Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 22, 2005
WB: Spring Time for Khomenei

But it may be that the current alternatives — which might, God forbid, include the use of tactical nukes against Iran’s hardened research labs — are so grim and so scary that even the neocons are finally behaving like rational chumps, instead of crazy ones. For a change.

Spring Time for Khomenei

Comments

A European friend of mine and I were talking,
and you can understand everything going on
today in the US with three simple sentences:
The United States’ current account deficit and
structured payments (SSTF etc) is the largest
deficit in the world, currently -180% of total
value of all US assets, personal and corporate.
The Iraq current account deficit and structured
payments, though large, are only a small fraction
of the total value of all Iraqi assets, mostly in
its oil sector, the 2nd largest pool of crude.
The Iran current account deficit and structured
payments is the lowest in the world as a percent
of its personal and public assets. By far the
lowest in the world, they haven’t been supersized.
The American Economic System is a Vampire Culture.

Posted by: lash marks | Jul 22 2005 19:41 utc | 1

Welcome to Iraqan – the Shia Theocratic Stronghold by the Persian Gulf!
Yes, it truly is beginning to look as if the Iranians (who it is claimed invented Chess) have played a deeper game against Wolfowitz and Perle.
(BTW – (Ali) Khomenei is alive and the Grand Ayatollah of Iran’s Supreme Council, while Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has been dead for a while).

Posted by: SteinL | Jul 22 2005 19:58 utc | 2

Shorter Billmon: We’re so fucked.

Posted by: arcane | Jul 22 2005 20:01 utc | 3

Google “AF 2025” the Pentagon’s vision
for global full spectrum dominance in
the next decades.
It was listed, in it’s 30,000 pages of
mad insanity, at:
http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/
-and linked at-
http://www.maxwell.af.mil/au/2025/index2.htm
If you try to find it today, you get this,
which I should point out is a US military
website giving a 404 in *GERMAN*
“Objekt nicht gefunden!
Der angeforderte URL konnte auf dem Server
nicht gefunden werden. Der Link auf der
verweisenden Seite scheint falsch oder
nicht mehr aktuell zu sein. Bitte informieren
Sie den Autor dieser Seite über den Fehler.
Sofern Sie dies für eine Fehlfunktion des
Servers halten, informieren Sie bitte den
Webmaster hierüber.
Error 404
http://www.au.af.mil
Fri 22 Jul 2005 02:44:22 PM CDT
As I’ve said, many, many times, we are
already living in the Fourth Reich today.
Do I have to draw you a picture of the
Reichstag, the Polish Blitzkreig and
the Lebensraum gambit?
Full-scale WW3 is only a heartbeat away.
I wonder what future newsreels will look
like of Americans cheering the Wehrmacht.

Posted by: lash marks | Jul 22 2005 20:05 utc | 4

Maybe they are really geniuses and the Iraq invasion only formed part of the case for war against Iran. It also kept bubble-boy happy since he had such a hardon for Saddam.
Seriously, they were never going to stop with just Iraq. But don’t have the resources needed to take on anyone else unless they include nukes in the arsenal. Maybe the great slumbering American public will finally wake up and stop them — because it doesn’t look as if anyone else is going to do it.

Posted by: Marie | Jul 22 2005 20:38 utc | 5

(BTW – (Ali) Khomenei is alive and the Grand Ayatollah of Iran’s Supreme Council, while Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has been dead for a while).
Thanks for the correction. Google steered me wrong — again.

Posted by: Billmon | Jul 22 2005 20:39 utc | 6

I actually beleive Khomenei took the name Rahollah to be even closer identified with Khomeini.
At any rate, the sheer joy of reading a sentence such as this one made my day:
It may be that an Iran with nukes would not lead to Armageddon in the Middle East (well, actually Armageddon is in the Middle East, about 30 miles east of city of Haifa. But you know what I mean.)

Posted by: SteinL | Jul 22 2005 20:54 utc | 7

I have come very late to reading you Billmon. First, I like your writing style, second, your take on any subject and last, because your content is sometimes like a really scary horror movie..except it is real! Keep writing..you’re a ball of fire.

Posted by: paulie | Jul 22 2005 20:55 utc | 8

*cough*
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with an ‘a’ not an ‘o’, is the person you infidels are having trouble identifying.

Posted by: Nugget | Jul 22 2005 21:03 utc | 9

well nugget the old & very reverend khamenei just looks like an iranian version of dick cheney to me & tho i detest him from the bottom of my heart – if the maericans should touch a hair on his head – i would wish their armies the most bloody retribution
one part of me cannot conceive of the stupidity that would allow any form of military attack on iran let alone a nuclear one yet…. yet….. yet – i could not imagine the madness that passes for policy these days. an attack on iran – even a nuclear attack on iran is consistent with that madness
what has happened in england is small potatoes militarily & strategically yet instinctually – contrary to my otherwise bleak opinion of the capacity of the thousand ‘al qaedas’ – the extreme efficacity & simplicity of those attacks seem to serve as a warning of things that are coming, immediately & i think it will be very grand indeed
u s imperialism needs to turn up the fire a few notches while they are trying to get kim jong il off metamphetamines – & it seems that fire is coming in the direction of iran. even 6 months ago i would have thought it hardly impossible as the imperial armies are losing catastrophically in iraq – their only real option is to extend it into iran. in that case i hope the iranians are not all talk & no action – because this moment in our time, the time of humanity depends on a decisive response to the military force of u s imperialism
that imperialism is being defeated discreetly in latin america – with the full support of the people – that option is not open for either the arab ppeople or the persians. on the contrary if ever those people needed to articulate military necessity – it is now. not only for them but for all of us
at the beginning of all this – i sd i wished a diem bien phu or a stalingrad on the americans – not because i like to see the taking of blood but for an ancient truth – the only thing, the only real thing imperialism understands is force, violence & defeat militarily & otherwise

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 22 2005 21:23 utc | 10

I’ve read children that torture animals invariably grow up to be mentally disturbed sociopaths. Didn’t Dubya have such a history? He probably ranks most foreigners about the level of dogs & cats and firecracker-in-the-butt frogs. Nuking Tehren isn’t much of a stretch.

Posted by: steve duncan | Jul 22 2005 21:25 utc | 11

Pretend you’re a neocon and imagine how much better everything would be today if we could have kept our pet Middle Eastern dictator Saddam (who of course whould have been one of those “good” dictators who are our allies against the “evil” freedom-hating dictators) leash trained as a counterbalance to Iran. Even throwing him Kuwait as a bone could have been rationalized (in the same political end-justifies-the-means way as it is now ok to out a covert CIA agent) if the current situation was the least bit forseen.
We could more control of Iraq than we do now occupying it ourselves, probably enough to have made sure that Saddam wouldn’t be able to produce or use WMD’s (on us or our allies at least, which is all that matters). We could get all Iraq’s oil as part of the deal, and have him fight the real terrorists in Iran for us, without spending a single American life.
Haliburton would probably get a lot less money in this scenario, though, so maybe that’s why it never happened.

Posted by: Philosophy | Jul 22 2005 21:30 utc | 12

Dick Nixon’s “madman theory” — acting like a genocidal maniac in hopes of convincing the other side that you really might be a genocidal maniac
Well, I guess it’s only a theory, only if you happen not to be Vietnamese…

Posted by: bcf | Jul 22 2005 21:34 utc | 13

Ahhh! The only lesson to be learned from any of this is that intervention in another country’s affairs will guarantee blowback. The way the world is at the moment just the slightest inference that the US is involved in the internal affairs of a country will cause an extremely hostile reaction from within that country.
The New Zealand election season is just getting underway a subject that should only be marginally interesting to kiwis let alone anyone outside. Yet the whole thing took on a whole new frisson when a government minister scored an own goal last week by alleging that the opposition conservatives were being funded by the US. It transpired that the mystery ‘bagman’ had been funding both parties. heheh what a surprise!
Those who have played a board game called Diplomacy can attest like Billmon that geography is supreme in countries relationships with each other. The board is a map of Europe circa 1914, players are alloted a country each and generally find that their behaviour mirrors that of the actual history of that nation. Germany has to create a secure passage to the sea at the same time as it resists threats from East and West, Britain always has a defensive advantage because of it’s island status, France becomes everyone elses battleground, Italy can really only invade North Africa etc.
It is totally frustrating that after thousands of years of evidence to the contrary that careerist diplomats, spies and politicians still think they can exert any long term influence over another nation.
The last para in Billmon’s post is terrifying because it is so absurd yet so believable. The use of nukes anywhere much less the mid east will open the floodgates to allow any of the many psychologically vertically challenged despots around the world who have their ‘finger on the button’ to open their greasy old raincoat and flash the rest of the world with their malformed little nuke.
We have to have more faith in the human condition than that. There’s no doubt that people in the US have been exposed to a culture of unquestioning obedience to executive authority, especially in the military. I don’t believe though that all the necessary humans in the nuke chain of command can be reduced to the automations that nuking Iran with no evidence of an attack on the US would require.
Yes the Nazis found thousands of people prepared to be ‘good germans’. They did that by dehumanising their targets Jews, Gypsies and Commies. This sort of an operation would require the dehumanisation of self along with that of the enemy because the consequence of nuking anywhere in the Middle East is pretty plain for most.
The US military has already lost whatever ‘trust’ it had in this administration and the careerists amongst them will be quite prepared to draw up ‘contingency plans’ but they are very different from the 9 to 5ers who are going to have to implement the plan.
I admit I could be completely wrong on this but if I am I reckon it would be fair to say that humanity deserves what would certainly happen next.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 22 2005 21:43 utc | 14

re: the Fauxreal map in the previous thread – it is actually worse than that – they have “advisors” in the Caucasus – georgia, etc.

Posted by: ed_finnerty | Jul 22 2005 21:46 utc | 15

Billmon is so on the money here…….. except………. what will be the reason to nuke Iran?

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 22 2005 21:49 utc | 16

@CP: did you read the other thread? They’ll nuke Iran after another 9-11 type attack on the US, whether or not Iran actually has anything to do with the attack.
Then read “Crossing the Rubicon” and be afraid, be very afraid.

Posted by: catlady | Jul 22 2005 21:57 utc | 17

Most of us already know that the neocons, for all their macho swagger, are chumps — like the elementary school nerd who gives a girl a fiver to “let them feel something soft,” and then blinks stupidly when she guides his hand to his own downy cheek.
Brilliant, Billmon, and so true. In fact, if we weren’t talking about something as serious as the future of humanity, all this would be very, very funny. As your headline suggests, this really is becoming like a Mel Brooks movie, with a little Stanley Kubrick thrown in.

Posted by: Phil from New York | Jul 22 2005 22:31 utc | 18

Maybe the interactions between even da’wa and the mullahs is more complicated. the fact Ibrahim al-Jaafari did what he did–should the trip be automatically read as a public declaration of da’wa’s subsumption by tehran? I doubt it.
Also, not to mention the fact as Riverbend (can’t find it right now) pointed out, there is great distrust for da’wa visavis Iran–distrust shared among sh’ia like sadr (sort of strange because his dad was spritual leader of da’wa), not only because of the Iran connection, but also because jaafari was noncondemnatory of fallujah massacre.
As for the US strategy in all this? Many more questions raised than answered here. very complicated.

Posted by: slothrop | Jul 22 2005 22:36 utc | 19

Dick Nixon’s “madman theory” — acting like a genocidal maniac in hopes of convincing the other side that you really might be a genocidal maniac
Well, I guess it’s only a theory, only if you happen not to be Vietnamese…

Good point. I should have said: “genocidal nuclear maniac.”

Posted by: billmon | Jul 22 2005 22:49 utc | 20

Billmon wrote: “It should be obvious why I badly want to believe that this is a bluff or a ruse. The alternative is that the Vice President of the United States and his trained seal are contemplating the ultimate war crime.”
Beliefs are held in the absence or denial of proof. If you can name one positive political development in the past ten years, I shall hear it gladly. If not, I suggest it’s time to relocate to a safer location.

Posted by: Frank Kelly | Jul 22 2005 22:57 utc | 21

The administration is telling Iran to go easy on any deals with al-Jafari’s government, I guess.
At any rate, it’s a little fishy that it’s Cheney’s name that is fronted here. They’re pretty good at setting up the Preznit on initiatives, and with all the criticism of Bush not being in charge, this doesn’t look that good, to begin with.
Then there’s the fact that the Pentagon has contingency attack “books” dealing with any kind of event and enemy. They probably started working on the Iran book before they put the Shah in to place as the ruler of Iran, and it must have gotten a solid revision during the Carter presidency.
After the toppling of the Saddam statue, the Neo-Cons were swinging their balls in the wind and wanted to go for Teheran, so the book must have been updated solidly, and regularly.
Attacking Iran, at any rate, is truly for the madhouse. The place is twice as large as Alaska, mountainous and inaccessible, and they’ve had time to prepare.
Who knows, maybe the Neo-Cons are going for 1000 dollar oil barrels? Now that they have Texas online and profitable again, with oil over 50USD, we’ll could soon see old Oklahoma oil wells coming back on stream, I guess.
I’m not saying this is a canard. Plans for attacking Iran have been in the works since Khomeini threw out the Shah.
I’d advise that any Americans living outside the USA be given time to move home before the attack. The rest of the world will be furious, and there will be collateral damage, to use one of the favorite phrases of the idiots in the White House.

Posted by: SteinL | Jul 22 2005 23:09 utc | 22

nugget
perhaps i’m nostaligic (i am not normally so) for a pan arabism that is heavily weighted by a socialist impulse – but the history has not been so good – they have even been murdered by agents of the u s, mpcal tyrants, groups who wanted to subvert them & unfortuantely their own comprimises & lack of direction
no where is that more apparent with palestinian leadership – who when their voices started to be heard even in the west – these were largely secular voices – habbash, haddad etc – then he plo leadership was heavily influenced by other liberation movements. now i do not know how deep that ‘marxism’ was – or simply liberation movemebt rhetoric – nor do i know today whether the non secuamr is also skin deep but that is not my comprehension
everywhere there is the rush towards absolutes & i understand the physical necessity of absolutes when ou have a gun in your hands & are defending your earth your people or your nation but the very inflexibility inherent in absolutes never allow for flexibles responses to concrete actions
it is deeply ironic – darkly ironic – that a man who livied in a cell in robbens island had both the flexibility & an almost divine talent for strategy. not only mandela but sisulu, slovo, hani – there was a largeness in their response that still humbles me – they never ever resorted to easy absolutes. steve biko at the height of his black nationalism was a very very subtle thinker & he was killed as much for his subtlety as for his ability to communicate directly to people. for all these people they alway made it clear that the answer was difficult complex but that it was in the people themselves
in latin america – all across latin america we are seeing leaders & people in a sometimes seamless level of oppossition to us imperialism & hitting it where it hurts – is that simply because they are facing less than the usual armed force by the united states because the arab people are facing the brunt of it – or is there another form of maturity possible.
& it is not simply the absence of absolutism – u s imperialism has done a very professional job with their evangilical churches in latin america tryiong to destroy or buy the soul of a people

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 22 2005 23:24 utc | 23

Standin’ here in Dick Cheney’s mind, just lookin’ out at reality. It looks hard, through his eyes. An it’s hard in here. Real hard. There are voices.
These goddamm sissy Americans wanna drive around in their super-size-me’s takin’ their whiny snot-nosed kids to soccer and movies and the mall wanna eat beef at every meal wanna drive to Disneyland every summer wanna refi and move up to somethin with two bathrooms this time where the hell they think it all comes from what’s this cryin’ outta their assholes tellin’ me about $2.50 a gallon those ungrateful peons in their cubicles and cars making endless demands on me for their lifestyles after all those years slaving away in this town and in Texas to get them the oil that makes their world possible they wanna gimme the hairy eyeball now do they wanna be for peace and love and you-mon rights and give away our food to all those fly-covered skinny little — whatta bunch of shitheads half of ’em don’t even vote when they have the chance they still wanna tell old Dick Cheney where he went wrong they wanna impeach him for playin’ hardball with the Russian-Iranians well Mister Dick is still on the job and they’re gonna remember me for a goddamned long time when I get through with those towelheads an their slanty-eyed friends if I’ve said it once I’ve said it thousand times if I can’t have that oil no one can by God I’ll make those Persian fields so goddamn radioactive they’ll be drillin’ in sideways from behind the pyramids forevermore those lousy yellow Chinese bastards think they can buy what’s mine there ain’t now way cuz it’s all in my hands at last it’s mine to Dick with it’s just me makin’ history after 9/11 I’m Mister History from here on out for as long as this world lasts they’ll be talkin’ how Mister Dick took no guff from the slopes and sand monkeys when the shootin’ started he just pulled out his Big Hammer an took America to the next level
. . .

Posted by: Antifa | Jul 22 2005 23:43 utc | 24

LOL. You can’t fool me Antifa. I know you’re not really in Dick Cheney’s brain — you’ve just got a tiny radio transmitter implanted in it.
Try to find out where he’s got all that stolen Halliburton loot stashed away.

Posted by: Billmon | Jul 22 2005 23:57 utc | 25

Antifa channels r’giap?
so debs, Geography is Destiny? but how does that explain the EU today?
This sort of an operation would require the dehumanisation of self along with that of the enemy because the consequence of nuking anywhere in the Middle East is pretty plain for most.
Have a read and a shudder — dehumanisation is already well along in some sectors of US society, cf the murderous anti-Arab bumperstickers and t shirts available online and in storefronts. I have not read Hatzfeld’s book and am not sure I can bear to, but:

By taking a backseat to the firsthand accounts, Hatzfeld allows the killers to explain just how and why average Hutus calmly followed orders and willingly trekked into the swamps in search of their Tutsi prey. They admit that they killed reluctantly at first, but soon it became routine work, no different than the hacking of weeds and plants on their plots of land. A sense of camaraderie and teamwork existed among those who hunted in the swamps, and everyone was allowed to kill at his own pace, so long as he killed.
[…]
Scouring the swamps and killing Tutsis was hard work and soon became rather tedious, but the prospect of looting the dead drove them on. The killers found themselves living in an anarchic utopia where they no longer tended to their fields or even operated within a recognizable market economy. Rather, the entire society sustained itself by simply stealing everything of value from those it had killed.
Amid the carnage of their own making, the Hutus maintained a festive atmosphere. “Anybody who once had eaten meat only at weddings, he found himself stuffed with it day after day,” explain one killer. “When we got back from the marshes … we snapped up roast chicken, haunches of cow, and drinks to remedy our fatigue.” The others shared similar memories: “We got up rich, we went to bed with full bellies, we lived a life of plenty. Pillaging is more worthwhile than harvesting, because it profits everyone equally.”

Pillaging is more worthwhile than harvesting — as Halliburton, Blackwater and the rest can testify. And mass murder is hard work and soon becomes rather tedious, as the Einsatzgruppen members told us only a few decades ago. Nuking Iran would require dehumanisation of self and the other — the horrible truth is that the dehumanisation is not that hard to achieve. It’s been done again and again. Hate-propaganda, plus opportunities galore to loot and rape, plus absence of consequences = instant Redi-Mix genocide.

Posted by: DeAnander | Jul 23 2005 0:05 utc | 26

steve duncan wrote:
“I’ve read children that torture animals invariably grow up to be mentally disturbed sociopaths. Didn’t Dubya have such a history? He probably ranks most foreigners about the level of dogs & cats and firecracker-in-the-butt frogs. Nuking Tehren isn’t much of a stretch.”
I’m not sure where you read that they invariably grow up that way, but it has been implicated in studies to be highly corrolary. Interestingly, Texas governors who break records for state-sanctioned executions while publicly mocking the accused doinvariably turn out to be sociopaths.
I wouldn’t act surprised that he has no regard for the lives of foreigners… he has demonstrated that he doesn’t hold the lives of US citizens in very high esteem, either.

Posted by: Monolycus | Jul 23 2005 0:19 utc | 27

dea
can you imagine what it must belike to be a neurone in cheneys head that is if there are any neurones left. it would be a most troublesome space & i’ve been to many bad places but i imagine dick cheney’ cerebral cortex not even dante in delirium could imagine
i’d do a riff about what’s going on in bush’s skull but there its quite, quite empty
bolton – that would be this schoolboy nietzschean mixed up with marcus welby mixed up wiith sgt schultz run through leo strauss – i’d be far too fucking scared to even go near that skull
negroponte – i imagine cadaver after cadaver after cadaver – & some drinks down georgetown way
rove – ayn rand fucking with gary cooper fucking with ayn rand fucking with gary cooper
rumsfield – well its all in his prick, that prick

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 23 2005 0:30 utc | 28

I wouldn’t act surprised that he has no regard for the lives of foreigners… he has demonstrated that he doesn’t hold the lives of US citizens in very high esteem, either.
Now nobody (well, few people) despise Shrub as much as I do, but don’t go blaming this one on him. He’s just following orders like everyone else. No, I think President Cheney dreamed it up all by himself — and he didn’t torture animals as a child, he was tortured by animals as a child. And boy is he getting his revenge now.

Posted by: Bush | Jul 23 2005 0:32 utc | 29

DeAnander

so debs, Geography is Destiny? but how does that explain the EU today?t

To that I cop out and reply that Diplomacy is set in the geography and conditions of 1914 which aren’t that dissimilar to today’s geography (excluding austria-hungarian and ottoman empires) whereas the EU developed from the post ww2 map of Europe where the geography was different and the circumstances vastly different ie mid to late 20th century was the closest yet to the rule of the ordinary man as opposed to kings/presidents. Perhaps the recent turbulence in the EU can be attributed to geographic re-alignment mixed with shifts in power concentration. But alla this is drawing far too much from a relatively simple board game which tends to steer people to follow existing historical/geographic imperative.
As far as dehumanisation goes I have no doubt that the people in the US have had Arabs sufficiently dehumanised to remove that obstacle to nuking the ME, but the real question is have they dehumanised themselves to the point where the otherwise ordered and conventional people that inhabit the military are capable of no longer caring about the effects of their actions on themselves. Once people have been trained to think consequentially is it possible to ‘untrain’ that behaviour?
I don’t know if you remember the news stories that were around in the ’70s about full dress rehersal of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy that was all the rage in the cold war. Although the grunts could be relied upon to ‘press the button’ if they knew they were playing a war game, if they thought the situation was genuine compliance fell off considerably. Even in situations where one grunt was meant to pull out his piece and force the other to comply, the human relationship which had developed between people meant that these routines weren’t adhered to.
Of course a heap of work will have been done to reduce the human element since then. I suspect though that no-one could countenance a completely automatic nuke system, so human ‘safeguards’ will still be in the procedural chains. Now it is also certain that a mob of psychological work will have been put into determining what type of individual is most likely to follow orders without question but also not be so rabid that they do an independent nuke. My scepticism about reliance on using generalised data to predict specific behaviour tells me to paraphrase the raygun “that although the evidence tells me that this thing will happen my heart tells me it won’t.”
These threats against Iran just don’t have the feel of the big stick approach to me. I mean alla these types are paid up NRA flunkies so they should know that threatening someone with a gun simply encourages that person to go out and buy a bigger gun.
But what do I know Cheney has been right about everything else so far. lol

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 23 2005 0:48 utc | 30

The 12th Iman or, a neocon version of a Harlequin Romance.
They just can’t get enough
Two house members, Hoekstra and Weldon, made the pilgrimage to Paris for secret talks with the Ghorbanifar gang.
The Paris meeting appears to be the latest in a string of incidents in which players outside the intelligence community try to affect American foreign policy by highlighting threats that the CIA and other agencies find dubious.
In some ways, it echoes the claims by Iraqi exiles that Saddam Hussein was hiding weapons of mass destruction, claims proven to be false after the U.S.-led invasion.
Weldon, R-Pa., claims in a new book that the Iranian exile, whom he calls “Ali,” told him of dramatic Iranian-sponsored terrorist plots against the United States.
[Weldon’s book, “Countdown to Terror,” claims that Iran is planning a calamitous terrorist strike against the United States known as “the 12th Imam operation”; that it’s close to having a nuclear weapon; and that al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden was or is hiding in Iran.]

I thought that “Osama is in Iran” line was just a joke…but apparently not.
Weldon thinks that Goss is a great new head of the CIA, btw. Maybe Weldon’s book is where he got the claim that they know where Osama is.
(Laura Rozen has a hoot of a “review” here.
From the Rozen link below:
[Weldon’s] press aides say that former CIA Director James Woolsey — a neoconservative stalwart who endorsed the theory that Iraqi agents were probably behind the September 11 attacks — has read Weldon’s new book manuscript and was most impressed by it.
I bet he was.
Larry Johnson weighs in on Weldon’s intelligence…information.
Also from the Rozen link below, “Ali” claims he was a cut out for Ghorbanifar.
But the CIA says that it has wasted hundreds of hours checking the claims of Ali – whose real name is Fereidoun Mahdavi – and that they are a mix of fabrications and embellishments of press reports, according to a letter from the CIA to Weldon.
…Mahdavi is a longtime associate of Iranian arms merchant Manucher Ghorbanifar, the officials say. Ghorbanifar, a key figure in the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal, has had two CIA “burn notices” issued on him, meaning agency officers are not to deal with him.

The former CIA Paris station chief “outed” the name of “Ali” and Weldon wants him investigated, ala the Valerie Plame incident, for outing an agent!?!?
But Rozen claims she and Jeet Heer outed him here.
And Dana Priest notes:
Weldon’s book is filled with “Dear Curt” memos from Mahdavi. One of his most urgent allegations is that terrorists were plotting to fly a hijacked Canadian airliner into the Seabrook Nuclear Reactor, which is four miles outside Boston. Weldon credits Mahdavi with thwarting the attack and points to the August 2003 arrest in Toronto of 19 men, most of whom were Pakistani and who were initially thought to make up a sleeper cell.
Within a month, however, the Toronto arrests were downgraded to a case of routine immigration fraud. Seven of the men remain in Canada and have applied for refugee status, arguing that the terrorist label they now have makes it impossible for them to return safely to Pakistan.

It’s behind the subscription wall…so if anyone has one…The Financial Times calls Weldon’s book and others a new attempt to demonize Iran.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 0:57 utc | 31

And speaking of Ghorbanifar, here’s and excellent diary on Ghorbanifar, Ledeen, Italy, Niger, and that first pack of lies. Here’s one bit I found really interesting:
Rocco Martino, Michael Ledeen, Francesco Pazienza, Silvio Berlusconi and Nicolo Pollari are all members of P-2. P-2 is found out to have been running a parallel intelligence network that recruited SISMI agents. Pollari authorized the abduction of Abu Omar. The abduction was allegedly coordinated by Robert Lady. An unknown SISMI agent contacts Martino and puts him in touch with a “lady” who can get him documents about Niger. The Niger Embassy is broken into. The unknown SISMI agent gives the “lady” real Niger documents along with the forgeries. This “lady” gives them to Martino.
And now the road takes us to the office of Panorama.
Panorama is owned by Silvio Berlusconi.
Elisabetta Burba, a journalist for Panorama, receives a telephone call from Rocco Martoni telling her about the Niger documents, offering to sell them to here for ten thousand dollars.  She meets with him and he gives her photocopies.  She asks how they could be authenticated and he shows her a photocopy of the codebook from the Niger Embassy.
Italian authorities believe the codebook was obtained in the breakin of the Niger Embassy in 2001.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 1:22 utc | 32

Just to add to the general mood of fun and frivolity, there has been a very large attack on an Egyptian resort; numerous deaths by the sounds of things.

Posted by: Ferdzy | Jul 23 2005 1:40 utc | 33

Alright alright despite my previously stated reservations I’ll be scared by this nuke Iran business. I’ve followed a couple of links out of here to other blogs and one contains the following gem of an exchange:

Just a thought… Would it be that bad for the Iranians to at least WORRY that we might seriously be committed to nuking them if they sponsored a terrorist attack?
Posted by: Will Wilkinson | July 22, 2005 04:17 PM
Will:
Absolutely not. In fact, I think there ought to be no confusion about our having a very short fuse when it comes to such matters.

Now who can see the flaw in this thinking? “That a terrorist attack on innocents in our country is so bad that it is OK for us to nuke innocents from their country.” And Iran’s next move would be? So it seems there are people in the US even those who hang on the left side of things who can suspend disbelief in massacres of ordinary people for long enough to ‘get our own back’.
The next glaring flaw in this strategy is the one that Leopold 2 seeks to exploit. That is that none of us, not even the terrorists can be really sure who was behind a terrorist action. The recent debate in these pages about who was responsible for the world trade centre murders is proof of that. Surely even the average Joe Blow in the US is getting pretty jaded by spin now. Would it really be possibe to convince them that there was sufficient evidence to warrant nuking. The spanish conservatives’ failed attempt to blame ETA for the Madrid murders tells us that the sheeple can’t always be relied upon to swallow sweet bullshit when grieving and scared.
The truly scary thing of the publicity for this ‘strategy’ is that it hands a really powerful weapon to anyone that finds Iran a fly in their ointment. Apart from the obvious candidates like Israel, who have the motive, the means and the opportunity to stage a terrorist attack in the US and sheet the blame onto Iran, just about anyone with a grudge against Iran could consider this an opportunity too good to miss.
Imagine you are a former middle management member of Saddam’s old military. You’re probably going to be Sunni as well as unemployed and trying to come to terms with the fact that the undermensch are going to rule your country assisted by Iran, for the forseeable future. On the other hand a well planned and executed attack on the US would pretty much guarantee that Iran and shia in general are going to become the next members of the Axis of Evil for the US to ‘take out’. This also means that the US will want to get onside with the sunnis in Iraq and make the whole strategy as failsafe as possible. So the ex-Ba’athist sunni decides to stage a terror attack on the US. Even if the plan blows up in his face things couldn’t get much worse than they already are, but if it succeeds the Sunnis will end up back in control of Iraq with a weakened Iran as a neighbour. A definite can’t lose scenario. Yet this is meant to make the US safer against terrorist attack?
Is it just I’m a particularly twisted thinker or are the repugs really that stoopid?

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 23 2005 2:19 utc | 34

I assume people here are well enough read to know that Mike Ledeen, the out and out fascist, is Rove’s “adviser” on Iran.
While googling about, I came upon something quite funny. blogs are so “in” now, that to make it look like the Iranians desperately want America to intervene one of these jokers started a “blog”. Surprise, interview w/Ledeen shows up Amateurish throw together stuff, like a quickie from some PR agency. Since this Admin. is so big on projection, they linked to another piece of crap w/”article” Tehran’s Plan of Attack on US. Batman comics were more credible.

Posted by: jj | Jul 23 2005 2:51 utc | 35

Does anyone know of a single Democrat, holding elective position in Washington, who has firmly denounced, unequivocally and in principle, the use of atomic weapons against Iran? I’m hardly an expert on the subject, and if such a person exists, I’d be grateful to know who he or she might be. And if no such person exists, I’d like to know why. And until I learned that such a person exists, I’d take it as the height of folly to suppose that the idea of using atomic weapons against Iran–or the appeal of such an idea–is restricted to neo-cons, Republicans, or the military offspring of General Curtis Le May ( the usual suspects, in a word). Oh, and one other thing, while I’m at it: if Fitzgerald really does the business of bringing AIPAC’s activities to the attention of all and sundry, then I suspect that many an elected Democrat will be most unhappy with the man. Biden, Pelosi, Lieberman–I think their praise for Fitzgerald is (and will continue to be) very faint indeed. They may, at some point, actually find occasions to speak of him in slighting and dismissive terms–as a man of narrow vision, if not as a Republcan.

Posted by: alabama | Jul 23 2005 3:00 utc | 36

Isn’t this leak one more indication of a raging covert war in Washington, with who knows how many factions. In any case, there’s a heavyweight group from State, Justice, CIA, military,etc. determined that Cheney will never lead them and u.s.down his particular primrose path again.
In addition to the serious consideration of a nuclear option,isn’t that one phrase chilling: “in response to another 9/11 type attack”? And curious.
1/ if there is another “9/11 type attack”, what further proof would we need that the present U.S. strategy for a WOT is grievously misguided? Who would believe that more of the same is in any way a useful response?
2/ if Cheney is planning for the possibility of such an attack, does he acknowledge failure? Or does he have a hint about the future that the rest of us don’t?
3/ What would constitute “another 9/11 type attack”? LIves? $property damage? Spectacularly telegenic destruction? Results in U.S. Treasury bailout for a U.S. industry in severe financial straits?
SteinL’s reminder about standard military practice is a reasonable caution. Still, the warning from the military could be basically solid. If they are updating the book on Iran with a nuclear option, while hearing plenty of talk coming from the Cheney direction about invading Iran, what should they think? Hell, we are all hearing that talk from the predictable hawks.
Pentagon planners remember what happened BEFORE 9/11, when the orders came down to revise the book on invading Iraq. Most Pentagon books of war plans just sit on the shelf and get revised now and then. But in 2001 the smoke was fire. No way to tell this time whether it’s the posture of genocidal nuclear maniac (Deterence 101) or the real thing. This time the military pushing back harder. If nuking Iran starts looking real, some officers will probably fall on their swords (careers) and speak out; whether that’s enough to stop a determined maniac is unclear.
Maybe the reference to 9/11 here is more of a code = Remember last time: Cheney has another plan now, and he’s looking for another excuse.
Try a very different reading of this warning. It indicate simply that much of the military at the Pentagon see Cheney as The problem, and the solution is to defang his operation ASAP. They are joining the push of leaks in Washington, coming from many directions now. Specifics are important only to convey the message that Cheney is out of control.
Rumsfeld occupies a curious position in all this. His recent public statements sound closer to those of military voices and further from Cheney’s. (remember? Cheney: “last throes”; Rumsfeld “12 yrs”. In the pre-W days, rumors made them competitive, not always friendly colleagues. He doesn’t seem to be keeping a very tight lid on military dissent these days.
If you look at how Constituional succession lines up, it might be safer to leave Bush in place and appoint a new VP, if the BigPush were so successful – with the help of a few indictments – as to force a resignation (a longshot). Perhaps they would settle for a neogitated power-sharing arrangment with the Cheney & Co, or Cheney minus Co. Well, no. No one would be fool enough to attempt a negotiated peace with a reality-challenged Emperor.
Move him as far away from those buttons as possible.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 23 2005 3:15 utc | 37

It’s starting to look like we may get an answer to the question “Will the survivors envy the dead?”

Posted by: R.L. | Jul 23 2005 3:28 utc | 38

Try a very different reading of this warning. It indicate simply that much of the military at the Pentagon see Cheney as The problem, and the solution is to defang his operation ASAP. They are joining the push of leaks in Washington, coming from many directions now. Specifics are important only to convey the message that Cheney is out of control.
Yes, but will he do anything to ward off impeachment? Don’t forget defanging is easier than it sounds, since he could turn to Mossad to pull a domestic operation. One of the reasons the few honorable old guard left @Langley want him gone is that he & the Neos authorized the Mossad to operate in America. (google Richard Sale Mossad). If they don’t move quickly, Cheney might force military’s hand.
Helpful Spook, what have ye to say??
Did everyone notice, that Admin. blocked release of new AbuG photos today?

Posted by: jj | Jul 23 2005 3:35 utc | 39

Reading this bit of Billmon’s post-

Given the risks… many on the right are expressing a not-so-secret hope that the Israelis will take care of the problem …like they took care of Saddam’s nuclear reactor … may be beyond even the Israeli Air Force’s capabilities ….

According to military experts in Israel and elsewhere, the Israel Air Force does not have the strength that is needed to destroy the sites in Iran in a preemptive strike that will make it impossible for Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons . . .

– makes me wonder: why should we think the Israelis would act alone? In the “fog” of an attack, who would notice the involvement of US stealth fighters and bombers. Who, for that matter would be able to tell that damage was inflicted not by an Israeli strike force, but an American cruise missile? A bona fide Israeli strike could, perhaps, hide an American participation if done right, I think. Plausible deniability.
I can see where some in this administration must envision this scenario as a win/win. Iran’s nuclear ambitions get taken out while our efforts in Iraq suffer no negative backlash. Not that I think we wouldn’t suffer severe destabalization in Iraq.

Posted by: Vello | Jul 23 2005 4:31 utc | 40

jj –
will he do anything to ward off impeachment? Don’t forget defanging is easier than it sounds,
Absolutely. Whatever the dangers the Cheney Admin has already delivered, the (barely) covert domestic power struggle raises the likelihood that he’d raise the ante, and sooner rather than later.
Would a more open rebellion be more effective? Hard to guess whether people would accept it; I’m beginning to believe that the disbelief of very bad news is an instinct. How else to explain so many American heads in the sand?
Can we hope that the “rebels,” anticipating the same danger, have their eyes wide open, and have prepared major interventions, if Cheney goes for broke? They are all gamesman. Mossad has to work with whichever side ends up in power; they will be cautious.
(That was me a couple posts up.)

Posted by: small coke | Jul 23 2005 4:46 utc | 41

Good points, small coke. I keep waiting to see Eminent Republicans forming a committee to help out – Republicans for Impeachment/Good Government..whatever – Kevin Phillips, John Dean, guys everyone has to listen to should step forward to move the ball along quickly & provide cover. A huge group of them stepping forward together, barnstorming the country, simply ripping these guys to shreds would help embolden the Repugs in Congress & the MSM. Where the hell are they? These guys are mostly retired & enough of them couldn’t be picked off.
Given what these assholes have done, I don’t see why this should fall to “Dems”, or Congress. They’ve Bankrupted the Nation & on-the-record did Zero when warned of impending attacks. What else do you need to know? There should be a bi-partisan movement demanding that they Get Out Now. We’ll deal w/Treason Trials later.
Someone posted that since the CIA is carrying the ball on this – as they probably did w/Nixon – something which I find Extremely Disturbing, if things get too bad, much dirty laundry will start dripping out. (I keep waiting for tales of their homosexual escapades to splash across the pages, but I realize we’re not there yet.)
I’m not sure I agree w/your Mossad bit. I expect that the CIA will want the next Admin. to remove their authorization altogether. Also, Israel – or significant figures therein – really want the Iran attack, so I’m concerned.

Posted by: jj | Jul 23 2005 5:11 utc | 42

Debs, I spent several years in the Pacific region around SE Asia, and several months in-country in the regions now considered as “Muslim terrorist”.
Every morning young men would do their ablutions and prayers, then a sarong-clad woman would walk down the black sand beach with a pile of sweet saffron rice cakes filled with shredded morsels and wrapped in banana leaves, selling for 1000Rp, or about US10c. These people lived simply and quietly, farming or working as maids and guides, homestay owners or artisans. Their craft work was impeccable and highly sought after all around the world. At night, when the tourists had gone, we would all gather in the candle-lit cafe, open on to the softly lulling beach, and watch Chinese kung-fu movies dubbed in Bahasa, which is an … experience. They live a sweet but hand-to-mouth life, you could not imagine in urban America.
Then a whirlwind of beemos, taxis, ticket lines, armed guards, jet airplanes, screaming noise, cars upons cars upon cars, pavement *everywhere*, every window, every billboard some branding sign, talking heads on hundreds of media channels soothing, ‘Everything is OK, buy!, buy!’, or pointlessly numbing moronic TV pretend-games.
“Oh, d’jou see CSI last night? No, I was watching American Idol!” Everything costs bags of money, in a steady stream out of your pocket. Just try to find a breakfast for 10c, or room for $5, yet we’re supposed to be the richest nation on earth.
These island people know this. They talk to the tourists. They watch the tourists unwind. They know we live in a meat grinder, a slaughterhouse, a cradle-to-crypt wax museum of Holy Terror. Just walk downtown on any night after the last bus has left, and watch the homeless crawling along the sidewalk, or dipping into dumpsters, or sleeping in rubbish in alleys. Thousands and thousands. We’re supposed to be the richest nation on earth.
The very *last* thing they want is to be like US. They will fight *and die* to the last person, to keep our imperialist, colonialist, money-grasping blood-red claw of Christ out of their existence.
Until you’ve lived 3rd world, really lived there, and then come back to this westernized, s–t is too nice a word, you have no idea how totally brainwashed and programmed Americans have become.
I read a letter from a Nam vet today saying that we *all* must wear the uniform(!) to preserve our freedoms(sic) in Iraq, and that liberal cowards are diluting the moral blood of the savior or some such unbelievable s–t, if only that wasn’t what’s being taught across this country.
Pure racism. Right at the root of the epistle.
A white-armored Christ standing on the neck of the brown people, blood flowing from his sword. America as Imperial Spain in the New World, the Neo-Papacy, burning non-believers at the stake.
How did we retrograde 400 years in only five!?

Posted by: Darryl Peek | Jul 23 2005 5:44 utc | 43

drip drip
Meanwhile, a parallel investigation is under way into who forged the Niger documents. They are known to have been passed to an Italian journalist by a former Italian defence intelligence officer, Rocco Martino, in October 2002, but their origins have remained a mystery. Mr Martino has insisted to the Italian press that he was “a tool used by someone for games much bigger than me”, but has not specified who that might be.
A source familiar with the inquiry said investigators were examining whether former US intelligence agents may have been involved in possible collaboration with Iraqi exiles determined to prove that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear programme.

Posted by: annie | Jul 23 2005 7:16 utc | 44

I am taking less and less comfort from the conjecture that this is a variant of Nixon’s “madman theory” the more I think about it. The point about threats is this: if you expect to be taken seriously, you must be prepared to back them up. As soon as your bluff is called, if you aren’t prepared to make good on your threats, you are in no position to bargain afterward.
During the Vietnam era of Nixon’s administration, a bit of sabre rattling by the US might still have given its opponents pause. Granted, we failed to decisively win in Korea and all the napalm in the world wasn’t causing the followers of Ho Chi Minh to hand us what we wanted… but the memories of fresh US troops beating battle-weary opposition (that had already been slugging it out in Europe for years before we showed up to crash the party) on the beaches of Normandy weren’t so distant a memory that US military might could be taken so lightly. In retrospect, of course it wasn’t a fair fight… but at the time it really bolstered the illusion of US military superiority and we’ve been getting a lot of mileage out of those laurels ever since.
A gigantic portion of the quagmire that is Iraq (and yes, Afghanistan. Does anyone else recall that the Soviet Union in its superpower days got their asses handed to them by those “primitives”?) has come from the US letting its mouth write cheques that its ass can’t cash, as they say. And the world is watching. The longer we are there, the less effective our trash talk becomes.
And now, rather than extricate ourselves from the corner we’ve already painted ourselves into, we think we still carry enough of that illusion of invincibility to frighten our foes into submission…? While our troop strength is depleted already in two wars of absolute myopic hubris, we’re trying to pick a third fight? When recruiters can not fill-in-the-blanks fast enough to take care of our current needs, and all it would take is three or more independent, minor dictators to put aside their differences and join the fray to finish us off, we think we have enough bully power to make these kinds of threats?
This is a bluff we can’t win. We do not have the conventional troops to topple Iran. If we ever did, they’ve been squandered over the past few years in the neighbouring deserts. So when somebody calls that bluff… well… there’s another corner we’re painted into. We would have to use the nukes.
The kicker is that the way this threat is phrased, Iran could be cowed by it (unlikely as hell given the above, but let’s pretend)… and some group entirely independent of all of this could decide it’s time for us to put up or shut up. It’s an open invitation for a small dictatorship or even a lone-wolf terrorist organisation to pull off a stunt on US soil, knowing fully well that Iran will take the heat for it. And then all they would have to do is watch and wait while we deplete ourselves further.
That’s not madman theory. These are madmen… and they are doing everything they can do to provide a lose/lose scenario from which the USA will not be able to extricate itself.

Posted by: Monolycus | Jul 23 2005 8:53 utc | 45

We can’t ‘win’ in Iraq. And I recall posting previously why the Iranians won … starting with the farce of the IGC and ‘our man’ Chalabi … the Sunnis have always been the only possible US allies in Iraq re strongmanning(?) the country … and we’ve been deftly maneuvred into making them our heartily committed generational enemies … way to go Iran …
Following is arepost from the previous thred, just as relevant …
We effectively lost the counter-insurgency war within the first three months following the 2003 invasion … a combination of Abu Ghraib and Fallujah I & II were the final nails in the coffin of a now inevitable US strategic defeat … Jeez, we’re even having trouble ‘winning’ in Afghanistan, for Chrissakes!
I’ve posted the relevant War College studies and the military summaries of Iran previously … so, short version … we go into Iran and our already soon to collapse US Army and Marines (12-24 months) can be kissed goodbye … they’ll be irrevocably crippled and won’t be able to recover for more than a decade … cruise missiles and aircraft can cause devastating destruction, yippeeh !(sarcasm), yet they can’t ‘win’ alone against a determined and nationalistic foe, and Iran is certainly that, and they can’t sieze or hold ‘ground’ …
We go to war with Iran and we will have lit a geopolitical powderkeg, a 21st century version of the 1914 ‘Guns of August’ … economically, politically, and re legitimacy in world affairs … kiss the shreds that are left goodbye … and oh yeah, the Iranians have been FORMALLY specializing in preparing for a REAL insurgency war if invaded by the ‘Great Satan’ for more than a decade … a guerilla war in Iran would make the current Iraq look like Grenada by comparison … and oh, yeah, if terrorism re the nebulous ‘ideology’ of Al-Qaeda and offshoots is a problem now, watch it turn into a worldwide bonfire among the 1 billion+ Muslims, especially the Shia, of the world when we unilaterally invade the THIRD Islamic country in a row !!!
We are entering a very dark stage in world affairs and the current Bush cabal are sowing the seeds of serious geopolitical conflict and turmoil … the NPT treaty has been effectively sundered re recent policies changes re India and Pakistan … the lessons to be learnt by the non G8 nations of the world are that terrorism, guerilla warfare and most especially possession of WMDs, including Nukes, is your only defense/deterrent against the potential rampages of an out of control, unilateral, western Democratic cabal led by the militarily overpowering US … sanctions in the short term, but only posessing WMDs can deter the ‘Empire’ for sure … Bush via Rummies China threat brief has now effectively declared China our future Cold War enemy, the modern USSR’, a self-fulfilling process has commenced … yet the economic power of China paired with the natural resources and technology of Russia is a whole different ball game indeed … 🙁
The threat of World War and Nuclear conflict during the Cold War was bad enough, but now we’ve created a playing field for 21st century warfare where there are now NO RULES, none whatsoever !
The Laws of War and the Geneva Conventions have been demonstrably rendered ‘quaint’, future conflicts will be progressively more vicious and inhumane, the precedents and ‘interpretations’ have been set …
Unless some modern form of enlightenment occurs soon, a dismally faint hope, a 21st century ‘Dark Ages’ of diverse, virtually continuous military conflict may be upon us relatively soon, bloc against bloc, threatening to erupt into regional or even global conflict …
The quote from the Air Force planners in an earlier post is not a joke and not to be taken lightly … many military and intelligence planner/analyst vets, pragmatic and realistic people of all beliefs and backgrounds, have been getting progressively more ‘concerned’, and that’s stating the case ‘lightly’, for some time since the Afghanistan ‘adventure’ …
Sorry to be so, dark …

Posted by: Outraged | Jul 23 2005 10:36 utc | 46

@Debs is Dead 05:43 PM
The necessary psychological training, indoctrination and recurring rigid drills will definitely ensure that the overwhelming majority of nukes will be fired if a verified order is given … and sidearms will end any isolated potential dispute re morality/humanity… furthermore the type of ‘tactical’ nukes that would be considered suitable for such strikes are regarded by the operators/planners/commanders as little more than ‘heavy’ artillery … they just require special authorization to launch … we’re not talking silos with ICBMs here … regionally positioned tac nukes from nuclear subs, surface ships, strike aircraft (AF & Navy)and cruise/tomahawk misslles would be more than sufficient for thier insane aims …

Posted by: Outraged | Jul 23 2005 10:47 utc | 47

Nice post, small coke. scary as hell, but nice.
From Outraged:
they just require special authorization to launch … we’re not talking silos with ICBMs here … regionally positioned tac nukes from nuclear subs, surface ships, strike aircraft (AF & Navy)and cruise/tomahawk misslles would be more than sufficient for thier insane aims …
As I said in another thread, it’s not the tenuous occupations on both sides of Iran that are the issue. Rather, it’s the Navy, Air Force, etc. in the Persian Gulf.
A previous rumor, again, was that Israel would provide the cover for a larger U.S. strike from the Gulf. Not with the intention to invade, but to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities and other war-making objects.
And as everyone knows, smart bombs aren’t really. As if, as you say, Outraged, a THIRD invasion or strike would be seen as “limited.” –as if a nuclear option does not send the clear message that “the other” has been dehumanized by the crazies with their fingers too close to the triggers.
If this goes forward, yes, I think all hell is about to break loose.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 15:39 utc | 48