The Shrinking U.S. – Moon of Alabama

June 13, 2006

The Shrinking U.S.

Journalist and blogger Helena Cobban has a longer piece on The incredible shrinking U.S. power at Salon (you will have to click through one ad to read it in full).

She has been right in many of here articles. The analysis of this one is wide ranging and bold. But I see no obvious flaws in her conclusion:

I believe that the domestic and global factors now pushing Washington toward undertaking a complete (or near-complete) retreat from Iraq are now so powerful that this retreat will take place before the end of the Bush presidency. But the U.S. will not merely be retreating to the position it occupied on March 18, 2003; the shrinkage of U.S. power around the globe will be much broader than that. There is one very simple reason for this: The U.S. will need the cooperation of other powers if the pullout from Iraq is to be orderly.

[…]

So as the U.S. withdraws from Iraq, there may be some developments in international politics that will strengthen global stability. […] [T]he gross power imbalance between the U.S.’s 300 million people and the 6 billion humans who are not U.S. citizens may finally shift toward a more egalitarian, and therefore more just and stable, position.

[…]
I realize there are many Americans who are not as ready as I am to welcome the prospect of a diminishment (or, as I would say, a rectification) of the disproportionate amount of power our nation has been able to wield in world affairs over the past 60 years.

[…]
Today, a clear majority of Americans judge that invading Iraq was the wrong thing to do. A similarly clear majority say the administration should set a timetable for withdrawal. This willingness to challenge the Bush people’s spin on the situation in Iraq is a welcome sign of increased public understanding, but it does not signal any automatic readiness to challenge the principle of U.S. exceptionalism more broadly. Grappling with that issue is, I believe, our next great challenge as a citizenry; and it is a challenge that the events of the next few years will almost certainly force us to confront head-on.

That will be a very interesting, and hopefully salvaging, confrontation.

Posted by b on June 13, 2006 at 19:05 UTC | Permalink

Comments

b
fanatastic emission on cities:metropolis chunking & dubai) on arte right now

Posted by: r’giap | Jun 13 2006 19:24 utc | 1

The power will shrink alright but not the way Helen imagines it. The withdrawal from Iraq will happen only after the loss of global power, which is still several years away. This administration will run the USA into the ground first because it is personally more profitable for them to keep the war going.

Posted by: gylangirl | Jun 13 2006 20:18 utc | 2

short of a bobbit-type intervention, dick will never completely pull out of iraq, and even then, what’s to prevent these old f_ckers from skipping over any refractory period & immediately going on to screw w/ someone else? shrinking? isn’t this the team who said that deficits don’t matter & that mocked democratic (little “d”, not the big one, cuz we all know there wasn’t really much of the latter) opposition to their policies as focus groups? after a surgeon analyses and interprets, he sometimes must pick up the knife the cut.

Posted by: b real | Jun 13 2006 20:52 utc | 3

@gylangirl – I agree that they would keep going if they could. But in my view they have already liquidated most of the wealth of the country – reputational, financial, intellectual, civil, and cultural.
THE DECISION: whether to increasingly militarise the entire country in hopes of appropriating enough of the world’s remaining resources to fuel the machine for just .. a … little …. bit ….. longer. Or to back off from the precipice, hunker down, and deal with the radically lower standard of living (and political fallout) that would imply. Unfortunately the US polity and economy is in such ratshit condition now that the fall could come at any moment, and will accelerate once it begins.
Look at it this way (as I’m sure the leaders of competitor countries are): Right now the US is burning through blood and treasure at an incredible rate just to tread water globally, on credit that it only has because of the off-chance that it will actually end up controlling middle-east oil. The longer the rest of the world can keep the US in this no-gain, all-pain position the weaker it will eventually be. As long as Iran is intact the US is not going to end up unopposed in Iraq, even if they could subdue the Iraqis, which I doubt.
If/when the US falls, it will be decades before it even stabilises, much less recoups. It’s either a 1,000 year Reich, or – have a good look at France. Personally, I prefer France, even with the sour grapes about the empire that might have been.

Posted by: PeeDee | Jun 13 2006 22:03 utc | 4

a “withdrawal” of american forces from iraq will not occur. that’s just crazy, particularly given what we know about base construction in iraq.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 13 2006 22:27 utc | 5

An orderly withdrawal is inconceivable with the Radical Republicans in charge. Whack a mole has turned into a clash of civilizations. American privatization of Iraqi oil industry forced Iraqi resistance to defend their homeland’s resources cutting off supply. Instead of lowering oil prices the invasion increased them. With a billion people on each side of the Christian Muslim divide, and dim-witted fundamentalists in charge on both sides, a great deal of blood and money will be lost in the new partition of the monotheist religions. There are no rational solutions to a Holy War once unleashed.

Posted by: Jim S | Jun 14 2006 3:50 utc | 6

In my more fanciful moments I conceive of a situation where US pressure/bombing on Iran causes an Iranian invasion of Iraq, which provides a perfect pretext to withdraw the troops. Not a chance, though, I say on a moment’s reflection – that would be a direct challenge to America’s pride and belief that it’s Never Lost A War(tm).
But I can’t see how they’ll withdraw short of something apocalyptic.

Posted by: Rowan | Jun 14 2006 3:58 utc | 7

Global Image of the U.S. Is Worsening, Survey Finds

Favorable views of the United States dropped sharply over the past year in Spain, where only 23 percent said they had a positive opinion, down from 41 percent last year, according to the survey. It was done in 15 nations, including the United States, this spring by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.
Other countries where positive views dropped significantly include India (56 percent, down from 71 percent); Russia (43 percent, down from 52 percent); and Indonesia (30 percent, down from 38 percent). In Turkey, only 12 percent said they held a favorable opinion, down from 23 percent last year.
Declines were less steep in France, Germany and Jordan, while people in China and Pakistan had a slightly more favorable image of the United States this year than last. In Britain, Washington’s closest ally in the Iraq war, positive views of America have remained in the mid-50-percent range in the past two years, down sharply from 75 percent in 2002, before the war.
Support for the fight against terrorism led by the United States is also down, Pew found.

Posted by: b | Jun 14 2006 5:09 utc | 8

Also from the above poll and a bit frightening

Only 75 percent of Americans had heard reports of abuses at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and at the American naval base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, while 90 percent of Western Europeans and Japanese had heard about them.

Posted by: b | Jun 14 2006 5:11 utc | 9

Rowan, if the US bombs/attacks Iran, we should be prepared to right off the entire expeditionary corps in Iraq. The Iranians are likely to cut the supply line to the American troops in Iraq and any Iranian troops moving into southern Iraq will seal off the American forces in central and northern Iraq from Kuwait and withdrawal. The S’hiite Iraqis will just make any retreat that much more difficult when they support their coreligionists from the east.
The real question is whether the American commanders decide to fight through Syria to the Mediterranean and extraction in their desperation to get out of the killing field that will be Iraq.

Posted by: PrahaPartizan | Jun 14 2006 11:35 utc | 10

The coming defeat
and withdrawal of the US from Iraq,and many other places in the Middle East ,may look like Saigon in 1975.
How will this effect it great friend and ally Israel…after all most US policies in the Neo=Con era have been devised for Israel’s benefit.
Israel will then be alone,hated and despised as it is in the Arab,it may have darl days ahead…all richly deserved !

Posted by: Brian | Jun 14 2006 14:05 utc | 11

@brian
just like the us, israel is a deeply divided country. my folk have lived there on and off for most of their lives and a few years ago (after rabin was assasinated) have decided that, as jewish people, they could no longer support where the country was heading, and returned to their homeland. they are lucky b/c they could do that. there are many isarelis who’s wish is to have a lasting peace with its arab neighbors and are willing to go back to ’67 borders but for one reason or another are “stuck” there. unfortunately policy is not being dictated by the people but by crooked politicians. the victims though, are the people. in this case arabs, israeli and americans; military and civilians. no one deserves to have harsh days ahead as you mention. harsh days ahead means plenty of suffering and i think it’s about time this nonsense stops. no one deserves “it”.
what ireland is/was for england, iraq is and will be for the us: a catch 22. there is no such thing as an honorable withdrawal. if england withdrew some of the worst religious violence would have happened in ireland and the same will happen in iraq. at the moment the us presence maintains a semi status quo between shiite and sunni just as the english presence did in ireland between catholics and protestants. the us can’t leave. period. unless of course the strategy was to divide and conquer but that seems to be far fetched considering where things stand.

Posted by: charmicarmicat | Jun 15 2006 5:13 utc | 12

Listening to the French Radio, and reading the Swiss Press, and perusing e mails from friends in S America, several different themes recur:
1) The US is trapped in Iraq, and when the cat is away the mice will play (Bresky fooled the Russkies into Afghanistan and now the US have been fooled twice..)
2) China and India are the new looming superpowers – at least one now has to consider there are three superpowers, etc.
3) Cultural products, brand, life style, domination – is finished.
It seems to be that the Americans, counting on adulation, and well versed in disgust (to poorness, to dirt, to the unsucessful, to the non pc, to whatever..) have finally provoked a reaction of disgust towards themselves..
Or so I am told – I’m just reporting here – but it interesting enough I feel.. I have heard endless stories of Koreans watching Brazilian soaps, people refusing to buy Coke, forgetting about Superman, saying the US and the Nazis were one, refusing to go study in the US, removing US products from the shelves (with stealth, as usually only boycotts of Israeli goods are pc), etc. etc.
These things are minor on the grand geo-political scale; note, they all come from the right-thinking middle (or lower middle) class, to make it short.
~Just one anecdote.
At my work, 5 years ago, it became forbidden for the educational system to run activities or examinations or whatever on a Saturday. (I live in Switzerland.)
Saturday was, and still is in a way, a traditional work day. Until 10 – 15 years ago children went to school on Satudray. Gvmt and business always spilled over on Sat – that was the way things went. There was always Sat. to catch up.
Better org. and rise in productivity made it possible to slowly phase out Sat. work, Sat school, Sat. meetings.
But to have it forbidden! In an underground way! By powers ‘we’ know nothing about! By pols who won’t show their face! By interfering people who don’t respect others’s cultures! By…etc.
Three weeks ago, some of us raised the question of Sat once again. Due to extreme pressure with locales, work schedules, voting, etc.
We were told by the ‘powers that be’ that from now on:
Hmmm… The ban on Saturday work had been lifted, and we could schedule anything we liked on that day.
Some people were stunned. They fought hard, to the max, to not give in to that interference, and failed, and suddenly – poof! And who knows why! It just happens!
One young woman in black leathers stood up and said… well I will skip it …it was not pretty.
I personally did not understand what had changed.
Switzerland continues to sell arms to Israel, though on occasion it is picky, suspends, makes gloomy faces. I haven’t followed the latest, as it is not reported in the press, it takes effort to find out, and who knows.
After, people went and partied.
It is a very local and particular example.

Posted by: Noisette | Jun 15 2006 15:53 utc | 13

The Salon link at the top of this article doesn’t work (anymore?), and reports 404. However, this link from Helena Cobban’s blog does. (Link rot: the bane of the internet.)

Posted by: Araneidae | Jun 18 2006 18:12 utc | 14

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