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Katarina and the Iraq Constitution
One has to have priorities:
"We are facing a storm that most of us have feared," [Mayor] Nagin said. "I do not want to create panic, but I do want the citizens to understand that this is very serious and it’s of the highest nature. About 70 percent of New Orleans is below sea level, and is protected by a series of levies.
Katrina could inundate New Orleans, August 28, 2005
Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions.
NOAA: Global Warming and Hurricanes
Kyoto is, in many ways, unrealistic. Many countries cannot meet their Kyoto targets. The targets themselves were arbitrary and not based upon science. For America, complying with those mandates would have a negative economic impact, with layoffs of workers and price increases for consumers. And when you evaluate all these flaws, most reasonable people will understand that it’s not sound public policy.
President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change, June 11, 2001
The cost of cleaning up storm damage will balloon unless the world takes urgent action to cut harmful emissions warming the globe, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) said on Wednesday.
Global Warming to Raise Storm Damage Costs – Insurers, June 29, 2005
Changing climate also increases the vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding. A higher sea level raises the flood level from a storm of a given severity. A 3-foot rise in sea level (for example) would enable a 15-year storm to flood many areas that today are only flooded by a 100-year storm. …
EPA: Global Warming Impacts: Coastal Zones
I.4. We further reaffirm that core values and principles, such as respect for human rights and human dignity, freedom, equility, solidarity, tolerance, respect for nature, the rule of law, shared responsibility, multilateralism and not resort to the threads or use of force in a manner inconsistent with the Purpose of the United Nations are essential for peaceful coexistence and cooperation among States.
US (Bolton) revision #2 (large PDF), August 2005
"Revised draft outcome document of the High level Planing Meeting of the General Assembly of September 2005 submitted by the President of the General Assembly",
(italic: inserted by US, stroke: deleted by US)
Hurricane Katrina is now designated a category five hurricane. We cannot stress enough the danger this hurricane poses to Gulf Coast communities. I urge all citizens to put their own safety and the safety of their families first by moving to safe ground. Please listen carefully to instructions provided by state and local officials.
On another matter, today Iraqi political leaders completed the process for drafting a permanent constitution. Their example is an inspiration to all who share the universal values of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. The negotiators and drafters of this document braved the intimidation of terrorists and they mourn the cowardly assassination of friends and colleagues involved in the process of drafting the constitution.
Statement by the President on Hurricane Katarina and the Iraq Constitution, August 28, 2005
Geopolitical Diary: Monday, Aug. 29, 2005
August 29, 2005 06 17 GMT
Things are proceeding as expected in Iraq: the Sunnis have not signed off on the constitution yet. There was a suicide bombing in Israel. Jesse Jackson has offered his support to Hugo Chavez. However, these are not the main geopolitical stories at the moment. Hurricane Katrina is. We normally do not deal with natural disasters, but this one has massive geopolitical implications that must be considered carefully because New Orleans is one of the key points in North America.
The importance of New Orleans isn’t Bourbon Street; rather, it is the river complex that drains the United States between the Appalachians and the Rockies. These rivers all eventually flow into the Mississippi, and the last major city on the way to the Gulf and Europe and Asia is New Orleans. If the Mississippi became impossible to navigate for any extended period of time, the consequences for the U.S. economy would be incalculable.
The Port of South Louisiana, which runs along the river north and south from New Orleans, handles more cargo than any other port in the United States. It is the fifth-largest port in the world, larger than Nagoya. Much of the port and river are protected by huge levees. If those levees fail, one potential outcome is that the Mississippi, which is notorious for rerouting itself, could do so again — and do so in such a way that it becomes impassable without massive engineering.
Now, the consensus is that the levees on the river will hold, even if the levees on Lake Pontchartrain do not. In other words, New Orleans might be devastated, but the river will remain open. But there are two dangers. The first is cross-currents, which the levees are not built to contain; however, water levels are low enough that this probably won’t happen. The second is the possibility that a large ship — and there are some big ones on the river — could hit a levee, breaking through it. Katrina will be ripping ships from their moorings, and this is a real threat.
There is a danger south of the city, near the mouth of the Mississippi. Those exits could shift or silt up quickly. It is assumed that if that were to happen, equipment would rapidly clear up the problem. But consider: If the hurricane hits hard, what will be the condition of the equipment and its operators? What would take a matter of days in normal circumstances could become a matter of weeks or longer.
There is also the issue of Louisiana’s oil industry. The offshore platforms are shut down, and most will ride out the storm without problems. But Louisiana has a vulnerable point — the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP. It is the only facility in the United States where supertankers can dock. There is a real threat, if there are 30-foot surges in that area, that the LOOP could be damaged significantly. That, along with a refinery in Louisiana and one in Mississippi that are both vulnerable to major flooding, could seriously affect global oil markets.
There is a final consideration. If New Orleans is underwater for weeks or months, and most of its people are evacuated or killed or hurt, who will man the ports, warehouses and refineries — assuming these facilities are functioning? New Orleans is home for the work force that runs these facilities. Grain flows down the Mississippi on barges. It is offloaded into giant storage facilities and loaded onto ships for the world markets. Even assuming that the river can be navigated, those storage facilities may not be available — and if they are, their employees will be unable to return for work.
These are all speculations at this moment, but they are not outrageous ones. Consider just two. The harvest is just starting in the Midwest. Much of the produce goes down the Mississippi to Europe, Asia and Latin America. If the river is blocked, it isn’t going anywhere. Consider the consequences to the food industry supply chain globally. Or consider this: If the United States involuntarily cuts oil purchases, the price of oil will surge in the United States, but globally it will decline. You wind up with almost two markets. Some of this oil can be shuffled around from one port to another, but not for weeks on end.
The consequences of a breakdown in the Port of South Louisiana and the LOOP would have economic consequences far in excess of those from the Sept. 11 attacks, which hit pretty hard. This would affect global food and oil markets. The problems could be solved in days, or could take months to fix. The unknowns at this point are enormous. Katrina might have no effect whatever on trade — but if its only effect is to displace the population of New Orleans for a few weeks, that will be effect enough on the global economy.
Posted by: Greco | Aug 29 2005 11:14 utc | 17
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