Groucho pointed to two papers by Anthony H. Cordesman. The first one was published December 31, 2002 and is titled:
Planning for a Self-Inflicted Wound: US Policy to Reshape a Post-Saddam Iraq (PDF).
The hardest part of war is often the peace, and this is particularly likely to be the case if the US goes to war with Iraq. It is not that the US is not planning for such contingencies; it is the quality of such planning that is at issue. Unless it sharply improves, it may well become a self-inflicted wound based on a series of “syndromes” that grow out of ignorance, indifference to Iraq’s real needs, and ethnocentricity.
The twenty some detailed "syndromes" include the:
* "We Know What We’re Doing Syndrome"
* "US as Liberator Syndrome" or "Best Case War Syndrome"
* "Democracy Solves Everything Syndrome"
* "Let’s All Ignore the State’s Present Role in the Economy Syndrome"
* …
He closes:
If we rely on miracles and good intentions, or act as occupiers rather than partners, we are almost certain to be far more unhappy on the tenth anniversary of the next war as we were on the tenth anniversary of the Gulf War.
Cordesman did look at the war planing and did forsee nearly all the mistakes that would happen during the War on Iraq. He missed a few though, like the contracter debacle and the pleight of the 35,000 foreign slaves they are using, so maybe even he was too optimistic.
In the second paper published on April 17, 2006, American Strategic, Tactical, and
Other Mistakes in Iraq: A Litany of Errors (PDF) he details some of the errors that have been made and sums up:
The US cannot go back and change its behavior in Iraq, and in many cases it cannot now compensate for past errors. Its best hope is to pursue the strategy it is already pursuing in spite of risks that at best offer an even chance of limited success.
There are two lessons to learn from this he says:
National security challenges cannot be "spun" into victory. They must be honestly addressed, hard decisions must be taken, and the necessary resources must be provided.
and
If the US is ever to repeat an experience like Iraq, or successfully fight what it
now calls the "long war" against terrorism and extremism, it needs ruthless self honesty
and objectivity.
He now has the record to prove he has been right in his warnings before the War on Iraq. Are there enough people in power in the U.S. administration that do learn his lesson and will act to prevent the War on Iran that is about to start?
As fauxreal pointed out, there is some movement in this direction, but the bamboozlement is getting stronger.
The "syndromes" may "win" again.