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Escalation
Today a majority of the 35-nation board of the IAEA reported Iran to the UN Security council. The decisive voice was probably India, which was under heavy pressure by the U.S. and the EU-3.
There were 28 yes votes. Traditionally the IAEA board makes unanimous decisions. This in reflection of the voluntariness of membership of the nuclear non proliferation treaty (NPT).
Iran now declared to stop the voluntary additional access it had given to IAEA inspectors. But it continues to give the access and information required by its treaty obligations through the NPT.
The step of reporting Iran the UN-SC is made without any nefarious action by Iran.
Indeed the January 31 update brief (pdf) (via armscontrolwonk.org) by IAEA’s Olli Heinonen clearly states:
Iran has continued to facilitate access under its Safeguards Agreement as requested by the Agency, and to act as if the Additional Protocol is in force, including by providing in a timely manner the requisite declarations and access to locations.
There are some minor issues outstanding but essentially there is nothing new and nothing that could not be resolved. But as we know this is clearly is not issue at all.
We have been here before.
While Iran had negotiated in good faith and agreed to voluntary additional inspections and a freeze of even research, the pressure was continuously increase. Every time when concessions to demands of access to specific places or persons was given, new additional demands were made.
The minor points mentioned in the report nearly all refer to issues where Iran is asked to prove the absence of intention, documents or equipment.
How can one prove the absence of nothing?
Now the report to the UN-SC will be discussed there and after some more rounds of pull and shove no agreement will be reached.
The U.S. and the EU-3 will than declare the incapability of the UN to act and the bombing will start.
One really has to question the intelligence of the public and media to fall for this scheme again. This just three years after exactly the same script was used against Iraq.
Another sad side of mankind.
C’mon guys n gals let’s be boring and inject a little reality here.
There is no grand plan between Iran and it’s traditional enemy the Sunni Moslem power bloc epitomised by the now nearly defunct Bin-Laden organisation. While millions throughout the Islamic world support Bin Laden as a figure of defiance and resistence, the alleged Al Quaeda organisation, which wasn’t that well organised in 2001 is for all intents and purposes a mouth with no arms or legs in 2006.
If something as dramatic as a detente between the Sunni zealots and Shia zealots had occured, I don’t believe that they could have got anywhere near a complex long-term strategic plan such as a co-ordinated attack on the parasites in the West who have been preying on them, before word of the truce leaked out.
But that said there is no doubt that the Iranians are confident and they have good reason to be.
While there is probably little co-ordination between the disparate groups resisting the invaders and blood-suckers, a ‘serendipitous’ mutual realization has occurred, sparked chiefly by the fool Bush and his equally stupid and greedy acolytes, embarking on their self-defeating invasion of Iraq.
The trouble with being the meanest thug on the block is it only works as long as you keep winning and as long as you can ensure you are only threatening one or two people at a time, and not the whole neigbourhood in one big blue*.
The mess in Iraq has blown the myth of amerikan invincibility and Dubya and co have made the mistake of getting a huge proportion of the neigbourhood, including some of their closest neigbours, pissed off all at the same time. Not smart.
To counter that the US has cajoled and arm-twisted to go multi-lateral and include the EU. Lets face it though the EU suits will only go so far for the US whilst disagreeing appears to threaten long standing relationships, but the time will come when the populations of those countries ‘jack-up’, then tell their sleek politicians that’s about far enough.
It is likely to be well short of a war where Europeans have to fight.
Perhaps if Angela Merkel had won outright the US could have been confident of Germany’s support. That would mean military support since Germany doesn’t hold a permanent seat on the Security Council.
Much as some forces in France would like to repair the franco-us relationship, the us behaved so badly after france made what it’s population believed was a principled stance on Iraq, that I don’t believe they will let their leaders just kiss and make up with BushCo, to the point where French kids are killing and being killed.
All this pales into insignificance when you realise that several anti-imperialist forces around the world have done the numbers and found they don’t add up for amerikan victory.
Even Israel had to do a big climbdown over the weekend.
Israel to pay frozen tax revenues
Israel is to give the Palestinians a final monthly payment of tax and customs revenues, frozen last week over Islamic militants Hamas’ poll victory.
Israel suspended the funds because it regards Hamas as a terrorist group committed to the destruction of Israel.
But a minister said the cabinet decided to make the $45m (£26m) payment because Hamas was not yet in government.
The article goes on to give a spray about ‘Palestinian Corruption’ and this report claims that Israel won’t pay once Hamas is in government but other reports I have seen say that some sort of ‘coalition’ will be sufficient to keep the money flowing. Apart from the obvious fact the Israelis have absolutely no right to stick their paws into Palestinian finances, the reality of the situation, discussed in here last week, means that anything the least bit face-saving and which, incidently, will not include a recognition of Israel by Hamas, will suffice to keep the money flowing.
Hamas neither wants nor needs that money. In fact it is Hamas’ disdain for Israeli/US bribes that has kept it independent for so long.
If that tax and excise money stops the loser will be Fatah.
Let’s remember about 90% of PA aid goes to Fatah supporters. The ‘security services’ won’t be interested in putting their life on the line protecting the ‘zionist state’ for no paycheck.
The Al Aqsa brigade, where young Fatah zealots have been diverted, won’t have any interest at all in not attacking Israel if everyone is unemployed and older ‘wiser’ heads have no means, much less interest in talking them out of it.
Israel might be able to withstand a full-on blue* under normal circumstances but these aint those.
The US has called in a few markers and requires Israeli assistance. Not just the usual, hiding behind US skirts and shouting threats to further inflame the situation.
No one can be sure just what Iran is up to and if the Iranians call the bluff (which seems inevitable at the moment) the US is going to need Israeli military support.
Take a look at Egypt and see how it’s citizens are rioting over the ferry boat corruption and ask yourself how long can the lid be kept on there if a blue* begins?
Forget about Syria staying neutral much less supporting the ‘coalition of the few’, since BushCo have gone out of their way to unnecessarily alienate them.
The riots in Lebanon and the torching of the Danish embassy, tells us exactly how much control the western alliance supported elements of Lebanese governance have over the population, now that Syria has been pushed out.
OK given these circumstances, and being a glass half full sort of person, I am predicting that sane heads within the US will prevail.
Some could argue that what I have outlined above is ideal condition for WW3.
The mixture of ME self assurance combined with the US seeming on the surface to have painted itself into a corner could/should make conflict inevitable. The pragmatists are starting to get more voice in Washington again and even though Iranian President Ahmadinejad is quite deliberately giving BushCo nowhere to go other than into a conflict where the US is unlikely to prevail, or a humiliating climbdown, a skilled pragmatist along the lines of slimeball James A. Baker could find a way to wriggle out.
Of course any climbdown mustn’t carry the implication that the US has overreached itself, or the voters will become disriented and angry.
There is no doubt that if it does come down to a blue*, the US imperial forces, including mercenaries, are in all likelihood going get their asses kicked big time.
I think pragmatism will out but I have begun to consider my present nation of residence’s position if it doesn’t.
I have decided that I will have to keep my mouth firmly shut in NZ if the blue does begin.
‘Doing a Switzerland’ wouldn’t sit well at all with many people here, even moi.
On the other hand since I’m too old to go and my son far too young, it wouldn’t be right for me to argue that it isn’t ethically viable to walk away from old alliances that the US pushed NZ away from back in the 80’s.
The US position is arrogant, domineering and wrongheaded, even worse it is strategically untenable, but in some way that makes it even harder to ignore old committments.
That attitude can not be assumed to be held by some of the newer friends, particularly those who have been arm twisted into compliance.
Russia n China are the most obvious examples. Along with India their support will only be available for as long as the US has a viable economy and that won’t be long if there is ‘trouble at mill’.
Now is the time for citizens in the US to ring their Washington leeches and let them know that a solution best be found.
Of course all talk of asses getting kicked must be avoided.
*In Australia, a “blue” can describe a fight or an argument.
Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 6 2006 0:58 utc | 15
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