Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 8, 2005
Weekend Thread Open

Never without one …

Comments

I’m taking up the challenge i put out to Uncle $cam on prev. Open Thread – to post something funny, beautiful, or hopeful occasionally. Hope others will join me.
Here’s a new concept in using the web I found that may prove fruitful.
Participate.net is a new community social action website, developed in part by our own Micki Krimmel. Participate.net is now up and running, and it’s well-worth checking out. A project of Participant Productions, the social-action film company, Participate.net showcases activist projects directly related to current Participant releases, including the new George Clooney-directed Good Night, and Good Luck. Beyond its specific projects, Participate.net brings together an active community to address major social issues.
“The Participate community includes actors, filmmakers, issue experts, moviegoers, and activists from all over the world. They write blogs, share ideas, sign petitions, recruit new members, organize discussion groups, and take direct action. They are Participants in improving their lives, homes, schools, communities, and the world.”
link

Posted by: jj | Oct 8 2005 6:55 utc | 1

Perhaps one of the European contributors can tell us about these Spanish enclaves in Morocco. I had never heard of them until a couple of weeks ago when stories first appeared complete with pictures of bloodied rags hanging off razor wire, of sub-Saharan Africans dodging bullets in a desperate attempt to enter Spain.
The thing is call me stupid but I always thought Spain was on the other side of the Mediterranean in Europe, not on the ‘South Side’ in Africa.
Over the days there have been numerous stories about these desperate refugees and they all refer to these ‘enclaves’ as part of Spain but to me they sound more like the last remnants of colonialism.
It seems that after WW2 when the white fellas in the North were meant to give back what they had stolen from the South many never let go. They grimly hung on to a little corner so that when no one was looking they could grab everything back. Something which has been happening ever since. I mean why do the brits have the most access to Nigerian Oil? The French to the Ivory Coast resources? etc
I wouldn’t be surprised to discover that in Morocco these enclaves are where the white fellas go home each night after a hard day exploiting the Moroccans. There will be lots of soldiers there too placed to ‘protect’ the whiteys if the locals have the insufferable cheek to get uppity. I suppose it beats the French method of sending in the Foreign Legion to protect the whiteys if the locals do try and take back what’s theirs.
Stories like this get me spitting chips because if one were to cast ones eye around the ‘New World’ and count alla the whitefellas at the top of the heap everywhere and compare that to the numbers of Somalian busboys, Turkish garbage collectors or Jamaican house maids in the ‘Old World’ one would discover a huge numerical discrepancy in favour of the Europeans.
If the Spanish don’t want Africa in Spain it would strike one as being somewhat more straightforward to take Spain outta Africa than keep Africans outta Africa. But there you go go. What do I know? Doubtless there are a zillion rationalisations about the place informing us that if the Spanish were to do such a thing then Africa would be the loser.
Of course altruism and imperialism have been inextricably entwined since the Spanish gave the locals in America the choice of being tortured to death or ‘accepting the word of god’ and being put to death painlessly.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 8 2005 6:59 utc | 2

If the Spanish don’t want Africa in Spain it would strike one as being somewhat more straightforward to take Spain outta Africa than keep Africans outta Africa.
Debs is dead, seems to be logical, however there seems to be some strategic aspects behind this problem. Migeru has writen this diary
Ceuta: a taster of Fortress-EU (updated), which might be helpful.

Posted by: Fran | Oct 8 2005 8:08 utc | 3

i would like to send a personal note of thanks to the 50.5% of voters who believed re-electing george bush was appropriate behavior. i was at the rolling stones show that was interrupted by a 50-minute intermission for a bomb scare. so it’s clear to me from that incident that we are losing the war on terror. my message to the ASSHOLES who voted for gwb is this: if we were going to lose the w.o.t. anyway, couldn’t you at least have voted for john kerry so we didn’t have to have these lunatics on the supreme court and in the rest of the judiciary branch for the next 30 years?

Posted by: mc | Oct 8 2005 11:15 utc | 4

fnord
After New Labour, what’s left?
by Mick Hume
The market in fear
Politics has become a contest between different brands of doom-mongering.
The market in fear .
Fear is fast becoming a caricature of itself. It is no longer simply an emotion or a response to the perception of threat. It has become a cultural idiom through which we signal a sense of unease about our place in the world.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 8 2005 14:28 utc | 5

Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is
expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that
began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to
reach the United States within “a few months or even weeks.”
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed,
riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would
be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The
New York Times.

Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 8 2005 15:27 utc | 6

@mistah charley – that “plan”, which is more of a scenario description, sounds like a preparation for the public to give up any resistance against a DoD lead in the case of an epidemy. It fits to Uncle’s link to “The Market in Fear” above (Thanks Uncle – good piece).
This whole story of a coming pandemic running right now is a hoax. The chances for a natural pandemic were just as high 10 years ago, 20 years ago and will be just as high 10 years from now and 20 years from now.

Posted by: b | Oct 8 2005 15:47 utc | 7

Uncle $cam – good to see someone else here is reading Spiked. Mick Hume has got to be one of the most contrarian writers alive, but I have been watching Spiked’s work on focus on fear for a few years now and they were way ahead of the curve and doing excellent insightful and thought provoking work with the articles and the seminars. Thanks for posting this.
Totally off topic, but I also thank Spiked for publishing physician Michael Baum’s contrarian view of mammograms. His work is well worth a look to those of us who are browbeaten by western medicine’s misleading messages about the benefits of self breast exams and the (socially compulsory ) annual mammogram. I personally do not believe in annual mammograms and am convinced that more often than not they lead to unnecessary anxiety and invasive diagnostic procedures. Baum and other (non-US) physicians agree and take it a step further – positing that these procedures may actually cause cancers to develop, much like waking a sleeping dragon. I have nearly come to fist-o-cuffs in conversations with friends about routine mammography, it was enormously affirming to read Baum’s work on Spiked and then follow the links to other like-minded physicians in Canada and Europe People still look at me like I am crazy, but it helps to be able to reference respected medical professionals. And it means a lot to me to knowt that there are physicians who do not buy into the western medical model.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8 2005 15:57 utc | 8

whoops. that last one was mine.

Posted by: conchita | Oct 8 2005 16:07 utc | 9

@mc
“i would like to send a personal note of thanks to the 50.5% of voters who believed re-electing george bush was appropriate behavior.”
Why don’t you reserve some unknowable, but appreciable, percentage of your congratulations to Diebold? Two of your premises are faulty and reinforce popular myths. The first myth is that the present administration represents and reflects the will of the voting public of the USA. Secondly, did they actually find a bomb or a “terrorist” at your interrupted concert or was it just a nice reminder to the public that “terrorists” are lurking everywhere (even at shows by the Rolling Stones, who have been so vocally opposed to our Sweet Neocons)? It’s difficult for the US to “lose” the War on Terrorism when it continues to be so expedient for our corporate masters to keep inventing it as they go along.

Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 8 2005 16:12 utc | 10

Thanks for the link, Uncle. While fear has been been used to attract audiences to popular entertainment and to scare people into supporting the military-intelligence-industrial complex for decades, BushCo has fed, broadcast and magnified the fear, creating a market for protectors and offering themselves as the only product available to counter the puffed up threats. It has worked, but the original 9/11 effect is wearing off – even among the right wingers I live around. Guess it is time for a new “attack.”
RGiap had a good book title for our era: The Triumph of the Willies.

Posted by: lonesomeG | Oct 8 2005 16:45 utc | 11

@b

No, the chances for a pandemic were not just as high 10 or twenty years ago. Many diseases—particularly influenza—have highly specific immune system responses. That is, surviving one strain of flu does not make you immune to the others. (Otherwise, you would get a vaccine shot and be done with it.) As time goes on, the number of people who survived older waves of disease die off, meaning that there are fewer and fewer people alive who would be resistant to the same disease coming through again. This is why I’m not so thrilled about the project that brought back the 1918 flu virus—what percentage of the population is still living who area already safe? (That being said, of course, influenza mutates relatively quickly, even in the more stable strains.)

Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 8 2005 16:56 utc | 12

@Cornered Truth
You didn’t factor in growing population concentrations in urban areas, movements of populations (such as the larger numbers going to and returning from war, or those displaced by natural disasters such as hurricanes)and lack of available health care to greater numbers of the relatively recently acutely impoverished.
I agree with Bernhard that the talk of a pandemic at this time is a calculated attempt to increase the culture of fear in which we live. However, I also agree with you that conditions which would be favorable to the transmission of communicable diseases are becoming more prevalent.

Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 8 2005 17:30 utc | 13

Top American News Stories
# Quake kills 1,700 in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan!
# DoD robot vehicles run $2 million race in Mojave!
Fear … and circuses. Bread is too expensive.
Wait, there on stage left! Send in the clowns!
We’re gonna have to get as serious as a heart attack, if we’re gonna survive through 2008.
What’s your plan of action? Raising chickens
kept a lot of kids from contracting smallpox.
Constant exposure to a natural environ, and a
constant supply of whole foods, is a win-win.
*AVIAN’S TO-DO LIST
1. Turn off the PC and TV.
2. Go for a hike in nature.
3. Eat whole foods dinner.
4. Get twelve hour’s sleep.
Then call me in the morning.

Posted by: avian tomlin | Oct 8 2005 18:41 utc | 14

@avian – wasn´t that a different recipe?
“You put the lime in the coconut, and drink them both down,
Put the lime in the coconut, and drink them both together,
Put the lime in the coconut, and call me in the morning.”
There was a big joint going around the first time I listen to that.

On the news side, there are thousands dead in new mudslides in Middle America and some 7 GIs bit the grass yesterday.

Posted by: b | Oct 8 2005 19:14 utc | 15

I’ve followed for several years…. many points/counter I’ve appreciated— these mindless dumps just show an emptiness.
Luckily these are the exceptions!
Soandso

Posted by: Soandso | Oct 8 2005 19:32 utc | 16

link
A Polk County man who operates a pornographic Web site that also displays disturbing images of Iraqi and Afghan war dead sent in by U.S. troops has been arrested on 300 obscenity-related charges.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8 2005 19:50 utc | 17

This is huge and sad:
Auto Supplier Delphi Files for Bankruptcy

Delphi, the nation’s largest auto supplier, filed for bankruptcy-court protection on Saturday, the largest filing ever in the domestic auto industry.

When G.M. spun off Delphi in 1999, the automaker agreed to pay health-care and pension benefits for Delphi retirees in the event of a bankruptcy filing within eight years. Financial analysts have projected that this provision could cost G.M. $6 billion at a time when it can ill afford more problems.
The filing could also mean that the government would have to assume responsibility for a pension fund that is nearly $11 billion short of its obligations, according to a calculation by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation obtained by The New York Times.

Delphi, which employs close to 50,000 Americans and 185,000 people worldwide, has reported losses of $5.5 billion in the last six quarters, and its cash reserves are dwindling. With half of its business coming from G.M., its fortunes have waned along with those of its former parent, and Delphi’s executive suite has been largely purged in the wake of an accounting scandal.

Delphi wanted workers to accept wages of $10 to $12 an hour, compared with the $26 to $30 an hour most make today. One union local pointed out to members in a letter last week that they would likely no longer be able to afford new cars with Delphi products if such wages were put in place, but it conceded that a better deal was not likely in bankruptcy court.

G.M. pays $1,500 in health-care costs for every vehicle produced in the United States, exceeding the cost of steel, while rivals like Toyota of Japan have nationalized health care at home and support very few American retirees.

Many analysts believe it is only a matter of time before G.M. and Ford come to the same crossroads that Delphi has reached, with Toyota, Hyundai and other rivals continuing to lure more American consumers.
In an interview last week, John Casesa, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, said a bankruptcy filing by Delphi “would signal that for the domestic automakers to compete with the foreign automakers, it requires a totally new business model that includes low-cost parts and flexible labor and balance sheets that enable investment in the latest technology.”
“To me,” he added, “it would be a body blow to the U.A.W.”

Well, that analyst is an idiot.How about a nationalized healthcare and about a managment that doesn´t look at quarter reports and what sells today but years ahead to make the right products for times to come. This is not a question of “enable investment in the latest technology”. It`s a question of long term view.

Posted by: b | Oct 8 2005 20:08 utc | 18

b, did you get my e-mail?

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 8 2005 21:49 utc | 19

White House Tapes has audio files and transcripts of presidental conversations between 1940 and 1973, including FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon.
I think all government business should be public record. If you’re saying something that can’t be heard by the public you’re not doing the public’s business. The exceptions to this are few and far between.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 8 2005 22:05 utc | 20

PBGC bank-run survivor: ‘It was like hell’
US taxpayers, jolted from their coma, run
to their banks to head off Fed melt-down
Saturday, October 15, 2005;
Posted: 11:49 a.m. EDT (15:49 GMT)
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– – –
STREAMING VIDEO
PBGC/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac collapse rocks
US Treasury and corporate bond markets (:43)
Trader describes impact of PBGC bankrupcy (:16)
President Bush urges, “Hold and go long!” (:38)
RELATED
• Gallery: Troubles ailing major US banks
• Gallery: Short and Long Rates Crossover
• Interactive: Short-selling into meltdown
• Interactive: Past US selloff magnitudes
YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
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or Create Your Own
Manage Alerts | What Is This?
NEW YORK CITY (AP) — A powerful series of Federal bankrupcies shocked the financial world today, jolting US stock and bond markets already hard-hit by a series of rapid equity selloffs.
Many US citizens ran directly to their local banks, panicked, standing in long lines at the ATM’s as early as 7:50 a.m. Eastern time, when the news was first announced.
“It was like hell,” said Norman Elliot, who lived in a top-floor apartment in Bedford Stuyvesant. “I saw the morning Fed report on CNN, and then just ran out the door towards my local bank.”
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation has attempted to quell a financial panic, promising the Fed Bank would meet in emergency session to resolve the pending triple-bankrupcy, by dipping deeply into additional Federal deficit.
The US general account deficit is currently at the highest level of loss in US history, under the Bush Administration.
“We will keep the printing presses running night and day, and add a third shift, if necessary, in order to accommodate citizen demands to cash out their bank accounts,” Fed Chairman Greenspan pleaded, his eyes sunken and hollow. “This can become an orderly correction, if you just hold!”
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist promised that just as soon as the Senate finished approvals on an additional $150B expenditure for the war in Iraq, they would begin seeking for a financial solution to the PBGC insolvency, by cutting back on Medicaid, Food Stamps and Veteran’s Benefits.
“Your Social Security Trust Fund is still safe,” he promised, looking pale and wane. “We will do everything in our collective power and go as deep into uncharted deficit as is necessary to avoid touching the third rail of American politics.”
International market observers report a rapid and sustained selloff in US$-denominated securities. Currency exchange bourses report an overwhelming flood of US$’s dumping, and the price of oil shot up US$75 a barrel overnight on the news, given the sudden global devaluation of US currency.
In Times Square, standing in the cold drizzle,
a fat lady began to sing a forlorn aria, as she
waited in line to cash out her life savings.
– – – –
Or … not! Look at it this way: long, long before you find out your investments are toast,
market traders will have churned your portfolio.
You might as well relax, and get a good night’s
sleep, because you’re gonna have to work *two*
jobs, just to pay down the Fed twin deficits,
now running over $135,000 per family of four.
¿Habla sobre la Argentina, no?

Posted by: Mary Antwil | Oct 8 2005 22:37 utc | 21

Looks like Uncle & I have been visiting the same website. Since he covered the above post, I’ll add this.
INSTACLASSIC: Jack-o-Lantern of its time.
(Coming soon to Lupin’s blog sub-section – thghts. of America!)

Posted by: jj | Oct 8 2005 22:39 utc | 22

i really think that this culture of fear – of the creation of the institution of fear especially under the aegis of mr murdoch & the specific realities of that construction needd much meditation
fears being played with has been used since time began – but the way that fear has been practically & concretely utilised is something very very modern
marcuse often spoke of false wants, of false consciousness etc – but that was when capital could provide for those closest to its proper interests – but contrary to their mythology – capital has been in real crisis these last 25 years & the ‘want’ – has been obliterated by its cousin fear
where they once sd if you are good you can have this & this & this – now they say if you do this & this & this – that & that & that could happen to you
marx of course spoke of alienation but even old karl would not have beieved how they have sold fear & of how it now surrounds the cities of our present
for to make us willing executioners they must also reach down for our hearts

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Oct 9 2005 0:35 utc | 23

b – you use terms like “scam” and “hoax” regarding the warnings of a possible pandemic sometime soon
presumably, then, you have ideas connecting those whom you believe to be behind this “hoax”, as you call it, to the ways they intend to benefit from it
would you care to explain further? perhaps i have been duped, and maybe you can explain to me why i should adopt your perspective instead

Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 1:08 utc | 24

The pandemic scare is a shoehorn to Martial Law.
If Bush’ request for authority is refused by Congress they will be accused of not protecting the American people.
An “Offer they can’t refuse”.
Straight from the Corrleone Godfather.
Does anybody doubt that he will need Martial Law before his term is up?

Posted by: pb | Oct 9 2005 4:24 utc | 25

there is a must-read diary over at dkos i’m trying to make sure gets everywhere. it’s double-super important, so don’t keep it secret!

I have written on legislation coming up for mark up in the House Administration committee addressing the verifiability of the vote previously, and have an update. The Kos community can make some major noise about this and I hope that we do!
To summarize:
Earlier this week, hundreds of you dedicated Kosmopolitans took the time to contact your Congressional Representatives asking them to support and pass HR 550, The Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act.
Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL) has now introduced an alternative bill, HR 3910, that will further muck up our ability to have a verified vote, all the while conveniently allowing for Republican cover for vote tally manipulation, voter disenfranchisement and fraud. HR 3910 is cynical, flawed legislation that will lead to further voter disenfranchisement, and do nothing to increase the accountability of our elections. It has a neat little “RealID” requirement tucked away in it as well. Sweet, huh.
LET’S NOT LET THEM GET AWAY WITH IT.

Posted by: Cedwyn | Oct 9 2005 6:44 utc | 26

@Cedwyn
LET’S NOT LET THEM GET AWAY WITH IT.
No, the solution is to let them get away w/it ,let them do everything they feel they need to. A good chess player will let his/her opponent take a bishop in order to take their king. The art of ‘Shibumi’.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 9 2005 7:07 utc | 27

@mistah – Roche Would Benefit From US Tamiflu Order

0706 GMT [Dow Jones] A big US order for Roche’s (RHHBY) flu drug Tamiflu would lead to a lot of upgrades of analysts’ sales estimates, and price targets, says Kepler Equities analyst Denise Anderson. WSJE Friday reports that US plans to order 20 million doses. Roche couldn’t immediately be reached for a comment. Kepler rates Roche buy with CHF210 price target. Roche -0.5% at CHF185.30 in negative market. (AAG)

This is just one of them. Add some folks at the WHO, some NGOs who are engaged in this and every politician that is riding on the fear wave.

Posted by: b | Oct 9 2005 7:22 utc | 28

@b:

You’re falling for something akin to the idea that “you’re either for us or against us”—and it is equally untrue. You are assuming that, because Bush and Co. lie some of the time, they lie all the time. Therefore, since they’re starting to talk about avian influenza, it means that avian influenza is a big hoax, and there is no danger. We’re lucky Bush hasn’t given any speeches recently about how important it is to keep breathing, or you would have asphyxiated by now. You’re the medical equivalent of the neocons predicting that the Iraqis would welcome U.S. troops—your position is unsupported by reality, and can only be true if a huge number of situations turn out for the best.

Flu pandemics are seriously dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous to the third world than the first. The developed world may have been running down recently, but we still have a lot of hygienic infrastructure—sewers, water purification plants, and so on—which will limit the impact of a pandemic a bit. If we are unlucky enough to have an influenza epidemic, we will be very, very lucky if it doesn’t wipe out whole ethnicities, the way the 1918 flu almost did.

Oh, you didn’t know about that? The fatality rate in 1918 in Philadelphia was about 1 in 10. That’s terrible, but it didn’t wipe Philadelphia out. But others weren’t even that fortunate: the fatality rate among infected Inuit was damn near 100%, for example; whole populations were wiped out. If the infection rate had been as high as the fatality rate, there might very well not have been any of them left today. If we let another pandemic come through which we can prevent, who knows what sorts of people might be wiped out? Native Americans? Europeans? Africans? Palestinians? Koreans? There will be no way to tell until the virus hits their populations, and by then it will be too late. I seem to recall someone telling me that supporting arbitrary death was disgusting and un-left. And here you are, telling us this is just a big fairy tale, and we can ignore it.

I’m sorry if I seem unduly angry about this, but this really pushes my buttons—it’s like you’re denying global warming. You’re a leftist, darn it, you’re supposed to be smart enough not to do that kind of thing! Leave the betrayals of the poor and defenseless to the right.

Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 9 2005 8:32 utc | 29

These hyped up scares (flu) almost happen naturally, in an atmosphere of fear and sadism. An enemy – or vehicle for panic and hate – which is invisible, unpredicable, inhuman, is perfect.
Some join in just to be visible and active (WHO) seeing it as an opportunity for becoming important. Others climb on the bandwagon as they will make a profit or get funding which was previously unavailable (Pharma, hygiene, public health, etc.) Security, law, repressive government will exploit the scare to control people; they can be open about their plans, presented as for the good of all. Ordinary citizens latch on as it makes their worries concrete, in an area where nevertheless some preventative action is possible (buying tamiflu, fleeing, etc.) The medical community comes on board. The media love it – they sell their products. Teachers get to act repressive and prissy. Dead-beat pols have something to jaw about – The Gvmt. is unprepared!

Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 8:39 utc | 30

Uncle,
Great article on fear. This is my area of interest. I believe in finding the root of our fears rather than assuming that the removal of the outside hooks we hang them on will take them away. We probably have a constant quotient of fear that has remain relatively unchanged. The difference now might be that we spread the word so quickly in this Age of Information and we describe it repeatedly in detail. Our imaginations and longing to think like the group have conjured up these immense illogical fears and much energy is spent in the effort to maintain them. How foolish people would look if they didn’t. Remember Communism? That was embarrassing.
When you hear a mighty thunderclap, the body naturally reacts with fear. But these fabricated politicized fears release hormones into the system which undermine immunity, health, and well-being. The antidote to all of this political crap is confidence. The root of this exists side by side with the fear. Spiritual belief was supposed to have triggered this confidence, but that hasn’t worked too well, probably because it’s joined the political groupthink arena.
I don’t know the secret to building fearlessness, but the fear itself can act like an antigen, if we are smart. The amount of confidence built in the immune reaction should equal the amount of fear thrust into the body.
I used this administration that way from the beginning. I normally don’t pay attention to politicians since I don’t perceive them as powerful, but I got involved with this bunch, as they represented some inner fear I had to face. I couldn’t see not putting this powerful emotion to some use, since I saw the hoax all along.
And maybe this society is responding a little bit in not jumping up for each phony terror alert. The last one got trumped by the earthquake just in time. This might be a pattern if the people are ready to let go of this calculated fear. Or maybe they are bored and need a new hook. Whatever, the evil-doing little squirming terrorists should be sent offstage. On to the next play.
This quote from the article is good:
There is always an alternative. Whether or not we are aware of the choices confronting us depends upon whether we regard ourselves as defined by our vulnerability or by our capacity to be resilient.
I will repeat my theory: Every problem comes with a solution.
We can belabor the problem ad nauseum or we can think creatively and come up with the solution. I was hoping so much that with all these magnificent minds together on the Internet, we could do the latter.

Posted by: jm | Oct 9 2005 8:50 utc | 31

Just want to add, that real fears do accompany human behavior with all the weapons and violent actions, but we learn to dodge and duck, how to predict and how to protect ourselves. There seems to be a relatively safe path through the minefield for many of us, although a surprise can be waiting around any corner. Maybe it’s part learned behavior as we learn to drive a vehicle with safety.

Posted by: jm | Oct 9 2005 9:00 utc | 32

@The Truth..
Flu pandemics are seriously dangerous. In fact, they’re more dangerous to the third world than the first.
Yes I know this and I have read about the 1918 pandemic etc.
What I am saying is:
– The chances of a pandemic have not significantly changed over the years. (The current avian bird flu virus would need some 10 very specific genetic changes to become like the 1918 virus – possible, but not likely.)
– It is good to prepare for a pandemic. What is needed are more labs to do a fast detection and analyse of a virus and spare emergency production capacity for an antidod. But this is not in the plans. To buy Tamiflu is not a plan. It only helps against specific viruses and there it reduces time/severity of the illness by only some 30% – good, but hardly good enough to make a real difference.
– The hoax I see, the scam, is the sensational play on this. The planting of fear and the profitiering from this fear.
– This has nothing to do with denying global warming or a potential threat of a pandemic. I warn against being used for schemes through the artificial created fear.
– SARS has most probably cost more lifes through the economic damage done by the panic at that time than through the illness itself. That should have been a warning.

Posted by: b | Oct 9 2005 9:17 utc | 33

Pat Lang has this interesting video (wmv) Who to invade

Posted by: b | Oct 9 2005 9:19 utc | 34

LA Times Editorial on Avian Flu Not just for the birds

FLU SEASON BEGAN EARLY THIS YEAR, at least in the media. In part this is because a major study was released last week showing disturbing similarities between the strain of flu that caused a deadly pandemic in 1918 and the avian flu virus now affecting parts of Asia. And in part it’s because a meeting of international experts to discuss avian flu started Thursday in Washington. Mostly, though, it’s because of President Bush’s summer reading list.
..
In August, Bush took John Barry’s book on the 1918 flu pandemic, “The Great Influenza,” with him on his five-week vacation in Crawford, Texas.
Since then, Bush has gotten religion on the flu.
..
All this preparation and proposed funding may seem overblown given that avian flu has killed only about 60 people since 1997. But the threat is real. The death toll has been low because the avian flu virus isn’t yet efficient at human-to-human transmission. Flu viruses mutate constantly, however, and flu pandemics are kind of like earthquakes in California — we may not get one tomorrow, but you can be sure there’s one on the horizon. Even if the H5N1 strain of avian flu now affecting Asia doesn’t become a problem, another unrelated but deadly strain of flu is all but inevitable.
..
A flu pandemic could kill many times more people than a terrorist attack, making government preparedness a necessity — and the U.S. is not well-prepared. So it’s a good thing Bush brought Barry’s book to his ranch. Maybe somebody can get the president a book on global warming for his next vacation.

Posted by: b | Oct 9 2005 9:44 utc | 35

http://www.johndear.org/articles/stopterrorism.html

Posted by: DM | Oct 9 2005 12:07 utc | 36

OMG! b, is that for real? “who to invade next” video? Goddess knowS, we certainly do deserve our rulers if this is the case… that was a sad sad commentary on Americam please, tell me it was satire.
P.S. B, Did you get my e-mail, it hasn’t bounced back

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 9 2005 13:27 utc | 37

The mortality rate of the 1918/19 flu pandemic was between 2 and 3 %. Not very high – sadly hundreds of millions did catch it.
The mortality rate of recent past ‘flus’ is very low indeed. In the US, there is a bit of myth, that flu is – has been in past 10 or 20 years – a ‘big killer’. One sees figures in the thousands (e.g. 36,000 deaths p. a.) regularly quoted. These have nothing to do with reality, deaths p.a. in the US are between 100 and 3,500 (off the cuff), and those who succumb are almost all over 65 and have some other pre-existing condition. Stats all over the developed world are similar.
Now, that doesn’t say anything much.. Certainly I can’t judge the virology, the epidemiological considerations of this ‘new’ virus.
Science, medecine and society today are better armed. In the US, so many died in early 1918 (e.g. in military camps) because of the war – the outbreaks were more or less ignored. That wouldn’t happen today. Or?
Look at SARS and how quickly that was tracked, sequenced, etc. (I’m unclear about the exact differences between SARS and avian flu.)
sars

Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 15:56 utc | 38

The mortality rate of the 1918/19 flu pandemic was between 2 and 3 %. Not very high – sadly hundreds of millions did catch it.
The mortality rate of recent past ‘flus’ is very low indeed. In the US, there is a bit of myth, that flu is – has been in past 10 or 20 years – a ‘big killer’. One sees figures in the thousands (e.g. 36,000 deaths p. a.) regularly quoted. These have nothing to do with reality, deaths p.a. in the US are between 100 and 3,500 (off the cuff), and those who succumb are almost all over 65 and have some other pre-existing condition. Stats all over the developed world are similar.
Now, that doesn’t say anything much.. Certainly I can’t judge the virology, the epidemiological considerations of this ‘new’ virus.
Science, medecine and society today are better armed. In the US, so many died in early 1918 (e.g. in military camps) because of the war – the outbreaks were more or less ignored. That wouldn’t happen today. Or?
Look at SARS and how quickly that was tracked, sequenced, etc. (I’m unclear about the exact differences between SARS and avian flu.)
sars

Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 15:58 utc | 39

sorry…

Posted by: Noisette | Oct 9 2005 16:21 utc | 40

@b

Yes, but Bush’s attempt to take advantage of the situation is a non-starter, so there’s nothing to worry about there. If we have a flu pandemic along 1918 lines, Bush will find very quickly that military law is useless. Soldiers are human, too, and viruses are practically unstoppable. They are way too small to be stopped by most filters, and in any case the soldiers would have to wear biohazard equipment 24-7, which is not feasable.

In fact, soldiers are one of the worst groups to combat a 1918-style flu pandemic. What people forget is that the 1918 flu killed a disproportionate number of adults. (This effect is masked by World War One, but is definitely there.) Usually, a graph of fatalities by age looks like a letter “U”, because diseases kill a lot of children and the elderly. The 1918 flu, though, as far as we can tell, killed people by activating their immune systems so thoroughly that their lungs got filled up with remnants of the fight. Between damage to lung cells by the virus—which is what the doctors who reconstructed the virus confirmed—and the leftover garbage, people basically drowned in mucus. Not pleasant. The curve looks like a letter “W” with a big lump wedged in the middle. Guess where soldiers fall on that curve? (I wonder if anyone tried using antihistamines on healthy adults during the 1918 flu? Suppressing the immune response might be helpful if the theory is correct.)

As for a human-eating version of H5N1 being unlikely: H5N1 mutates faster than most other types of flu, and it can swap genes with other varieties that it meets. It is entirely plausible that if there is a case of avian H5N1 infecting someone who has a human version already, the result would be exactly what everyone is worried about. And avian H5N1 is spreading in a disquieting way.

@Noisette:

Those are the overall figures. When you look at specific populations, things get worse. (Urban areas, for example, are worse, because there are more people to spread between. Given the political demographics of the U.S., a flu pandemic will have the effect of making the country even more conservative.) And there is no known way to stop the spread of flu without cutting off all travel in the infected area. (Deep down in Bush’s tiny little mind, that’s undoubtedly the idea.)

Even then, your thinking is skewed. A 2% mortality rate means that one person in fifty will be dead—in a matter of a few weeks. That’s a recipe for disaster. The difference between SARS and flu, in essence, is that SARS is both genetically stable and had a well-defined starting point. Chances are good that bird flu will be neither if it starts eating humans; flu replicates very quickly, and mutates during the process—it’s a tradeoff; you can either have fast copies or good ones. (Also, as I recall, the period during which people who have been infected are themselves infectious is different—with flu, you have both a period before getting sick and a period afterward when you are contagious.)

Science may be better armed, but most of our armaments are targeted at bacteria, not viruses. The latter are remarkably hard to fight.

One last note: the problem with flu mortality statistics is that you don’t die of flu, you die of complications like pneumonia. So: some elderly person dies of pneumonia—did they have flu? It may not be possible to tell. To a certain extent, those statistics are a guess.

Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Oct 9 2005 16:22 utc | 41

For a reasoned flu pandemic approach from someone who’s been an epidemiologist for 40 years (and these tend NOT to be right-wingers, or in the pockets of the drug companies, from my own experience working with them for a couple of years a decade ago)- see “revere” at Effect Measure
http://tinyurl.com/acqmo

Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 16:59 utc | 42

When Bush declares martial law it won’t be to preempt the flu bug. It will be to ward off his own political demise and it will happen sooner than you think. With Congressional approval and New Orleans as a prescedent, Posse Comitatus will be easy for him to implement at any time to solidify his position as Commander in Chief. Bush and the Gang are not interested in saving peoples lives they are only interested in stuff and things that represent Capital. If he wants to save American lives from the flu he should be talking about universal health care not using his military to keep people away from prevention or treatment.(quarantine}

Posted by: pb | Oct 9 2005 17:03 utc | 43

re: flu pandemic-
I read…somewhere…flu wiki? That flu virii have somewhat predictable cycles. The big one in 1918 was followed by two milder ones (a few decades apart)…and then the cycle would point to the idea of a possible harsh flu that could be pandemic.
however, it is people who work in standing water near or with chickens in substandard conditions who are most at risk, and the Asian continent is suseptible b/c of population size in cities, compared to conditions in the countryside…
But it is true that, as a world community, we have much easier and faster access to each other than in the past…so I don’t think it’s irrational to think that we could have such a pandemic.
a small example from my own life brings this idea home to me. I moved to Belgium for a while back in ’94. I had two kids, one in k-garden, one in pre-school. They attended a “parents day out” during the week while I was in classes here is the U.S.
Two days after we arrived in Belgium, both of them broke out with chicken pox. We had no idea they were incubating chicken pox while we were on the plane. any adults who had not had chicken pox would have been much harder hit by it, if they got it, than kids. But I have no idea who might have been exposed via my kids on that plane.
My kids’ half-sister, who was fifteen and grew up in Belgium, had never had chicken pox either, and she was with us during those first days and ended up in the hospital.
My ex’s ex-m-i-law was hysterical, worrying she would get that adult revived pox virus..what’s it called…shingles…and she believed the old tale that if the shingles made a band around her she would die…and her husband was in the govt. there…not exactly ppl in the sticks…
So I can imagine some of the issues if a mutated version of the avian flu were to start to travel around the band of the earth.
As for me, since I can use them anyway, I just stocked up on both tylenol-type and motrin-type…aceto-whatever and ibuprophen over the counter fever reducers to have on hand…just in case. You can take both of them at the same time to keep down raging flus. Plus lots of vitamin C and multi-vits. again, all things we use anyway. Also stuff for upset stomach and diarhrrea…which we actually don’t seem to need to use, thank goodness, but you never know. Also big things of generic tums. in fact, all these things are the generic versions.
I have gatorade and water…again, things that we’ll use anyway…to hyrdrate someone if flu is causing dehydration. I have canned soups that require no water, and crackers.
If I don’t need the canned goods, I can donate them to food banks. dehydrated bananas don’t seem to have the same benefit as fresh bananas, as far as a food to keep down (and provide potassium after dehydration) but dried fruits are also easy to get…I can get some for a buck a bag at one of those local cheapie stores.
I have emergency candles, flashlights and batteries, even an oil lamp, if electricity is a problem…plus we use them anyway…outside, or when a kamikazi squirrel makes a dive for a transformer…this happens around here at least three times a season, if not more..
I have wood and a small grill if I need to use them…and a fireplace if heat is any issue…plus I plan to use the f.p this winter anyway b/c of the cost of fuel. I had to drastically trim a tree and have firewood, plus I have all the junk I cut this summer to lift the limbs on trees.
If your family gets sick…and with kids at school, they’re in a perfect place for transmission…(plus, where I live, there are kids from 39 nations attending school together…)–you probably want your own “guarantine” sign..something on yellow paper would make an impression…again, if you don’t need it, no big deal.
one of my sons likes “ear candles” –I don’t know if they’d be useful for flu, but they help with achy ears by relieving pressure.
I don’t expect to be able to rely on any Bush govt to help me, so I’m trying to take care of my family just in case…and again, all the things to help are things that we can use otherwise, so it’s no big deal, except for buying them now.
But considering the reality of other natural disasters, like tornadoes, or massive snowstorms, or whatever the issue is where you live…none of these things are out of place to get through a disruption in services, etc. whatever the cause.
As a parent, I feel like I have to err on the side of caution.

Posted by: fauxreal | Oct 9 2005 17:06 utc | 44

@Noisette – you say, “look at SARS”
A Canadian investment firm gives considerable attention to the SARS parallel in this guide to the investment implications of a possible flu pandemic

Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 9 2005 17:08 utc | 45

James McMurtry has a new song that kinda sums things up:
Lyrics
Even a verse we can all sing (at times):
The bar’s still open but man it’s slow
The tip jar’s light and the register’s low
The bartender don’t have much to say
The regular crowd gets thinner each day
Download

Posted by: biklett | Oct 9 2005 17:43 utc | 46

Where There’s a Will, There’s a Great White Way
George Will, hopeless conservative rumentic, led US
in homage to that grandfather of sold conservativism,
that lyin’ in winter, William F. Buckley, on Today with
George Stephanopoulos.
“Without you, sir,” Will fawned, “there would be no
Goldwater nomination, there would be no Reagan
Revolution, and no end to the Cold War.” (hiccup)
[And no doubt without Reagan, the Orioles would not
have beaten the Phillies in ’83 World Series either!]
But having led US to that train, and called ‘all aboard’,
Will failed to call out the stations along that Red Line.
Without Reagan, no Western financial abandonment
of Gorbachev’s perestroika, and descent of the Soviet
peoples into permanent gulag. A Red sin of omission.
The Red’s are good at omitting things in their dialectic.
For without Reagan, no disastrously failed Star Wars
Initiative, which to this day, and hundreds of billions of
our conservatively-spent tax dollars, still does not work!
Without Reagan, no disastrously failed Savings and
Loan debacle, which led directly through Milken and
Boeski to a 1990’s stock bubble and the gold-fleecing
of Americans, to the tune of $10,000,000,000,000’s.
Without Reagan, no Iran-Contra drugs-for-arms-for-
political-intrigue, which led to crack ghetto-ization of
American’s inner cities, and lent conservative fuel to
the heartless Neo-Cultist attack, ‘See, they can’t even
help themselves,” abandonment of our Great Society.
An abandonment made crystal clear after Katrina.
Without Reagan, and Iran-Contra, no George HW Bush,
no CIA in government, no massive buildup of Defense
under his son, George W, no Homeland Security pravda,
no Sovietization of American government and economy,
no massive global Corporate Socialism.
Indeed, it’s as though Mr. Will hopped on-board Buckley’s
train, circled his head with a halo, chirping whoo-whoo, and
completely ignored the future trainwreck that conservatism
became. Without the Red’s ‘compassionate conservatism’,
the worst decline in average-joe real wages since the Great
Depression, and the third, and by far worst, twin Fed deficits
of the three ‘godfathers’ of Republicanism.
Without Reagan’s legacy, no MFN for PRC, a communist
martial dictatorship, for G-d’s sake you moron, and the start
of the worst trade death-spiral of any time in the last century.
Without Reagan’s and Bush Sr’s legacy, no invasion of Iraq,
a sectarian CIA-installed Western aligned client state, and
conservative hedge against Iranian jihad, the single worst
foreign policy decision of the last century, one still in play.
Reagan let that Dark Jinhi out of the bottle. Period.
But Mr. Will knows which side his bread is buttered on.
He knows Neo Cultism is firmly in play, and he knows
his future lays firmly at Mr. Buckley’s feet.
So he soft-balled him a final question.
“Mr. Buckley, after such a distinguished career (lengthly
plaudit-list, even including the fav harpsichord incident),
is there anything you would still like to accomplish?”
I would ask this of Mr. Buckley, as his final ode:
Sit down, put your National Review cap on, and your
Goldwater beanie spinner, click your suede shoes
together twice, one Patito, two Patito, then analyze
Neo Cultism in the wan light of your original ideals.
Barry Goldwater would be turning in his grave, sir!

Posted by: tante aime | Oct 9 2005 17:45 utc | 47

Encouraging…
ZBIG ADVOCATES GETTING OUT…w/xDems – who? Idiot-in-Chief w/Feingold?
Some 60 years ago Arnold Toynbee concluded, in his monumental “Study of History,” that the ultimate cause of imperial collapse was “suicidal statecraft.” Sadly for George W. Bush’s place in history and — much more important — ominously for America’s future, that adroit phrase increasingly seems applicable to the policies pursued by the United States since the cataclysm of 9/11.
Then he runs through all the reasons it’s suicidal, ending w/call to form bi-partisan policy. Doesn’t address what that would be, but hints at declaring victory & exiting. American debacle

Posted by: jj | Oct 9 2005 18:16 utc | 48

Sounds like Americans could be meeting w/Israelis to plan ending NeoNuts debacle…In parallel to post above from LA Times by Zbig, look what just popped up in Ha’aretz.
A Leading General, and Sharon ally, has just called for withdrawal from all occupied territory, called the Wall a Disaster, accompanied by specified in advance retaliation for violent acts by Palestinians, and determined efforts to sign a Peace. Why…he learned same thing American military people have finally learned. Occupation destroys the military, as well as the country that does the occupying. Withdraw and win
In a paper submitted three years ago, he suggested a unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In a conversation with Haaretz at the end of last week, he spoke about his principles. At a cafe on the main road from Tel Aviv to his home in Caesarea, Levine said he could not recall whether he actually talked about Israeli terror in the territories. But he is ready to say that control over another people leads to corruption and that corruption ensures defeat, and that the only question is whether the defeat will come in another two years, five years, or twenty years. These are the basic assumptions upon which his plan is built.

He believes that a declared plan for ending the occupation, combined with aggressive measures for protecting the security of Israel’s citizens, offers a chance for reaching a political-diplomatic accord and maintaining an ethical army. He has more than a feeling that this, more or less, is also the next plan of his commander and comrade, Ariel Sharon.

Can they even stop invasion of Iran?

Posted by: jj | Oct 9 2005 18:44 utc | 49

If we want we can go backwards and forwards about whether or not there is going to be a flu pandemic and if there is whether or not it will be a genetic mutation of the avian flu.
My concern is that whatever any of us decide won’t effect the outcome one iota no matter whether the pandemic develops or not.
Since I started having health issues myself I have been a lot more ‘housebound’ than I like to be and consequently have been watching far too much TV.
I have developed a preference for fictional cops and robbers type dramas. A lot of them can have me throwing anything not nailed down at the TV as people are stereotyped by race, gender, creed or economic status. However even the worst piece of Bruckheimer fascism normally makes some attempt to get a handle on people’s motives for doing what they do.
Earlier this year they began to advertise a show about ‘medical detectives’ where people from the Centre of Disease Control in the US went out and tracked down illness arrested it and brought it under control.
When I heard about I told myself to check it out as it would likely show people dealing with life and death issues in a caring way without trying to attribute blame.
I quit watching it after about the 2nd episode because what I had considered to be the show’s strength was in fact it’s weakness.
Disease doesn’t have a motive. It can’t be controlled by encouraging people to behave differently or by understanding the motives of the disease and dealing with the issues that have let those motives flourish.
The show was basically just about a mob of people lying semi-comatose in hospital beds while the ‘goodies’ tried just one more test to diagnose and treat the sickness. Boring!
Translate that into the real world and the issue isn’t whether its boring or not. The issue is whether humans can really do anything to change the spread of a disease and apart from a couple of basic things like making sure everyone washes their hands, there is very little people can do to effect the spread of a virus.
If we can’t do much why worry? The disease is going to spread or not whether or not people fret over it.
This strikes me as one of those situations where man is vainly trying to control the uncontrollabe.
Apart from this being an extremely frustrating exercise it will also distract people from issues that they can exert some control over eg the way people deal with each other.
Some have found my criticism of citizens of nations involved in colonialist adventures harsh.
Fair enough but I have always believed there is always something people can do to exert influence over the way that people hurt other people. I don’t mean that in the way that the wingnuts accuse liberals of being the 101st keyboarders either. That is that all we can do is write screeds about how fucked up everything is and send it off to make ourselves feel better but have no effect on the rate of dead and dying.
Sometimes drawing attention to an issue can help effect the way that issue is dealt with by people that can control some outcomes. A lot of the time we have to be much more subtle and take our lever in hand and spend a good deal of time looking for the fulcrum to use the lever against and ‘move the world’. As the net has grown the ability for a small group of people to effect much change by throwing light on a subject has diminished. Voices tend to get drowned out in the cacophony. But there can still be ways even if lateral thinking is required.
But in the end we need to remember that any one of us has more control over our immediate environment than the allegedly “most powerful man in the world; George W Bush” has.
There is a brilliant example of that in Robert Fisk’s autobiography which has been published in excerpts.
Fisk talks about looking up the road from Kuwait to Baghdad and seeing refugees pouring down it. There is some bureaucrat getting upset that these refugees are messing up the scenery particularly when cameras are around. An obvious acolyte of the Rumsfield school he finds this untidy and decides he needs to do something about it.
“We can’t have them just all coming down here,” one of the embassy men said to Staff Sergeant Nolde of the 1st Armored Division. “They can’t cross the border. We have no facilities to handle this. They’ve got to go back.”
It seems that once again the people who have been saved are going to be brushed from underfoot because reality isn’t at all clean cut the way life is on TV.
However Fisk goes on to say.
” But suddenly, there on this cold, damp, hellish road, all the bright sunlight of what was best about America – all the hope and compassion and humanity that Americans like to believe they possess – suddenly shone among us. For the young, tired 1st Armored staff sergeant turned angrily on the man from the US embassy. “I’m sorry, sir. But if you’re going to give me an order to stop these people, I can’t do that. They are coming here begging, old women crying, sick children, boys begging for food. We’re already giving them most of our rations. But I have to tell you, sir, that if you give me an order to stop them, I just won’t do that.” “
Apart from looking at the uplifting aspect of this story we can also draw from it the notion that when we see great injustice occuring it is possible to intervene even if the outcome could be uncomfortable for us. Sergeant Nolde could have got in a great deal of trouble, but whatever happened to him would have been pretty mild in comparison to the hundreds of families sent tottering back up the now infamous ‘Road of Death’.
Because the consequences of intervention can be personally drastic we do owe it to ourselves to try and make sure that when we do intervene we will have a chance of effecting some change.
A looming pandemic provides few opportunities for change by humans but it can distract us from what we may be able to effect.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 3:37 utc | 50

Does anyone want to see these clowns take over as the World’s Fixer?? Chinese thugs, of the stripe hired by officialdom to do their dirty work, beat a leader of the rural movement possibly to death in front of a Guardian reporter, no less. The reporter was barely able to prevent them from ripping him out of the cab & repeating their performance on him. link
One of their cartoonists has an Amusing Bush Cartoon.

Posted by: jj | Oct 10 2005 7:24 utc | 51

@jj
I guess the short answer is that no country should appoint themselves or have other countries consider them the world’s ‘fixer’.
The only country I am aware that considers that viable is the US and the scene in the Guardian today reads very much like Alabama or Mississippi when people there were fighting for their democratic rights in the 1960’s. That may seem a long time ago to some but I can still remember the shock of of hearing some redneck unashamedly tell the world that ‘These people deserved to be torn apart by dogs because they stank” or somesuch.
I realise that it doesn’t help in the slightest to say the other mob did it too. The thing is though if these types did become the world’s fixers it would be putting the same money and power rules everytime mob in charge of fixing that had just been replaced.
The tension between traditional landowners/peasant farmers and developers seeking out land in the South for industrial zones is reaching breaking point.
About the only thing anyone could hope for is that in murdering Lu Banglie in front of a Gruniad reporter these thugs may have bitten off more they can chew al la Steve Biko or James Chaney.
That doesn’t do anything for Lu Banglie of course. Perhaps the Gruniad will stay on top of this one in a way they haven’t with civilian murders in Iraq. I have no idea how prepared that newspaper is to support Bliar’s hear no evil see no evil China policy but some of the Brits at MoA might.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 8:34 utc | 52

Looks like Angela has the chancellor’s gig. This goes to show really that there is so little difference in attitudes and outlooks of your average centre left party and centre right party that voting is purely a tweedledum tweedledee exercise.
Given that in times of alleged economic crisis left governments are more effective in bringing in rightist policies and rightist governments in bringing in leftish controls, if only because opponents have nowhere to go I suspect this doesn’t bode well for the people of Germany. Schroeder and his supporters who decided they would try and retain a bit of power rather than accept defeat may well have destroyed the last remnant of credibility SPD had.
The ‘free market’ reforms will come in more stringent than they would have if Schroeder had kept power but Merkel will be able to push Schroeder out onto stage to sell them to the sheeple.
His party’s grassroots organisation, activists and any committed socialists who may be in SPD seats will desert the party which won’t matter a bit because there are easily enough self absorbed careerists in the SPD to ensure the ‘grand’ coalition will have a comfortable majority.
If the schism follows the way of leftist schisms past bitterness and resentment will prevent the SPD having any sort of rapprochment with the Greens or Left party for at least a couple of electoral cycles.
Hang in there B and co it is confronting to say the least to watch a couple of generations of hard fought for policies being jettisoned like so much dogshit.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 10 2005 13:05 utc | 53

Help wanted
“Apply” now to secure a lucrative career both decrying and luxuriating in the spoils of Big Government! No experience necessary! Don’t miss your chance to suckle greedily at America’s soon-to-be-bankrupt bureaucracy teat!
Fuck the poor !

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 10 2005 13:16 utc | 54

Truth, I don’t think we disagree about the facts at all. Our guess – estimates about the future are different?
Maybe I’m somewhat blinded by what I see as evident, in-your-face hype and scare-mongering. Bio terror, agricultural terror, germ terror: anthrax, smallpox, flu – more will follow.
Fear of diseases is a common phobia. It is easy to instill, promote.
mistah charley, thanks for the “An investors guide to Avian Flu” !

Posted by: Noisette | Oct 10 2005 14:07 utc | 55

@Debs is Dead:
There are many points at which human activity can modulate the impact of the pandemic. Most of these are at higher levels of coordination of technological/economic/political actions, but as far as one person can do something for one’s family, here are some suggestions, from DKos in June.
___________________________
Kossak G2geek writes this about the coming possible avian influenza
epidemic:
>>Ideally you want to self-quarantine yourself & family/housemates
for the first month following detection of the first case in your area.
See also Scientific American (March 2005 issue) about this: the
best way to stop a pandemic in its tracks is for everyone to stay home
(self-quarantine) for the first couple of weeks it’s in their area.
What you need to do to prepare isn’t much different than what’s
needed for your local natural disasters (storms, floods, earthquakes,
etc.).
Consider also the possibilty that routine breakdowns in utilities
and services could take longer than usual to fix, in the event the
power company, water/sewer department, and private contractors
(plumbers etc.) are short-staffed during the crisis.
For example an otherwise “normal” localized power outage that
would ordinarily be fixed same or next day, might take a few days to
fix, during which time food stored in your fridge might go bad.
Have two weeks’ to a month’s worth of food on hand. Include foods
that don’t need refrigeration and can be cooked under emergency
conditions such as over an outdoor bonfire.
Have two weeks’ to a month’s worth of clean water on hand (same
reason: in case there’s a plumbing or public water supply problem that
can’t be fixed in the normal amount of time). You can store water in
half-gallon or 2-liter juice or soda bottles that have been washed and
rinsed thoroughly. Add a couple of drops of plain chlorine bleach (not
scented bleach or bleach/detergent blends) to each container to keep
the water sanitary.
Have some cash on hand to meet emergency expenses for two weeks to
a month. Get the cash before there is any sign of a flu crisis. If you
don’t particularly like or trust your bank, move your accounts to a
local credit union, preferably one that’s small enough that they know
their customers by name: do this now, well ahead of the crisis. If
you’re in tight economic conditions, put aside a little cash every
week, whatever you can spare.
Keep your gas tank full. You’re going to buy the gas anyway, you
may as well get in the habit of filling up when you’re at 1/2 or 3/4
of a tank, rather than waiting until you’re at 1/4 or less.
Public transit is a potential hazard, if you’re riding during peak
hours under crowded conditions. See about changing your work hours so
you start and leave earlier or later than normal to avoid crowds.
Otherwise you might have to consider going to work earlier and coming
home later, even if it means wasting time at both ends.
Plan to do re-supply shopping during either the early morning or
late night hours when the stores are least crowded. Do a couple of
test runs now so you know the hours of your local grocery stores etc.
Consider the possibility that some or most stores may reduce their
hours if they are short-staffed.
Buy appropriate facemasks now. Assume one mask per day in normal
usage, or as per the instructions on the package. What you want are
masks that are rated to stop the transmission of germs. You might also
want to buy a box of disposable surgical gloves, to wear when in
public places.
Germs hang out on surfaces, and H5N1 is known to be highly
persistent. The most notorious surfaces for germs are doorknobs,
telephone receivers (especially payphones), countertops, desktops, and
light switches. Also be concerned with public drinking fountains,
vending machines, public bathrooms, anything that the general public
handles. Don’t get paranoid, just be aware and prudent.
Improve your hand-washing habits starting now. Wash your hands
before you go to the toilet as well as after (before, because you
don’t want germs from your hands getting on/in sensitive areas of your
body that aren’t exposed to sunlight). Wash your hands before handling
food or eating. Wash your hands before touching your face or blowing
your nose. Wash your hands after blowing your nose (to prevent
spreading germs to others). Wash your hands when you get home from
work each day.
Accordingly, buy more soap than normal, keep track of how much you
use, and plan to have a month’s worth at home.
Also buy a couple of bottles of “Purell” or similar alcohol-based
hand sanitizing lotion. Keep a small bottle with you when you’re out
of the house in case you need to wash your hands but can’t otherwise
(i.e. public bathroom out of soap).
Also more detergent and bleach than normal. Under some conditions
it might be prudent to change from “work clothes” to “at-home clothes”
at the end of each day, and have a good scrub or even a shower before
putting your “at-home clothes” on.
If you use public laundromats or communal washing machines,
consider they may be a risk factor (warm, humid air; other users’
infected clothing; etc.). If you can’t afford to buy a standard size
washing machine, consider a “compact washer,” decent ones cost about
$250. and can be ordered online. Otherwise, practice at washing your
clothes by hand in the sink or tub, and drying them on an outdoor or
indoor clothes line, or drying rack (about $25). Note, never hang
clothes near a heater: major fire hazard. A small fan can provide
enough air circulation to dry clothes overnight indoors.
Depending on your job, look into the option of telecommuting
(working from home), and start taking steps to make that happen (e.g.
start with one day a week, increase to two, talk to your supervisor
about going to full telecommute mode when the flu hits your area.
If you work in retail or otherwise have to deal with the public,
insist on your right to wear facemask and surgical gloves. If your
workplace is unionized, talk to your union representaties about this
issue now, and give them the facts they will need to make the case.
Consider buying one or two courses of Tamiflu for each member of
your household. If you plan to do this, do it now, because during a
crisis it may not be possible. Get a prescription and buy it from a
reputable local pharmacy; do not order via online pharmacies as there
are plenty of fake / counterfeit pills going around.
Talk to your friends and family about forming a mutual financial
support network in the event that one or more of you has to leave a
job for flu safety reasons. Organize this in advance, including the
rules that govern how much money each person should keep on hand to
contribute if it becomes necessary, what conditions justify someone
quitting a job to stay safe, how you’ll decide to allocate resources,
and so on. Have those discussions well ahead of a crisis, and write
down your agreements and have everyone sign the document.
Talk to your city government about its preparedness plans. Talk to
your city council member, your local director of public health, and/or
other officials as needed. Write to your local officials. Keep a
moderate tone when you write.
If you travel by air during the holidays, consider alternatives,
and make those plans now. The most prudent thing to do is to hold
family gatherings at times other than the usual calendar holidays.
Travel during off-peak seasons when planes are not crowded; tickets
are also cheaper during those times.
If you have to fly on a crowded plane, wear an appropriate face
mask and surgical gloves. When someone coughs or sneezes, germs can
travel up to seven rows ahead of them. When you book your tickets,
tell the booking agent you’re planning to wear a mask, and ask if
there are any security issues (i.e. people in face masks in airports).
Bring a couple of extra sets of masks and gloves with you in your
carry-ons when you fly. When you board the aircraft, politely ask the
flight attendant to make a safety announcement to ask people to cover
their mouths with a tissue if they have to cough or sneeze. If you’re
seated next to someone who appears to be ill, ask to be moved further
back in the airplane.
That was supposed to be a short list. Hmm. Most of this stuff is
basically minor inconvenience, and it could save your life. Just take
reasonable steps, and put up with the inconveniences. The risks of
wasted time and money in the event this turns out to be a false alarm,
are a heck of a lot less than the risk to your life if this is
anywhere near as serious as it appears.<< _____________________ http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2005/5/29/15133/0560/18#18%22

Posted by: mistah charley | Oct 10 2005 16:03 utc | 56

Shades of Y2K. LOL!
Just eat right, exercise, sleep enough, avoid stress-inducing people, get a few laughs a day, listen to music, pet the dog/cat.

Posted by: gylangirl | Oct 11 2005 0:59 utc | 57