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Pipeline Powerplay
The current spat between Russia and Ukraine about the price of natural gas has an interesting side effect.
The current pipeline system between Russia and western Europe is criss crossing the countries who, through various colored U.S. sponsored revolutions, have loosend their ties to Russia.
They have introduced free markets, flat tax systems and in general desocialised their societies. They are also applying for membership into the European Union and NATO.
Russia of course does not like to lose influence over its neighbors and is pulling strings to realign these countries. But western Europeans also have problems with the changes.
While these "new" countries introduce libertarian economies with low taxes for companies and less social security for their people, they induce international companies to move their production from old Europe to their soil. The result is a "race to the bottom" in taxes, social services and wages.
At the same time these countries expect and do get money from the E.U. netpayers which happen to be those countries that are losing the jobs.
Given this background, the great energy game is getting even more important.
The fact that the "new" countries are also transit land for the gas pipelines from Russia to western Europe gives them quite a power should there ever be a serious spat between old and new Europe. Their open political stand against the planned sub baltic sea pipeline from Russia to Germany is witness hereof.
But the current situation, where the Ukraine, in a price dispute with Russia about gas, is threatening to take 15% of transit gas as a fee, is exactly the argument for the otherwise disputed new pipeline.
Indeed I suspect this is one of the major reasons for Russia to take a harder than usual stand against the Ukraine. It demonstrates to western Europe, and especially to Germany, that independence from pipeline infrastructure on foreign ground might be worth the higher initial investment.
But this also only a start of what we will see in future energy disputes. Europe depends on Russian fossile energy and this dependency will increase over time. With it, Russian influence will also increase while U.S. influence may decline.
Additional links:
BBC: Energy and the new world power play
PINR: Battle for Eastern Europe
The possible linkage between the Gazprom decision and a US attack on Iran had never occurred to me, but now that it’s been pointed out, it makes perfect sense. Russia is hardly a superpower anymore (other than having enough nuclear weapons to kill pretty much everybody), but it does possess substantial leverage through natural gas supplies to Western Europe. In this case, I think the message was twofold: (1) to Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Hungary — don’t support a US attack on Iran (2) to Western Europe — convince the Americans this is a really, really bad idea.
That last concept is one that I suspect has a lot of us hung up. That attacking Iran would be a disaster for the United States on so many levels is so obvious as to require no elaboration. In thinking this through, however, I have come to the conclusion that, from the perspective of the Bush Administration, attacking Iran makes perfect sense. This doesn’t mean that the Bush regime will necessarily launch the attack, but I think it is worthwhile to review their logic, at least as I understand it.
First, Iraq was a huge gamble, and they knew it. The goals in invading Iraq were to remake the Middle East in the image of the US, ensure the safety of Israel, and, not incidentally, give the US control over a huge chunk of oil, oil that it could then deny China and other rivals. Except it wasn’t really supposed to be a gamble. I have reached the conclusion that Bush truly and literally believed that God wanted him to invade Iraq. Bush clearly sees himself as a world-historic figure chosen by Destiny to lead the United States forward into a new era. That’s why no planning was done for the post-invasion period — if God guaranteed victory, God would take care of the details. I’m not sure Bush’s Neocon supporters saw quite the divine role, but they too believed that the US invasion would represent a world-historical event, and that US domination (I don’t think that’s too strong a word) of the world was the shape of the future. Cheney and Rumsfeld are nationalist imperialists pure and simple, and Iraq would be the first step in an explicit Imperium. The bottom line is, anyone who has ever studied history in even a passing manner knows how incredibly risky war is, and that you can never be sure of the results. These folks — this cabal, if you will — were absolutely sure that Iraq was not only the right thing to do, but was required by history. There’s a strong whiff of Hegelianism in all this, which is totally consistent with the former Marxism of many of the neocons, by the way.
Of course, things didn’t turn out quite the way they expected. In fact, if you’re cynical, you could conclude that the real winners in Iraq have been the Iranian mullahs. But if you’re Bush and his supporters, this is good, because Iran has been the real enemy all along. Unlike Saddam, Iran’s rulers have been fervent supporters of international terrorism, Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear program, and Iran represents an attractive alternative to the US model in the Moslem world. As one neocon wit put it back in 2001, “everybody wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran.”
Yet it would have been impossible to attack Iran before now — there just wasn’t enough evidence, and more importantly, the US public had not been sufficiently cowed. Now we know that Iran is trying to build nukes, they have supported terrorism, and they are doing their darndest (quite successfully) to take over southern Iraq. The US public is used to the idea of us attacking countries for no cause. In a way, the increasing disenchantment with the war in Iraq actually supports an attack on Iran, for it will mean that the whole Middle Eastern adventure wasn’t pointless after all.
On the flip side, Bush and his cronies desperately need something to change the terms of debate. Not only has Iraq been an unmitigated disaster, but Congress and the public are (to the Bushistas) surprisingly upset over Bush’s cavalier treatment of the US Constitution. His Republican henchmen in the Chamber of People’s Deputies are shitting themselves over the Abramoff investigation. The US is in deep debt to Japan and China (the new bad guy), while Latin America is suddenly favoring Fidel over George. The Europeans aren’t actively opposing us, but they’re clearly mistrusful of the US. Under these circumstances, attacking Iran would be a lot like a gambler going down double or nothing in Vegas after a long losing streak — you’ve got to do something to change your luck, and there is a psychological tendency to conclude that that something must be dramatic.
The final reason Bush thinks he can attack Iran is that the US can get away with it. Especially if the attack involves tactical nukes, it will scare everybody else in the world shitless. Nobody will be willing to take the United States head-on. The US will have established itself as the only power in the world, and the Chinese in particular will do whatever we tell them to. Of course, then we’ll have to worry about terrorism even more, so Congress and the public will be eager to give Bush the unlimited dictatorial powers that he claims and craves.
The key to all this is the Bush belief that God has chosen him to do great things, and the neocon belief that history demands that the US act in this manner. To their way of thinking, the US can’t lose.
Just because things can happen doesn’t mean they will happen. I personally think a US attack on Iran is unlikely because it is in fact so incredibly stupid as to boggle the mind. Nonetheless, I think it is useful to try to look at things from Bush’s warped perspective, so that we can try to figure out what he’s going to do, and why we have to stop him.
Put on your ghost shirts.
Posted by: Aigin | Jan 3 2006 15:55 utc | 20
I read that the only ex-Soviet-bloc country that has come up to the plate to support the upcoming bombing of Iran is Poland. (I’m still having tremendous difficulty in believing the reality of that scenario…) I’m sorry I can’t link, the article was crappy anyway, as no thorough review was undertaken; Turkey, though, was mentioned as refusing (again) with vigor.
Now, that is hardly surprising, pretty much what you’d expect, even if the details are not worked out or attested to, sourced.
Russia is against it, naturally. I wondered if Pooty Poot closing the taps was a kind of warning? I surmise that even if it was not, and was purely the outcome of Rus-Ukr quarrels, it will be felt as a warning by everyone linked to those pipelines. (Reading further down in the thread I see this is mentioned – I started to write before reading the whole thing..)
excerpt from Debs:
Until the slavs in the East have had to labour for tuppence a week the way that the mediterranean countries had to in the 60’s and 70’s during the consolidation of EU mark 1, they will be despised by ‘old’ Europeans in exactly the same way as the Southern Europeans were once regarded by Northern countries such as Britain, France and Germany.
Although there is some truth in what Debs says (particularly about human trafficking, see his post)- I’d like to present a contrary pov. Things have changed.
The ‘new’ EU countries represent, officially and vociferously:
a huge new market – an opportunity for cooperative business deals that will be immensely profitable – outsourcing that makes sense – a pool of highly qualified potential immigrants ready to travel (many have, and the massive immigration of the ‘poor’ predicted by doom sayers has not taken place) – the possibility of ‘fresh starts’ unfettered by the usual problems of colonialism, etc. – an extension of territory, of arable land, agriculture – the possibilty of cleverly changing the ‘tired’ demographics in the ‘old’ EU – consolidation of a large zone that might possibly compete sucessfully with the US (therefore the endless US efforts to create splits and divisions) – a chance to encourage, or enforce, the mobility of workers, students, and so on.
That leaves out cultural aims, mingling of expertise, the adoption of a common language (it will be English), and the assuaging of guilt. Many know that they took a terrible beating after 90, that NATO was responsible, reparations must be made (leaving out old history here…).
AND – a closer tie to the sources of energy the EU partly relies on (see above) …
Poles, Ukrainians, Serbs, etc. (to the same tune as Greeks..) are not immigrants asked to work for a pittance, and return home when they are done; legislation gurarantees that. They are no looked down upon. Not amongst the ordinary people I have spoken to in Holland, France, etc. Moreover, Hungary, Poland, others, receive ‘immigrants’ from the old EU – they go to earn money, learn from experts, have a freerer or more quiet or more sporty life, branch out, buy cheaper property and so on. (Ex-Yugo remains a black spot.)
It is not all roses of course. Just wanted to put in those 2 cents, very much an ‘official’ pov, but relevant nonetheless. Sexy Polish plumbers are .. cool!
Posted by: Noisette | Jan 3 2006 18:03 utc | 22
This post seems either terribly dated or terribly off topic as the thread has progressed. Nevertheless, I composed this this morning but had to leave before it was complete.
jonku stated,”Killing is wrong. Murder is wrong. On this we cannot disagree.”
Asked about the moral rightness of the Iraq war, the Dalai Lama offered only historical examples and ambiguity.
“History showed that the Second World War served us, protected,” he said. “The Vietnam War — same motivation, same goal — protect Vietnam.
and this from AFB:
The allied victory in World War II “saved Western civilization,” and conflicts fought in Korea and Vietnam were honorable from a moral standpoint, the 14th Dalai Lama said in answer to questions.
While I realize that I am not the religious thinker or leader that the Dalai Lama is, I hope that I am a more astute, and critical, political analyst. Therefore, this post may be taken as slightly tongue-in-cheek.
Even as a Jew, I cannot find a whole lot of moral light between the holocaust and the 97-99% extermination of the Native American. One might think that as a Native person–that is more or less historically native to the land he comes from, Tibet–His Holiness, the Dalai Lama might be slightly more critical of the attributes, and historical actions, of so-called “Western Civilization”, and not so attached to its propaganda forms. I would expect that even the average Buddhist in as environmentally sensitive an area as Tibet would question the myth of “Perpetual Growth based upon Industrial Progress, through effective control of Natural Resources”, which is inseparable from “Western Civilization”, far more than the Dalai Lama does. But then perhaps there is a spiritual difference, which I am not, as of yet, sufficiently sensitive enough to perceive, between the cutting down of Tibetan forests by the Chinese, and the cutting down of Indonesian forests by the Japanese, or the cutting down of Amazonian forests by the Brazilians, or the cutting down of North American forests by the Americans and Canadians.
As the book “The Jew and the Lotus” attests to, The Dalai Lama can be quite a deep and subtle spirtual thinker. But, donning the hat of political leader of his people, he is forced to spout the same inanities as all other politicians, in order to favor his people above others. That is why he is not free to criticize the neo-liberal policies of his host country, India, which are killing (in every sense of the word) thousands upon thousands of innocent native farmers and villagers. It is telling that in the book, the first question His Holiness put to the conclave of Rabbis that were meeting with him was, “What adaptations will my people have to go through, in order to maintain our uniqueness, and survive, now that we are in Diaspora? How can I learn from the Jewish experience?” Perhaps, instead of a few dessicated old Rabbis, the Wolfowitzs, and Pearles, and Sharons of the world can teach him how to not just adapt, but thrive, in Diaspora.
One never wants to see sausage being made, but it is so much uglier when it is being made by a vegetarian, like the Dalai Lama. In the spirit of Ahimsa, of course.
As far as the question of the morality of killing during WWII, or any so-called “just war”, I recall it being discussed and addressed in a far less doctrinaire way by fellow monks, including Japanese, when I was a monk-in-training at Shasta Abbey in the late ’70’s. Killing can always be justified, AND killing can always be impugned or rejected via accepted intellectual means. The only difference is who does the dying, and who does the apologetics. The Dalai Lama would rather perform major league apologetics than major league dying. Who can blame him, but who can acclaim him as a Global Spiritual Leader for doing so?
But all of this blather is only meant to lead up to my main point: Be very careful when you talk about “Just War.” Especially if you don’t completely understand all of the motivations, economically and politically, of the parties involved. While I am not competely opposed to all war, there is no getting around the fact that war does represent the imposition of one’s will upon others by force. That is a high bar to justify, even for a parent.
So we should all be particularly suspicious of any accounts of conflicts set out in the donminant media that ignore, or minimize, or mislead us regarding the economic or strategic interests of the U.S., and, if different, the ruling hegemon.
We should also be extremely sensitive to any of the following “myths” frequently perpetuated in the coverage of covert US proxy conflicts in seemingly remote corners of the world.
* “The remote corner of the world” myth There are no more remote corners of the world. The entire world has been assayed, geographically, resource-wise, faith-wise, value-wise, and in every other which way. Even thirty years ago, Anthropology students were hard pressed to find a unique place or angle with which to study people. The 1968 publication of “American Kinship”, which applied anthropological methodologies and categorizations to domestic “peoples” or societies, was considered avant garde when it was published; but within little more than a decade it was accepted by prospective grad students as, as much of a capitulation to the reality that the outer frontiers had been studied and restudied, and were therefore spent, as the intellectual tour de force that it had initially been aclaimed to be.
* “We didn’t know, or realize what was going on” We have, and have had people in the “State Department” (in quotes, since it is most concerned with not State, per se, but, Orwellianly, with “Out of State”, or Global dynamics.) studying every square inch of the planet since at least Truman, and predominately since Roosevelt, the original media phenomenon, that is “Rough Rider” Teddy.
* “We made a mistake by not acting” This is Clinton’s favorite apologia. Were it not for a deeper analysis of “American Interests”, and a deeper ignorance of the manpower, brought to bear, in the apparatus of State, this excuse might be more credible.
* “So-called “Primitive” people have different, and inexplicable morals which govern their, consequently, incomprehensible actions. Tribes which have lived together, in more or less homeostasis, for centuries will suddenly decide to annihilate each other–This is the Western premise. Are the tribes morals to blame, or Western influences?
* Life is cheaper among “Primitive” peoples. Look your loved ones square in the eyes before you opine how much you love this myth. It will only help you affirm it, as relatedness is everything here. OUR caring means more than THEIR caring, hands down. WE attest to it. Life truly is cheaper for our enemies than us, if not emotionally (which has never been proven), then in actuality. We can, and do, kill many more of theirs than they kill of ours.
* Historical perspective does not exist, or at best, is used very selectively. Thousands of years of Hutu/Tutsi relations are condensed into two sentences. The last sixth months of activity covers 100 column inches. I, too, have bowed down behind the decontextualized/emotionalized reporting of Philip Gourevitch and The New Yorker’s. No outside forces are acknowledged in this segment. The telescopic lens has truly zoomed in upon its subject. Objectivity has capitulated. There is no surrender to the onslaught of “Modern Media.” We are captive. The millimeter is the message.
Posted by: Malooga | Jan 4 2006 1:46 utc | 26
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