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May 8, 2005
And Where It´s Going

lifted from a comment by Lupin:

Where the US of A is and where it’s going.

Please feel free to jump in and pick apart my short-hand graphs.

  • Domestic: It seems the NeoCons have either successfully staged a coup or are in the process of (cf. stolen elections, twice, filibuster, Bolton, etc.)
  • Economy: Don’t understand much, but it’s going to tank, not if, but when and how much? Oil: lasting emergency. Dollar sinking? Depression threatens.
  • Society: The very rich will grow richer (what better time to buy assets than in a recession?) while the growing poor (bankruptcy bill etc.) will make excellent cannon fodder (want a green card? your debt written off?) or will worry too much about their survival to be a nuisance. Complicit media (as always) will keep the population entertained.
  • Religion: As always in such periods, growth/return of Orthodoxy Faith in force, growth of intolerance, concomitant decline in Science & Innovation. US no longer "world leader".
  • Foreign: Overt domination of tde Middle-East sought (oil); increased antagonism towards rival powers (EU, China). As economy tanks, brute military force takes over as leverage. Add to the mix: passive opposition/sly undermining from rival powers (fearing US might) plus revenge-driven Arab para-military (so-called terrorist) strikes, pushing the US further into decline.
  • Psyche: Enormous disconnect/denial in US population between self-image and reality; plus historical inability to compromise; will break rather than bend.

    • Conclusion: This reminds me of the Pre-Fall of the USSR, with better TV. I need not elaborate here. Worse in some respects because of oil (or lack thereof).

    I think the US is already on a course that cannot be reversed. Or can it? I don’t think so. Most of the factors listed above are already set.

    So we are watching the beginning of the Fall and Break-Up of the USA in real time, as we watched that of the USSR 20 years ago.

    What Russia became – oligarchs, broken military, disguised autocracy, massive pauperization, ec. – is likely the future of the US of A in the next decade.

    As even Ukraine eventually chose to split, I’m not even taking the option of some States (California?) seceding off the table.

    Planet-wise, I’d guess there’ll be massive reorganization of all flows following large-scale disruptions.

    Posted by b on May 8, 2005 at 11:37 UTC | Permalink
    Comments

    I think the US is already on a course that cannot be reversed. Or can it?
    i don’t know… but, i do think that if we give up and don’t try to reverse course, then things will be more likely to proceed as you’ve described.
    btw, i’m not making any comment on moving…. just the willful denial and silent participation in the causes of the fall.
    what to do? now that is my question. the stakes are so high, and the risks/costs getting greater.

    Posted by: selise | May 8 2005 12:10 utc | 1

    I think Lupin has nailed it except for “better tv”; tv totally sucks. All you have to do is tear yourself away for awhile and then have a fresh look. It sucks. And it is so completely the problem, imho. There is nothing real about it. Why else, in a down is up world would they call it “reality tv”? A favorite bumper sticker which I would like to have the nerve to put on my car is: Read a fucking book.
    /rant and good morning.

    Posted by: beq | May 8 2005 12:49 utc | 2

    Maybe it is not a good idea to focus on reversing what is happening. I don’t think anything can be reversed, done is done. But we can look for alternative, different and hopefully more positive ways to move on from where we are now.

    Posted by: Fran | May 8 2005 13:41 utc | 3

    What about nukes? The jittery endtimers may try to press down the finger they already have on the button. At that point, we are no longer talking about the decline of the US of A and its more or less drastic side effects but about the survival of our civilization. (Good riddance?)
    The same goes of course for the willful destruction of our environment, which may take a bit longer. If anything, I think that Lupin is quite possibly still not pessimistic enough.

    Posted by: teuton | May 8 2005 14:08 utc | 4

    @teuton: you’re right about nukes. I only touched upon it tangentially there: revenge-driven Arab para-military (so-called terrorist) strikes.
    Let me expand: Driven by revenge over Iraq, some Arabs succeed in mounting another 9/11-type strike.
    We know Putin won’t nuke Chechnya, Blair Belfast and Chirac Algiers, no matter what the Chechens, IRA or GIA do.
    OTOH, what are the odds the US won’t nuke something, somewhere? Not global thermonuke war for sure, but pretty scary nevertheless.
    Hence my: pushing the US further into decline.

    Posted by: Lupin | May 8 2005 14:39 utc | 5

    “… growth of intolerance, concomitant decline in Science & Innovation.”
    Not Necessarily. There could be a tremendous growth in war related technology. Something akin to radar in WWll? Say, oh, solar powered robots:)

    Posted by: Buster | May 8 2005 14:41 utc | 6

    Where the US of A is and where it’s going.
    “ advanced forms of biological warfare
    that can ‘target’ specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.”- (p. 60)’Rebuilding America’s Defenses’ and the Project for the New American Century
    Bush trump card?

    Posted by: Uncle $cam | May 8 2005 15:50 utc | 7

    to hell & further

    Posted by: remembereringgiap | May 8 2005 16:31 utc | 8

    I’m sure things will get even uglier than they are now, but there are some forces at work that give me hope (or will at least make things interesting):
    The deflation of Arnold. Here was a contrived demagogue riding the media wave, ready to sweep away all until he ran into the Califonia Nurses Assoc. and other state employees.
    The GOP becomes the Taliban. By taking complete power, they show their true intentions. People realize their lives are just as bleak after the passage of anti-gay marriage laws as they were before. The average person doesn’t get a real tax cut, their kids still aren’t learning and they still hate their job. Their boss is a Republican.
    The ‘progressive’ rich are organizing. Maybe not progressive, just smart enough to see that long-term survival of the system is worth a little less profit in the short-term. Buffett, Gates, et al.
    By destroying the rules and traditions of government, the GOP has opened the door for future administrations to make real changes, but for the better. I’ll leave it to Kossacks and others to expand on that.
    The hangover of consumerism- After the binge buying of crap to provide meaning to our atomized lives, we might stop and realize the importance of connecting to other people and building real communities.
    Overall, I think the great blob in the center will come to realize that the threat to their well being is from the far right, not progressives. The Social Security debate may come to be seen as the turning point.

    Posted by: biklett | May 8 2005 16:34 utc | 9

    I recommend “The Long Emergency” by James Howard Kunstler. For an excerpt see here.
    He is making similar predictions and doubts that things can be reversed. The sense of cautious optimism present in his previous books (e.g., Home from Nowhere) is gone.

    Posted by: tee | May 8 2005 16:51 utc | 10

    The US has been in slow economic decline since the 70’s. Only the fall of the more corrupt USSR masked things for a while. No one expects the younger generation of this country to live better than their parents, as whole, in terms of free time and quality of life.
    The US ruling class will not accept an erosion in their power. They see it happening, and that’s what Iraq was about. But the power play failed. They won’t give up. These fuckers will salt the earth with nuclear weapons before losing out on their obscene chunk of the pie.
    We have to be willing to throw our proverbial wooden shoes into the machine to stop them. Striking is still the best power play workers have.

    Posted by: benr | May 8 2005 16:55 utc | 11

    Of course reversal is possible. What this will take is for a lot of the enabled, read media gentlemen, to speak the truth and clearly and repeatedly depict the consequences. Rove/Bush puts up a tough image and have several supporters who are willing to go for the long knives, but as usual the real power is in duping other people that he/they hold real power.
    Casual reporting by Josh of Social Security Privatization has forced it from light of day to an item that must be forced through in the dead of night, if at all. Had anyone else pushed equally as hard, it would have been shelved forever. If Josh and others had been pushing Bolton’s infamy as hard as Steve Clemens, or in conjunction the NSA intercepts would have been page 1 of the WaPo and NYT. United consistent reporting will drown out the pill popping republican machine. They are inherently unable to do introspection, happy pills do that, and so always lean too far in a given direction, making them vulnerable.
    Again the memo from the British is a great starting point. It’s bigger than Watergate and should serve as a constant drumbeat to show the true color of all GOP proposals and actions. Let’s stop with this pseudo-econ BS about when the economy will tank, because we all know it will, and focus on the high crimes at hand.

    Posted by: patience | May 8 2005 17:18 utc | 12

    The rise of multinationals within the US, and the rise of a new type of government – a corporateocracy are things I see. A couple of books come to mind – A Handmaids Tail, and A Wrinkle in Time. 1984 and Brave New World just don’t seem right to me. Canada is not moving in the same direction as the US. A possibility is that the US will eventually eliminate any threat of terrorism on its soil by adopting a North Korea type solution. This is very early in the game though. The US has looked at the edge during McCarthy, and has not gone over.
    As for how to undo the damage. I can not help but think that what is happening is the economic collapse of the United States. We are seeing a political crisis and economic crisis together. I am not an economist. I am giving up on them. What made sense to me is The Death and Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs. She proposes that an economic unit exists and that economic unit is a city. The solution to the problem is not through national programs, nor through big business. It must be a local change, and the rise of small business.

    Posted by: edwin | May 8 2005 19:56 utc | 13

    What’s all the gloom about the future – soon they’ll make xUS & Mexico one country, and it’ll be official that it’s a Third World Country. Destroying pension funds is a deliberate top down preparation for that. That’ll distract everyone by provoking Yugoslavian style civil wars. (Bets on how long the Minimum Wage lasts.)
    Saudi Arabianization, one might call it – power split between the Pirates & Theocrats. Everyone else fucked. (Turns out it’s not just Air Force Academy that’s being taken over by theocrats, who don’t deserve a goddamn capital “T”. I heard someone this week whose daughter taught at West Point for 4 yrs – no dates. Same problems there. Theocrats assaulting young officer corps everywhere.)
    While Europeans may want to laugh at xAm. getting their just desserts, remember that “bottom” 80% of Am. citizens already have a Lower Standard of Living than their Euro. counterparts, and they’re the ones who’ll get hit. (So much of what’s called “our consumption” is a function of the fact that tragically for the future, America was built in the Age of Cheap Oil; while Europe has a vastly more efficient infrastructure etc… Suffering here will intensify exponentially.) Also, your way of life is going in the toilet as well. Pirates just took a little longer to figure out how to destroy it. Now w/ex-high Mucky Muck from WB in top job in Germany, which according to report on bbc has unemployment at highest level since the 30’s, and the Pirates taking over everywhere through the fraudulently mis-named “EU Constitution”, we’re really talking about the Destruction of Western Civilization, the end of the Middle-Class Democratic Nation-State. Rise of Neo-feudal theocratic warlordism…gang wars…mini-nukes to celebrate the occasion, w/their detonation being so common, it ceases to be mentioned…. a rapid spiral, as RGiap said, to Hell & Beyond……
    A Civilization in which knowledge is so specialized does not return to a tribal, communal way of life gracefully w/out concentrated planning, made impossible by the stranglehold of the Pirates & their “free-market” hokum…It just decays, rots & explodes.

    Posted by: jj | May 8 2005 20:52 utc | 14


    Posted by: Colman | May 8 2005 21:32 utc | 15

    <sigh>

    Posted by: Colman | May 8 2005 21:32 utc | 16

    Ok…. so when do the pessamists have their say? 😉
    Seriously tho, who cares eh? Get a sense of scale of humankind and it all becomes a big joke, all the hopes/dreams/nastiness etc really is so meaningless.
    In a universe 29 billion light years across, containing over 800 billion galaxies, of which our own Milky Way is just a normal sorta one with 200 billion suns, sits our own sun orbited by earth. Earth has this pathetic self important species of nobodies called humans who really think they are something special – what a joke! On the scale of things mankind is about halfway with the same amount of smallness below their size as there is bigness above.
    The only truely amazing thing about some of mankind is the following:
    Each person has a blob of stuff in their skulls called a brain, that if used properly is able to comprehend their own unimportance based on the work that the smartest people of mankind over history has been able to discover about our existence.
    Unfortunately, I think that fictions and myths will destroy all that science and logic have discovered about our existence – still, I for one have enjoyed the ride and feel priveledged to understand what I do about the universe, to personally feel a sense of the scale of things, to know that the atoms that make me were formed in stars billions of years ago, to try and understand 11 dimesions etc.
    Hah, I laugh at all those losers like Bush/Blair, laughter and scorn are the best deflators of false self importance, they are just puny insignificant humans like the rest of us, they don’t fool me!

    Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2005 21:59 utc | 17

    More succinctly this is, or otherwise feels like, the Age of Apocalypse Now because of the confluence Western Elites Capitalist Counter-Reformation w/the Coming of the Age of Peak Oil.

    Posted by: jj | May 8 2005 22:20 utc | 18

    The one thing that always strikes me is that so many people from so many divergent political pursuasions have such a fatalistic vision of the future.
    Christians are awaiting the rapture. Environmentalists are awaiting global warming. And economists are talking global economic meltdown. I have no idea what is going to happen in the future. The one thing I do believe in is self-fulfilling prophecies.
    We are in an age without optimism and I find that extremely sad.

    Posted by: Bubb Rubb | May 9 2005 0:14 utc | 19

    If America remembers that it is a democracy then the future can be good. It takes billions of dollars and an army of yes men to keep Americans in their place. It cracked in 1932 when FDR was swept in. It can crack again.

    Posted by: Scott McArthur | May 9 2005 0:20 utc | 20

    What strikes me about now reading all of the comments is that it is now official. Everyone thinks that apocalypse is neigh. Well the one thing I know for certain is that apocalypse is not neigh.
    The anon. post reminding us or our own insignificance is important in addressing that. However more importantly, one must remember that empires do not fall over the course of one precipitating event, a day, a month or a year. Empires in the truly historical sense fall over decades to centuries.
    It seems that many here would argue that European domination of the global economics will likely continue with a fall of the U.S. Well I would argue that the U.S. in terms of empire exists not on it’s own, but as an appendance to that European economic empire as Frank would consider it, a neo-colonial empire of core-periphery relations. What is important is that the role of the U.S. could be seen more akin to the role of other satellites to greater powers in the past. Such as the short reign of the nubians in Egypt. Or the various shifts in metropole in Hellenistic Greece for another example.
    The rise of the U.S. is just another temporary shift in metropole for this larger neo-colonial empire, rising after a period of insanity where the European powers attempted to destroy each other for global control of the empire. Now they understand the importance of cooperation to maintain their control of a global empire and it is likely that within 20-50 years, the new metropole of this empire will be Brussels.
    The question however, when considering the rise of China is whether this western centered neo-colonial empire is capable of sustaining itself. China’s inroads in signing oil deals with Venezuela and other bilateral deals with S. American countries is a crack in the empire. Whether the Chinese can have the same success in courting Mid-East oil is another.
    The big question I have is whether the U.S. will go quietly. The war in Iraq is a sign that it won’t and how the U.S. uses it’s spare military capacity is a question that remains open. I have little doubt that these issues are written up in military strategy papers from the War College. How else would the NIE go so boldly as to say the primary interest of the U.S. is using whatever means at our disposal to prevent friend or foe from challenging us militarily or economically?

    Posted by: Bubb Rubb | May 9 2005 1:29 utc | 21

    US tourism ‘losing billions because of image’: Fortress America’s share of tourist market down 38% since 1992
    The US is losing billions of dollars as international tourists are deterred from visiting the US because of a tarnished image overseas and more bureaucratic visa policies, travel industry leaders have warned.
    “It’s an economic imperative to address these problems,” said Roger Dow, chief executive of the Travel Industry Association of America, tourism’s main trade body, which concluded its annual convention this weekend in New York….

    Posted by: Nugget | May 9 2005 4:27 utc | 22

    Interesting post Nugget.
    I wonder how much impact the Florida lethal self-defense law change also affects tourism there. I remember a few years ago when tourists were targets of carjacking, murder and other crimes that it became a huge concern for the state maintaining tourism.
    I know from first hand experience that the whole fingerprinting thing makes foreigners angry. Add to that the fear of violent crime from guns and viola.
    Furthermore, it amazes me that with strong exchange rates and it seems that there is something afoot.

    Posted by: Bubb Rubb | May 9 2005 4:53 utc | 23

    5 or 6 years ago, a student in my World Civ to CE 1650 class got (literally) all boo-hooey when he realized that all of the empires we had studied were gone. He had a sudden “Mother of mercy is this the end of Rico?” moment, and wasn’t particularly mollified when I told him I thought that the beginning of the end of the American empire was the Tet offensive.

    Posted by: Brian Boru | May 9 2005 6:00 utc | 24

    what can you say when bush and putin play cars after all the going back and forrth about who is more democratic? the absurd. the world will end with two small minds playing who has the best toys. bunker buster bombs. what is the difference between the failed socialist policies or democratic plutocracy. oh, we have no choice. like pat robertson said its all plate tectonics.

    Posted by: it is here | May 9 2005 12:42 utc | 25

    If Clinton or Kerry had invaded Iraq the Republicans would have been screaming about the costs, the corruption, the brave and blinded American dead, the irresponsibility of unconsidered, badly planned, hopelessly hubristic foreign adventures – and the need to take care of America at home, stop outsourcing, help farmers and industry, cut illegal immigration, create community spirit, get single mothers into work programs, and so on.
    About The WMD lies they would have been stellarly hysterical, rabid and frothing at the mouth, and impeachment would (maybe, I can’t really judge) have followed.
    The Democrats would have beaten the liberation and democracy drum – all those poor Iraqis without women’s lib and proper health care. (Decent health care without electricity is impossible.) And the schooling! How disgusting! Saddam in mentioned on many pages! Support our troops! Gays are strong fighters too!
    Americans must first transcend the false opposition – the Red and Blue teams that offer nothing but the opportunity to oppose others on trivialities, beat one’s own drum and pretend to hope that if others were in charge things would be different.
    P.S. Clinton avoided invading Iraq but agreed to all the cruel preliminaries. Kerry would have gone in shooting hard.

    Posted by: Blackie | May 9 2005 17:00 utc | 26

    The right-wing élite’s plan to ensure permanent control over the American public is quite simple: they intend to turn the U.S. into a nation in which everyone except themselves is poor, pious, stupid and scared.
    And it’s working.

    Posted by: vaara | May 9 2005 17:06 utc | 27

    Let’s see if I can open out this discussion a little: too much doom and gloom for me to handle.

    Domestic: It seems the NeoCons have either successfully staged a coup or are in the process o

    I think this is still in the balance. It depends on either truly awful economic collapse that they can blame on enemies of the US – and that might or might not work – or putting off the collapse until after the next presidential election. Bush isn’t having much fun pushing his agenda at the moment, and a collapse in Iraq would destroy their little project. Democracy in the US is not dead: they can tweak the results, but only a few percentage points. They can’t tweak a landslide.
    I guess your view here depends on how much brilliance you assign to the neo-cons. I think that they are excellent marketers and appallingly incompetent at everything else, so I don’t share peoples’ fear of them. They have fucked over everything they’ve touched. Hell, they even managed to lose an election on the back of 9/11 and a war through their incompetence. Luckily for them it only required a little massaging to swing it their way. If they can’t pull it off again in 2006 the investigations will begin …
    However, if you view the universe as a war between elites and the good guys (who are they anyway?) then the sky is falling, since obviously it doesn’t matter who gets in power. (Does anyone know how I sign up to be in the elite BTW? Just covering my options …..)

    Economy: Don’t understand much, but it’s going to tank, not if, but when and how much?

    This seems likely. This could be a bad thing for the neo-cons, a good thing for everyone else. Depends how it plays out. I don’t have a good sense for the range of scenarios here yet: I’m planning to put one together. The range of possibilities seems to run from a relatively soft landing starting in the near future to a total collapse in three to five years time. It could be sooner or it could be later. I’ve no opinion on the consequences for the rest of the world yet. Has anyone got a link to a source for economic failure scenarios? There are some (reasonably ethical) investment opportunities I need to evaluate. Seriously.

    Psyche: Enormous disconnect/denial in US population between self-image and reality; plus historical inability to compromise; will break rather than bend.

    This is already in place. Maybe enough of them will wake up to reality and move to bring self-image and reality closer together. This is the key.
    The rest of your points seem to be consequences of these three.

    Posted by: Colman | May 9 2005 17:46 utc | 28

    Song: When the President talks to God

    Posted by: Nugget | May 9 2005 17:47 utc | 29

    that can ‘target’ specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful too

    Last I looked, humans are all so genetically similar that this won’t work. It’s the biowarfare version of Reagan’s Star Wars project – lots of money, no possibility of results. Did the conventional wisdom on this change recently?

    Posted by: Colman | May 9 2005 17:50 utc | 30

    I am not an economist. I am giving up on them.

    I think you’re confusing economic ideologues with economists. It’s as if you write off all of philosophy because Ayn Rand wrote a pile of steaming manure* and called it philosophy.
    * Nasty manure, not nice horse manure of course. Commercial pig manure maybe. That would be appropriate.

    Posted by: Colman | May 9 2005 17:54 utc | 31

    Those responsible are not just the ‘right wing elites’. The ‘left wing elites’ have played all manner of supporting, patsy roles – they need their take offa the gravy train too and are quite pracitsed and cute. Convincing! Besides that, the US voters or Volk have amply demonsrated that they adhere to the current hegemonic bent – ‘hate of Muslims’, say, just as an example, although the right/left discourse varies a bit, with the ones all for torture, the others for saving them from themselves… Neither wlll put a stop to the killing and bombing.
    They cannot: their legitmacy and survival rests on muscle.

    Posted by: Blackie | May 9 2005 17:55 utc | 32

    the above was in response to vaara’s post at 1;06 pm.

    Posted by: Blackie | May 9 2005 17:59 utc | 33

    Rumors of our death have been greatly exaggerated. I think we will pull through. We have a huge responsibility to the world to pull through.

    Posted by: la | May 9 2005 19:04 utc | 34

    This might help.

    The prospect of a rapidly destructing regressive movement in America is neither a liberal fantasy, nor predicated on a sequence of ridiculously improbable requisite developments. Indeed, the background pieces are already in place: an unpopular president heading toward deeper unpopularity on the basis of his policies alone, a weak economy undercutting increasingly frustrated working Americans, and a press which is now timid but could not ignore stories of such magnitude. All that is missing is a Democratic congress with the guts to lift the lid on the cesspool of the Bush administration. Given general public dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, a Democratic rout in 2006 is hardly a fanciful prospect, and its impact might be felt for a generation.

    -David Michael Green

    Posted by: beq | May 9 2005 19:33 utc | 35

    Blackie at 1:00 pm: I think that was right between the eyes.

    Posted by: teuton | May 9 2005 20:14 utc | 36

    So Bryan: you teach World Civ as well? I had quite a similar experience after a lecture on Spengler!

    Posted by: Diogenes | May 10 2005 12:36 utc | 37

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