Nir Rosen, who did some decent reporting from Iraq, is interviewed by Foreign Policy. I recommend to read it all – it`s short. The major point is that in some years, when the rising and already bloody civil war has exhausted itself, Al Sadr may be the only one to put the pieces back together.
Then there this:
FP: How will the Iraq war impact geopolitics in the long term?
NR: I think we are going to see decades of hostility between the West and the Middle East now. Very well-trained fighters who have gained experience in Iraq can now go to Europe and elsewhere in the Middle East. […]
Throughout the Muslim world, people actually believe that America is the enemy of Islam and even if this might not be true, they have Abu Ghraib and the destruction of Iraq to point to. We’ve also given reform and democracy a bad name. Suddenly, the dictatorships in the Arab world don’t look so bad, in comparison to Iraq, and people are more suspicious of change.
The best way to solve this is stay out. What has the West to struggle with the Middle East? They want to sell their oil, we want to buy it. They want to buy our goods and we want to sell them. Why do we need weapons for that?