A quite speculative thought: Is Rice on the way out? I thinks she is.
At the end of March, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to Europe and had unusual, one-on-one conversations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. She also attended a meeting in Berlin on Iran at which the Russian and Chinese representatives denounced the idea of sanctions to halt Tehran’s drive toward a nuclear weapon.
Rice returned to Washington with a sobering message: The international effort to derail Iran’s programs was falling apart. Her conclusion spurred a secret discussion among Rice, President Bush, Vice President Cheney and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley: Should the United States finally agree to join the Europeans at the negotiations with Iran?
The only reason the Eurpoeans got involved in this at all was to prevent the U.S. from attacking Iran. The mess in the Midddle East is alredy terrible. To add to this by including Iran would be worse for Europe than any assumed nukes in Iranian hands ten years from now.
Rice Plays Down Iran’s Threat to Curb Oil Exports
Ms. Rice helped engineer a policy shift by Washington last week that would allow it to join in the talks with Tehran, conducted up to now by Britain, France and Germany. She was said to fear that the international coalition on Iran was close to collapse.
China and Russia had appeared increasingly resistant to calls from the United States and others to impose sanctions if Iran continued its enrichment activities.
Ms. Rice would not say explicitly today that Russia and China had agreed to impose sanctions if Iran rejected the latest offer, but she said on Fox News that "we are absolutely satisfied with the commitments of our allies to a robust path."
Obviously neither China nor Russia did agree to ANY sanction, which means no effective sanctions on Iran at all. But worse, the Europeans did not agree to this either. Why is the offer to Iran kept secret? "We" offer them a light water reactor for $3 billlion plus while the Russians are building one for $1 billion? "We" offer them five years of fuel supply when the economic valible case of a reactor is only justifiable at 30+ years of operations?
From the viewpoint of Cheney’s neocons Rice has played her card and failed. They will Powell her now. That move might come faster than anybody anticipates today.
For Bush, Talks With Iran Were a Last Resort
In the end, said one former official who has kept close tabs on the debate, "it came down to convincing Cheney and others that if we are going to confront Iran, we first have to check off the box" of trying talks.