WB: Big Muddy – Moon of Alabama

July 24, 2006

WB: Big Muddy

Billmon:

Dr. van Creveld, more than most, should understand where that logic ends in this kind of war: in defeat or genocide. For some time now, one of my biggest fears has been that the neocons and their helpmates will finally drag America into a situation in the Midlde East where those are the only choices. The last twelve days seem to have taken us — or at least our Middle East proxy — another step in that direction.

Big Muddy

Posted by b on July 24, 2006 at 06:36 UTC | Permalink

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Israel Targets Gaza Weapons Facilities

Israel bombed buildings in the Gaza Strip on Monday which the army said were being used by militants to make rockets for attacks on the Jewish state.
Israel warned residents to leave the buildings before the air strikes to try to avoid civilian casualties.
One of the targeted warehouses was being used by the Islamic Jihad militant group to manufacture and store missiles and ammunition, the Israeli army said. Palestinian sources confirmed that the group had been using the storage site.
Israel also hit a facility used by Hamas to make rockets, the army said.
In its more than three-week operation against militants in Gaza, the Israeli military has killed around 115 Palestinians, the majority of them civilians.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 7:07 utc | 1

First serious critics of the IDF and cabinet are appearing within Israel:
A voluntary ‘putsch’

Even if we assume that the price to be paid by the home front was clear to the cabinet, it has exposed the citizenry to real danger in exchange for what has been presented as the removal of a future threat ? but without providing a possibility of conducting a public discussion on it.
Armies are criticized because the excess of power that they accumulate enables them to dictate steps of political significance during a time of crisis. In these situations, military contingency plans become the principal alternative available to the politicians, which is why they tend to accept the army?s viewpoint. But this time we have before us a particularly extreme case. Not only was the military plan the only one, but the political leadership voluntarily relinquished its duty to discuss it thoroughly. This places political thinking, to which military thinking is supposed to be subordinate, in a particularly inferior situation.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 8:14 utc | 2

We discussed the poisoning of Arafat, when he became “inconvenient”. Did it occur to anyone to at least wonder, if when the plan that’s been worked on for the last yr. – to go back into Lebanon – was presented to Sharon, just maybe he took one look & said “been there done that”. And the NeoNuts in DC & Tel Aviv said No One stands in the way of our wet dreams…and Instant Karma zapped Dear Arik, who astonishingly as Head of State was given medication by the legendary Israeli doctors that was known would cause a stroke…but maybe he really was hot for another Debacle in Lebanon & the doctors truly screwed up…I just wouldn’t bet a dime they’d let him stand in the way of their wet dreams…

Posted by: jj | Jul 24 2006 8:30 utc | 3

Speaking of Sharon, who hasn’t been conscious in any way we know how to measure, nevertheless is suddenly w/in a few days of dying. Kidney probs. have developed – a sign that the end is near…unless the family decides to try dialysis in an effort to forestall the inevitable…(story in haaretz)

Posted by: jj | Jul 24 2006 8:46 utc | 4

On Billmon – The Israeli request for “NATO troops” is exactly the strategy you describe. As soon as NATO troops would be there, Israel would try everything to make them do their fighting.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 11:27 utc | 5

Escape Route Is a Path of Destruction

The missiles came without warning, fired down from a brilliant summer sky — another round of terror for the dwindling, increasingly desperate civilians stuck in the Dante-esque landscape of south Lebanon.
The Shaita family was struck in their minivan as they fled their abandoned village. The Srour family, vacationing here from Germany, came under fire a little later. Then there was the family from Qoleili; they had abandoned their patriarch’s body in a fruit orchard to drive north, only to come under attack themselves.
The three families were among those who suffered death and dismemberment as Israeli warplanes struck civilian vehicles attempting to navigate the bomb-rutted roads of southern Lebanon on Sunday. At least four people were killed and dozens wounded as they tried to escape the fighting in their cars and vans; at least five such attacks occurred near Tyre. A Lebanese journalist also died in the road strikes.
The Israeli military said Sunday it was possible that the civilian vehicles had been mistaken for cars carrying Hezbollah fighters and weapons.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 11:37 utc | 6

Intel assets burned?
In Beirut, more than 20 people have been arrested on charges of marking buildings for Israeli bombing runs, Lebanese security sources said. If the detainees are indeed spies, the apparent ease of their detection and arrest could indicate they were rushed into action by their handlers. Israel had no comment.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 24 2006 13:03 utc | 7

Just read the peters piece Billmon linked to. So he thinks the IDF lost unless the start a massive ground invasion.
The first part is right. Israel has lost this war it started unnessessarily. The second part is wrong. A massive ground invasion to do what?
There is no good answer to that unless to commit a massive genozide.
Interesting how today’s easy fabrication and proliferation of rockets has changed the strategic balance. Israel has no way to turn the clock back on that one. The only way is to make peace with it’s neighbours. When the current loss has sunk into the minds of the Israeli, they will hopefully be more inclined to work on that.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 13:30 utc | 8

From Lebanon: Southern villagers run gauntlet in search of refuge

The narrow roads that meander through the valleys and undulating chalky hills east of Tyre were a place of terror and death Sunday, with Israeli helicopters attacking civilian vehicles fleeing Israel’s onslaught against South Lebanon.
“Today is the day of the cars,” says Dr. Ahmad Mrowe, director of the Jabal Amal hospital in Tyre. “It’s been very bad.”
By early evening, the Jabal Amel Hospital alone had received 41 wounded, most of them serious, according to hospital sources, all of the casualties thought to be civilians seeking refuge north of the Litani River after heeding Israeli warnings to leave the area before the onslaught intensifies.
…
In the Horsh district outside Tyre, an aerial bomb had gouged a deep crater in the middle of the wide road, blocking passage. A short detour down a lane and through an orange orchard led back to the main road. But there were more craters, perhaps one every kilometer, most of which were passable by inching around the rim of the hole.
…
Abbas Shayter, 12, his naked upper body speckled with dried blood, said that the village had been instructed by the Israelis to leave and his family had been waiting for transport.
“Someone came for us and we drove with other cars out of the village,” he said. “We were trying to keep up with the others when we were hit. He said that his grandmother, uncle and another man had been killed.
…
A UNIFIL officer said that the Israelis had told them they would not hinder cars travelling north on main roads. But the overwhelming evidence Sunday suggested that cars were being attacked regardless of their occupants and direction of travel.
“They have been hitting civilian cars all over the place,” said Peter Bouckart of Human Rights Watch, who had just returned to Beirut from Tyre. “I have been in many war zones, but this is one of the most dangerous places I have seen.”

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 14:00 utc | 9

These Haaretz interviews give some insight to Israeli (here mostly likud side) strategic thinking:
What will happen next?

A world-renowned expert on Lebanon, Kramer is a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a former director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.
[Q]: What is the way to end the crisis? And can Israel defeat Hezbollah?
“Ending the crisis is obviously not an end in itself. The objective has to be to reduce Hezbollah to a negligible factor in larger calculations, to degrade and deplete its capabilities, to the point where it’s about as significant a constraint as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or Jordan. It will take some time to reverse the years of neglect, and Hezbollah will not allow the halo around it to be smashed without fighting back. But Israel has a U.S. license to take its time now and get it right, and it would be foolish not to use it.
…
“At any moment in time, it is Israel that can turn Nasrallah either into a cinder or a shadow figure like Osama bin Laden, reduced to sending defiant missives from some basement or cave. And Israel can scatter the big chiefs of Hezbollah like the United States scattered the Taliban. This has to be the objective – bin Ladenization of Nasrallah, Talibanization of Hezbollah – and it is not beyond reach. Of course, bin Laden and the Taliban still exist, but they aren’t a regional or global factor. That is the objective here as well.
…
[Q]: Do you expect this crisis will tear apart the fragile fabric of Lebanese society?
“Of course, no one faction in Lebanon is in a position to disarm Hezbollah, and neither is the government. Only Shiite opinion can achieve this. So it is up to Israel to demolish Hezbollah’s argument that its arms deter Israel. Israel must demonstrate the opposite: that Hezbollah’s arms invite Israeli attack, especially against Shiites. Only if the Shiites themselves realize this, and only if they become the main source of criticism of Hezbollah’s strategy, will Hezbollah feel compelled to modify it. This will not happen overnight; it could take months or years.
…
[Q]: In your opinion, can the mistakes of the past be rectified today, more than 20 years later?
“Yes. Hezbollah started to believe its own propaganda. Israel can and should attack and diminish Hezbollah and bring about its demise as a significant militant organization.”
…
According to G., who retired from the Mossad a few years ago, the confrontation with Hezbollah is largely a propaganda battle and psychological warfare.
…
[Q] But we have lost the psychological battle in any event, haven’t we?
“Not necessarily. It depends on whether we will be able to implement effective psychological warfare that will generate ‘spontaneous’ internal opposition to the ruling leadership in Hezbollah and lead to their physical liquidation or their exile to Iran.”
[Q]: How can that be accomplished?
“We must conduct a crafty, sophisticated campaign. With foxes we shall play the fox. Our ability to decide this campaign, and perhaps future campaigns, too, depends in part on guile, which is the art of hiding our flaws and of revealing and cultivating the weakness of our enemy. The creation of disinformation. The creation of a real or imaginary feeling in an organization that took pride in compartmentalization and in cohesion, that in fact, it is as full of holes as a sieve. To make even Nasrallah watch his guards suspiciously. To create a feeling of physical insecurity and loneliness for the hierarchy of the organization and their families, because loneliness is the mother of all fears. To foment internal disputes and an atmosphere of betrayal, because there is no knife as sharp and poisoned as betrayal.”

Not very smart strategists in my view.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 14:54 utc | 10

Interesting commentary from Debka.

There is no doubt that the Israeli army is badly in need of a success – and not only to impress the Americans. Israel’s home front, though solidly behind its servicemen, needs to be assured that the war is on course and will be fought “until the job is finished.” This is the mantra heard up and down Israel, most insistently from the one-third of the population taking the punishment of lives lost or disrupted and homes destroyed by daily rocket attacks, with very little complaint.
This assurance is beginning to wear thin as the Hizballah rocket blitz intensifies day by day. Saturday, they shot a record 160 rockets at dozens of towns and communities. Sunday, July 23, the ball bearings packed in the Katyusha warheads punched hundreds of holes in a car and a workshop, killing two men on the spot. Sirens were heard for the first time in Binyamina, Zichron Yaacov and Kfar Ada, 70 km from the Lebanese border and the deepest south yet. The buildings of Israel’s third largest city, Haifa, and many other towns of northern Israel, are severely battered and bear the scars of blasts which scatter the metal balls designed to maximize human injuries.
The week’s grace that Rice appears to be granting the Israeli government and armed forces for bringing the war to a successful conclusion is also a boon for Tehran, Syria and Hizballlah. It gives them time to engineer a nasty surprise to greet the US secretary’s second visit, hitting Israel at the very moment that the diplomats weigh in to start the process for ending hostilities. Israel will then be told to hold back on reprisals. This dead-end maneuver will be painfully familiar to the many peacemakers who tried their luck with the Palestinians, notably Condoleezza Rice’s predecessor, Colon Powell.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 24 2006 15:59 utc | 11

JJ I too wondered if Sharon would have agreed to this particular adventure and I thought no. I was also struck by the fact that Hariri was killed, and that he might have been one of the people who could have prevented this. (? others will know better…) Combined with the irony, of course, that Hariri re-built Beirut.
But that is I feel too conspiratorial. The main point is, if one has a paranoid mind set, an army cult, and tons of arms and soldiers getting bored with taking pot shots at Palestinians, a weak and inexperienced Gvmt., something cracks. I say ‘weak’ in part to mean lacking popular support, as I don’t believe those polls -95% of Israelis approve of attacks – that stuff – for a minute.
The explosion of violence – in Gaza, under the radar right now; spectacularly, in Lebanon; in Iraq, as business as usual but quite a bit worse; and in Afghanistan, between opponents who calculate carefully and indulge in measured sorties, actions, etc.; are all eruptions that signal the by now evident failure of the Iraq invasion.
The image is the death throes of an octopus that lashes out ineffectively here and there. Too optimistic, I’m afraid, but it is, as the magazines might say, tempting and seductive.
The USuk is faced with the fact that agression and domination for their own sake may not turn out well when plans C, D, and E were not made and implemented, and that, at the end of the day, media gloss and TV propaganda aren’t quite enough to control the sheeples, and that the International community, subjugated and controlled, dismissed in a way, has snake eyes under the obligatory bonhomie.

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 24 2006 16:09 utc | 12

Combined with the irony, of course, that Hariri re-built Beirut.
Upps- Hariri was criminal who first did buy destroyed quarters in Beirut, then as politician urged the Lebanes to take up billions in debt to rebuild the city (some quarters especially) and then as a boss of a Saudi building empire let his company do all the rebuilding. The Lebanese will pay for all the loans and debts the next three generations.
Hariri didn´t rebuild Beirut. He robbed it.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 17:54 utc | 13

Ok b, orgainsed the rebuilding in his own way…that was how he organised his power, circles, clout..I didn’t know there were huge loans behind all of it.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 24 2006 18:42 utc | 14

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 24 2006 18:43 utc | 15

AFP: Israel warns it will hit 10 buildings for every rocket fired

The Israeli air force is under orders to blast 10 buildings in south Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, for every rocket the Shiite militant group fires at the Israeli port of Haifa, army radio said Monday.
“Army chief of staff Dan Halutz has given the order to the air force to destroy 10 multi-storey buildings in the Dahaya district (of Beirut) in response to every rocket fired on Haifa,” a senior air force officer told the station.

Posted by: b | Jul 24 2006 19:42 utc | 16

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