As I was traveling by train these last days, I had a chance to finish the newest book by Peter Scholl-Latour: "Giant on Clay Feet".
Scholl-Latour is a German author, an Arabist and TV correspondent now 82 years old. He reported on three wars from Vietnam, from Korea, Algeria and countless other conflicts.
His books are bestsellers in Germany. There is some information in English on his previous book, "Superpower in Quicksand". Unfortunately the only one translated to English seems to be "Death in the Rice Fields", an eyewitness account on three wars in Vietnam.
What makes Scholl-Latour’s books attractive, is his personal knowledge of actors and places.
Just as one example, he was the only western journalist to accompany Ayatollah Khomeni, who he criticize, to Tehran in 1979. Unsure of his treatment on arrival, Khomeni entrusted Scholl-Latour to carry his handwritten version of the new Iranian constitution.
For his new book he visited the U.S., North Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.
- In a discussion with Senator McCain they agree on the inability of a superpower to win an asymmetric war.
- He talks with, often unnamed, officials in Phnom Penh and other places and is concluding that the power is with the military and Kim Jong Il is just a puppet the generals play.
- In Vietnam he interviews General Giap who calls the war on Iraq "an unjustified war of aggression", denies to directly comment on it, but then recalls the battle of Dien Bien Phu and how a determined people can beat any occupation force.
- In Iraq he has meetings with al-Hakim and Ayatollah al-Mudarissi, who will be the successor of Sistani.
Some of Scholl-Latour’s conclusions:
- Any attack on North Korea by the U.S., China or South Korea will end in a quagmire. There is no chance to win against a completely indoctrinated people and a military prepared for guerrilla resistance. In the current conflict the generals are determined to hand the U.S. a huge loss of face.
- The Shia and their leader Sistani have outplayed the U.S. proconsuls by demanding the elections the U.S. propaganda of democracy set out. They may well build an axis from Persia to Lebanon to Bahrain.
- The U.S. military is a "Thalassocrathic" force. It’s carriers are dreadnoughts. There is no way it can every win a fight against a determined asymmetric land force.
- Unlike in other wars, the U.S. forces in Iraq are completely insulated from the local population. Though they have a lot of comfort, which does not really help their fighting spirit, the distance from the population and the inability to vent through alcohol, love or other human means leads to dangerous psychic crisis.
- The "human factor" in the U.S. leadership just isn´t there. Like Russia with Gorbatschow, who lost the Sowjet empire in just a few years, the U.S. is only a few presidential acts away from a loss of its status and role in the world.
- The U.S. and "the west" has no understanding for the dynamic and power of the
social and religious movements in the Middle East. It acts weaken the
traditional moderate forces of Islam.
In the eyes of this man, who has seen it all, the prophecy of Daniel to Nebuchadnezzar will again come true. The empire giant of gold and steel has feet made of clay which will break. The giant will fall.