You really have to wonder when Morgan Stanley will fire its chief economist Stephen Roach for communist subversion. McCarthy would have had a field day with this statement alone:
Billed as the great equalizer between the rich and the poor, globalization has been anything but. An increasingly integrated global economy is facing the strains of widening income disparities — within countries and across countries. This has given rise to a new and rapidly expanding underclass that is redefining the political landscape.
The piece is actually just a lament about rising protectionism, especially in the U.S. versus China, but also it includes some interesting numbers.
The Gini coefficient is measurement of inequality in income. A Gini value of 100 is the maximum of inequality, 0 describes equal income for all.
Roach gives some values: Japan (25), Europe (32), India (33), U.S. (41) and China (45). In the U.S. the coefficient has risen from 35 in 1970 to today’s value. As he recognizes, such a development, and high inequality in general, leads to pressure for political responses.
The political response in the U.S. is protectionism, often disguised as security issues (see the Dubai port deal). The same error was made in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which stifled world trade and at least exaggerated the great depression.
But Roach fails to point out any measures that easily could lead to lower inequality, lower the Gini coefficient and take away the political pressure for protectionism.
Steep progressive taxing could do a lot lower high income and take away the incentive for ridicules high CEO compensation. Raising the income and capital gain taxes for any dollar above $1,000,000 per year to some 50% would pay for a lot of decent schools. A small tax on big assets could lessen their progressive growth and finance universal health-care. A Tobin tax would restrict international capital speculation and could pay for global development.
Of course economists like Roach know these tools would be the right recipe.
But then, they are sticking to their jobs too.