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OT 06-58
Finally got to read Hersh`s new piece. Some essence from LAST STAND – The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy.
U.S. Strategic Command, supported by the Air Force, has been drawing up plans, at the President’s direction, for a major bombing campaign in Iran.
Inside the Pentagon, senior commanders have increasingly challenged the President’s plans, according to active-duty and retired officers and officials. The generals and admirals have told the Administration that the bombing campaign will probably not succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program. They have also warned that an attack could lead to serious economic, political, and military consequences for the United States.
A crucial issue in the military’s dissent, the officers said, is the fact that American and European intelligence agencies have not found specific evidence of clandestine activities or hidden facilities; the war planners are not sure what to hit.
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A former senior intelligence official told me that people in the Pentagon were asking, “What’s the evidence? We’ve got a million tentacles out there, overt and covert, and these guys”—the Iranians—“have been working on this for eighteen years, and we have nothing? We’re coming up with jack shit.”
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I was told, the current chairman, Marine General Peter Pace, has gone further in his advice to the White House by addressing the consequences of an attack on Iran. “Here’s the military telling the President what he can’t do politically”—raising concerns about rising oil prices, for example—the former senior intelligence official said. “The J.C.S. chairman going to the President with an economic argument—what’s going on here?”
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A retired four-star general, who ran a major command, said, “The system is starting to sense the end of the road, and they don’t want to be condemned by history. They want to be able to say, ‘We stood up.’ ”
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In contrast, some conservatives are arguing that America’s position in Iraq would improve if Iran chose to retaliate there, according to a government consultant with close ties to the Pentagon’s civilian leaders, because Iranian interference would divide the Shiites into pro- and anti-Iranian camps, and unify the Kurds and the Sunnis. The Iran hawks in the White House and the State Department, including Elliott Abrams and Michael Doran, both of whom are National Security Council advisers on the Middle East, also have an answer for those who believe that the bombing of Iran would put American soldiers in Iraq at risk, the consultant said. He described the counterargument this way: “Yes, there will be Americans under attack, but they are under attack now.”
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“Iran can do a lot of things—all asymmetrical,” a Pentagon adviser on counter-insurgency told me. “They have agents all over the Gulf, and the ability to strike at will.” In May, according to a well-informed oil-industry expert, the Emir of Qatar made a private visit to Tehran to discuss security in the Gulf after the Iraq war. He sought some words of non-aggression from the Iranian leadership. Instead, the Iranians suggested that Qatar, which is the site of the regional headquarters of the U.S. Central Command, would be its first target in the event of an American attack.
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A retired American diplomat, who has experience in the Gulf, confirmed that the Qatari government is “very scared of what America will do” in Iran, and “scared to death” about what Iran would do in response. Iran’s message to the oil-producing Gulf states, the retired diplomat said, has been that it will respond, and “you are on the wrong side of history.”
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In late April, the military leadership, headed by General Pace, achieved a major victory when the White House dropped its insistence that the plan for a bombing campaign include the possible use of a nuclear device to destroy Iran’s uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz, nearly two hundred miles south of Tehran.
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“An event like this doesn’t get papered over very quickly,” the former official added. “The bad feelings over the nuclear option are still felt. The civilian hierarchy feels extraordinarily betrayed by the brass, and the brass feel they were tricked into it”—the nuclear planning—“by being asked to provide all options in the planning papers.”
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The new bombing concept has provoked controversy among Pentagon planners and outside experts. .. “The Air Force is hawking it to the other services,” the former senior intelligence official said. “They’re all excited by it, but they’re being terribly criticized for it.” The main problem, he said, is that the other services do not believe the tactic will work. “The Navy says, ‘It’s not our plan.’ The Marines are against it—they know they’re going to be the guys on the ground if things go south.”
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“It’s the bomber mentality,” the Pentagon consultant said. “The Air Force is saying, ‘We’ve got it covered, we can hit all the distributed targets.’” … “The Chiefs all know that ‘shock and awe’ is dead on arrival,” the Pentagon consultant said. “All except the Air Force.
“Rumsfeld and Cheney are the pushers on this—they don’t want to repeat the mistake of doing too little,”
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The Iranian regime’s calculations about its survival also depend on internal political factors. The nuclear program is popular with the Iranian people, including those—the young and the secular—who are most hostile to the religious leadership. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, has effectively used the program to rally the nation behind him, and against Washington. Ahmadinejad and the ruling clerics have said that they believe Bush’s goal is not to prevent them from building a bomb but to drive them out of office.
Several current and former officials I spoke to expressed doubt that President Bush would settle for a negotiated resolution of the nuclear crisis. A former high-level Pentagon civilian official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the government, said that Bush remains confident in his military decisions. The President and others in the Administration often invoke Winston Churchill, both privately and in public, as an example of a politician who, in his own time, was punished in the polls but was rewarded by history for rejecting appeasement.
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The Israelis have insisted for years that Iran has a clandestine program to build a bomb, and will do so as soon as it can. … Israeli intelligence, however, has also failed to provide specific evidence about secret sites in Iran, according to current and former military and intelligence officials. … at a secret intelligence exchange that took place at the Pentagon during the visit, the Pentagon consultant said, “what the Israelis provided fell way short” of what would be needed to publicly justify preventive action.
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If the talks do break down, and the Administration decides on military action, the generals will, of course, follow their orders; the American military remains loyal to the concept of civilian control. But some officers have been pushing for what they call the “middle way,” which the Pentagon consultant described as “a mix of options that require a number of Special Forces teams and air cover to protect them to send into Iran to grab the evidence so the world will know what Iran is doing.”
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Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the I.A.E.A., said in a speech this spring .. “When you push a country into a corner, you are always giving the driver’s seat to the hard-liners. . . . If Iran were to move out of the nonproliferation regime altogether, if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon program, we clearly will have a much, much more serious problem.”
Some notes:
– The nuke option is off the table (for now)
– The negotiations are fake
– The military ex Air Force (the evangelicals!) is against any attack on Iran, but will follow its orders.
– Nobody, not even Mossad, has any hint of a clandestine nuke program in Iran. No wonder, there is none.
Posted by: b | Jul 3 2006 15:12 utc | 10
A lot more facts about the Hadji Girl incident at Mahmudiya have surfaced. Given that releasing this now, fits the standard ‘news managing’ way of dealing with ‘black eyes’ such as rape and murder by the US military, it is even more important people keep themselves informed of exactly what did happen.
The news management model runs like this.
Let the bare bones of the story out then wait while speculation tries to fill in the gaps. The speculation will eventually include some wildly off the mark and despicable guesses. Then step in and deny the most despicable under oath if need be, or even better, with a ton of witnesses. Make no elaboration apart from denial and disproving. At this stage it is still vital not to let the true story out.
Then about a week or so later when the ’embarassment’ has been discussed to death with the rebuttals ‘beaten up’ by speculation as much as the reality has been, most will be ‘sick’ of it, and many will have concluded that the whole affair either didn’t happen, wasn’t as bad as ‘everyone said’, or is just too hard to know the truth of, then release the facts.
This Reuters story entitled
US soldier charged with rape, murder in Iraq does contain the facts. There are a number of somewhat ‘glossed over’ facts here too. Important because they demonstrate that not only are the public going to be treated to the ‘one bad apple’ bullshit when there were at least three other members of the 101st Assholes n Rapists with the accused when these sex crimes were perpetrated.
“Discharged soldier Steven Green, 21, appeared in court in Charlotte, North Carolina, on a charge from a federal prosecutor in Kentucky that he went with three others to a house near Mahmudiya, just south of Baghdad, to rape a woman there.”
But and even bigger indication that there was a complicity in these crimes and their cover-up is hinted at with the word ‘discharged’.
Further on in this article we learn:
“Court documents said he had since been discharged from the army due to a “personality disorder”.
Now I don’t know how senior you have to be in the US military to get a soldier discharged due to a ‘personality disorder’, but I would imagine that a sergeant can’t pull that one off as if he could you’d have to think that there wouldn’t be too many soldiers left in Iraq apart from some very rich sergeants.
THe same likely applies for the junior officers as well. In fact I’d reckon that it would probably take quite a lot of effort by a colonel to get a bloke sent home with the sort of no harm, no foul pass that Green got.
You’d think a colonel; or whatever rank of senior officer that did circumvent “Catch-22” by giving an insane person the discharge that any sane person would request, would only do so if he were reasonably cognizant of the facts.
Once the senior officer did become ‘cognizant of the facts’, he behaved just like a good little western bureaucrat. He did as he was trained and swept the facts under the carpet by discharging the miscreant. Make the asshole someone else’s problem. Not only avoiding responsibility but also endangering his own men.
There is little doubt that the ‘payback’ in the form of the torture and mutilation of two fellow members of the 101st and Green’s subsequent arrest are connected:
“The inquiry was launched after two soldiers from the 502nd Infantry Regiment came forward late last month, just after two men from the unit were kidnapped and killed near Mahmudiya.”
A small digression. Does the Amerikan Empire employ no anthropologists or other experts in the mores of cultures other than egocentric consumerism?
The reason I say that is because the ‘payback’ tradition is entrenched in a great many cultures. Despite the bad press it gets from fans of centralised law enforcement models, it is an effective way of maintaining order. While it is true that it can lead to feuding, that usually only happens when the society is already under other pressures. For as suicide bombers or any properly trained soldier demonstrates many people can be persuaded to sacrifice themselves for something be it material or an ideal.
Even so not that many would favour sacrificing their family. This is why the Israelis bulldoze the family home of Palestinian freedom fighters, and why the Palestinian soldier’s unit provides a gift to his family.
Customary law was re-introduced to parts of Australia at the request of the families of perpetrators, not the victims family.
If an asshole murders someone in a drunken rage or whatever in an Aboriginal community, then the police come in and arrest the perp, that leaves the murderer’s family very exposed. This because family of the victim are duty bound to extract payback. If the murderer isn’t there, they will claim payback from the closest relative. So nowadays the NT police send the perp back to his community upon conviction. Following a usually quite ceremonial meeting, the victims family spear him, most often in the leg. He is patched up then taken to prison, sometimes over the protests of even the victim’s family who want him back in the community to which he now belongs once more. Spearing in the leg was could be fatal without antibiotics, or if the spear hit the femoral artery, which was less common.
So Iraqi payback is far milder and more in keeping with a community comprised of intermingled clans than Australian Aboriginal culture where the laws are based on nomadic lifestyles and communities of a single clan or sub-tribe.
The fact that the US just ignores it though is mind boggling. They think they can fix the world with a ballot box and a civics lesson?
That sort of stuff goes out the window when confronted with the horror of four members of your family being raped, murdered, possibly burned to death and two of them are children!
Something else which should have given the colonel or whoever pause is that payback isn’t a right, it is a duty and the bigger and more powerful your clan is the important it is that the duty is seen to be fulfilled. Now the young girl’s full name was Abeer Qasim Hamza al-Janabi.
al-Janabi or ‘of the Janabi clan’. The Reuters article says “. . . the family were Sunni Muslims from the powerful Janabi tribe.”
Anyone interested in exactly how connected the victims of this massacre were should do a google on Janabi. As well as being a substantial sunni family who have achieved in most sectora of 20th and 21st century arabic society, the al-Janabi’s appear to be intelligent and humane which is why the continual bleating by the US that the dismemberment of two members of the 101st tribe is totally unconnected with this massacre hasn’t provoked further attacks on members of the 101st.
Because if the mutilation was tribal justice yet is denounced as not being such, denounced so much that people believe that it wasn’t, then in many cultures that would mean further justice would have to be exacted; until it became accepted by all that messing with al-Janabis carries a heavy price.
The media along with the occupation authorities has reserved a special shame for the primary victim. This bullshit is a piece of amerikan elite repression that is normally only conferred on young criminals in the US.
Abeer Qasim Hamza, the 15 year old girl who had been subjected to persistant sexual bullying and harassment by ‘her deliverers of freedom’ at the 101st checkpoint up the road from her house, is constantly described as an adult. I guess to some that may make the crime that was committed upon this child somehow less reprehensible.
The amazingly mature and sensible 15 year old girl that I’m lucky enough to have as a daughter baulks if I describe her as a child, but she is.
She is still capable of the missteps that any child who hasn’t yet grasped sufficient skills and knowledge to survive outside the protection of her family unit can make.
Where I come from, such a person is called a child.
There is no doubt she is less of a child than her 13 year old brother, however she still deserves the consideration and understanding that a caring society should give any child.
The same applies for Abeer Qasim Hamza. The US media describes Ms Hamza as being 20, the local mayor says 16, but her uncle Omar Janabi, who the late Mrs Hamza el-Janabi had told of the harassment of Abeer at the checkpoint, tells us she was only 15.
I think her uncle is more likely to be correct than her murderers’ apologists, or the local politician, don’t you?
Her age makes no difference to the foulness of the crime, but it does provide a sickening insight into the twisted and unabashed attitudes that the empire’s functionaries hold.
I suppose we could be relieved that the apologists didn’t try to place the mantle of adulthood upon little Hadeel Hamza who was only 7 when she and her family were massacred. SEVEN gettit! What were the other three 101st assholes doing when their ‘personality disordered’ comrade was killing her? Why didn’t “three of our finest’ or whatever mendacious superlatives the exceptionalists confer upon the mercenary force of oppressed herds of repressed cannonfodder stop this slaughter or die trying?
Of course adulthood is frequently conferred on the little children murdered by empire.
For example the three little girls blown apart by 500lb bombs when Zarqawi had been adjudged to have outlived his usefulness are stilled called adults even though at least one was still in diapers.
The next time any pontificating prat starts in on the global war on terror, or the necessity of ‘the sunni’ or ‘the iraqi’, ‘the iranian’, or worst of all ‘the arab in the street’ to learn whatever, remember who it is this asshole is really talking about.
It’s not some rough jowled, turban wearing, gun toting fanatic. It’s Abeer Hamza aged 15, daughter of the el-Janabi clan, walking down a dusty road holding the hand of her sister Haleel aged 7. Too young to have an inkling of the terrble evil that lies behind the eyes of the strange men at the top of her street, Haleel is giggling at their stupid banter.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 4 2006 3:17 utc | 21
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