So I guess the real question is not whether the neocons have the will or not – it’s whether they have the political capital, right? As a friend puts it:

“Well, though sabres be rattled
Submitted by Robert Wilkinson on Wed, 04/12/2006 – 12:38pm
and the yeehaw cowboys talk tough, they don’t have the equipment, troops, money, world backing, or resolve to make that ill-conceived move. They’ll hem and haw and stall and threaten and spy, and then maybe 2007 or 2008, or they may just turn loose some Israeli blackops to go in under cover of anonymity and do the job. Or even paid mercenaries. No markings on the plane, you know the drill, lots of plausible deniability.
It would be very misguided for them to strike in the open, since 1) it’s an election year and the voters’ mood wants certainty, not more war with an unknown quantity, 2) it would rile the entire Muslim world, which they’d rather pick off one at a time, and 3) it would seriously compromise our relationships with Europe, Russia, and China, not something they want to do right now, for economic and energy reasons. The dollar will crash and the price of gasoline will double if we attack Iran, and Bush and the Congressional Repubs don’t want that, nor have to justify to the voters that they voted for escalating an unending war that will leave more thousands of native sons and daughters dead or maimed, physically and psychologically.
America has been told the troops will be brought home and it’s all good. Expanding the war to a powerhouse like Iran would be pure folly and kill us economically, and the CFR knows it.

Howard “Quacks like a Duck” Fineman outlines the same basic thing as above. Say what you want about Howard, he is usually a decent bellweather for how the powerbrokers of the (bi-partisan) money party want things to go down.
I’m just sayin’ that’s where the disagreement is – whether or not they can – not whether or not they would. Love to here some more analysis from thinking folks about that.
…and yes, either way I definitely recognize the importance of keeping the issue(s) front and center – if we can check a couple moves, here and there, maybe we can run out the clock. (well, at least as far as this administration goes)

Posted by: Caleb | Apr 20 2006 4:27 utc | 1