The number of US soldiers killed in Iraq has reached about 1,600. In the Vietnam war the number of local casualties was about 50 times the numbers of Americans killed.
The protection and medical care for GIs is now more advanced. If we assume a likely factor of 75 for local casualties at least 120,000 Iraqis have died in the war by now.
But aside from these painful numbers, the United States will lose this war, the Iraqis will win. I was struck how well this (shortened and adapted) resistance strategy paper I read today fits the situation.
America’s manpower, her raw materials, and her financial resources are all inadequate and insufficient to maintain her in protracted warfare or to meet the situation presented by a war prosecuted over a vast area.
Added to this is the anti-war feeling now manifested by the American people, a feeling that is shared by the junior officers and, more extensively, by the soldiers of the invading army. Furthermore, Iraq is not America’s only enemy. America is unable to employ her entire strength in the attack on Iraq; she cannot, at most, spare more than half a million men for this purpose, as she must hold any in excess of that number for use against other possible opponents.
Because of these important primary considerations, the invading American bandits can hope neither to be victorious in a protracted struggle nor to hold a vast area. If we can hold out for three or more years, it will be most difficult for America to bear up under the strain.
In the war, the American brigands must depend upon lines of communication linking the principal cities as routes for the transport of war materials. The most important considerations for her are that her rear be stable and peaceful and that her lines of communication be intact. She cannot disperse her strength and fight in a number of places, and her greatest fears are these eruptions in her rear and disruption of her lines of communication. Another important American objective is to profit from the natural resources, finances, and manpower in captured areas and with them to augment her own insufficient strength.
Certainly, it is not to her advantage to forgo these benefits, not to be forced to dissipate her energies in a type of warfare in which the gains will not compensate for the losses. It is for these reasons that guerrilla warfare conducted in each bit of conquered territory over a wide area will be a heavy blow struck at the American bandits. Experience has absolutely established the truth of this assertion.
The Americans are waging a barbaric war along uncivilized lines. For that reason, Americans of all classes oppose the policies of their government, as do vast international groups. On the other hand, because Iraq’s cause is righteous, our countrymen of all classes and parties are united to oppose the invader; we have sympathy in many foreign countries including even America itself. This is perhaps the most important reason why America will lose and Iraq will win.
The progress of the war for the emancipation of the Iraqi people will be in accord with these facts. The guerrilla war of resistance will be in accord with these facts, and that guerrilla operations will produce victory is the conviction of the many patriots who devote their entire strength to guerrilla hostilities.
It is obvious that the resistance in Iraq follows the above analysis. Disrupt the American lines of communications, deny America any occupation benefit (oil) and bid for time to turn the public mood in America and elsewhere against the war. I do not see any possible way for the American war machine to successfully counter this strategy.
Sheik Mao Abu Tse Bin Tung will win.
