WB: Breaking Wind – Moon of Alabama

July 27, 2006

WB: Breaking Wind

Billmon:

The ultimate result, of course, is a truly insane combination of bed partners, with the Iraqi prime minister giving a stemwinder of a speech against Zionist aggression in Baghdad one day, and then flying off to Washington the next day to vow enternal vigilance against terrorism in front of the most pro-Israel body on the planet — the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed guerrillas are killing Israeli soldiers in Lebanon while an Iranian-backed government in Iraq sends its troops out on patrols with the U.S. military, which is speeding bunker buster bombs to the Israeli military so it can go kill more Iranian-backed guerrillas.

Breaking Wind

Posted by b on July 27, 2006 at 06:55 UTC | Permalink

Comments

The strategic situation in the Middle East is eerily similar to the events that led Europe into war in 1914. Everyone saw it coming; everyone knew better; no one could step back from the precipice.
The War to End All Wars could much better be described as The War That Had To Be.
How did LLoyd George put it afterwards — “Every belligerent in 1914 took up arms, either to repel a direct invasion of its territory, or to fulfill a precise obligation which could not be abandoned without shattering consequences to national prestige, morale, and interests”
Wars are economic collisions and patriotic piracy, the kind of patriotism Mark Twain described as ‘the need to keep multitudinous uniformed assassins on hand at heavy expense to grab slices of other people’s countries.’
If you have not yet read Terance Ward’s presentation to the Association for Study of Peak Oil’s Fifth Annual gathering last week, you will find the full text here:
http://www.oilposter.org/blog/aspoblog.html
He sees an American attack on Iran as all but inevitable, since the energy coalitions shaping up in opposition to the USA leave little choice.
It is a war that has to be.
He delineates the “no choice” choices for each of the State and ethnic actors in the Middle East in detail.
We are slipping into war in the Middle East on an obscene carpet of blood and oil. No one can afford to step back from the edge.
Here it comes.

Posted by: Antifa | Jul 27 2006 7:34 utc | 1

They should also consider the sage advice of another Persian poet, Rumi, the best-selling poet in America today. Seven centuries ago, he wrote:
Out beyond the idea
Of right-doing and wrong-doing
There is a field.
I’ll meet you there

We have to try, we need to stop this rush to war before it becomes unstoppable. There are still some adults who can change this course. I believe we need to find them and try to convince them to abandon the madness. What other options are there? How will we explain to our grandchildren our role in this?

Posted by: dan of steele | Jul 27 2006 7:54 utc | 2

“How will we explain to our grandchildren our role in this?”
By the way things are going, there’ll be no explaining possible, humanity will wipe itself out.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 27 2006 8:30 utc | 3

Those Peak Oil enthusiasts want us to get used to the phrase “it’s inevitable” so that when they try to push the war through, we’ll all feel too exhausted to scream bloody murder.
But we’ve already been this way, and Israel’s tough experience in Lebanon is fresh reminding that war isn’t always simple. War in Iran is not inevitable. The U.S. has established positions in Iraq that are well scoped out, and extremely vulnerable to inside betrayal by people sympathetic to Iran. I wouldn’t predict Dnieper, but a new Tet wouldn’t look a whole lot like victory to the videoheads who still support this war so long as it looks like fun to push the buttons.
and, no, I think the Navy still doesn’t acknowledge its need to defend properly against small craft.

He sees an American attack on Iran as all but inevitable, since the energy coalitions shaping up in opposition to the USA leave little choice.
It is a war that has to be.

It only “has to be” so long as everyone is licking the boots of the man who says “has to be”. And that man is really starting to age a lot in the pictures we see of him. Which tells me that he is running into people who scream back at him.
Energy coalitions do not summon war in the same way that treaty obligations do. The analogy is false, and bellicose. Possibly interested, no?

Posted by: citizen | Jul 27 2006 8:34 utc | 4

No one can afford to step back from the edge.
Also not true. While I will agree that great fortunes will be lost by highly connected individuals (no, corporations don’t threaten politicians, people do), fortunes are also lost when a nation goes to war and creates a coalition that defeats it. Ignorance = Overdetermination. People can choose between hardships. And they are doing so now in ways that threaten this leadership’s grip on power. Will they blow up the world to save their repuations, these short-term capos? Doesn’t fucking matter. They, and the rest, can still afford to step back from the edge.
Just because one has no faith in our leadership does not make a good reason to deny that we really can choose.

Posted by: citizen | Jul 27 2006 8:44 utc | 5

That’s supposed to read:
“Ignorance≠Overdetermination”

Posted by: citizen | Jul 27 2006 8:45 utc | 6

Who is that guy that Antifa linked to. I googled him up, and he’s half-Iranian. Who is paying him how much for that stuff?

Posted by: jj | Jul 27 2006 8:54 utc | 7

Back to Billmon’s post:
It seems clear that Osama and Zawahiri’s pronouncements ALWAYS support Bush policy interests. Well, as they say, once a member of the family, always a member of the family.
And I would put much more credence to the concept of Negroponte’s death squads, run out of its franchise, the Interior Ministry, fomenting sectarian strife on purpose, than arcane mythologies drawn out of a camel’s hindquarters propagated by another wholly owned franchise. Ahem…

Posted by: BMOC | Jul 27 2006 9:01 utc | 8

(IRAQ)
And now the leather-covered sphere came hurtling through the air,
And Casey stood a-watching it in haughty grandeur there.
Close by the sturdy batsman the ball unheeded sped—
“That ain’t my style,” said Casey. “Strike one!” the umpire said.
From the benches, black with people, there went up a muffled roar, Like the beating of the storm-waves on a stern and distant shore;
“Kill him! Kill the umpire!” shouted someone on the stand;
And it’s likely they’d have killed him had not Casey raised his hand.
(LEBANON)
With a smile of Christian charity great Casey’s visage shone;
He stilled the rising tumult; he bade the game go on;
He signaled to the pitcher, and once more the dun sphere flew;
But Casey still ignored it and the umpire said, “Strike two!”
“Fraud!” cried the maddened thousands, and echo answered “Fraud!”
But one scornful look from Casey and the audience was awed.
They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain,
And they knew that Casey wouldn’t let that ball go by again.
(IRAN)
The sneer is gone from Casey’s lip, his teeth are clenched in hate,
He pounds with cruel violence his bat upon the plate;
And now the pitcher holds the ball, and now he lets it go,
And now the air is shattered by the force of Casey’s blow.
Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,
But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out.

Posted by: anna missed | Jul 27 2006 9:30 utc | 9

@jj — it’s true that Terence Ward is half Irish; it trouble me a bit, too.
His father (Richard A. Ward) was an environmental geologist who raised his kids in Saudi Arabia and Iran during the 1960’s. They all got kicked out with the Revolution, and got raised in America after that. Terence has settled in Berkeley, and is far left, politically.
He wrote a book in 2003 about his own family’s return to Iran to find an old family friend. Quite an excellent portrait of a complex culture and nation.
Aside from being half Irish, he seems an astute and caring human being . . .

Posted by: Antifa | Jul 27 2006 11:20 utc | 10

So here comes the wind: Al-Zawahiri urges attacks on Israel

In a taped message broadcast on Aljazeera, Ayman al-Zawahiri said al-Qaeda would not stand by while “these [Israeli] shells burn our brothers” in Lebanon and Gaza.
He called on Muslims to join forces and fight what he called the “Zionist-crusader war” against Muslim nations.
“Oh Muslims everywhere, I call on you to fight and become martyrs in the war against the Zionists and the crusaders,” the Egyptian born former doctor said.
“The war with Israel does not depend on ceasefires… It is a jihad for God’s sake and will last until religion prevails … from Spain to Iraq,” al-Zawahiri said. “We will attack everywhere.”
The deputy to Osama bin Laden wore a grey robe and white turban during the statement. A picture of the World Trade Centre on fire was on the wall behind him along with pictures of two fighters.
“The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli, but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price,” al-Zawahiri said.
The statement was the first from al-Qaeda to comment on Israel’s offensive in Lebanon which began after the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid by Hezbollah.
Al-Zawahiri has evaded capture since US-led forces brought down the Taliban government in Afghanistan in 2001 following the September 2001 attacks on the US.

Posted by: b | Jul 27 2006 11:43 utc | 11

If the nutbars attack Iran it may be more their natural gas reserves than for their oil. It looks like natural gas scarcity will take down the U.S. before oil does. And they may be under time constraints because of the length of time it takes to develop this stuff.

Posted by: Tim | Jul 27 2006 12:56 utc | 12

“He sees an American attack on Iran as all but inevitable, since the energy coalitions shaping up in opposition to the USA leave little choice.”
This is like saying Hitler had to attack the Soviet Union because Germany’s need for living space left him “little choice.” I don’t imagine he meant it that way, but if the USA is going to launch an aggressive war to make the world safe for American SUV owners, it ought to be clearly labeled as such.

Posted by: billmon | Jul 27 2006 14:23 utc | 13

I find it difficult to believe that anyone sane believes that an attack on Iran will do anything but be the worst possible of all triggers for the economy. Iran undoubtedly will be doing something with the Straits of Hormuz; result: $150-200/bbl oil if we’re lucky.
I know the neocons et al. will blether on incessantly about how this makes shale oil and tar sands economic enough to develop, but the problem isn’t the long-term price: it’s the short, sharp price spikes that will do the most damage. We’ve got some stuff in the National Reserve, but that can only hold the US for so long. Basically, we’d be in the situation of having to get the whole thing over with and the oil shipping again within a very tight time frame. Given how the whole Iraq plan has worked out, I think anyone who believes we can hold to any schedule at all is totally delusional.
And we have no planning for this, none at all. We’re not even talking about the what-if situations if anything goes wrong, or if China decides to start playing its cards, or….
So I ask, have our leaders gone completely insane?! Bush and the neocons will rule over a broken US, a broken economy, and a broken military.
Maybe it is true that all empires in the end run mad.

Posted by: tzs | Jul 27 2006 17:25 utc | 14

Al’Q-Cia’duh has outlived its usefulness. Binny did a good job as poster boy terrorist before 9/11, appearing on practically every mainstream TV station in the US. This particular incarnation of the muslim terrorist threat was an outcome of US backing of jihadists, which it funded and armed, in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan (Chechnya?), etc. There was a lot of money to be had, in return for doing America’s bidding, and leaving Saudi alone.
Finally, weak and dependent, unable to protest, it stood in as patsy culprit – as did Saudi Arabia, a US client state who agreed to the deal – for the atrocity of 9/11. (Other interpretations are possible but that one will do for now.)
The US (.. Israel, anyone) has never fought Al-Q. There is nobody there to fight. Nor has the US pursued Bin Laden in any meaningful way. To this day people doubt that Khalid Sheik Mohammed was captured by the US. In any case, nothing about him has been made public. Ramsi Bin al Shib is a mystery as well. Then there is Moussaoui; possibly two people, caught and tortured, one tried (Moussaoui.) The trials of the ‘Hamburg Cell’ – the Germans took it serious, for obvious reasons – deflated rapidly.
– – Zarqawi’s 100’s of lieuntenants don’t count – just as the prisoners in Gitmo don’t count, many were bodies sold for booty, deluded religionists or stranded tourists.
Three people do not a terrorist movement make. A few suspect audio communications (usually judged fake by those competent to judge) or stunningly clumsy videos (the fat Binny) don’t help much either.
Hizbulla, on the other hand, is the ‘terrorist’ organisation that has killed the most Americans. The US leadership knows that perfectly well. They don’t forget.

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 27 2006 17:34 utc | 15

OK, you did read it here first, but I don’t have the initials PhD after my name, so it doesn’t really count.
hey it does really count. i always feel a tinge of guilt spitting out my cocktail on my keyboard @2 am over your humor (blitzin’ Egyptian ,Mutt and Jeff ,cyber-jihadistan) while the world is burning btw
paranoia and endless suspicion, and such emotions are totally out of place in a discussion of Middle East politics. Ahem.
totally dude, i couldn’t agree more.
Hizbulla, on the other hand, is the ‘terrorist’ organisation
AQ is the peanut appetizer, hezbollah is the molotov cocktail. an enemy we can get reelin’ drunk over because they are reelin’ real, preparation for the main course. color me mildly hallucinogenic.

Posted by: annie | Jul 27 2006 18:16 utc | 16

Maybe it is true that all empires in the end run mad
and after the collapse, the ruins of this one will, fittingly, be covered in poison ivy

Posted by: b real | Jul 27 2006 18:28 utc | 17

heh Annie. Me Ice with White Wine.
It is so confusing because it has little to do with religion, ethnicity, or sects.
It has to do with power, money and oil.
Life and survival.
Each faction will join to or support another whenever it suits, taking a leaf, btw, out of the American book: Despots who give us oil are cool, real leaders who one can kissy-kiss at the White House…etc.
Boiling dissidents in pots (Uzbekistan)? Pipelines are more important. Military aid!
The Iraqi Gvmt. is not only a puppet Gvmt crushed by an occupier or a hegemon – it is a collection of individuals who miraculously have joined the global Mafia-type elite and been given a kind of temporary pass to join. They live abroad – afaik all families are away. (?) Their only motivation is greed, status and money, business.
Stabs at stability have to be made, because without it, no long terms plans can be made. Whatever it takes, as the masters say or advise… Meanwhile, even if nothing works out, there is plenty of cash lying about to be picked up, one way or another. While pretending anguish and the weight of responsibility.
Failure – on a leather sofa with clinking ice drink in a crystal glass in the heart of London – is perfectly comprehensible.
This is new – nothing like 1914.

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 27 2006 18:34 utc | 18

@anna missed #9
really nice work … thank you

Posted by: crone | Jul 27 2006 20:42 utc | 19

yes yes..nice one anna missed #9

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jul 27 2006 20:58 utc | 20

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