But what happens if Sunni nationalists and Shi’a nationalists (Sadr’s people) form a more effective alliance — not just to campaign against the constitution, but to wage guerrilla war against the ruling coalition and the American forces supporting it? The U.S. Army proved last year it can wipe the floor with Sadr’s militia in a head-on battle, but what if the Sadrists adopted the same sneak-and-run tactics as the Sunni insurgents?
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August 25, 2005
WB: Only Make Believe
Comments
Lebanon on steroids, with a supersize side of crystal meth.
Posted by: Jeff (no, the other one) | Aug 25 2005 18:49 utc | 1
Sadr is from a very nationalist family (anti Persian too) and has often negotiated with the Sunnis. His main force is in Baghdad. Baghdad would be a very poor city if the “federal” states north and south become more independent and keep their oil revenues.
The Sunni guerilla can get all the finance it needs from Saudi sources (who want to keep Iran as far away as possible). Sadr can get a share of that or just ask his poor followers for some (they are dirt poor but there are millions and guerilla war is cheap). All they have to agree on is nationalism, not really hard to do.
I am sure they will join forces. The question is if or when they will share military leadership too. When that happens those 150 convoys a day the US military depends on will have a huge problem. No mew DVD’s for GI Joe’s collection plus MRE three times a day instead of fresh steaks makes for unhappy troops.
The slaughter will be incredible.
We have little reliable news on this, but I have to figure this fighting started now BECAUSE the language of the constitution is starting to be known, and the “official” losers in the parliament can now see that they’re about to be handed something they find worse than war.
And if you follow the way that empire fashions come home, remember that this is only Iraqi’s problem for the moment – the people who backed the SCIRI all the way on this screw you constitution are our up-and-coming twenty-something Young Republicans who run the Green Zone.
I grew amongst “The South will rise again” fantasists who longed to refight the Civil War, and it looks like their demons are doing just fine, thank you. We are going to have to know how things work in the Green Zone if we want to grasp the fight that is upon us already.
Posted by: citizen | Aug 25 2005 19:46 utc | 4
@citizen – I think hardly anyone outside the green-zone cares what happens inside the green-zone.
If you need water, food, electricity, healthcare you will go to the one who delivers. Sadr delivers. SCIRI and Dawa had a public election platform of “get the the US out in six month”. They didn´t deliver, Sadr delivers. They promised better services. They didn´t deliver. Sadr delivers as good as he can.
The street is now starting to really vote after the first election teached them how not to vote. This time it´s not ballot boxes “counted” exclusively by Allawi men three days before announcing some result. They will vote, in a majority, not with weapons, but by being the sea the guerillas need to swim. And swim they will.
I do not disagree with your positive point, but the Green Zone is not inert, not without causal forces for our future. Who is today’s young Colin Powell? I don’t know. Does anyone? Young Rumsfeld?
Some bad non-news happening inside the Green News that does matter:
1) Death squads logistics
2) indoctrination of the next generation of American polito-paths
3) $130 million funding per day which goes somewhere in the world
Posted by: citizen | Aug 25 2005 21:39 utc | 8
I wonder whether it is at all possible to create something akin to a ‘just solution’.
Don’t the Sunnis simply have unrealistic expectations? From what I hear they want a non-federal Iraq because of the oil (which they don’t sit on), but without the legal protection of federalism they will be a hapless minority.
The only group that is in a always-win situation are the Shia. Either they get to rule through democracy or they break away with their oil.
And what b says is true, the Mafia in Sicily holds its power by making sure that it is the only institution that delivers certain services: protection, permition to open businesses, quasi-justice, access to water sources, special doctors in hospitals, etc. It does so by making the democratic state weak and irrelevant.
Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Aug 25 2005 21:40 utc | 9
Bu$hCo want all the Chaos they can create in Iraq.
A terrorist training ground for the next decade? Great!
Because you can’t take home a blank check without endless war, and baby, they’ve got it rolling here.
kelly b. wrote:
Bu$hCo want all the Chaos they can create in Iraq.
So do the rest of the Arabs, which is why all of them w/buckolas are pouring money into the resistance. And actually so do American citizens. A quagmire there is the only hope of keeping NeoNuts from invading Syria & Iran. (I heard Sy Hersh speech today from 11/04 @Hampshire College – he said there are no other brakes on these loonies. They’ve eliminated all internal institutional resistance. Everyone left either is on board w/NeoNut agenda, or cares more about too much about their career to oppose them.) Unless they can be tossed out of office… So, let Chaos Thrive… Save Syria, Iran, xAmerica & the rest of the world from the xAm. Machine of Death.
Posted by: jj | Aug 26 2005 1:50 utc | 11
Also excellent Iraq post by:
Larry C. Johnson
Col. Patrick Lang
Juan Cole in Salon
Joe Conason also in Salon
Gen. Wesley Clark sticks to his Iraq illusions in a WaPo OpEd
Bush Steps In as Charter Talks in Iraq Reach Breaking Point
Talks over the Iraqi constitution reached a breaking point on Thursday, with a parliamentary session to present the document being canceled and President Bush personally calling one of the country’s most powerful Shiite leaders in an effort to broker a last-minute deal.
Mr. Bush intervened when some senior Shiite leaders said they had decided to bypass their Sunni counterparts, as well as Iraqi lawmakers, and send the document directly to Iraqi voters for their approval.
A bit desperate GW, are we?
i believe that most people underestimate how many moderate iraqis want to keep the country together. pre-desert storm, iraqis were much better off than most of their neighbours. better food, healthcare, and general living conditions. for the middle east, they had things pretty good.
Posted by: lenin’s ghost | Aug 27 2005 3:23 utc | 14