Maybe we’ve reached the end of our rope, too — that is to say, maybe we’ve risen to a level of intelligence just high enough to create problems we’re not bright enough to solve. A kind of evolutionary Peter Principle in action.
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July 23, 2005
WB: Australopithicus robustus
Comments
I assume you’re aware that this is basically the question Thomas Homer Dixon explored in The Ingenuity Gap ? Posted by: Lexington | Jul 23 2005 6:19 utc | 1 There’s no doubt we have a lot of stupid people walking about, but I think Diamond’s right — the answer is much more complex than that. Posted by: Vin Carreo | Jul 23 2005 7:01 utc | 3 Actually, people would be a lot better off if they were> as dumb as turnips, considering turnips can’t be thought of as contributing to their own extinction, let alone the of the extinction of a whole host of other life forms, if not eventually the planet itself. Posted by: anna missed | Jul 23 2005 7:22 utc | 4 Circumstantial necessity may prove to be the most effective motivator of major change. Certainly the possibility of evolutionary dead-ends exists. Having myself and my loved ones turn out to be part of a dead-end would not be fun from the personal perspective. Viewed more objectively, what Life seems to care about is the survival of species (and the planet) as a whole, more than the survival of individual specimens within a species. Potentially, massive crisis can lead to rapid evolution in small segments of the human species, revealing ways out of our dilemmas we can’t even see yet. Posted by: stvwlf | Jul 23 2005 7:40 utc | 5 The human species can serve as a great raw material and inspiration, although it does depend on what you are trying to build. Posted by: Jassalasca Jape | Jul 23 2005 7:44 utc | 6 Sorry Billmon it’s just too much of a cop out to say we got here because we’re stupid. Although the thought has a comforting ring to it lets face it as anna missed pointed out, turnips don’t seem to be in any evolutionary danger. Perhaps we got here because we’re just too smart for our own good. The reason that no-one has turned up on our planet from another galaxy, or in our time from another eon is that once a species thinks it’s bright enough to control it’s environment, it actually creates it’s own destruction. Not an evolutionary Peter Principle more like an evolutionary Murphy’s Law. Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 23 2005 8:48 utc | 7 My basic theory is that man is an intermediary evolutionary stage and is not fully bipedal yet. He is extremely vulnerable, clumsy, and ill adapted. The spine and body have to change a bit more. Posted by: jm | Jul 23 2005 9:06 utc | 8 Quantum theory is indicating that we might be able to solve this lack of objectivity problem by expanding the scope of perception, both by natural evolution and practice. By learning to live in the an expanded reality of added dimensions. So we could step into another one and look at the problem from that vantage point. Right? Posted by: jm | Jul 23 2005 9:14 utc | 9 As someone with an abiding love for two wonderful people afflicted with spectral disorders, I can say, definitively I think, that as far as desirable human traits, “gentle and kind” has it all over “intelligent” and that the problem with the world is not so much an intelligence deficit as a kindness deficit. Posted by: bcf | Jul 23 2005 11:18 utc | 10 Well, ya know, Bilmon, in the human genome dna mapping project a few years back many scientists were confident that the number of DNA base sequences for human beings would be in the seventy thousands, nearly double the amount a chimpanzee has at its disposal. And wouldn’t you know it, when the final calculations came in, the Chimpanzee had thirty three thousand base sequences, and the human being? JUST Thirty five thousand! We are more or less, as a species, a slight variation on chimps. Have you ever seen Jane Goodall’s furry little friends engage in a turf war? Or have you seen the Alpha Male strut about giving the other males a quick one up the rump to let them know who’s boss? Yahhhhhhs! good entertainment. Posted by: behan | Jul 23 2005 11:24 utc | 11 I’m with bcf … the fundamental failing of the western capitalist societies seems to be an ever greater deficit in such simple survival traits as compassion, empathy and simple humanity … developing some form of congenital detachment to the people, communities, the world around us … the elites seem to be trying to run some sort of eugenics like indoctrination program to breed the traits out … profit, shiny baubeled posessions and status in a ‘dog eat dog’ system are all that is to be valued, and above all else … not exactly encouraging traits for technologically advanced militaristic societies … or am I just exhibiting/projecting mild paranoia ? Posted by: Outraged | Jul 23 2005 11:45 utc | 12 Holding on to outworn ideas? Believing some higher being will solve the problem? Greed and selfishness? Posted by: ken melvin | Jul 23 2005 12:16 utc | 13 Over the years I have watched the pitiful series of self congratulatory canards that have passed for argument as to how Man is, in some exceptional way, different from, better than, removed from the animal kingdom. My hypothesis is that there’s a subset of neolithic genes that will inevitably select itself out as society progresses. Something I bookmarked over a year ago on a similar topic. Posted by: MarkBob | Jul 23 2005 13:06 utc | 17 Funny, I was just thinking about this last night. My conclusion is that humans react to feed-back. Do something harmful; get harmed; learn not to do that again. Like the famous example of little kids touching a hot stove. The Neanderthals had larger brains than did Homo Sapiens. The reason we won and the bigger, stronger, smarter Neanderthals lost was that we learned to cooperate within our species. We had a different sort of brain, probably less attuned to mathematics, but more inclined towards social activities — better communication abilities, more gossippy, recognized the value of collective action. We picked off the Neanderthals one by one. We are dumb, but social. Matt Ridley’s “The Origins of Virtue” summarizes this argument about the evolution of cooperation. (Of course, Ridly argues that true cooperation can only come when the state doe not interfere, so he is no socialist.) Posted by: ghazzali | Jul 23 2005 13:21 utc | 19 “It’s a wonder that you still know how to breathe”. B Dylan, “The Idiot Wind” I read some of the comments with amusement and at the same time I have to agree. Modern medicine was founded on the quest for knowledge but also kindness in trying to make someones life better. How many people would not have survived without the polio vaccine or anti-biotics. But now modern medicine is corporate and kindness is not a factor, its all money. Posted by: jdp | Jul 23 2005 14:14 utc | 21 Used many times, but still appropriate: Posted by: Don F | Jul 23 2005 14:31 utc | 22 i have to agree with the monty python guys, in their movie about the meaning of life –
Posted by: mistah charley, ph.d. | Jul 23 2005 14:33 utc | 23 Maybe it has nothing to do with intelligence, per se, but with the idea that our brains are built upon previous brains…we still have our “reptile” brain that functions at the stem. While higher brain functions developed later, they didn’t replace all lower brain functions (lower not being intelligence, but less abstract, more primal emotions.) Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 15:12 utc | 24 fauxreal- Posted by: dave | Jul 23 2005 15:48 utc | 25 Maybe populations have grown so large that the cooperative ways that served before are easily subverted by the xenophobic lizard brain suspicions. Posted by: annie | Jul 23 2005 16:22 utc | 26
golden rule Posted by: mistah charley | Jul 23 2005 16:49 utc | 27 Lexington comments Posted by: Fannie Farmer (Mrs.) | Jul 23 2005 17:03 utc | 28 Dumbness has nothing to do with it. Bush didn’t win on the retard vote no matter how many retards insist against the facts that this is the case. Posted by: razor | Jul 23 2005 17:09 utc | 29 razor, google IQ by state. Then you tell me a bunch of red state dumbasses didn’t elect Bushie. He won the moron vote. Posted by: jdp | Jul 23 2005 17:17 utc | 30 But there’s a perfectly good answer to what he was thinking. Probably something like, “The fact that it will take generations to replant these trees is unfortunate, but the mistakes that led to this circumstance were made in the past, and do not constitute a compelling reason to deny myself whatever benefit the tree will give me now.” Posted by: Martin | Jul 23 2005 18:49 utc | 31 Posted by: behan: Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 19:00 utc | 32 …and to tie the above rant to cutting down the last tree… Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 19:04 utc | 33 The Easter Island parable has a certain appeal and maybe it contains a kind of higher truth but I don’t buy the image of an Easter Islander standing in front of the last living tree with an axe in hand. Posted by: Emma Zahn | Jul 23 2005 19:41 utc | 34 odd that this discussion should pop up just now. yesterday I was at the water cooler (at the office) getting my convenient, energy-intensive hit of instant hot water for my mug of tea (and reflecting as I often do on the irony of making my organic green tea with on-demand electrically-heated water); and a longtime colleague (astronomer, physicist) was nuking his lunch in the microwave. we exchanged the usual idle chitchat and I mentioned something about China and the booming “car culture” taking root over there, the promotion of US-style carburbs and the rocketing car sales, traffic jams, etc. Jassalasca, Markbob, Posted by: jm | Jul 23 2005 20:45 utc | 36 faux real Posted by: razor | Jul 23 2005 21:18 utc | 37 DeA, interesting comment, though I don’t agree w/the “not smart enough” part. If anything the intellect is over-valued relative to our capacity to feel. It’s isolating that which is so dangerous. It’s Patriarchy gone mad. In the West it manifests itself as over-valuation of the intellect, in the Arab world where it’s more obvious, it’s that women are soo despised that they can only have children to gain status, so they’re overloading the planet. Both symptoms of the same problem. Posted by: jj | Jul 23 2005 22:01 utc | 38 Razor wrote: Posted by: jj | Jul 23 2005 22:04 utc | 39 From Razor: the pygmys emphatically demnonstrate one species distinctive approach to sexuality that is emphatically not homo sapien sapiens, Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 23 2005 23:20 utc | 40 fauxreal, Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 23 2005 23:37 utc | 41 considering the history of male control of resources for thousands of years, evolution works slowly, we can see, and beneficial characteristics created for one reason are not sloughed off
As I understand this argument, biological dimorphism is “social construct”? Posted by: slothrop | Jul 23 2005 23:56 utc | 42 As a interesting sidenote on the matrilinear cultures, a friend of mine over at anthropology told me that matrilinear cultures, though mostly patriarchial, are often less oppressivly patriarchial then patrilinear cultures. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 0:01 utc | 43 From what I have read of MacKinnon I would say you understand the argument correctly. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 0:08 utc | 44 Slothrop- Catherine MacKinnon (and Andrea Dworkin, may she rest in peace) do not speak for me or lots of other “feminists” I know…actually, if you think you should be able to own property in your own name, that makes you a feminist…or if you think females should be able to vote…but too many people are ignorant of the way money and education, etc. was gendered, to use CM’s jargon. Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 0:08 utc | 45 So it was not on the savannah we learned to walk upright? Guess that kills of my bully-ape theory. Ah, well, it had a good name though. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 0:13 utc | 46 bees=queen Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 0:22 utc | 47 Should I be more worried about my penis size than about the fate of the planet? Or are the two connected? Posted by: ghazzali | Jul 24 2005 0:26 utc | 49 Since I guess MacKinnon will not stop by here (would be rather cool if she did though), I will for the sake of argument argue her position as I understand it. I am not really a MacKinnon scholar, but I dabble. So if anyone thinks I am stating her position wrong feel free to correct me. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 0:33 utc | 50 ghazzali Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 0:39 utc | 51 Posted by: ghazzali Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 0:53 utc | 52 Guess I struck that writing style common to some feminists, who emulate the prose of foucault, who emulated the style of bataille, who copied the style of neitzsche, who parroted shgopenhauer, who, etc. Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 1:10 utc | 53 slothrop- you’re the scholar, not me. I don’t really follow the arguments because, for good or bad, I decided many of them were pure b.s and, yes, I’m a disgusting pragmatic empiracist for the most part, but I don’t think we know everything there is to know, or can even understand everything…so I’m not even purely an empiracist. Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 1:26 utc | 54 Anyway, pardon me being a pest, or for lacking the ability to carry on a conversation at the level of discourse that others find useful. Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 1:33 utc | 55 Faux, Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 1:43 utc | 56 Regarding Billmons original post with stupid vs. limited discourse I am reminded of something I just saw somewhere. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 1:58 utc | 57 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 2:00 utc | 58 skod- I read it so long ago, I cannot remember where the group was located, but there were communities who produced many hermaphrodites because of their genetic isolation… Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 2:01 utc | 59 @slothrop Strossen always reminds me of Friedman — under the banal rhetoric of Freedom and Choice, just another cheerleader for the commodifiers. deanander Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 2:22 utc | 61 I am getting tired, not of this discussion, but of more mundane reasons as the bright summer night is starting to get brighter and morning is approaching and I will soon head of to dreamland. One last post though (and I will read any answers tomorrow). Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 2:24 utc | 62 sorry skod Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 2:26 utc | 63 Slothrop, Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 24 2005 2:42 utc | 64 Perhaps it’s not stupidity but confusion that is problematic. Although the human penis does seem to have a mind of its own, men should not try to actually use it for thinking. Maybe that does actually indicate stupidity. Posted by: jm | Jul 24 2005 3:39 utc | 65 razor, Posted by: jdp | Jul 24 2005 3:45 utc | 66 good morning skod (assuming you’re now asleep in the midnight sun) Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 3:54 utc | 67 Are there no answers to these questions in reference to Macdworkin? Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 24 2005 21:13 utc | 68 As I understand the Macdworkin reasoning, 1st am freedoms reproduce male domination. If this is the case, then perhaps the values of “marketplace of ideas” speech “freedom” are outweighed by the state interest to protect women while also increasing gender equality. Posted by: slothrop | Jul 24 2005 21:56 utc | 69 faux real Posted by: razor | Jul 25 2005 5:32 utc | 70 @anna missed, 3:22 AM (Long after the fact): no, never despair of intelligence. Or, at least, not for that reason. If our understanding of the history of life on earth is even remotely true, stupid things have managed to cause their own extinction (or near-extinction) before. Stromatolites once lived everywhere—now they only exist in a few isolated locations in Australia. They were the first photosynthesizers, or at least the first ones we know about, and over millennia they caused the worldwide oxygen level to increase enough for the existence of animal life, which promptly started to eat them. Now they only remain in shallow waters too hostile to other life for predators to get in. There is no such thing as “stupid enough to be safe;” our only hope, in the long term, is that there is such a thing as “smart enough to be safe”—of which there is no guarantee. Posted by: Blind Misery | Jul 25 2005 8:18 utc | 71 we’re too immersed in our experience to judge if we are stupid or not or making the right decisions. Time will tell that story. Posted by: jm | Jul 25 2005 8:40 utc | 72 As I understand MacKinnon and Dworkin, I think there reasoning is close to marxism in that they have basically the same structure and replaces workers with women and capitalists with men. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 25 2005 10:35 utc | 73
Posted by: b real | Jul 25 2005 14:49 utc | 74 Biological change is slow
Posted by: annie | Jul 25 2005 15:35 utc | 75 @b real: Actually, another way to look at the problem is that we’re smart enough to get ourselves out of trouble, but we still have our “dinosaur brains” engaged. (The part of the human brain which deals with emotions is essentially unchanged from that of a dinosaur.) There are plenty of solutions available. For example, we could slaughter (or sterilize, if there’s enough time left) every human on the planet with an IQ lower than, say, 90. Result: instant lowering of the population by a vast number (thus relieving some of the strain on the ecology) and much more intelligent behavior from the remaining population. But we find reasons not to do that—nearly all (if not all) of which can be traced back to the dinosaur brain. The fact of the matter is that evolution is a lazy process. Nothing changes unless there is a reason to change. Human beings have been tremendously successful. There has been no need for human beings to make anything other than slight behavioral changes (we even eat the same basic source foodstuffs our ancestors did!) in recorded history or, as far as we can tell, prehistory. In order to make evolution start working on humanity, we either have to make a deliberate move (i.e. slaughter or sterilize groups which are deemed retrograde) or wait for a crisis which will kill or disable most of us in any case, and which is almost certainly coming in the form of ecological disaster. The difference is that if we ignore our dinosaur brains and choose a deliberate move, we get to pick what survives. If we wait for the disaster, it’s random. If you accept that an ecological disaster which will kill billions is on the way, then there is no argument against directed mass slaughter or sterilization which does not boil down to “I’m squeamish,” since the alternative is to let even larger numbers of people die anyway. Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 25 2005 15:56 utc | 76 we’re smart enough to get ourselves out of trouble, but we still have our “dinosaur brains” engaged. (The part of the human brain which deals with emotions is essentially unchanged from that of a dinosaur Posted by: annie | Jul 25 2005 17:02 utc | 77 we could slaughter (or sterilize, if there’s enough time left) every human on the planet with an IQ lower than, say, 90. Result: instant lowering of the population by a vast number (thus relieving some of the strain on the ecology) and much more intelligent behavior from the remaining population Posted by: annie | Jul 25 2005 17:11 utc | 78 @anonymous, dinosaur = squeamish?? Posted by: annie | Jul 25 2005 17:23 utc | 79 no name: you assume that intelligence as measured by knowledge of western civilization is the standard by which to measure survival in the event of an ecological catastrophe. That idea is absurd. Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 25 2005 17:40 utc | 80 anon- The part of the human brain which deals with emotions is essentially unchanged from that of a dinosaur. no thanks for putting that image of Barney in my head today… such plans have already been strategized by the elites. IQ is a really poor example though, when skin color is much more visible. Posted by: b real | Jul 25 2005 19:17 utc | 81 doh! “efforts widely advanced by the television” -guess i should watch my back now for the iq police… Posted by: b real | Jul 25 2005 19:20 utc | 82 [Yes, that anonymous post recommending execution of the stupid was me.] @annie: the world may go to hell in a handbasket as a result of the actions of those with high IQs—but then again it may not. It is, I would say, more likely to go to hell in a handbasket given the existing technology which cannot be realistically completely regulated on a worldwide basis as a result of the actions of those with low IQs. These are the ones who go out and buy SUVs despite the obvious higher cost of ownership, the Americans who hope for theocracy even though most of their ancestors came to America to escape such things, the people who think sending troops to another country will not have any side effects on their own country. Contrary to what some on the left, and most on the right, seem to think, they are not inherently nice. Many, possibly most, of them are utter, utter bastards. Some smart people are bastards, it is true—Karl Rove, the current arch-bastard, has proven to be so smart that you have to wonder what he’s planning with the whole Plame scandal. But keep in mind that many smart people who are bastards are only known to be bastards because they can take advantage of other people who are not as smart. If they couldn’t, they would never have shown their bastardy. If American voters were brighter, Karl Rove wouldn’t be in politics because his tricks wouldn’t work. Greed would probably also be a less severe problem if the general level of intelligence were higher. Consider the unpleasant effects of greed: everything is commercialized, wages are low, infrastructure is not maintained, and privacy is eroded. Well, if people were, in the main, more intelligent, they would foresee the effects of their actions, there would be widespread, thorough boycotts of any person or company which went too far in cost-cutting, and there would be general preference for quality over price. Just as one example: if the rate of response to telephone solicitation suddenly dropped dramatically (as it would if people were generally more intelligent, either because of drastic regulation or just people being smart enough to recognize a bad deal when they hear it), telephone solicitation would become much less profitable. The greedy people who run telemarketing companies—remember, all the dumb greedy people would be gone—would abandon the industry because there are more legitimate activities which make a profit at about that same level of work. So Karl Rove wouldn’t be the CEO of a telemarketing company, either. Nearly all theorists with utopian plans make the assumptions, stated or not, that people (1) can foresee the effects of their actions to at least some limited extent and (2) will make rational choices based on the information available. IQ does not completely correlate with these two assumptions, but it correlates better than any other factor which is measurable. If humanity is going to save itself, instead of just randomly thrashing around until the ecology collapses and we’re all screwed, whatever plan we use has to be something that can actually be carried out in practice. IQ can be measured, if not with 100% reliability, then with only a couple of points of uncertainty either way. By shuffling different tests on the same subject over time, a more reliable measurement can be had. (And presumably would be used if the outcome would determine whether they would live or die.) If anyone can come up with a measure which is more accurate and which is a better correlation to the philosophers’ two assumptions, and which preferably is less subject to accusations of bias, then substitute it for IQ and the idea of execution or sterilization will work just as well—possibly better. But don’t start blathering about “emotional intelligence”—that’s something that can’t be measured and in any case doesn’t lead anywhere. It’s what all those yahoo redneck SUV drivers use to console themselves when they realize they’re dumber than things that live in mud, if not mud itself. As for skill sets practical for survival: do you honestly believe that, after the ecology tanks, hunting and gathering are going to be practical? Get real! If the ecology goes, there won’t be enough wildlife to support the world population as hunter/gatherers until most of us are dead of starvation or cannibalism. And that assumes that the hunter/gatherers will be able to survive the inevitable groups who will gather up weapons from the current civilization and pillage. (This won’t be like Easter Island, where the people were isolated from other sources of material.) By the time the population level declines enough (and, one hopes, the ecology recovers enough) to support it, there would already be farming civilizations forming, with cities, just to keep surviving. Hunter/gatherers have never, in the history of the world, managed to out-survive farmers in the long run. Besides, if everyone in the world had an IQ of at least 90, do you think it would really take that long for people to figure out how to keep society running? Cooperation would actually be easier, because more people would be able to see the point, and resource management would be better. And by the way, b real: if the IQ police euthenize people for typos, sooner or later they will all kill each other. Noobdy is immune from making typos. 😛 That means they would foresee the effect, being smart, and not make the rule in the first place. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jul 26 2005 0:54 utc | 83 I agree that intelligence would contribute to a better relationship with cause and effect and maybe a better environment. I think we are caught in an in between state of brain development where the primitive response and action is getting confused and the new pathways being forged have yet to fully become functional. Posted by: jm | Jul 26 2005 1:26 utc | 84 @ Truth Gets Vicious – You must know that discussing euthenasia on a lefty blog will get you no points at all, no matter how well thought out your thesis be. So get used to the idea that yes population will drop one way or another, but the drop won’t be according to an agreed plan. Posted by: rapt | Jul 26 2005 1:50 utc | 85 No ape has a dinosaur brain anymore than a dinosaur has a mitochonddrial survival instinct. Apes are social beings and that doesn’t come easy. And most apes are to smart to reduce social intelligence to an IQ test, barring, those apes who have internalized the fantasy of Mr. Spock as a description of the human. Posted by: razor | Jul 26 2005 2:35 utc | 86 i’m sorry, i have guests and am leaving for a few weeks tomorrow so don’t have time to play catch up but…. i read your comment vicious and it comes down to morals, has nothing to do w/ IQ. has to do w/ conscious. this ‘everybody w/90 or more’ just doesn’t fly. intention,greed, scruples, honesty, truth, these things can’t be measured,well, they can but not by the same standards. reflexes… ah. i love reflexes, early bird catches the worm and all that.first response, trusting your instincts. have you ever dumped a guy because of that .. reaction. whats inside someones heart and soul. wanting to achive against all odds, even odds that will make one unhappy, choosing the path of least resistance, sacraficing for the common good, the bottom line is we were all made w/ this dinosaur brain and it is the meshing of the 2 that makes either a leathal dose, or beauty beyond our wildest fantasies. who is to make the choice of which ones to die, sophie?, you (god help us), what are the chances the ones in power to decide will be pure of heart, hopefully we will never have to find out. i’d rather roll the dice. Posted by: annie | Jul 26 2005 4:06 utc | 87 I suspect the Talented Mr Ripley would have scored very high on an IQ test. Ditto Hannibal Lecter. ‘Nuff said. Posted by: DeAnander | Jul 26 2005 5:01 utc | 88 Ah, but let’s make the choice harder: suppose that I could come up with a convincing proof—like, for example, if even the oil companies started to admit that it was going to happen—that the inevitable ecological disaster (note, by the way, that I have been carefully hypothetical all along, giving the ecological disaster as my presupposition) would kill 75% of humanity, not-quite-at random,* whereas we could avert the disaster by killing the dumbest 50%. Or what if the numbers were 80% and 30%? Or 95% and 20%? There is, so far as I know, no such convincing analysis—most of the analyses which give those sorts of numbers right now make some awfully big assumptions, usually along the lines of “nobody will ever make any changes to their lifestyle or make any significant advances in energy efficiency ever again” but if there is a big disaster coming, we may yet see such a thing. At what level of difference will the planned destruction become acceptable? Is there one? Personally, I find sins of omission to be as serious as sins of commission; if we did find ourselves in such a situation, I would consider myself guiltier if the greater number of people died needlessly, even though I would still be guilty for the killings in the other case. But we must play the cards we are dealt. *Once again, let’s be real about this: if there is a mass die-off among humans, although some groups will survive essentially at random, the people who are causing much of the problem now will use their access to resources to survive at the expense of others. Just like they do now, only more explicitly. So although there may be random surviving natives of Nepal, in most of North America and Europe, the good will be killed off by the bad. @annie: Yes, and what about the times you were wrong? What about the lottery tickets you bought that didn’t win? What about the people you chose to date, who turned out to be real losers? What about all the women who trust their boyfriends—until it turns out they are just waiting to commit date rape? Instinct is a worse guide than intellect; instinct doesn’t learn from its mistakes, Candide. @DeAnander: Oh, please. I suspect that Superman would win all the gold medals in the 2006 Olympics, and Hercule Poirot would get a refund on his tax return. Don’t use fictional characters to illustrate your points when real ones are so common; it makes you even worse than pinheads like Jesse Helms, who as I recall once criticized African-Americans based on the actions of a character in a movie. At least he had the pathetic excuse that he didn’t actually know of any specific real-world examples. If you want someone fairly bright who gets someone killed to acquire their riches and power, there’s always Dick Cheney, and as for tolerably bright people who feast on the flesh of the living and need to be put away for the safety of the general populace, you need look no further than George Will. (Rimshot!) Why bother using fictional characters, when, with a little thought, you can use real people? Start mistaking fantasy for reality, and you may grow up to be a Neocon! (This message brought to you by the Council for Serious Political Debate. Remember, Things Are Dumb Enough Without Ignoring Reality.™) [Cue jingle.] And now I have gotten tired enough that I’m writing drivel; time for bed, I think. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jul 26 2005 6:35 utc | 89 @annie: Posted by: annie | Jul 26 2005 7:49 utc | 90 @annie: Actually, if we have lost touch with our instinct in recent centuries, and need to return to our older values, then I ought not to be listening to you at all. My ancestors were Vikings; if I behaved like they did—well, if I did that, I’d probably end up in jail after bashing in someone’s head for disagreeing with me, or possibly just to rob them; but if I did that and got away with it then I would in particular be singling you out for disposal for disagreeing with me, not trying to argue with you and certainly not trying to do so over the Internet. Vikings don’t do the Internet; you can’t drink out of someone’s skull after flaming them, no matter how much you bang at the keyboard. If this is a question of morals, then whose morals? Yours? Why should I consider your morals better than mine? In my hypothetical 75%-50% situation, you were going to let more people die than me—and probably leave the remainder of them in a vastly worse situation than they might otherwise have had. To me, a preventable death is ultimately a murder (we are all guilty of a vast number of deaths; nobody is actually innocent because within minutes of your birth you almost certainly could have done something which would have saved somebody in the long run) and allowing the world’s ecology to collapse is torture to those left alive, making you a potential murderer and torturer. Not, from your comments, the sort of person I would trust to settle this kind of question. Funny that you should mention a clash of cultures; personally, I find comparisons between cultures to be alarming, precisely because at the moment, the nasty cultures are overpowering the “nice” ones. If the natural, instinctual course is best, then this cannot be condemned, because conflict between different groups is the natural state of affairs—if eight thousand or so years of recorded history have demonstrated anything, it’s that. The only thing that seems likely to stop the trend is if we run out of energy, and even that isn’t actually gauranteed—it is possible that the oil may last just long enough for America to figure out how to mass-produce cheap, workable fusion plants, and then where will we be? Or you might argue that China is in the ascendant—but they are doing it by beating the U.S. at its own game and becoming just as greedy and short-sighted as we are. If the only way to beat me is to adopt my tactics, I have won. Right now, the instinct-based cultures are disappearing. You can bet the Easter Islanders were instinctual, and look where it got them… And the Republicans are certainly going with their instincts; nobody ever said instinct was always nice, any more than anyone ever said intellect was always nice. If anything, the U.S. leadership is falling back into instinct by invading the brown-skinned foreigners and taking their money. My instinct tells me to survive, even if that means knocking down everyone else; my intellect tells me this is not right. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jul 26 2005 8:56 utc | 91 You are not in the position to make such a decision. Neither am I. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 26 2005 11:03 utc | 92 By the way, instinct or hunches, as I see them are not random guesses or magic but rather the conclusions of the subconscious mind as the conscoius part of our brains are only able to handle a little part of the information flow through our senses. Which would mean it is possibly a higher form of intellect. Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 26 2005 11:14 utc | 93 @annie Posted by: argh | Jul 26 2005 11:33 utc | 94 annie, Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jul 26 2005 11:48 utc | 95 Vicious- the “logic” you discuss effects my personal life. I have a son who has asperger’s syndrome..or high-functioning autism. Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2005 15:37 utc | 96 annie and skod- Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2005 15:42 utc | 97 @A Swedish Kind of Death: Actually, I had presumed that I would be treated just like anyone else; if I passed my hypothetical test (or tests), I would live, otherwise I would die. Besides, the current champion of intuition, annie, says that it’s a good thing to want to live. So basically you’re assuming that, because instinct tells you to live, intellect should tell you to die? Sorry, but that makes no sense. If instinct and intellect always disagreed, they would in effect amount to the same thing. As for my hypothetically becoming a world dictator (why bother whitewashing it with a term like “King” or “Queen”—any government where a single person has theoretically unlimited power is a dictatorship in principle): how on earth would I have gotten there in the first place if there was so much opposition? Hiding agendas has always led to no good—I know enough about history to know that—so if I were going to be elevated to a dictator, everyone would already know what I intended to do. (Quite frankly, though, being the dictator of a world full of smart people would be a job I wouldn’t wish on my own worst enemy. Smart people would see fairly quickly that dictatorship depends on a lack of effective resistance, and would be able to build effective resistance through covert planning the minute I stopped representing their perceived best interests. Thus, as long as we’re entertaining the dubious fantasy anyway, my hypothetical rule would run something like 1. euthenization/sterilization of the foolish, 2. possible euthenization of the remaining guilty—certain people I have named above as clever but unscrupulous would survive step 1; it would be tempting to wipe ’em out 3. set up a representative government and give it all my authority 4. retire and do something less stressful, like alligator dentistry or parachuteless skydiving.) @fauxreal: Did I ever represent my plan as a perfect one? No. Are you actually complaining because I don’t want to kill your child? My plan takes the cry, “give me liberty or give me death,” which many people have now stated in principal, to its logical conclusion—by assumption in the discussion (see above), the extremely stupid cannot be allowed liberty without endangering the world, so they can’t have liberty. As for navigating by Venus: unless you know how the position of Venus changes over time, and how to do reckoning based on your current position, both of which are feats of intellect, not instinct, that knowledge is useless. And how do you suppose they even figured out to look at the sky to navigate in the first place? During the period before the Renaissance, mathematics was considered to be dangerously un-Christian (place-based representation, which is basically necessary for sustained mathematical thought, was associated with Arabic numerals, which the Church didn’t like because of their source). So all European ocean voyages relied on instinct, always stayed within sight of the coast (which is dangerous and slow), or had Jewish, Islamic, or atheist navigators. (This was one of the things which contributed towards popular anti-semitism, in fact. The Jews can tell how to get from one place to another when we can’t? Obviously, they have a pact with the devil, who feeds them the information, and they’re using it to get rich at honest Christian merchants’ expense! There’s your instinct at work for you: fear the foreigner.) The instinct approach worked so poorly that after a while it basically died out. Then as now, people who own boats want to recoup the investment before the boat sinks, and slower, less reliable navigation does not make them happy. The period of Euopean exploration basically only started once the average sailors started listening to their intellect and learned to use arabic numerals and geometry for navigation. Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jul 26 2005 17:41 utc | 98 “Truth” said- Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2005 18:01 utc | 99 @fauxreal: I didn’t realize you were a student of the Cheney school of debate. From my perspective, you raised the objection that I would allow your child to live while others who were more suited to survive would perish. That suggests that you would be more approving of my idea if it destroyed your child (and those like your child) and let others live in their place, because then you would have one less objection to the idea. Correct me if I’m wrong. You seem to prefer, given my hypothetical situation, letting everyone die over making an attempt to save some subset of the population, apparently because you feel that nobody should make that sort of decision. But we all make that sort of decision all the time—do you invite all the destitute into your house, feed them, and provide them with care? If not, you’re letting them suffer and in many cases die by choosing not to do so. And even if you do, there are more homeless people out there; you have chosen to live where you do and save the specific group that you save, letting the others go. Refusing to choose is, in itself, a choice, and in my scenario, it is actually the nastier of the two. That is why I am shocked by the reluctance of this group to say anything on the subject. We’re like the Bush administration: we won’t even discuss a contingency which is possible (can you deny that there’s a big environmental catastrophe coming? It is possible we could avoid it by removing the people who are, at the root, responsible for the forces unleashing it) as long as it doesn’t mesh with our philosophy. I am a leftist for purely intellectual reasons. I now feel like the character in the old G. K. Chesterton story: “His antimilitarism was of a peculiar and Gallic sort. An eminent and very wealthy English Quaker, who had come to see him to arrange for the disarmament of the whole planet, was rather distressed by Armagnac’s proposal that (by way of beginning) the soldiers should shoot their officers.” I definitely agree with the “start locally” idea; I go everywhere on foot, by bike, by bus, or by train, and buy organic (locally-grown) whenever I can; I try not to shop in chain stores when there is a local equivalent; I oppose development (which is practically impossible where I live); I use energy-efficient bulbs and keep everything unplugged when not in use; I follow the issues and I vote, even in the local elections. But I can’t say I particularly agree with this know-nothing attitude towards responsibility—if we refuse to learn and make the best choices we can, we increase our guilt, not lessen it. And, as an aside, if the ability to see Venus is a sense perception that people generally no longer employ, they no longer employ it because it is far less worthwhile than other means—should we force navigators to develop this perception anyway, even though it is in effect a waste of time, albeit a charming and traditional one? Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jul 26 2005 19:24 utc | 100 |
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