Hamas, the islamist Palestinian group, has won a majority of seats in yesterday’s election. The ruling Fatah has declared defeat and Prime Minister Ahmed Curia and his cabinet resigned.
Only 6% of a quarter million Palestinians in east Jerusalem could get to vote. But despite (or because of?) these illegal Israeli restrictions and an undercover U.S. funded Fatah campaign, the voters preferred a disciplined, social responsible, religious movement over a corrupt and chaotic secular party.
Like Uri Avnery I believe this to be a positive development for the Palestinians, the Israeli and the wider Middle East.
Let me explain:
Gaza is a big, isolated concentration camp and the West Bank is divided into Bantustans by zionist colonial settlements. Access to water is under Israeli control. Factually Palestine and Israel are one apartheid regime. Given this, there is no and never can be an economical and/or political viable Palestinian state.
But there is no sign that the Palestinians will ever give up their struggle or lose international support unless there is a sufficient and just solution. On the other side, it is baloney to expect that the mass-reestablishment of a Jewish population in Palestine after WWII can be rescinded.
Short of an reenactment of a shoa with opposite signs, the only viable longterm solution is a common state which includes Israel, Gaza and the West Bank into one nation and allows equal rights for everybody living there.
The Israeli election system gives undue power to small, radical religious parties, making Israel in effect a jewish religious state and comparable to islamic rule in Iran. Hamas on the other side is calling for a radical islamic state. The natural compromise is secularization of the government, policy and public life.
With Fatah such a solution would have been impossible. What could have been a compromise between a secular Palestinian and a religious state Israel but something ignoring the islamist side? Fatah, and Abbas as a U.S. selected President, would never be able to get their population’s support for such a step. Hamas’ win makes the solution possible.
On the other side a fractured Israeli government may not be able to compromise and keep its standing. In the coming Israeli election, Ohlmert’s Kadima may now have the chance for a decisive victory, eliminating the need for a coalition with religious splinter parties.
What may look as a recipe for an even stronger stand off, a strong Hamas and a unrestrained, unilateral acting Kadima, is a precondition for negotiations that lead to sustainable solutions.
Bury the roadmap, which was ignored by all side anyway. The EU and the Arab league should up the financing of the Palestinian side for the promise of a sustained hudnah (truce). The roadmap partners should threaten serious sanctions for any unilateral steps by the Israeli government that would cement the conflict.
There is no escape from the logic of a one state solution.
South Africa has shown that peaceful solutions to apartheid are possible. To develop, they need pressure from outside and strong leaders with both parties on the inside.
Hamas victory has established one strong party. The other parts of the puzzle may now fall into their place.