Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 20, 2006
Don’t Do It At All

You really have to appreciate what Scott Ritter says in this recent interview with the San Diego Citybeat. Though I have to say, it is not only the Americans who have these reflexes.

Q: You’ve said Americans aren’t against the war in Iraq because it’s wrong; you say they’re against it because we’re losing. Is it just that Americans don’t like getting their asses kicked?

RITTER: I’m saying Americans don’t know enough about anything to have a well-informed opinion; this is all superficial. At the end of the day, yeah, we don’t like to get our asses kicked. We have a lot of national pride that’s based around the notion that we can kick anybody’s ass—we’re the biggest, baddest boys on the block. And in Iraq, we’re not winning, so a lot of Americans have their ruffles up. I guarantee you, had we invaded Iraq, had it gone easily—let’s say it went as easily as it appeared to go; we got rid of Saddam, we bring down the statue and peace and prosperity breaks out—there’d be a small, little element in the so-called anti-war movement; they’d be screaming about violation of law, etc. They’d be shouted down by the vast majority of Americans who would thump their chests with national pride and say, “No, we did the right thing. To hell with international law. We got rid of Saddam. We’ve instilled democracy. And it’s a good thing we did.”

Of course, things have gone sour, and now a lot of Americans are jumping on the bandwagon of “Hey, we shouldn’t have gone there.” But, again, at what point in time, I ask these newfound converts to the anti-war movement, did this become a bad war?

Like Ritter, this (pdf) study from the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, suggests, the mistakes were not troop sizes, or the dissemblance of the Iraqi army. The mistake was the idea of war itself.

Though the critics have made a number of telling points against the conduct of the war and the occupation, the basic problems faced by the United States flowed from the enterprise itself, and not primarily from mistakes in execution along the way. The most serious problems facing Iraq and its American occupiers– "endemic violence, a shattered state, a nonfunctioning economy, and a decimated society"–were virtually inevitable consequences that flowed from the breakage of the Iraqi state.
[…]
Rather than "do it better next time," a better lesson is "don’t do it at all."

I am not very optimistic, that this lesson has been, or will be learned. I would also suggest, that the War On Iraq is only part of a much bigger strategy, that includes Iran and Syria and finally, as explained her, the perceived arch rival China.

A real needless "Long War" that will be fought with even more kick-ass mentality and will be lost with a lot more whining than we are hearing now.

Comments

It’s naive to think the u.s. military lacks the means “to kick ass.” the u.s. can easily quicken the pace of slaughter, or more cunningly, chaos.
this isn’t germany 1943, or soviet union circa 1988.
I’m not convinced the occupation is a “failure” either, if failure means the disintegration of iraq into neolithic cave groupings is a threat to longterm garrisoned military presence of u.s. It all looks to me like iraq war according to hoyle.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 20 2006 20:16 utc | 1

actually, the historic analog of the present occupation is sykes-picot era french and british machinations in the levant and iraq. divide and conquer w/out threat of nationalist insurgencies, let alone a pan-arab liberation resistance.
and zalmay khalilzad is our te lawrence.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 20 2006 20:25 utc | 2

Iran, Syria, China, hah. We have no fucking money. How can you fight with no money?

Posted by: jdp | Apr 20 2006 20:27 utc | 3

I’m not convinced the occupation is a “failure” either
It was as a campaign, but it wasn´t in the eyes of the grand strategy of supremacy. There it is just a small step on a road that will take some 10-20 years to walk.
Germany in 1943 was already an obvious failure, but was not percieved as such. The US in 2006 -in my view- is in about the same position.

Posted by: b | Apr 20 2006 20:29 utc | 4

we own the air, dude.
and, we’re not “broke.” the guy holding the gun to the head of the preschooler, demanding the latter’s lunch money, isn’t “broke.” you’re only broke when you don’t have leverage. and we got leverage.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 20 2006 20:35 utc | 5

Would someone please explain E-85 flex fuel. It is now all over my part of the country. Am I susposed to buy a brand new gm vehicle? Whose money is behind it?

Posted by: Craton | Apr 20 2006 20:39 utc | 6

george carlin kinda nailed part of it after the first gulf war

…we like war. We’re a warlike people. We can’t stand not to be fucking with someone. We couldn’t wait for the Cold War to end so we could climb into the big Arab sandbox and play with our nice new toys. We enjoy war.
And one reason we enjoy it is that we’re good at it. You know why we’re good at it? Because we get alot of practice. This country is only 200 years old, and already we’ve had ten major wars. We average a major war every twenty years, So we’re good at it!
And it’s just as well we are, because we’re not very good at anything else. Can’t build a decent car anymore. Can’t make a TV set, a cell phone, or a VCR. Got no steel industry left. No textiles. Can’t educate our young people. Can’t get health care to our old people. But we can bomb the shit outta your country, all right. We can bomb the shit outta your country!
Especially if your country is full of brown people. Oh, we like that, don’t we? That’s our hobby now. But it’s also our new job in the world: bombing brown people. Iraq, Panama, Grenada, Libya. You got some brown people in your country? Tell ’em to watch the fuck out, or we’ll goddamn bomb them!

now shrub, who has arguably not been very successful in most anything he’s done – depending on whose portfolio you’re looking at – is doing his darndest to make it clear to everyone that we’re no longer even good at war (and we really weren’t as good as we told ourselves & others in the first place). and it’s doubtful that any lessons learned will have much of a counter influence on good old ‘merikan xenophobia for very long – say by the time aipac hilary & obomba take over the emporers – make that – executive office, given our clinically irrevocable historical amnesia. to paraphrase mad albright, what’s the point of having this insidious military-industrial complex if we’re not going to abuse it for the financial benefit of a relative handful of alpha males (+ condi)?
heard an interesting interview today on kpfa’s program living room w/ a former staffer for john conyers who has a promising book coming out real soon, The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time. covers a lot of territory we’ve plotted here.

The Bush Agenda: Invading the World, One Economy at a Time explores the Bush Administration’s plan to invade the world through a corporate globalization agenda, first in Iraq, then the Middle East with the proposed U.S.-Middle East Free Trade Area, and ultimately as a cornerstone to the global Bush Doctrine of Pax Americana. What is Bush’s “free trade?” It’s an economic model that argues that by removing restrictions on multinational corporations, these companies will be freed to become engines of economic growth in countries around the world, but in fact bring vast wealth of a small number of global elites while entire populations suffer dislocation, poverty and violence, creating a perfect Petri dish for breeding terrorists. The instruments for this takeover include such corporations as Bechtel, Lockheed Martin, ChevronTexaco, Halliburton, and many others.
This book addresses the history of U.S. economic relations throughout the world over the past 25 years, the key role of U.S. corporations, and the larger Bush economic agenda and what the potential impact of this agenda will be on the United States and the world. It concludes with specific alternatives to guide the U.S. on a more peaceful and sustainable course in the future. Using Naomi Klein’s No Logo and Eric Schlosser’s Fast Food Nation as models, The Bush Agenda is based on hard analytic fact and presented so that it will not only be persuasive, but highly engaging and entertaining to a broad audience.

Posted by: b real | Apr 20 2006 21:02 utc | 7

Slothrop, I’m sure we could find the money if we took back all of that Cayman Island and Swiss Bank money US elites have been stealing and hiding for years.

Posted by: jdp | Apr 20 2006 21:05 utc | 8

Actually, that idea about the free trade zone – many years ago, South End Press published a book little read outside the traditional Left, listing the global corporate executives who envisioned a sort of world government by corporations. Sounded too much like tin-hat territory, and if you mention the “Trilateral Commission”, I understand you’re either theoretically anti-Semitic or wearing a tin hat.
The scary part is the warmaking though. I thought they were only going to do it with trade. One of the leaders listed in that book’s appendix was – George Herbert Walker Bush.

Posted by: francoise | Apr 20 2006 23:35 utc | 9

btw. I don’t think the comparison of u.s. situation w/ british and french after the first world war is inappropriate. though direct british occupation ended early on, british domination continued for several decades. there’s more than one way to colonize.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 21 2006 0:43 utc | 10

I’m glad Ritter said this. It’s one of the frustrating things about people who are anti-war. When they herald poll numbers of Americans who are now against the war as proof that they were right, then all it means that if the poll numbers shifted, suddenly they’d be wrong.
On the other hand, I disagree with Ritter’s statement that if the war had gone easily in the fashion the polciy-makers hoped, it would still be wrong because it was against international law. Breaking the law to do a good thing is quite an easy argument to make in favor of. The problem was that the “good thing”, the removal of Hussein, was guaranteed to lead to much worse things…like we have now, like the cited War College study indicates.

Posted by: Rowan | Apr 21 2006 2:56 utc | 11

re bk. b real cites – it’s Extremely Dangerous when that’s called the “bush agenda”, rather than the elite agenda. I’m worried that only the foaming sadistic militarism is being discredited – even by the opposition moderate right blogs.
Sounded too much like tin-hat territory, and if you mention the “Trilateral Commission”, I understand you’re either theoretically anti-Semitic or wearing a tin hat.
When Billmon starts posting again, we get all sorts of tourists poking their heads in!! New blood is always fun..

Posted by: jj | Apr 21 2006 2:58 utc | 12

It’s too simple to call Iraq either a success or a failure. As far as kicking their way into the ME to sell shit, they’ve probably succeeded – as well as in intimidating other ME countries into co-operating w/them. The oil question is still open, as we discussed earlier this week.
It’s failed, or created seriously dangerous blowback, by:
1) removing Iran’s enemy hence strenghtening Shia power in the region, which could shake stability of Saudi monarchy;
2) in forging new alliances around the world in opposition to xAm. military power & generally created vast anti-Americanism around the globe;
3) promoted nuke proliferation as countries realize they need to go nuke to protect themselves;
4) Promoted MaleMuslim Fundie Wackos around nowoman’s land.
5) Accelerated the bankruptcy of the nation.

Posted by: jj | Apr 21 2006 3:06 utc | 13

I’m completely on board with most of Ritter’s sentiments above. Having been on the receiving end of that “just war” nonsense-rationalisation while I was protesting before the invasion of Iraq, I do tend to get a little pissed off with the recent “anti-war” converts. Before you get all riled up and call me a hypocrite, let me just say that this is not a case of people doing the right thing for the wrong reason; they’re still doing the wrong gorram thing. It’s not the war they are against, it’s the idea that war affects them somehow. They were all for it when they talked about a Shock and Awe cakewalk that took two weeks and only shattered the lives of people who don’t get all misty-eyed when they hear people singing about the War of 1812 before a baseball game. Now that it affects them, it’s suddenly unpopular.
And they are STILL against it for all the gorram wrong reasons. Yes, it does affect them now more than they thought it would, but what are they bent out of shape over? That professional soldiers are being killed as per their job description? There’s that, and their wounded sense of national pride. But how many of ’em have a clue about who it is that is paying this debacle? Or even how much it costs at all? Who is it, do you think, that pays for this? The war profiteers? The defense corporations? The rich give themselves tax breaks and deferments… the poor pay in money and manpower. But that’s not what has the poor upset. They are upset because they were promised a cakewalk slaughter followed by a parade so they could chant “U.S.A! U.S.A!” to one another over a cooler of Pabst Blue Ribbons.
What is bothering these new converts to the antiwar discussion is not violations of international law, ethical or humanitarian concerns, or even that we will be seeing consequences of US intervention in Iraq into the distant future… it’s that we are still talking about it after all this time at all instead of flexing our Imperial muscle at the next national upstart. Weren’t we supposed to be sending a message to Kim Jong Il about what happens when you mess with the US…?
So, yeah, after having been called a hippie-pinko-tree hugging-unpatriotic-slimebag for not being on board with unprovoked invasions BEFORE they turn into clusterfucks, it’s hard for me to embrace the new debate with open arms now that things have proven to be worse than even I prognosticated they would get (and I was nay such an optimist to begin with).
@slothrop
“I’m not convinced the occupation is a “failure” either, if failure means the disintegration of iraq into neolithic cave groupings is a threat to longterm garrisoned military presence of u.s. It all looks to me like iraq war according to hoyle.”
That depends entirely on which perspective you are looking at this from. If you are Halliburton, Dewberry, Blackwater, Lockheed Martin or any of those profiteering vultures then this is an unqualified bonanza. If you are a member of the US political administration, this is wasted political capital. For AOA in the street (not the ones fighting or dying), it’s a disappointment on par with not having your favourite football team go to the Superbowl. If you are in the American military, it’s an unmitigated failure and an untenable position to be in. If you’re an Iraqi, it’s an inhuman atrocity.
@b real
“now shrub, who has arguably not been very successful in most anything he’s done – depending on whose portfolio you’re looking at – is doing his darndest to make it clear to everyone that we’re no longer even good at war (and we really weren’t as good as we told ourselves & others in the first place).”
I wondered about that when we were going on about those “ungrateful French”. Seems that during WWII, the US waited out the lion’s share of it and then came in with fresh troops towards the end. How does that make us so rutting mighty as all that? Where does this myth of the invincible US military machine come from? The only military operation that has occured in my memory that we didn’t fuck up to some degree was when Reagan invaded a golf course in 1983. The record doesn’t show the “infallible” US as having the success rate to warrant the prestige, and even the successes have to be qualifed (as in the case of WWII that I mentioned). Why hasn’t someone mentioned that the emperor is naked before now?
@jj
“When Billmon starts posting again, we get all sorts of tourists poking their heads in!! New blood is always fun..”
I’ve seen francoise before. She lurks mostly, but she is not just here to browse the gift shop.

Posted by: Monolycus | Apr 21 2006 4:38 utc | 14

Martin van Creveld comes out against any attack on Iran.
This is quite interesting, because he has a LOT of influence on US military thinking and the brass.
Knowing Why Not To Bomb Iran Is Half the Battle

Some serious questions, then, about whether the United States should bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.
The first and most obvious question is whether it is worth doing in the first place. Starting right after Hiroshima, each time a country was about to go nuclear Washington went out of its way to sound the alarm, warning of the dire consequences that would surely follow.

As the record shows, in none of these cases did the pessimists’ visions come true. Neither Stalin, Mao nor any of the rest set out to conquer the world. It is true that, as one country after another joined the nuclear club, Washington’s ability to threaten them or coerce them declined.
However, nuclear proliferation did not make the world into a noticeably worse place than it had always been — and if anything, to the contrary. As Europe, the Middle East and South Asia demonstrate quite well, in one region after another the introduction of nuclear weapons led, if not to brotherhood and peace, then at any rate to the demise of large-scale warfare between states.
Given the balance of forces, it cannot be argued that a nuclear Iran will threaten the United States. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s fulminations to the contrary, the Islamic Republic will not even be a threat to Israel. The latter has long had what it needs to deter an Iranian attack.

Perhaps more troubling than either of these outcomes is the possibility that the attackers, trying to hit camouflaged targets said to be buried deep underground, will not know whether or not they have succeeded. As a result, they may have to go on bombing for much longer than the few days Pentagon sources say the operation might last.
The longer it lasts, the more likely it is that there will be losses in the form of aircraft downed, pilots killed or captured (and, of course, displayed on television) and the like. Remember, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were not supposed to last years either.

Those of us who have followed reports on the development of Iran’s nuclear program know that the warnings from American and other intelligence agencies about Tehran building a bomb in three and five years have been made again and again — for more than 15 years.

Martin van Creveld, a professor of military history at the Hebrew University, is author of “Transformation of War” (Free Press, 1991). He is the only non-American author on the U.S. Army’s required reading list for officers.

Posted by: b | Apr 21 2006 7:53 utc | 15

Another knowledgable conservative against War on Iran:
Luttvak in Commentary Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet

For the long-term consequences of any American military action cannot be disregarded. Iranians are our once and future allies. Except for a narrow segment of extremists, they do not view themselves as enemies of the United States, but rather as the exact opposite: at a time when Americans are unpopular in all other Muslim countries, most Iranians become distinctly more friendly when they learn that a visitor is American. They must not be made to feel that they were attacked by the very country they most admire, where so many of their own relatives and friends have so greatly prospered, and with which they wish to restore the best of relations.
There is a second good reason not to act precipitously. In essence, we should not bomb Iran because the worst of its leaders positively want to be bombed—and are doing their level best to bring that about.

There is a third reason, too. The effort to build nuclear weapons started more than three decades ago, yet the regime is still years away from producing a bomb.

In sum, there is no need to bomb Iran’s nuclear installations at this time. The regime certainly cannot produce nuclear weapons in less than three years, and may not be able to do so even then because of the many technical difficulties not yet overcome.

.. there is no reason to attack prematurely, because there will be ample time to do so before it is too late—that is, before enough fissile material has been produced for one bomb.
And that brings us back to the beginning. What gives great significance to the factor of time is the advanced stage of the regime’s degeneration. High oil prices and the handouts they fund now help to sustain the regime—but then it might last even without them, simply because of the power of any dictatorship undefeated in war. There is thus no indication that the regime will fall before it acquires nuclear weapons. Yet, because there is still time, it is not irresponsible to hope that it will.

No premature and therefore unnecessary attack is warranted while there is still time to wait in assured safety for a better solution. But also and equally, Iran under its present rulers cannot be allowed finally to acquire nuclear weapons—for these would not guarantee stability by mutual deterrence but would instead threaten us with uncontrollable perils.

Posted by: b | Apr 21 2006 8:32 utc | 16

jj- thanks for pointing that out about the misleading title of that book. i totally agree.
Monolycus- the invasion of grenada was a complete fuckup too. the administration fabricated a reason for invading, acted against u.n. security council consensus (the votes were 11-1 against) & to the condemnation of international opinion, bombed a mental hospital killing 17 patients & one staff member, shot up several dozen construction workers & other civies, killed most their own 18 u.s. miltary casualties via “friendly” fire, detained hundreds of grenadans w/o charge for months, violated international conventions for the treatment of pow’s, abolished the right of habeas corpus, destroyed the middle class of grenada, attempted to refit the economy of grenada to serve as a model showcase economy for the carribbean & latin america, and ended up send the island inhabitant’s standard of living into the toilet.

Posted by: b real | Apr 21 2006 14:38 utc | 17

Fascinating links, b. Thanks. From Luttwak:

Although the world now knows him for his persistent denial of the Holocaust and his rants against Israel and Zionism, at home Ahmadinejad’s hostility is directed not against Iran’s dwindling Jewish community but against the Sunnis. Lately, moreover, his ultra-extremism has antagonized even many of his fellow Shiites: he is an enthusiastic follower of both Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Misbah Yazdi, for whom all current prohibitions are insufficient and who would impose an even stricter Islamic puritanism, and of a messianic, end-of-days cult centered on the Jamkaran mosque outside the theological capital of Qum. More traditional believers are alarmed by the hysterical supplications of the Jamkaran pilgrims for the return of Abul-Qassem Muhammad, the twelfth imam who occulted himself in the year 941 and is to return as the mahdi, or Shiite messiah. More urgently they fear that in trying to “force” the return of the mahdi, Ahmadinejad may deliberately try to provoke a catastrophic external attack on Iran that the mahdi himself would have to avert.

I hadn’t heard about this.

Posted by: beq | Apr 21 2006 15:43 utc | 18

@b real.
Ah. I was not aware. Well, looks like we have maintained more continuity there than even I knew about. So when Hussein said that the Iraqis would “break the back” of the US military, he might actually have been sizing things up fairly realistically after all.
Now I’m not much of a poker player, but I do know that you can only bluff your way so far before someone calls you on it.

Posted by: Monolycus | Apr 21 2006 16:33 utc | 19

@ b real – Grenada sounds like a dress rehearsal.

Posted by: beq | Apr 21 2006 16:41 utc | 20

i need to update those numbers i threw out earlier wrt the invasion of grenada after having time to access better references. william blum, in his book killing hope, cites the figures as “135 Americans killed or wounded, 84 Cubans, 400 Grenadians, more or less…”. i’ll retract my stmt that most of the US killed were via friendly fire. the percentage of friendly fire casualties that i can find varies from 13% to 33%.
and the number killed in the hospital bombing is a bit higher. in his book Grenada: Revolution in Reverse, james ferguson writes

The invasion, claimed President Reagan, was conducted with ‘surgical precision’. In reality, it was a clumsy display of incompetence, poor intelligence and what military strategists call ‘overkill’. Not only did the invading forces meet with unexpectedly fierce resistance from a small number of Grenadians, but it was also engaged in wholly avoidable conflict with Cuban construction workers at the site of the new airport. In one of the many bombing raids which were intended to destroy specific targets, a psychiatric hospital was apparently mistaken for a military base when a number of Grenadian troops fled into it, and some thirty patients were killed. Much property was destroyed, while high military and civilian casualties were incurred due to inadeduate communications, lethal ‘friendly fire’ and an emphasis on aerial attacks. … Like the Falklands war the previous year, the Grenada invasion was an important exercise in official misinformation and media control. Just as the extent of US casualties was underestimated, so the numbers of Cuban personnel – and their military status – was deliberately exaggerated in order to explain the difficulties encountered.

while some of that is SOP for all war, operation urgent fury did mark a new paradigm for pentagon control of the media, building on lessons learned in the Falklands war & indeed in many ways a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the today’s state.

In the late 1970s, Pentagon officials began searching for a new model for dealing with the press. They found one in Great Britain, where the Thatcher government had strictly controlled the media during the 1982 war with Argentina over the Falkland Islands. … One article written for a U.S. Naval War College publication outlined the lessons that the Pentagon could learn from the Falklands model. To maintain public support for a war, the article said, a government should sanitize the visual images of war; control media access to military theaters; censor information that could upset readers or viewers; and exclude journalists who would not write favorable stories. The Pentagon used all these techniques to one extent or another during subsequent wars.
The 1983 invasion of Grenada gave the Pentagon its first opportunity to try these news-management techniques. Pentagon personnel, with the knowledge and approval of the White House, barred journalists during the first two days of fighting. Reporters who tried to reach the island by boat were detained by U.S. forces and held incommunicado. Journalists who tried to fly in were “buzzed” by a Navy jet and turned back for fear of being shot down. Nearly all the news that the American people received during the first two days was from U.S. government sources. White House and Pentagon personnel reported that the conflict had been enormously successful and, in the words of Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, “extremely skillfully done.” In fact, the operation had been planned in great haste, and the first day’s fighting had been a near-disaster for U.S. troops and a potential embarrassment for Pentagon leaders. For example, military officers did not know the location of many of the U.S. medical students they supposedly had come to save; U.S. troops were confused about the actual identity of the enemy and were supplied with tourist maps instead of strategic military maps; and more than a dozen innocent people were killed when U.S. forces accidentally bombed a mental hospital after mistaking it for a military installation. [source]

on the unpopularity of the illegal aggression against grenada, here’s blum again w/ another deja vu example of executive arrogance

The invasion was almost universally condemned in Latin America, only the military dictatorships of Chile, Guatemala and Uruguay expressing support. The United Nations voted its disapproval overwhelmingly. To this President Reagan responded: “One hundred nations in the UN have not agreed with us on just about everything that’s come before them where we’re involved, and it didn’t upset my breakfast at all.”

the ferguson books goes on to document the after effects of the invasion, which was seen by the right as an

opportunity to score an important ideological point by proving the superiority of the US-endorsed economic model for development. Washington hoped to … demonstrate the advantages of the US model by turning Grenada into its showcase. The island would become a laboratory for an experiment in … free-market capitalism … based on one central expectation: that foreign private investment, notably from the US, would be the engine for growth and development.

despite pouring more than $120 million into the island, outside of usual influx of corrupt capitalist entreprenuers, there was little to show anyone. according to ferguson,

…a mere seven percent of USAID expenditure in Grenada has been directed towards education, health, agricultural research and community-based projects. The overwhelming majority of USAID funds have instead gone towards dismantling the state sector, encouraging private enterprise and wooing foreign capital – with negligible success.

for the grenadians, compared to the current situation of the iraqis, their turn as lab rats for free market democracy was not as thoroughly devastating in the final analysis, no thanks to their liberators. as ferguson concludes,

The final irony of post-invasion Grenada is that despite great promises and high expectations, the island has merely returned to the economic stagnation and political disenchantment which led to revolution in the first place.

if only the iraqis were to be so fortunate.

Posted by: b real | Apr 22 2006 6:26 utc | 21