(Billmon and I posted in parallel on the issue. So here is the novelty of a combined thread.)
Billmon:
Bernhard:
After a preparing and devastating air campaign, Israel is now entering Lebanon with ground troops.
The strategic target seems to be to clear some 20 miles of Lebanese land of any Lebanese human and to establish and hold a line at the Litani River. This is a repetition of the 1978 Operation Litani which, at that time, was aimed against a Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) force in South Lebanon. Israel more or less did win that tactical move, but made no strategic gain and the costs on both sides were high.
Unlike the PLO, essentially refugees not really liked by the Lebanese, Hisbollah is an indigenous force. So the outcome may very well differ this time. In response to Israel’s action in 1978, the UN set out resolution 425, demanding a retreat of Israel behind the international accepeted border. Israel did fullfill that resolution’s demand – in June 2000 – except for giving up the Sheeba Farms. This, and Lebanese prisoners in Israel’s hands, gave/give Hisbollah a permanent issue to keep the struggle going.
(The Katami river, like the Sheeba farms area, is a major water source in the general arid area. It does have real strategic value. So maybe Lebanon will get it back in 2028.)
In May 2006 Israel assassinated two leaders of Islamic Jihad in Sidon, Lebanon. This led to a few small rockets being fired at Israeli military outposts and responding serious air attacks. The crisis was finally ended through UN mediation. It was, to my knowledge, the first open Israeli action in Lebanon since 2000 and the starting point for today’s hot conflict. (BTW: Did you see this mentioned in any recent MSM article?)
While watching the current developments, in horror, I am sure the big chessboard is set up for an even deadlier game. This is not about a two Israeli soldiers taken POW. This is not about Lebanon or Hizbollah at all.
The current war is a small proxy for the fight between the US and Iran, a third world county by any means, and even bigger, between the US and anybody else about the control of the most important world energy ressources, i.e. direct or indirect control over all of the Middle East.
I have no idea what the next steps in that war may be, but some incident that will lead to a near term involvement of a very, very weak Syria is likely. From there on, your guess is as good as mine.