.. or even a bit higher.
by Barchart.com with additions by Bernhard
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June 6, 2005
US$ 65/bl By Mid October
by Barchart.com with additions by Bernhard
Comments
With the Euro dropping a bit, oil prices should level off for a little while before going up again.
Posted by: doug r | Jun 6 2005 14:17 utc | 3
No, no, no. The reasonably reputable outfit I work for from time to time is predicting that because oil is going to come gushing out of Iraq very shortly, the price is going nowhere but down (to 2009 at least). Or at least that’s how the forecast was explained to (an incredulous) me last week.
Also, the pesky hedge funds are messing up the oil market, and that’s going to be sorted out as well in the not too distant future (insert more incredulity).
Posted by: Dismal Science | Jun 6 2005 14:24 utc | 4
And then it will blast through the channel beyond that number, and all bets are off.
Posted by: Jérôme | Jun 6 2005 15:43 utc | 6
Demand destruction, for example minus 15 mbpd, will solve all these small, insignificant problems.
Markets work! Prepare for the new equilibrium in oil markets!
Posted by: Greco | Jun 6 2005 16:19 utc | 7
Scania has started talking about peak oil:
In terms of fuel, we expect a steady evolution. Oil production will peak around 2008, according to some researchers. This will lead to a continued increase in fuel prices, thus gradually making alternative fuels a much more attractive proposition.
http://www.scania.com/news/Press_releases/n05025en.asp
Posted by: Greco | Jun 6 2005 16:28 utc | 8
I’m sure Bushco is working on a method to turn the Iraqis themselves into oil, Soylent Black or something of the kind.
Posted by: Lupin | Jun 6 2005 16:55 utc | 9
B,
Looking at the graph there is a clear change of tendency around July/August of 2003. That was about when the UN was bombed, and it became clear that Iraq was in for a long insurgency.
So how much has it cost the US consumer?
Trend to July/august 2003 $25-30/BBl
Now $50-55/BBl
Difference $25/BBl
USA consumes around 20 million BBl/day
Average difference July 2003 to May 2005 $12.50
Cost per day = $12.50*20 millions = $250 millions
Cost per month $7.5 billions
Cost since July/Aug 2003 = $165 billions
Current cost = $15 billions PER MONTH
You are forecasting on the basis of a trend line. But I suspect the damage is done already. It takes about 18 months for the effects to work their way through the economy, so what we are seeing is the effects of $30 oil.
Posted by: John | Jun 6 2005 18:23 utc | 10
RE Caribean banking. found out today that eligiblity for listing in HK is restricted to companies founded in China, HK, Bermuda, and Cayman.
Amazing.
Posted by: citizen k | Jun 6 2005 20:24 utc | 11
RE Caribean banking. found out today that eligiblity for listing in HK is
What does that mean? What’s HK?
And let’s not forget that just before Iraq Invasion, SH caved & agreed to all their demands as long as he could stay “in power”. Good decision making, guys.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 6 2005 20:38 utc | 12
Drum has posted a review of Twilight in the Desert over at WM, with a comment thread here>.
Posted by: Tom DC/VA | Jun 6 2005 21:55 utc | 13
Alaska Oil Field’s Falling Production Reflects U.S. Trend
Nationally, daily production of oil and natural gas liquids dropped last year to an average of 7.2 million barrels a day — a 36 percent decrease since peaking in 1970. At Prudhoe Bay, average daily production last year was about 450,000 barrels a day, a 72 percent drop from its peak.
With demand increasing domestically and abroad — particularly in China and India — supplies are being pushed to their limit, sending crude oil prices to record highs. The world has gradually lost spare pumping capacity that used to serve as an emergency reserve that could be opened as needed to moderate prices.
…
“Our dependence on foreign oil is a direct threat to national security,” Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) said at a recent news conference as he pushed to allow drilling in the wildlife refuge. “People fail to realize that our dependence on rogue states and militant nations makes us weak.”
But analysts said that none of the congressional plans on the table would come close to shaking U.S. dependence on foreign oil. They said companies already are doing what they can to boost sagging production at Prudhoe Bay and other big fields.
Steps could be taken to help reduce consumption, perhaps easing somewhat the imbalance between the demand for oil and the supply. But in the long run, geologists say, the only question is how rapidly production will fall.
i thought the plans were to sell that wilderness oil,that will take years to get pumping anyway to japan? whats ted talking about?
Posted by: onzaga | Jun 7 2005 8:52 utc | 16