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New Orleans’ Biggest Enemy
The powers that are will try to keep as many people away from New Orleans as long as possible. Just like in Iraq, they will spend as much money as possible with friendly contractors, before hiring the first local guy. Keeping the locals out, will make this easier.
That little beast below will be their excuse, even after the city will have been pumped dry.
Mayor Ray Nagin said he had asked the President personally to immediately start spraying. With each new generation of mosquitoes, with each week, the problem will increase immensely.
So where are the spray planes? They are needed NOW.
It is also a general mistake to keep the population out, when provisioning is possible. You need the people to restart the economy. Who will reopen a shop, if there is nobody to buy stuff? Build tent cities in the dry parts of the city and ask people to come back. Pay them to clean the city. Start it NOW.
You can deliver electricity, water and sewage infrastructure to a tent city. There is no need to keep people without any privacy in the Astrodome. Start it NOW.
–bit old, response to other threads, anyway–
A proper catastrophe management system should predict, prevent, guard against, and then rescue, relieve, manage, and repair as best as possible. This is understood by everyone, even if the operational details are murky. Usually, it is the rescue/relief part that is uppermost in mind, as we all know that accidents and catastrophes are exceptional and often truly unpredictable, and lives are then at stake.
The only way to satisfy the largest number, and do the best job, is by:
a) making the communit(ies) participate in planning, understand the risks and possible measures, etc. Delegate..or set up a command structure in some other way.
b) maintain communication before, during and after. Authorities, Gvmts. who do not communicate with their citizens at the possible / appropriate point in time (sometimes only after; in the case of NO, years before and then a few days before..) are no longer Authorities. Without contact, the natural – that is, accepted by all parties – dominant cum cooperative role is lost.
That is what took place in NO. For example, I have asked (elsewhere): Did NO have sirens? Did NO citizens know that it was necessary to have about one battery operated radio per Appt. block / house / industrial building / etc ? I suppose not, though the experts questioned considered me foolish and didn’t answer – one response was that in America everyone has TV!
c) Be prepared to use the forces present on the ground, and those that are very nearby, specially if road-out or transport-out is in some way predicted. This comes back to a) and setting up chain-of-command, etc.
d) Complete transparency throughout. Loss of life may be inevitable.
e) Post – event analysis, done by experts, not pols or concerned citizens, interest groups, etc.
Other recent hurricanes / typhoons:
Last September, a Category 5 hurricane battered the small island of Cuba with 160-mile-per-hour winds. More than 1.5 million Cubans were evacuated to higher ground ahead of the storm. Although the hurricane destroyed 20,000 houses, no one died.
Truthout
At least 1.5 million Cubans were evacuated to higher ground ahead of the storm, and early Monday, Cuban President Fidel Castro toured parts of western Cuba, which was ravaged by Hurricane Charley a month ago.
CNN
Sept. 1 2005. China evacuated more than 790,000 people as powerful Typhoon Talim slammed into its east coast yesterday after barrelling across Taiwan, where it left three dead and dozens injured.
smhAu
Googling will bring up more varied sources / better info.
Posted by: Noisette | Sep 5 2005 17:38 utc | 12
Himalaya Dreaming
First, if your home was flooded up to the gills, then your insurance company would move you into a motel, while some low-bid contractor stripped the sheet-rock and insulation from the walls, ripped the carpeting and pads off the floor, basically tore the whole building back down to its frame.
Multiply that times 500,000, and it’s easy to see why the city was evacuated, especially since its now under defacto martial law.
The mayor may claim the city can be drained in a couple of days or weeks. He’s not doing the math. Those 3000# sandbags lobbed into the breach are a disaster waiting to happen. They were meant to staunch the flood, not become a levee. They are going in still, because of bureaucratic inertia.
So as the water is pumped down, the levees will have to be rebuilt correctly. This will take more than weeks to accomplish. I’d guess many months.
Then, and only then, can non-emergency crews move safety about the city, tearing out an incredible volume of ruined wallboard, insulation, fixtures, finishes, trims, a virtual pyramid to the sun, and that’s just the commercially-insured stuff.
Then Der Bush will have to decide how Congress is gonna spin $50,000,000,000 out of flax straw, so that people can apply for FEMA loans. Add another $100,000,000,000 for Fed administrative overhead.
That’s going to take at least two months. More.
With the ongoing war in Iraq, you and I will be
$250,000,000,000 deeper in deficit by December.
Then you’re going to have to find four qualified craftspersons per each house, times 500,000. More tradespeople than exist in all the entire United States, to start the tearoff and reconstruction.
The greatest construction boom since Alaskan Oil.
It takes about three months or so to tearoff and rebuild a typical house, back to liveable use. Figure you will get maybe 50,000 tradespeople
at most, you’re looking at 30 months to get all the insured and uninsured housing back in shape.
Add another $15,000,000,000 for the attorneys and their class-action delays to FEMA settlements.
Add another $5,000,000,000 to buy up the 500,000
ruined vehicles, before they get cleaned up and detailed and sold “as-is” in some northern used- car lots to suckers next spring. A “new” Caddie!
Now you’re pushing up against the 2008 elections.
In fact you’re pushing hard. So Der Bush will have to goose the reconstruction program with a IDIQ cost-plus time-plus-overtime-plus-materials general contractor. HAL-KBR is already in line.
You can expect the final ribbon-cutting on the final home, with a new car in the final driveway, and a bright Red-White-and-Blue bow and balloons, sometime around the 4th of July, 2008.
You and I will be $1,250,000,000,000 deeper in deficit by then. Who cares?! The re-construction boom, (and the Canadian tar sands boom), will be the greatest reconstruction since the Civil War.
The Republicans are going to take that election in a cake-walk, with visual emoticons like that.
A Neo Thousand Year Reich is almost a done deal.
– – – – – – – – – – – –
P.S. Mosquitoes don’t bite dead people! They can’t breed until they find a living victim,
rather like the Fed pol’s of WA DC.
P.P.S. Congress must *immediately* overturn its softwood lumber tariff against Canadian imports!
P.P.P.S. If, as the technical journals are now saying, tar sands can be recovered for less than $5 per ton, which equates to one or two barrels, which means Canadians can sell a billion barrels of recovered tar sands crude oil for under $15,
then Congress better do their homework on trade issues now, before an approaching tidal wave of intra-continental prosperity washes over US:CN.
The Canadians, in their right, had better start marching on Ottawa, making damn sure those tar sands royalties go to the Canadian people, and not HAL-KBR-ARAMCO-ROYAL-DUTCH-SHELL. Not for nothing did the people of Alaska demand, and get, their share of royalties from public lands oil.
Every Alaskan gets $1000 check, every year. And each check is plowed right back into the economy.
– – – – – – – –
The business of Corporate-Socialist government is to make sure the maximum rate of extraction of capital is fiated away from the people, with the largest possible share of that capital siphoned off into the bank coffers of the elite, and the greatest possible burden for maintaining that extraction is laid on the heads of the people.
Rather like a range-cattle operation. Move ’em up, head ’em out. Tag ’em, and bag ’em. Yahoo!
Posted by: tante aime | Sep 5 2005 19:17 utc | 13
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