Billmon:

The Times Gets a Clue

Billmon:

V. Hirohito Watch

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IV. More Grist for the Pander Mill

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Not for the first time I ask: Have Israeli’s political and military leaders completely lost their marbles?

III. Reckless Disregard

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II. Volunteers of America

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[T]he Israelis are doing their level best to make it appear as if nothing has changed and they’ve put nothing on the table, except a fig leaf for Madame Supertanker to use to cover her diplomatic nakedness.

 

Perhaps this is true — I may have underestimated both the cynicism of the Israeli PR apparatus and the domestic political pressure to achieve something that can be called a victory before the clock runs out. Or, it may simply be elaborate bluster to cover the fact that the clock has already run out. We’ll see.

I. Not Ready to Make Nice?

Billmon:

Life of the Party

Billmon:

Life Imitates Insanity

Billmon:

We’ll see how things play out, but right now it looks to me like the Israelis and Madame Supertanker are trying to throw in the towel — without admitting that they’re throwing in the towel. This particular war (knock on wood) may almost be over.

War By Tantrum II

Billmon:

Days of Darkness

Billmon:

There is, however, a big risk, which is that Sheikh Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader, will soon feel compelled by pressure from his own clueless hotheads to unleash the Tel Aviv rockets. This would force Israel to respond with some sort of savage escalation, and since the only available instrument is pure terror bombing [unless Jerusalem wants to take the war to downtown Damascus] the civilian death toll would probably soar even higher.

Welcome to the "new" Middle East — the geopolitical equivalent of the "new" Coke. The recipe may be different, but it still tastes like blood.

The Show Must Go On

Other news & views – open thread – …

Billmon:

It is in that sense — the sense Clausewitz used — that Israel is losing, and has probably lost, this war. There’s always the possibility that the IDF will dream up a bold, imaginative stroke to redress the balance, like the brilliant ’73 counterattack that trapped an entire Egyptian Army on the banks of the Suez Canal. But this IDF isn’t showing that kind of creativity and daring. It’s also not clear what kind of a stroke against a guerrilla army like Hizbullah could give Israel the smashing success it needs in the limited time left. ..

II. The Definition of Losing

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I. Hirohito Watch

Billmon:

Dark Horse

Billmon:

But the fundamental difference of interest (existential versus optional) remains, and the isolationist tide continues to build. This wouldn’t be a problem if the allies were winning, but the losses are mounting up. As in any marriage, adversity doesn’t decrease the chances of divorce, it increases them.

A Parting of the Ways

Billmon:

What is clear is that the failure of Israel’s blitzkrieg (and at the moment, it looks like a catastrophic failure, at least politically) will have enormous repercussions in the Middle East, just as the downfall of Louis Napoleon had in late 19th century Europe. By betting the ranch on a quick, decisive victory, the Anglo-Israeli alliance has committed both a crime and a mistake. The architects may escape punishment for the former, but I think the latter is going to come back to haunt them, and probably very soon.

II: The Debacle

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I. Boys Town

Swamp Dreams IV
(detail)

by b real

Swamp Dreams IV,
III, II,
I (full view, ~ 280 kb each)

Swamp Dreams – Part 1
The Artists (full view – 180 kb)

Billmon:

II. Another Atrocity

I. Unsound Methods

Billmon:

Hirohito Watch

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Bernhard:

The US military has opened a new war on Al Sadr and his Mahdi militia. It is the Iraq part of the Oceania moment – declaring a new war on the Shiite militia instead of the old war on Sunni dead enders.

In this war the US is taking out the leaders of Sadr’s militia one by one and prepares, by rushing more soldiers to Baghdad, for the expected reprisal and a third all out fight against Al Sadr in a second phase. 

Based on interviews with Khalizad and other officials David Ignatius reports on, and is sceptical of, this importent shift in the US strategy in Iraq. Let’s try to pick this apart.

Ignatius on phase 1:

Cont. reading: Killing Death Squad Leaders +

Billmon:

II. Not By the Sword Alone

I. How To Win Friends and Influence People

Open thread … other news & views …

Billmon:

I think David Frum badly needs to sit down and re-read his own book. Maybe then he’ll remember that Iraq is a stunning success — a role model for the war on terrorism, the key to democracy in the Middle East, the cure for the heartbreak of halitosis and a lot of other wonderful things, although I can’t think of any more at the moment.

David should be proud of the role he played in making this foreign policy triumph possible. He should give himself a manly pat on the back. And then I think he ought to take a 45 caliber pistol, lock himself in his office, and "do the right thing."

Axis of Weevil

Billmon:

II. Hirohito Watch

I. Grapes of Wrath

Billmon:

It has a nasty edge of hysteria to it, a compulsive need to prove to the Arabs, and the world, that Israel still can and will stomp on anyone who gets in its way. The fact that Hizbullah is now demonstrating the limits of Israeli power — or rather, the limits on how much Jewish blood Israel is willing to spend to exercise that power — is only making matters worse. The Israeli leadership elite is starting to sound like the semen-crusted violence addicts at Little Green Footballs. Given how much real violence the generals and politicians can inflict, that’s a sobering thought, to say the least.

A Blight Unto the Nations