Groucho pointed to two papers by Anthony H. Cordesman. The first one was published December 31, 2002 and is titled:
Planning for a Self-Inflicted Wound: US Policy to Reshape a Post-Saddam Iraq (PDF).

The hardest part of war is often the peace, and this is particularly likely to be the case if the US goes to war with Iraq. It is not that the US is not planning for such contingencies; it is the quality of such planning that is at issue. Unless it sharply improves, it may well become a self-inflicted wound based on a series of “syndromes” that grow out of ignorance, indifference to Iraq’s real needs, and ethnocentricity.

The twenty some detailed "syndromes" include the:
* "We Know What We’re Doing Syndrome"
* "US as Liberator Syndrome" or "Best Case War Syndrome"
* "Democracy Solves Everything Syndrome"
* "Let’s All Ignore the State’s Present Role in the Economy Syndrome"
* …

He closes:

Cont. reading: The “Syndromes”

by fauxreal
stolen from a comment

I did read an interesting comment that bin Laden may have appeared to undercut the 60 Minutes appearance of Tyler Drumheller who put the case forward to voters that the Bush junta knew the reasons they gave for war were lies, and thus the invasion of Iraq was a violation of the Nuremberg Principles. (That thus is my conclusion, but one that flows naturally, imo, from a war based upon lies, dressed up as defense when it was, in fact, an act of aggression. Yo, Poland.)

Cont. reading: Drumheller

Billmon:

Threat Projection

Billmon:

II. Bladder Control

I.  Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

This is an unmodified part of a screenshoot of the current National News page of the LA Times website.

Funny how these two stories appeared right next to each other.

Now, who are these leakers? Should they not be fired too?

The C.I.A. would not identify the leaker, but several government officials said it was Mary O. McCarthy, a veteran intelligence analyst who until 2001 was senior director for intelligence programs at the National Security Council, where she served under Presidents Clinton and Bush.
…
Public records show that Ms. McCarthy contributed $2,000 in 2004 to the presidential campaign of John Kerry, the Democratic candidate.

But maybe they leaked for the right reason. Like in Good Leak, Bad Leak.

News & views …

Various portraits mixed form photos of yesterday’s visit of Hu Jintao to the U.S.

(bigger pic)

Update (Apr 22, 2006, 11:40 AM)

Hu’s visit to the U.S. was an embaressment, but not for China. The question is not about "ass-kissing China", but about decency. Wearing sunglasses, like Cheney did during Hu Jintao’s speech is an insult nearly anywhere in the world, though somehow, most Americans don´t get this.

Not giving Hu the honor of a full fledged state visit, as his two predesessors enjoyed, is without common reason. He didn´t get dinner, just lunch. The Chinese flag was not raised like foreign flags usually get raised when foreign chief of states, bloody dictators or elected leaders, visit the White House.

The Falung Gong journalist/heckler was known by the Secret Service to have heckled before. She wasn´t there by accident.

(BTW: Now even the left and the press is protesting that her ‘free speech rights’ are not honored while a foreign guest speaks. Falung Gong is a cult lead by a megalomanic homophobe that endangered the Chinese state. Would a German neonazi journalist have the right to heckle Merkel when she visits the White House?)

But let us point to the real problem. The U.S. owns the state of China about $200 billion plus in bonds. Maybe the same sum is owned to Chinese banks and private citizen in from of bonds an mortgage backed securities. The U.S. advises China to revalue the Renimbi and to consume less oil – neither will happen. To try to embarrass Hu into concessions like the U.S. did, immediately backfired. The way she looks, Rice did get that.

Indeed the combination of these advises is idiotic. A higher valued Renimbi would result in cheaper oil for Chinese consumers and thereby for higher oil consumption. But the real bad advise is the trick the U.S. pulled off against the Japanese and now tries to do on the Chinese.

In the 1980’s the U.S. pressed Japan to let go of currency controls of the Yen – they did so. The Yen did rise sharply and the Japanese suddenly felt very rich. An asset and property bubble followed and when that bubble, like all bubbles, inevitably deflated Japan felt into stagnation and only now is about to climb out of that state.

Did that help the U.S.? In shortterm it did. The U.S. had do work less to pay back their  Japanes owned bonds. But look at GM and Toyota now and see the longterm foolishness. The Japan did lose a lot of money and opportunity through that misguided revaluation. Why would China repeat that mistake?

As of China bashing my advice to the U.S. is easy. If you don´t like China to sell to the U.S. just stop buying. As an alternative introduce trade barriers and reap the consequences.

The problem is not China, the problem is overconsumption by the U.S. on the state and personal private level. Unless that stops, China will be the winner.

Billmon:

Oh when the frogs go marching out

Hip Hop

You really have to appreciate what Scott Ritter says in this recent interview with the San Diego Citybeat. Though I have to say, it is not only the Americans who have these reflexes.

Q: You’ve said Americans aren’t against the war in Iraq because it’s wrong; you say they’re against it because we’re losing. Is it just that Americans don’t like getting their asses kicked?

Cont. reading: Don’t Do It At All

Billmon:

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go scrape the rest of it off my shoes.

Profiles in Chicken Shit

Billmon:

II. If It Quacks Like a Duck

I. Happy Jack

Billmon:

Part of the problem is that it’s becoming harder and harder to tell where "domestic political agendas" leave off and messianic religious obsessions take over. It’s entirely possible that Bush’s repeated references to saving Israel are simply in his script — that talk of war in the Middle East, if not war itself, really is part of Rove’s cynical strategy for mobilizing the base. But I’m not sure how much comfort to take from that thought. To paraphrase the Frank Herbert quote I posted a couple of weeks ago: When politics and religion ride in the same chariot, there’s an awfully good chance that bodies will end up going under the wheels. And whether it’s the driver’s fault or the horse’s isn’t likely to matter to those who get crushed.

The Spiral Conflict

Other news and views …

by Malooga

A. Preamble

We are democrats and progressives [or were twenty years ago, before we climbed aboard the CIA payroll]. We propose here a fresh political alignment [Bedding down with right wing fascists, pretty fresh, huh?]. Many of us belong to the Left [or claim we do], but the principles that we set out are not exclusive. We reach out, rather, beyond the socialist Left towards egalitarian liberals and others of unambiguous democratic commitment. [I believe that Clinton called it triangulation.] Indeed, the reconfiguration of progressive opinion that we aim for involves drawing a line between the forces of the Left that remain true to its authentic values [As we define them to be.], and currents that have lately shown themselves rather too flexible about these values. [Who just might end up in Gitmo, if you get my drift.] It involves making common cause with genuine democrats [™], whether socialist or not.

Cont. reading: The Euston Manifesto – Bad Beer in a Bad Pub

Billmon:

Once you switch, you never go back.

Sanity is Optional

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: […] I think we just have to accept it, that people have a right to say what they want to say, and to have an acceptance of that and recognize that the terrorists, Zarqawi and bin Laden and Zawahiri, those people have media committees.
They are actively out there trying to manipulate the press in the United States. They are very good at it. […]
Rush Interviews Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld; April 17, 2006

One internal briefing, produced by the U.S. military headquarters in Iraq, said that Kimmitt had concluded that, "The Zarqawi PSYOP program is the most successful information campaign to date."
Kimmitt is now the senior planner on the staff of the Central Command that directs operations in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East.
Military Plays Up Role of Zarqawi; WaPo; April 10, 2006

So we know Zarqawi is comitted bullshit but still used. So what about bin Laden and Zawahiri is really real?

I don´t know. Do you?

Billmon:

.. Jimmy Carter didn’t nuke the Iranians ..

Peanut

Billmon:

[T]here is real risk that key players in the crisis — Iranian as well as American — are fundamentally misreading the situation. They may not understand that their counterparts on the other side are perfectly willing to escalate, because they actually want war, or at least are pulled in that direction by their own political and/or strategic dilemmas.

However, there is an even more terrible risk here, which is that both sides in this crisis may want a war, although for different reasons. And when both parties to a confrontation like this one want a war, they usually get one.

The Flight Forward, Part 2

Billmon:

"I trust I’ve made myself clear," McClellan added.

Autumn Leaves