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WB: Failure is an Option
At this point, Americans aren’t even willing to ask those questions, much less answer them. Which is why the most likely scenario is that failure in Iraq will be followed by further setbacks in the war on terrorism, as the neocons (or their neolib counterparts) stumble from one ill-conceived fiasco to another.
Failure is an Option
Hmmmmm….
Billmon: Iraq indeed has become the central front in the war against Al Qaeda
However, war is still not the appropiate method against terrorism. (Billmon, you’re pretty aware of the extent to which propaganda prevades public discussion of just about everything, but I think you still fell for a few stunts, like the word-creation ‘War On Terror’ itself. It would be nice if you’d give us counterspins on this as gifted as “Cheney administration” or many others.)
…the U.S. military has made itself enormously unpopular in Iraq… However, without more troops, it seems inevitable that Iraq will continue to descend into chaos and (ultimately) something close to Hobbes’s war of the all against the all…
I sense an apparent contradiction above. Methinks more US troops mean even faster descend into chaos, or, at least, an even more assured descend into chaos after the inevitable US pullout.
Tactically, I suppose the logical emphasis would be on covering the retreat — i.e. preparing to withdraw in a way that maximizes the existing Iraqi government’s slender chances of survival and minimizes opportunities for Al Qaeda to exploit the situation.
I’m not sure. Everyone with an eye for details knows that the Iraqi ‘elections’ were a shamble, well below the standards of even the recent Iranian or last years’ Ukrainian elections.
…ok, you are doing a ‘realpolitik’ evaluation. But, even so, from the viewpoint of US elites, unless Jaffari & co can be controlled further through the money route and through all the advisors in ministries, I don’t think they are seen as having much worth: too close to Tehran. From the viewpoint of both the neocons and the Kissingerian paleocons, and possibly Brzezinski’s gang too, the best outcome would be an Iraq that can’t be a regional power factor – i.e., a fallen-apart Iraq.
Of the elites, only the ‘failed state’-focused Albrightians will see that option as the worst – unless they do the carving-up, with Bosnia as model, and with naive hopes that that would lead to stability.
Byman’s plan … (He argues, sensibly, that it’s the least worst among the five options he lists, which range from dramatic escalation to immediate withdrawal.) But as the opening step in a phased retreat — one that hopefully avoids the helicopters on the roof of the embassy bit — it could make sense.
Byman’s plan seems to be the Salvador Option in a different dressing. I don’t think any further US messing, especially covert, would do any good. Even for the US elites, from the perspective of a managed defeat: immediate pullout would at least give a chance for a ceasefire by the resistance and a post-pullout division between the different groups within the resistance, but Byman’s option would assure a continued and united fight.
I suspect, although I could be wrong, that Assad is playing footsie with the insurgency not so much to screw the Americans but to try to keep the jihadists focused on Iraq and not him.
Waitaminute. Is Assad playing footsie with the insurgency? Aren’t you falling for neocon propaganda?
First, only 5% of captured resistance fighters are claimed to be foreign. Second, most of them come from Saudi Arabia, whose borders are somehow always forgotten in US accusations. Third, how come the Syrians can be accused of willful failure to protect their borders, when the much better equipped US (night-vision goggles, radars and IR cameras, satellites etc.) can’t protect those same borders on the other side?
Posted by: DoDo | Jun 30 2005 11:53 utc | 12
Failure is not an option.
Rather a strange phrase, if you think about it. For one thing, it states a fact, because the operation has already failed, irreversibly, on the two points that mattered most in the spring of 2003: i.e. no WMD’s, and no “reconstruction” (as of commerce and public services). Failure is not an option because we have already failed. It’s interesting that this fact doesn’t seem to bother the folks who sponsored the war in the first place on these specific two grounds.
The phrase is strange in another way: if we grant that failure is not an option, then “success” will have to be redefined every step of the way, and no one can claim to know what those steps are, or where they will lead. Nor does anyone care. What has been achieved is this: the intricate, fatiguing, frustrating, complex balancing-act of the Clinton years has been grotesquely simplified. It’s a text-book example of Freud’s “death-wish,” the aggressive drive to simplify things when the burden becomes too complex. And there’s really no check to that drive, whose logical outcome is genocide.
But at least the events of the past two years have put the “First Gulf War” into context: it, too, was a drive to simplify things. The client-state of Iraq had become too complex–as indeed it had already done for two decades with the emergence of a secular state binding (with its own incalculable violence) the divided ethnic and religious elements in Iraq. Within this perspective, Clinton’s determination not to engage in a ground-war became a passing irritation, a minor inhibition, to the forces of a driven and mindless violence. “Failure is not an option” then takes on the meaning of “we will always ignore the complexities on the ground” (as these are posed, say, by the promise of pan-Arabism, secularization, centralization, and state socialism). And we can apparently afford this: first, because we can lose any number of American soldiers, who are, in the last analysis, merely mercenaries, whether in uniform or otherwise, and second (though I have trouble comprehending this) the USA can apparently “afford” a war that will cost at least a trillion dollars.
Ther’s a hitch, however–namely the situation in Israel and Palestine, which I take to be the major concern of those for whom “failure is not an option”. How do you not fail in Israel and Palestine? What does it mean “not to fail” there? Is it “not a failure” to exterminate the Palestinians, or export them on a “trail of tears” to some other corner of the universe? For these are the logical outcomes of this enterprise. Can we actually afford this? I have no doubt, given the hardening of our body politic, that we would learn to tolerate such actions provided we could finance them, for I know of no counterforce that might stay our violent hand: certainly not Europe’s, not China’s, not Russia’s, and not Greater Islam’s….
Posted by: alabama | Jun 30 2005 16:35 utc | 44
@DeAnander
” … the flavour of betrayal you mention … ”
Text, unnuanced words, are insufficient to the task … but little by little you are more and more soiled … your soul … by participating, planning, committing directly and indirectly … actions that become ever more difficult to rationalize away as ‘Duty’, ‘the mission’, when they collide with the full wieght of the actual meaning of Truth, Justice, Honor.
Forget LeCarre’ and other fantasist entertainment bullshit. The mystique is fostered, encouraged by those involved so as to feel special, ‘elite’, exceptional … it is nothing but Ego and escapism. And is used along with so many other snake-oil devices to ensnare/recruit with dreams of glory, heroism, adventure.
When you’re ordered to ‘cut loose’ an asset, knowing full well what the consequences will be, and you do … if your human, a part of your own soul dies.
Once enough of your soul dies, you are no longer to take pride in your service … the ‘mystique’ is abhorrent … the regret, guilt … shame … is …
There are those that revel in the portion of unfettered power over others given them by serving in the machine (Military, Intelligence, Foriegn Service) that plays ‘the great game’. Whether it be in the abstract or up close and personal. Many are simply ‘unaware’ of the part that they play … merely a cog .. Gung-Ho and jingoisticly ‘Patriotic’ … blind to both the personal and holistic reality … blind to the consequences.
In interrogations most are role-playing or acting thier part, professionally, in order to perform the task … then there are those that obtain a pseudo-sexual sado-masochist thrill from the total dominance of a helpless nother … those are the ones that if not collectively ‘checked’ by the rational, use thier skills to manipulate and seduce others to abett thier desires and seek to obtain control, command of the process to thier own, disguised, ends … yet they are the ones that fiegn the greatest patriotism and cloak themselves in the mantles of ‘Freedom’ and ‘Democracy’, Truth, Justice and Liberty. They or to a lesser degree, the ‘unaware’, are the ones that can be used, manipulated themselves, by the policy makers dealing in abstracts, to go yet one step further … again and again … until there are no rules, no conventions, no restraints, no honor, no humanity.
Without Honesty and Honor, above and before all else … thier is nothing but ash.
I’m rambling, sorry … the skill to communicate what I’m trying to impart is beyond me .. it slips through my grasp of expression.
Posted by: Outraged | Jul 1 2005 8:43 utc | 58
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