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October 8, 2005
Weekend Thread Open
Never without one …
Comments
I’m taking up the challenge i put out to Uncle $cam on prev. Open Thread – to post something funny, beautiful, or hopeful occasionally. Hope others will join me. Posted by: jj | Oct 8 2005 6:55 utc | 1 Perhaps one of the European contributors can tell us about these Spanish enclaves in Morocco. I had never heard of them until a couple of weeks ago when stories first appeared complete with pictures of bloodied rags hanging off razor wire, of sub-Saharan Africans dodging bullets in a desperate attempt to enter Spain. Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 8 2005 6:59 utc | 2 If the Spanish don’t want Africa in Spain it would strike one as being somewhat more straightforward to take Spain outta Africa than keep Africans outta Africa. Posted by: Fran | Oct 8 2005 8:08 utc | 3 i would like to send a personal note of thanks to the 50.5% of voters who believed re-electing george bush was appropriate behavior. i was at the rolling stones show that was interrupted by a 50-minute intermission for a bomb scare. so it’s clear to me from that incident that we are losing the war on terror. my message to the ASSHOLES who voted for gwb is this: if we were going to lose the w.o.t. anyway, couldn’t you at least have voted for john kerry so we didn’t have to have these lunatics on the supreme court and in the rest of the judiciary branch for the next 30 years? Posted by: mc | Oct 8 2005 11:15 utc | 4 fnord Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 8 2005 14:28 utc | 5 Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 8 2005 15:27 utc | 6 @mistah charley – that “plan”, which is more of a scenario description, sounds like a preparation for the public to give up any resistance against a DoD lead in the case of an epidemy. It fits to Uncle’s link to “The Market in Fear” above (Thanks Uncle – good piece). Uncle $cam – good to see someone else here is reading Spiked. Mick Hume has got to be one of the most contrarian writers alive, but I have been watching Spiked’s work on focus on fear for a few years now and they were way ahead of the curve and doing excellent insightful and thought provoking work with the articles and the seminars. Thanks for posting this. Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8 2005 15:57 utc | 8 @mc Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 8 2005 16:12 utc | 10 Thanks for the link, Uncle. While fear has been been used to attract audiences to popular entertainment and to scare people into supporting the military-intelligence-industrial complex for decades, BushCo has fed, broadcast and magnified the fear, creating a market for protectors and offering themselves as the only product available to counter the puffed up threats. It has worked, but the original 9/11 effect is wearing off – even among the right wingers I live around. Guess it is time for a new “attack.” Posted by: lonesomeG | Oct 8 2005 16:45 utc | 11 @b No, the chances for a pandemic were not just as high 10 or twenty years ago. Many diseases—particularly influenza—have highly specific immune system responses. That is, surviving one strain of flu does not make you immune to the others. (Otherwise, you would get a vaccine shot and be done with it.) As time goes on, the number of people who survived older waves of disease die off, meaning that there are fewer and fewer people alive who would be resistant to the same disease coming through again. This is why I’m not so thrilled about the project that brought back the 1918 flu virus—what percentage of the population is still living who area already safe? (That being said, of course, influenza mutates relatively quickly, even in the more stable strains.) Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 8 2005 16:56 utc | 12 @Cornered Truth Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 8 2005 17:30 utc | 13 Top American News Stories Posted by: avian tomlin | Oct 8 2005 18:41 utc | 14 @avian – wasn´t that a different recipe? I’ve followed for several years…. many points/counter I’ve appreciated— these mindless dumps just show an emptiness. Posted by: Soandso | Oct 8 2005 19:32 utc | 16 link Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8 2005 19:50 utc | 17 This is huge and sad:
Well, that analyst is an idiot.How about a nationalized healthcare and about a managment that doesn´t look at quarter reports and what sells today but years ahead to make the right products for times to come. This is not a question of “enable investment in the latest technology”. It`s a question of long term view. White House Tapes has audio files and transcripts of presidental conversations between 1940 and 1973, including FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon. Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 8 2005 22:05 utc | 20 PBGC bank-run survivor: ‘It was like hell’ Posted by: Mary Antwil | Oct 8 2005 22:37 utc | 21 Looks like Uncle & I have been visiting the same website. Since he covered the above post, I’ll add this. Posted by: jj | Oct 8 2005 22:39 utc | 22 i really think that this culture of fear – of the creation of the institution of fear especially under the aegis of mr murdoch & the specific realities of that construction needd much meditation Posted by: remembereringgiap | Oct 9 2005 0:35 utc | 23 b – you use terms like “scam” and “hoax” regarding the warnings of a possible pandemic sometime soon Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 1:08 utc | 24 The pandemic scare is a shoehorn to Martial Law. Posted by: pb | Oct 9 2005 4:24 utc | 25 there is a must-read diary over at dkos i’m trying to make sure gets everywhere. it’s double-super important, so don’t keep it secret!
Posted by: Cedwyn | Oct 9 2005 6:44 utc | 26 @Cedwyn Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 9 2005 7:07 utc | 27 @mistah – Roche Would Benefit From US Tamiflu Order
This is just one of them. Add some folks at the WHO, some NGOs who are engaged in this and every politician that is riding on the fear wave. @b: You’re falling for something akin to the idea that “you’re either for us or against us”—and it is equally untrue. You are assuming that, because Bush and Co. lie some of the time, they lie all the time. Therefore, since they’re starting to talk about avian influenza, it means that avian influenza is a big hoax, and there is no danger. We’re lucky Bush hasn’t given any speeches recently about how important it is to keep breathing, or you would have asphyxiated by now. You’re the medical equivalent of the neocons predicting that the Iraqis would welcome U.S. troops—your position is unsupported by reality, and can only be true if a huge number of situations turn out for the best. Flu pandemics are seriously dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous to the third world than the first. The developed world may have been running down recently, but we still have a lot of hygienic infrastructure—sewers, water purification plants, and so on—which will limit the impact of a pandemic a bit. If we are unlucky enough to have an influenza epidemic, we will be very, very lucky if it doesn’t wipe out whole ethnicities, the way the 1918 flu almost did. Oh, you didn’t know about that? The fatality rate in 1918 in Philadelphia was about 1 in 10. That’s terrible, but it didn’t wipe Philadelphia out. But others weren’t even that fortunate: the fatality rate among infected Inuit was damn near 100%, for example; whole populations were wiped out. If the infection rate had been as high as the fatality rate, there might very well not have been any of them left today. If we let another pandemic come through which we can prevent, who knows what sorts of people might be wiped out? Native Americans? Europeans? Africans? Palestinians? Koreans? There will be no way to tell until the virus hits their populations, and by then it will be too late. I seem to recall someone telling me that supporting arbitrary death was disgusting and un-left. And here you are, telling us this is just a big fairy tale, and we can ignore it. I’m sorry if I seem unduly angry about this, but this really pushes my buttons—it’s like you’re denying global warming. You’re a leftist, darn it, you’re supposed to be smart enough not to do that kind of thing! Leave the betrayals of the poor and defenseless to the right. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 9 2005 8:32 utc | 29 These hyped up scares (flu) almost happen naturally, in an atmosphere of fear and sadism. An enemy – or vehicle for panic and hate – which is invisible, unpredicable, inhuman, is perfect. Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 8:39 utc | 30 Uncle, Posted by: jm | Oct 9 2005 8:50 utc | 31 Just want to add, that real fears do accompany human behavior with all the weapons and violent actions, but we learn to dodge and duck, how to predict and how to protect ourselves. There seems to be a relatively safe path through the minefield for many of us, although a surprise can be waiting around any corner. Maybe it’s part learned behavior as we learn to drive a vehicle with safety. Posted by: jm | Oct 9 2005 9:00 utc | 32 @The Truth.. LA Times Editorial on Avian Flu Not just for the birds
OMG! b, is that for real? “who to invade next” video? Goddess knowS, we certainly do deserve our rulers if this is the case… that was a sad sad commentary on Americam please, tell me it was satire. Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 9 2005 13:27 utc | 37 The mortality rate of the 1918/19 flu pandemic was between 2 and 3 %. Not very high – sadly hundreds of millions did catch it. Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 15:56 utc | 38 The mortality rate of the 1918/19 flu pandemic was between 2 and 3 %. Not very high – sadly hundreds of millions did catch it. Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 15:58 utc | 39 @b Yes, but Bush’s attempt to take advantage of the situation is a non-starter, so there’s nothing to worry about there. If we have a flu pandemic along 1918 lines, Bush will find very quickly that military law is useless. Soldiers are human, too, and viruses are practically unstoppable. They are way too small to be stopped by most filters, and in any case the soldiers would have to wear biohazard equipment 24-7, which is not feasable. In fact, soldiers are one of the worst groups to combat a 1918-style flu pandemic. What people forget is that the 1918 flu killed a disproportionate number of adults. (This effect is masked by World War One, but is definitely there.) Usually, a graph of fatalities by age looks like a letter “U”, because diseases kill a lot of children and the elderly. The 1918 flu, though, as far as we can tell, killed people by activating their immune systems so thoroughly that their lungs got filled up with remnants of the fight. Between damage to lung cells by the virus—which is what the doctors who reconstructed the virus confirmed—and the leftover garbage, people basically drowned in mucus. Not pleasant. The curve looks like a letter “W” with a big lump wedged in the middle. Guess where soldiers fall on that curve? (I wonder if anyone tried using antihistamines on healthy adults during the 1918 flu? Suppressing the immune response might be helpful if the theory is correct.) As for a human-eating version of H5N1 being unlikely: H5N1 mutates faster than most other types of flu, and it can swap genes with other varieties that it meets. It is entirely plausible that if there is a case of avian H5N1 infecting someone who has a human version already, the result would be exactly what everyone is worried about. And avian H5N1 is spreading in a disquieting way. @Noisette: Those are the overall figures. When you look at specific populations, things get worse. (Urban areas, for example, are worse, because there are more people to spread between. Given the political demographics of the U.S., a flu pandemic will have the effect of making the country even more conservative.) And there is no known way to stop the spread of flu without cutting off all travel in the infected area. (Deep down in Bush’s tiny little mind, that’s undoubtedly the idea.) Even then, your thinking is skewed. A 2% mortality rate means that one person in fifty will be dead—in a matter of a few weeks. That’s a recipe for disaster. The difference between SARS and flu, in essence, is that SARS is both genetically stable and had a well-defined starting point. Chances are good that bird flu will be neither if it starts eating humans; flu replicates very quickly, and mutates during the process—it’s a tradeoff; you can either have fast copies or good ones. (Also, as I recall, the period during which people who have been infected are themselves infectious is different—with flu, you have both a period before getting sick and a period afterward when you are contagious.) Science may be better armed, but most of our armaments are targeted at bacteria, not viruses. The latter are remarkably hard to fight. One last note: the problem with flu mortality statistics is that you don’t die of flu, you die of complications like pneumonia. So: some elderly person dies of pneumonia—did they have flu? It may not be possible to tell. To a certain extent, those statistics are a guess. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 9 2005 16:22 utc | 41 For a reasoned flu pandemic approach from someone who’s been an epidemiologist for 40 years (and these tend NOT to be right-wingers, or in the pockets of the drug companies, from my own experience working with them for a couple of years a decade ago)- see “revere” at Effect Measure Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 16:59 utc | 42 When Bush declares martial law it won’t be to preempt the flu bug. It will be to ward off his own political demise and it will happen sooner than you think. With Congressional approval and New Orleans as a prescedent, Posse Comitatus will be easy for him to implement at any time to solidify his position as Commander in Chief. Bush and the Gang are not interested in saving peoples lives they are only interested in stuff and things that represent Capital. If he wants to save American lives from the flu he should be talking about universal health care not using his military to keep people away from prevention or treatment.(quarantine} Posted by: pb | Oct 9 2005 17:03 utc | 43 re: flu pandemic- Posted by: fauxreal | Oct 9 2005 17:06 utc | 44 @Noisette – you say, “look at SARS” Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 17:08 utc | 45 James McMurtry has a new song that kinda sums things up: Posted by: biklett | Oct 9 2005 17:43 utc | 46 Where There’s a Will, There’s a Great White Way Posted by: tante aime | Oct 9 2005 17:45 utc | 47 Encouraging… Posted by: jj | Oct 9 2005 18:16 utc | 48 Sounds like Americans could be meeting w/Israelis to plan ending NeoNuts debacle…In parallel to post above from LA Times by Zbig, look what just popped up in Ha’aretz. Posted by: jj | Oct 9 2005 18:44 utc | 49 If we want we can go backwards and forwards about whether or not there is going to be a flu pandemic and if there is whether or not it will be a genetic mutation of the avian flu. Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 3:37 utc | 50 Does anyone want to see these clowns take over as the World’s Fixer?? Chinese thugs, of the stripe hired by officialdom to do their dirty work, beat a leader of the rural movement possibly to death in front of a Guardian reporter, no less. The reporter was barely able to prevent them from ripping him out of the cab & repeating their performance on him. link Posted by: jj | Oct 10 2005 7:24 utc | 51 @jj Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 8:34 utc | 52 Looks like Angela has the chancellor’s gig. This goes to show really that there is so little difference in attitudes and outlooks of your average centre left party and centre right party that voting is purely a tweedledum tweedledee exercise. Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 13:05 utc | 53 Help wanted Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 10 2005 13:16 utc | 54 Truth, I don’t think we disagree about the facts at all. Our guess – estimates about the future are different? Posted by: Noisette | Oct 10 2005 14:07 utc | 55 @Debs is Dead: Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 10 2005 16:03 utc | 56 Shades of Y2K. LOL! Posted by: gylangirl | Oct 11 2005 0:59 utc | 57 |
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