Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 5, 2006
Iraqn

Some recent Iran related views:

Foreign Policy has a piece on the build up to War On Iran. Fool Me Twice, by Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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The vice president of the United States gives a major speech focused on the threat from an oil-rich nation in the Middle East. The U.S. secretary of state tells congress that the same nation is our most serious global challenge. The secretary of defense calls that nation the leading supporter of global terrorism. The president blames it for attacks on U.S. troops. The intelligence agencies say the nuclear threat from this nation is 10 years away, but the director of intelligence paints a more ominous picture. A new U.S. national security strategy trumpets preemptive attacks and highlights the country as a major threat. And neoconservatives beat the war drums, as the cable media banner their stories with words like “countdown” and “showdown.”

The nation making headlines today, of course, is Iran, not Iraq.

For months, I have told interviewers that no senior political or military official was seriously considering a military attack on Iran. In the last few weeks, I have changed my view. In part, this shift was triggered by colleagues with close ties to the Pentagon and the executive branch who have convinced me that some senior officials have already made up their minds: They want to hit Iran.

The problem, the writer thinks, is with the Democrats:

If diplomacy fails, the administration might be able to convince leading Democrats to back a resolution for the use of force against Iran. Many Democrats have been trying to burnish a hawkish image and place themselves to the right of the president on this issue. They may find themselves trapped by their own rhetoric, particularly those with presidential ambitions.

That may well be, but why would Bush ask Congress at all? Why not just start the bombing and wait for the Persians to retaliate. That retaliation then could be used to "ask" Congress for an all out war (and the draft that will be needed).

Steve Clemons believes the Israelis are, for once or for now, against an attack on Iran.

[O]ne of the take-aways from my recent Israel trip is that Israeli national security bureaucrats — diplomats and generals — have far greater confidence that there are numerous potential solutions to the growing Iran crisis short of bombing them in an invasive, hot attack.

But the zionist lobby groups do not agree. Clemons is citing Chris Nelson, the writer of the Nelson Report:

A hint of the sort of emotionalism the President is subject to may be seen in a full page ad in the N.Y. Times this morning (prominently paid for by The American Jewish Committee, oblivious to how it reinforces various heinous conspiracy theories) with an overlay map implying that future Iranian nuclear missiles would be able to strike deep into China, not just anywhere in Europe and the Middle East. . .and so, presumably, "proving" that an Iranian nuclear program must be stopped at all costs.

Another rather right-wing writer, also reports that the dices already have fallen.

A prominent ‘neocon,’ still in good odor at the White House and OSD (Office of the Secretary of Defense), speaking privately, assured us that by the time president Bush leaves office in January 2009, Iran`s nuclear weapons ambitions would be history.

Assuming tough sanctions — draconian or otherwise — don`t bring Iran`s mullahs to heel, we inquired, trying not to sound too wimpish, what would be Mr. Bush`s next step?

‘B-2s,’ this prominent armchair strategist replied. ‘Two of them could do the job in a single strike against multiple targets.’

The hawks have already made up their mind. What could hold them back? Ar their any sane wise men left to step in and do this?

Before the Middle East`s unfriendly volcano erupts again, it would behoove the National Security team to advise the president that kicking butt in Iran, like kicking Iraq`s gluteal region, triggers the law of unintended consequences.

Nice idea. But look who is there and weep.

Comments

Arkin

Isn’t it just a little transparent that a drumbeat of stories about the Iranian “threat” has begun?
In the world of threat manufacture, Iran has all the ingredients: a WMD-seeking, terrorist-sponsoring, military threat of a regime. With its torpedoes and naval mines and small boats and coastal artillery, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of the world’s oil transits daily. Iran could shoot its missiles at U.S. bases and oil refineries in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. Iran’s agents would attack at home. Iran is thought to already possess chemical and biological weapons. Iranian nuclear weapons, or so the story goes, lurk in the future.
No wonder to many in the administration, in the military, and in the Washington world of brilliant minds, armed confrontation with Iran is the necessary next step in the war against terrorism.

Posted by: b | Apr 5 2006 19:18 utc | 1

Real Men go to Khuzestan – a look at what one of the afore-mentioned “numerous potential solutions” may be. I really find it hard to believe this is actually happening.

Posted by: Sopor0qv | Apr 6 2006 1:06 utc | 2

Joseph Cirincione’s analysis is obvious. The only real question is, how can we, the American people claim to be bamboozled by the present regime and its complicit flacks in the MSM again?
How can we sit and watch, script in hand, the same lying march to aggressive war in the Middle East once again, just three years since the launch of the last juggernaut of jingo?
What will you tell your grandchildren when they as you, “Grand[mp]a, how could you have stood by and allowed that to happen?”, just as a generation of German children asked their grandparents a generation ago.

Posted by: John Francis Lee | Apr 6 2006 1:31 utc | 3

James Fallows in The Atlantic: The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq

in September 2004, that The Atlantic sponsored a “war game” to consider what choices the United States might have if the Iranian problem built to a crisis.

The experts disagreed on some details but were nearly unanimous on one crucial point: what might seem America’s ace in the hole—the ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations in a pre-emptive air strike—was a fantasy.

Every tool at Iran’s disposal is now more powerful, and every complication for the United States worse, than when our war-gamers determined that a pre-emptive strike could not succeed.

erhaps the American and Israeli hard-liners know all this, and are merely bluffing. If so, they have made an elementary strategic error. The target of their bluff is the Iranian government, and the most effective warnings would be discreet and back-channel. Iranian intelligence should be picking up secret signals that the United States is planning an attack. By giving public warnings, the United States and Israel “create ‘excess demand’ for military action,” as our war-game leader Sam Gardiner recently put it, and constrain their own negotiating choices. The inconvenient truth of American foreign policy is that the last five years have left us with a series of choices—and all of them are bad.

The central flaw of American foreign policy these last few years has been the triumph of hope, wishful thinking, and self-delusion over realism and practicality. Realism about Iran starts with throwing out any plans to bomb.

Posted by: b | Apr 6 2006 7:48 utc | 4

A NYT OpEd by the Iranian ambassador to the U.N.
We Do Not Have a Nuclear Weapons Program

THE controversy over Iran’s peaceful nuclear program has obscured one point in particular: There need not be a crisis. A solution to the situation is possible and eminently within reach.

Let me be very clear. Iran defines its national security in the framework of regional and international cooperation and considers regional stability indispensable for its development. We are party to all international agreements on the control of weapons of mass destruction. We want regional stability. We have never initiated the use of force or resorted to the threat of force against a fellow member of the United Nations. Although chemical weapons have been used on us, we have never used them in retaliation — as United Nations reports have made clear. We have not invaded another country in 250 years.

Pressure and threats do not resolve problems. Finding solutions requires political will and a readiness to engage in serious negotiations. Iran is ready. We hope the rest of the world will join us.

Lots of details in there that clear up the U.S. spin.

Posted by: b | Apr 6 2006 9:58 utc | 5

Forward: U.S. Officials Are Mulling Iran Strikes, Experts Say

Key players in the Bush administration think a military confrontation with Iran is unavoidable, leading to stepped up military planning for such a prospect, according to several experts and recently departed senior government officials.
Some of these observers stressed that military strikes against Iran are not imminent and speculated that the escalated war chatter could be a deliberate ploy to ratchet up diplomatic pressure on Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Still, they made clear, the tone in Washington has changed drastically.

Posted by: b | Apr 6 2006 19:16 utc | 6