan, the unexpected setbacks, the frantic search for foreign legions, the lack of an exit strategy, the rising tide of blood — it certainly should. We’ve already seen this movie, in fact we’re still sitting through the last reel. It’s a hell of a time to release the sequel.

II. Better Now
—

I. How I’m Feeling at the Moment

Posted by b on July 26, 2006 at 06:46 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Yes, the overwhelming precision attacks on Lebanon and the unguided missile attacks on Israel are certainly a terrible situation if you think about the consequences of Israel attacking in an overt fashion someone else besides Palestine, and with overt US support.
Escalation.
But because Lebanon is a new horror it eclipses the current horror in Iraq and the growing rebellion in Afghanistan.
Something I read today said that Cheney and Rumsfeld have kept George in the dark in a major way. I’m starting to believe that myself — when Jon Stewart asked McCain last night what the expletive was up with Bush, the best straight answer he got was no, Bush is not a true believer, at least in the fundamentalist sense.
Stewart laughed and said that for some reason that was a relief — I assume because a rational Bush is easier to accept than an irrational one, at least as far as goals go. Think about it: trying to bring on the rapture, or trying to leave a great legacy of worldwide peace and the approval of your friends and relatives. The second is clearly less dangerous than the first.
Too bad no one can get through to him.

Posted by: jonku | Jul 26 2006 7:11 utc | 1

Eight Palestinians killed in Israel Air Force strikes in Gaza

Eight Palestinians were killed in three separate Israel Defense Forces attacks in northern Gaza on Wednesday morning, witnesses and medics reported.
The Israel Air Force reported carrying out an air strike in the northern Gaza town of Jabalya after militants fired an anti-tank missile at Israeli forces. Witnesses said an Israeli tank had fired on the crowd.
A three-year-old child and members of a force led by the governing Hamas movement were among those killed.
Earlier Wednesday, IAF strikes in Gaza killed two militants, one from Hamas and one from Islamic Jihad, medics said.
About 50 Israel Defense Forces tanks moved back into northern Gaza early Wednesday as part of Operation Samson’s Pillars.
The IDF said troops were operating in northern Gaza as part of a campaign to stop terrorism and rocket barrages at Israel. The military said aircraft targeted three groups of militants who were approaching the troops. Exchanges of fire between the two sides were reported through the night.
…
Early Wednesday, IDF troops took over rooftops of several houses in northern Gaza, residents said, and IAF aircraft blasted several houses of Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists after warning the people to leave.
In another tactic, the Palestinian phone company said more than 1,000 residents of the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis received recorded messages from Israel, warning them not to hide weapons or shield militants. The residents were apparently picked at random, phone company officials said.
On Tuesday, a Palestinian boy was killed and his father and sister wounded near Khan Yunis. Palestinians blamed Israeli gunfire, but Israel denied that.
…
Also Tuesday a number of IDF tanks and bulldozers crossed the border into Gaza into the Abassan region near Khan Yunis, witnesses said.
…
Meanwhile, in the West Bank about 20 IDF jeeps entered the city of Ramallah on Tuesday night and surrounded a building there, Palestinian security officials said.

50 tanks – that is a heavy batallion with some 400-500 soldiers and enough firepower to turn a decent city into rubble within an hour.

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 7:38 utc | 2

Tory MP: Lebanon raid reminiscent of Nazi atrocity on Warsaw ghetto

Sir Peter Tapsell, a Tory MP, said Tuesday that British Prime Minister Tony Blair was “colluding” with U.S. President George W. Bush in giving Israel the okay to wage “unlimited war” in Lebanon – a war crime he claimed was “gravely reminiscent of the Nazi atrocity on the Jewish quarter of Warsaw.”

I have been pounded for saying such some days ago …

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 7:44 utc | 3

Much, much appreciated commentary this last week Billmon. Seeing the shape of things, as they happen, is whats missing, everyplace else.

Posted by: anna missed | Jul 26 2006 9:37 utc | 4

The political backslash in Israel is coming and this is very dangerous (emphasis added):
Haaretz comment No hidden agenda

Nevertheless, two weeks into the war, it is coming across as a runaway train over which the government’s control is growing increasingly tenuous.
The decision to send large ground forces into southern Lebanon and to assign them targets further and further from the border is looking more of a derivative of the military dynamic than the outcome of any well-thought-out political consideration. When the hope of eliminating Hezbollah’s rocket-launching capability by means of the Israel Air Force alone proved vain, the supreme command of the Israeli army found itself even more determined to fulfill the expectations placed in it, and to that end, is now calling up reserve units and moving infantry and armored brigades into Lebanon.
Based on this logic, it might even reach the conclusion that without an attack on Syria, there is no possibility of paralyzing Hezbollah firepower. Which is not say that this is indeed the intention of the General Staff, or that the prime minister is not sure he would know how to put on the brakes in time. What it does mean is that war has an inner logic of its own, and has the power to drag decision-makers into places they did not initially intend to go.
When the big guns are booming and the soldiers and pilots are risking their lives and falling in battles that are conceived as a war over one’s own home, it is inappropriate to talk about the political dimension of events. But in a developed society, there is no other choice. This war is heading toward a situation in which a question mark is forming over the public futures of the prime minister, the defense minister, the chief of staff and evidently, several generals, as well. It would be naive to assume this prospect is not affecting the considerations weighed by the decision-makers as they ponder Israel’s next moves in this war.

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 10:23 utc | 5

Good post, as usual, billmon. Just wanted to point out that this

So I explained to my friend that the EU manages a currency and writes standardized regulations for toaster safety and stuff like that, but it doesn’t do peacekeeping.

is not actually correct. The EU has been conducting peacekeeping missions (with mixed results) for the past three years, in Congo, Bosnia and Macedonia.

Posted by: Bistroist | Jul 26 2006 10:28 utc | 6

I thank Billmon for the excellent writing during this latest horror. I sympathize with him–the strain is affecting anyone who cares.
Israel’s duplication of the American balls-up in Iraq is proof that stupidity is contagious.

Posted by: hopping madbunny | Jul 26 2006 10:43 utc | 7

there is also the wise saying of that military stragegist, Groucho Marx:
“Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.”

Posted by: hopping madbunny | Jul 26 2006 10:45 utc | 8

If all this sounds familiar — the half-baked war plan, the unexpected setbacks, the frantic search for foreign legions, the lack of an exit strategy, the rising tide of blood — it certainly should. We’ve already seen this movie, in fact we’re still sitting through the last reel. It’s a hell of a time to release the sequel.
As far as writing mechanics and aesthetics this has to be the most crystal clear indepth analysis I have ever read of what is going on. Perfection. Brilliant, and I haven’t even gotten past the snip to read the rest yet; that this says everything you need to know on so many levels once again, shows why billmon is a master prose artist. If writing was therapy, Billmon is a shaman, a powerful witch doctor.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 26 2006 12:20 utc | 9

CNN “Developing News”:

Mideast crisis talks in Rome break down over disagreements about the nature of any cease-fire, sources tell CNN.

= Stalemate

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 12:28 utc | 10

Haaretz: When the hope of eliminating Hezbollah’s rocket-launching capability by means of the Israel Air Force alone proved vain
I am hoping that this lesson will carry over into any future plans Israel may have to bomb Iran.

Posted by: Ensley | Jul 26 2006 13:13 utc | 11

Mideast talks ‘fail to reach agreement’

Talks in Rome on a plan for ending the 15-day-old conflict in Lebanon have failed to reach agreement barring a last-minute breakthrough, sources said.
With key Middle East players unable to reach consensus on a cease-fire and deployment of an international force, diplomats were trying to cobble together a face-saving statement, they said.
A U.S. official described Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as being “under siege” but holding firm any cessation of hostilities must include a permanent disarming of Lebanonese Hezbollah militants.
There is agreement on humanitarian and reconstruction packages, but those can’t be implemented with the fighting continuing, the source said.
Diplomats were said to be working on some form of statement because no agreement could be reached on a full communique due to the failure to reach a consensus.
In difficult discussions, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan led demands for an immediate cease-fire, with trickier political issues to be dealt with at a later date.
But Rice remained steadfast, insisting a halt to the violence without the permanent disarming of Hezbollah would be a mistake.

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 13:15 utc | 12

I read today said that Cheney and Rumsfeld have kept George in the dark in a major way.
Or maybe Bush just wasn’t interested.
Israel’s duplication of the American balls-up in Iraq is proof that stupidity is contagious.
Or it just may be proof of the authorship of American policy. Either we taught them, or they taught us. At this point in time, I would say the same authors wrote both war plans. Now, who are they?

Posted by: Ensley | Jul 26 2006 14:17 utc | 13

Speaking of apes —
I’m wondering how many of the guys pushing these wars were healthy, happy kids, and how many were unloved or even tormented by parents and/or classmates. The unloved child might grow into an adult for whom the admission of failure is nearly an existential threat.
So the unloved child who makes good as a surgeon, for example, might feel less able than a healthy person to admit surgical error, and might let a surgical error bleed on the table too long until great damage or death descends upon the patient.

Posted by: ferd | Jul 26 2006 14:36 utc | 14

Wasn’t it Israeli generals traipsing into the pentagon a few years ago? Can you imagine them saying, “No no no ,you got it all wrong, now watch this!”

Posted by: beq | Jul 26 2006 14:38 utc | 15

don’t burn yourself out, billmon. a couple posts a day is fine 😉

Posted by: b real | Jul 26 2006 15:21 utc | 16

ensley :
George Bush should never have taken the job. He knew he’d be in over his head. That’s why he took Cheney’s “advice” on who to appoint Vice President.
The same neocon team is running the show in the US and in Israel.
By default. With George absent, they’re the only ones there.

Posted by: John Francis Lee | Jul 26 2006 15:22 utc | 17

…unless the IDF can quickly batter Hizbullah to the point where it’s willing to agree, or at least tacitly accept, the presence of foreign peacekeepers on its turf.
Thanks to Iraq, the method of stalemating a far superior military force is now common knowledge. Quickly battering Hiz is less than a dream.
I also noted that Condi has offered medical/humanitarian aid to Lebanon. To wit, we now give military aid to Israel and medical aid to Lebanon. Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like we could save ourselves a lot of money there somehow.
I’ve also read that the missle technology Hiz is using comes from Iran, which comes from China, which comes from Israel, which comes from … wait for it … the US!
The invisible hand indeed.
.

Posted by: a-train | Jul 26 2006 15:24 utc | 18

Hans plays with Lotte, Lotte plays with Jane
Jane plays with Willi, Willi is happy again
Suki plays with Leo, Sacha plays with Britt
Adolf builts a bonfire, Enrico plays with it
-Whistling tunes we hid in the dunes by the seaside
-Whistling tunes we’re kissing baboons in the jungle
It’s a knockout
If looks could kill, they probably will
In games without frontiers-war without tears
Games without frontiers-war without tears

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 26 2006 15:28 utc | 19

If the Israelis had really wanted to merely degrade Hisbollah offensive capacity, they could have launched interdiction strikes 20-30 miles deep into Lebanon to prevent resupply of Hizbollah with rockets and conducted a clearance of the disputed region for offensive weapons. Instead, the Israelis launched a total air offensive all over Lebanon and delayed the ground offensive. The operational conduct seems completely at odds with tactical considerations (surprise against the intended targets) and strategic concerns (keeping the world community focused on Israel’s legitimate issues about de-militarizing Hisbollah’s positions in south Lebanon).
Could the neocons’ planning skills have infected the IDF this badly? It looks like a computer virus which has taken over a sytem and runs its captive like a robot. Or, one of those parasites which prompt insects to climb up to the top of flowers and grasses so that birds can eat them to further the spread of the parasite.

Posted by: PrahaPartizan | Jul 26 2006 15:28 utc | 20

According to the AP (Via NYT) As Many as 14 Israeli Troops Killed in Lebanon:

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — Hezbollah inflicted heavy casualties on Israeli troops as they battled for a key hilltop town in southern Lebanon for a fourth day Wednesday, with as many as 14 soldiers reported killed. Lebanese officials, meanwhile, confirmed that four U.N. observers were killed by an Israeli airstrike on their post Tuesday night.

This sure complicates things. Quickly battering Hezbollah seems even less likely now and no exit strategy in sight.

Posted by: eran | Jul 26 2006 15:45 utc | 21

The EU has been conducting peacekeeping missions (with mixed results) for the past three years, in Congo, Bosnia and Macedonia.
Posted by: Bistroist | Jul 26, 2006 6:28:47 AM | 6
The peacekeeping mission to DROC (Dem. Repub. of Congo) or Congo-Kinshasa is a 100% blue helmet force managed by the UN called MONUC (Mission de ONU du Congo). MONUC is the basically the UN organization that is serving as the government in Congo at the moment prior to the elections that will be next week. I won’t go into more details about the elections in Congo, but it is sad to me that more bloggers do not cover African affairs because there are a lot of issues there.
The peacekeeping mission performed by MONUC is mostly centered in the eastern Congo/Lake Kivu/Bukavu region where there are remnant Rwandan Hutu and Ugandan militias terrorizing civilian populations and destabilizing the region (the Hutu militias will not give up because if they come out of the mountains they will be sent to the War Crimes Tribunal in Tanzania). And the blue helmets are a rather modest force, however I don’t know their exact numbers off the top of my head. In advance of the elections, the UN asked European countries to provide additional security assistance and only the Germans responded. They sent about 600 soldiers that will only patrol and provide security in Kinshasa.
Currently the EU can organize peacekeeping missions, however to the best of my knowledge this is not happening in the Congo at present time, unless of course the German force there right now is acting under the EU umbrella and if that is the case, then I am totally wrong.

Posted by: Bubb Rubb | Jul 26 2006 15:45 utc | 22

Sorry can’t resist.

Posted by: Night Owl | Jul 26 2006 16:15 utc | 23

Remember the right-wing diatribes about ‘personal responsibility’ and the ‘blame game’, etc. Their version: abortion and homosexual marriage abortion caused 9/11, political descent is causing us to loose the War (in Iraq), homosexual marriage undermines straight marriages. This is coupled with the enormous sense of entitlement. I pulled myself up by my bootstraps. I worked hard and sacrificed for my wealth. I I I on and on. From their minds flows a constant stream of self-justification, self-congratulation and self-pity all designed for one primary objective: to take their focus off of themselves and on to others. They are truly big victims and big victimisers.

Posted by: Iron butterfly | Jul 26 2006 17:05 utc | 24

Currently the EU can organize peacekeeping missions, however to the best of my knowledge this is not happening in the Congo at present time, unless of course the German force there right now is acting under the EU umbrella and if that is the case, then I am totally wrong.
Yup – sorry, you are. There are 2000 EU soldiers including 280 Germans under EU command in Congo and a German reserve of some 500 in Ghana nearby. That is the “extraction force” that will be needed when the shit hits the fan. It will certainly do so after the election next weekend will somehow be “counted” in a way that the new dictator is the old dictator and pissed Congolese will take to the streets.

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 17:27 utc | 25

@ Uncle $cam:
and Kate Bush sings: “Jeux sans frontieres, jeux sans frontieres”
more Gabriel:
Lord, here comes the flood
Well say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again, the seas are silent
In any still alive
It’ll be those who gave their island to survive
Drink up, dreamers, you’re running dry.

Posted by: catlady | Jul 26 2006 17:42 utc | 26

It’s getting expensive for the Israeli without them taking ground. Meatgrinder guerilla warfare:
Eight IDF soldiers killed in bitter Bint Jbail fighting

Eight Israel Defense Forces soldiers were killed Wednesday and another 22 were wounded in fierce gun battles with Hezbollah in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbail.
…
The troops became involved in close-quarter fighting with Hezbollah guerillas in the early hours of Wednesday, despite taking control of the town a day earlier. The fighting has been going on since.
Five more IDF soldiers were wounded later Wednesday when Hezbollah guerrillas fired a Russian-made anti-tank missile at troops in the southern Lebanon village of Maroun Ras, which had been in Israeli hands for days, medics said.
…
IAF warplanes destroyed the offices of Hezbollah’s south Lebanon commander in Tyre on Wednesday, security officials and witnesses said. The building was empty but 12 people nearby were injured.
…
A separate IAF strike Wednesday hit a truck carrying medical and food supplies donated to Lebanon by the United Arab Emirates, killing its Syrian driver and wounding two others, security sources said.
The truck was destroyed just a few kilometres from Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria in the town of Anjar.

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 18:15 utc | 27

Marc Parent : Lebanon attack a joint Israeli-U.S. military operation: Dead UN soldiers had atrocoities info

The deliberate Israeli attack on a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) outpost in southern Lebanon was the result of that post gaining information of Israeli atrocities committed against the civilian Lebanese population.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 26 2006 18:18 utc | 28

I never thought I would really agree with Zbig:

Brzezinski stated: “I hate to say this but I will say it. I think what the Israelis are doing today for example in Lebanon is in effect, in effect — maybe not in intent — the killing of hostages. The killing of hostages.”
“Because when you kill 300 people, 400 people, who have nothing to do with the provocations Hezbollah staged, but you do it in effect deliberately by being indifferent to the scale of collateral damage, you’re killing hostages in the hope of intimidating those that you want to intimidate. And more likely than not you will not intimidate them. You’ll simply outrage them and make them into permanent enemies with the number of such enemies increasing.”

Posted by: b | Jul 26 2006 18:22 utc | 29

To drive home b, #29 on the Zbig…
Hostages? Indeed:

While the world is turning its back and closing its eyes

Reporters say they were able to hear voices screaming for help, moaning from pain, dying under the ruins, and no one was able to help because Israel is bombing any vehicle that moves and the people are not able to move the ruins of the houses to save the people who are buried underneeth.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 26 2006 18:42 utc | 30

re #28. how far fetched is it to stipulate the US could have been involved in ousting the UN from iraq? after all, no one has come forward to claim responsibility. neos love the UN so much they gifted bolten!

Posted by: annie | Jul 26 2006 18:43 utc | 31

Bubb @ 22, well, I was just rambling three countries off the top of my head, as it wasn’t really vital to my (admittedly rather inconsequential) point, but now you made me go and check. There are indeed about 17,000 troops in Congo under UN (MONUC) command, but also a separate EU force, about 2000 strong, as b pointed out @ 25.

Posted by: Bistroist | Jul 26 2006 22:45 utc | 32

The EU has been conducting peacekeeping missions
Though factual incorrect, the fundamental point of Billmons text still stands. If you want troops you have to adress Paris, Berlin and so forth, not the commission. On the other hand the sources of Billmons friend perhaps refered to getting peacekeeping troops from the EU countries, in which case there was nothing silly about it in the first place.
Look now what we done, we took a good text with punch and turned it into tiny boring corrects bits and pieces.
“It’s a madhouse! A madhouse!”
Made me laugh. Thanks.

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Jul 26 2006 23:54 utc | 33

@Nightowl,
Appreciate that.
It raises the issue of increased immigration [legal and illegal] to the US in the aftermath of major foreign policy fuckups, like making the world ‘safe for democracy’, spreading ‘free’ trade agreements, and fighting the war on terror.

Posted by: gylangirl | Jul 27 2006 1:37 utc | 34

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