sorry for the typos –
bigger picture:
There is a genocide going on in Iraq – what are going to to about it?

Posted by: b | Apr 12 2005 23:00 utc | 4

> There is a genocide going on in Iraq – what are going to to about it?
nothing, because it is not in the interest of the moneyed class to interfere.
racism and other prejudices of the “other” are always thought sets instilled in the people by the same moneyed classes when they see some way of making a profit or advancing their interests by way of it.

Posted by: name | Apr 12 2005 23:33 utc | 6

Vis a vis the ‘Muslim thing’ if anyone wishes to delve a little deeper then the following might be of help:
Être musulman européen : Etude des sources islamiques à la lumière du contexte européen par Tariq Ramadan
To Be a European Muslim by Tariq Ramadan
American edition of above
Muslims in France: The Way Towards Coexistence by Tariq Ramadan
A little dated now (1999) but has information about disparities in unemployment rates (i.e. Algerians seem to fare worse than Moroccans), number and origins of Muslims (in order of most numerous, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Senegal, Mali, the Lebanon)and other useful material.
Les banlieues de l’Islam par Gilles Kepel
Dated (1991) but still useful.
Western Muslims and the Future of Islam by Tariq Ramadan
American edition of above
Muslims and the State in Britain, France, and Germany by Joel S. Fetzer, J. Christopher Soper
American edition of above
Muslims on the Americanization Path? by Yvonne Yazbeck Haddad (Editor), John L. Esposito (Editor)
“There are now more Muslims in America than in Kuwait, Qatar, and Libya combined. It is the second largest religion in France and the third in Britain, Germany, and North America. Leaving aside immigration and conversion, birth rate alone ensures that in the first part of the twenty-first century Islam will replace Judaism as the second largest religion in the United States…..”
A pre-9/11 publication that will doubtless have had much of its optimism blunted.
Desperately Seeking Paradise: Journeys Of A Sceptical Muslim by Ziauddin Sardar
To be published in the U.S. June 30th 2005, in France on June 23rd in Britain on the same date (but already available there in hardback or in earlier paperback edition ), this book is like a Muslim Kerouac’s ‘On the Road’ (complete with hair-raising narcotically influenced journey with a crazy truck driver in Iran).
I cannot recommend the Sardar book highly enough. If you want to take a strange and fascinating journey through Islamic history and politics and come to understand the divisions, the diversity, the histories and cultures of a complex interwoven tapestry of peoples nominally bound together by a single religion (but of course, with national, regional and local variations), and want to laugh as you learn this is the book for you. Brilliant scholarship and entertaining writing from a man who once turned down a $5,000,000 ‘gift’ from the Saudis so that he could retain the right to be critical of them and who gives you the whole story of Muslim attempts at inner reform and the challenges relating to Muslim integration anywhere.

Posted by: Nugget | Apr 13 2005 0:32 utc | 8

From The Future of Work
Already the United States ranks only 11th worldwide on the Global Creative Class Index. If Florida’s reasoning is correct this is a leading indicator of innovation and economic growth. A decade of this and all the current developing technologies, ideas, and products in the development pipeline will be exhausted and our economy will fall flat.
The United States of America – for generations known around the world as the land of opportunity and innovation – is on the verge of losing its competitive edge. It is facing perhaps its greatest economic challenge since the dawn of the industrial
revolution.
All indicators are pointing in this direction. The number of graduates in science and technology, patents issued, dollars invested in research and development (especially at the Federal and State levels), immigration, and number of foreign students – every one of these measures suggests that the United States is on the decline.
Also this, from March 23, 2005:
The Council of Graduate Schools reported a 5 percent decline in international graduate student applications at American schools from 2004 to 2005 in a report released this month.
“We don’t think the number of international students is making a comeback after 9/11,” said Heath Brown, director of research and policy analysis for the Council of Graduate Schools. “The decline indicates a long-term trend toward less graduate students studying in the U.S.”
The decrease in applications marks the second straight year of decline since the council reported a 28 percent decrease in international applications in 2004.
–the way the US has been a center for development of technology over the past decades has been through importing graduate students for R&D done first at Universities, and later at companies.
previously Europe did not develop its graduate programs with the same sort of aggressiveness that the US did…though they have traditionally done a better job at secondary and licensiate (or undergrad) levels of education.
or this:
The number of IT and Engineering students is dropping in the US. These are the two biggest sources of CEOs for Fortune 500 companies.
Since there is no market in the U.S. for IT, and since there is no push for engineers to use their knowledge toward energy futures, no leadership among our politicians….
sorry, but I would tend to doubt that SBA prediction. Maybe the first decade of 21st century will be a replay of the 1920s…at one point, something like 40k Americans were living in Paris alone, who had left to escape prohibition, the rise of the KKK, lynchings of “commie” workers, or commie sympathizers, for that matter…
the current powers that be and their media whores are wholeheartedly for a return to THOSE good ole American values.
damn, everytime I start thinking about this (actually, I think about it nearly everyday at some point) I want to get out of here…yesterday. Maybe I’ll auction myself off on ebay.

Posted by: fauxreal | Apr 13 2005 1:07 utc | 10

Nous devons compter nos moutons : French may have to buy compulsory biometric ID cards

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 13 2005 1:31 utc | 12

Jérôme – I’m afraid the Eurostat demographic predictions are rather nonsensical. They usually just mindlessly project migration and fertility rates to the indefinite future, even though they’re actually changing rapidly in many countries. This summary you quoted seems to be a scenario that’s based on projecting already obsolete rates.
For one thing, I don’t understand why the foreign demographers keep predicting declining population for us (Finland), as they’ve been always doing that and they’ve never been right. The population is always supposed to start declining in 2-3 decades and it never does. They were saying that even before we had net immigration!
One interesting thing is to take the number of children that people actually want and see what happens if you predict the population based on those. This way you actually end up with France as the most populous country in Europe, as France will grow a lot and Germany will see a major decline. (Hell, even Russia looks so bad right now that France and Turkey might (again) end up bigger than it. Now that would be interesting.)
Unfortunately, this would almost certainly not lead to a “realignment of interests within the union”, but an end to the union, unless France also changes profoundly. Judging by how it has acted so far, French leadership of the union simply would not work.
fauxreal – You’re right, the popularity of the US as an emigration destination for young Europeans has fallen dramatically. Personally, I’ve always thought I’d eventually work abroad at least for a while. During the Clinton years, I used to consider the US the prime target, as I thought it was getting saner and that those “the Teletubbies promote gay agenda!” lunatics would be nothing more than a bit of extra entertainment (we have loonies here, too, but they aren’t more than entertainment – and they tend rant about other things (“let’s invade Russia!”)).
Not so anymore, and a huge number of people at my university feel exactly the same.

Posted by: jaakkeli | Apr 13 2005 3:05 utc | 14

from jdp
We basically have open borders. I don’t know the statistics, but he claimed the US has 80 of the top 100 colleges and universities in the world, and I do know for a fact that US graduate programs rank the highest.
we HAD open borders. now Canadians and Americans have to have passports to go between countries. Bush is for allowing illegal immigrants to work here, but those situations are not the same thing as culling some of the top students from China and India and Korea and Austria and Spain, etc. etc. for grad. studies/research that is then used by private industries, once it’s past the theoretical stages.
I’ve known so many grad students from so many different countries, and one of the big attractions was that America was a different culture, and that culture had a feeling of freedom…(part of that, of course, would apply to ANY culture that’s not the one you know…with some glaring exceptions, esp. if you’re female.)
Even Americans seem to feel that America has that aura of freedom anymore…there is the constant undercurrent of “be afraid” and “watch what you say” and “the radical right is making their move” kind of feeling here.
People I knew who would come here to do research would tape the tv evangelists because they were so funny, and no one at home would believe this stuff was seriously on American tv…now those guys are running the executive branch, the house and trying to control the judiciary.
There is new animosity toward foreign grad students…the hoops to pass through, the automatic suspicion…the delays in approvals…
it’s not just grad students, either. Cuban musicians have been forbidden to come to my city to perform. are they really a terrorist threat, or are they an object of hate among the right wing simply because they’re from Cuba?
and, yes, we agree about grad school programs in the US. that was my point about Europe…they look much more attractive to Americans, even, (like the 1920s).
One big point from The Future of Work, I think it was, above talked about GB losing Turing after the war..researchers, even though they’re dealing in theory, can make a big difference in the economy of a nation as their ideas are tested.
can you imagine the people who are now putting out lit. about the grand canyon being created by Noah’s Ark really “getting” the value of theoretical research that might question literal Biblical belief?
but the biggest problem is that Bush Co are looting the govt and thus not putting money into programs that don’t directly benefit them.

Posted by: fauxreal | Apr 13 2005 4:33 utc | 16

> I wonder how long before a greater
> migration of Americans to other places
> might begin, …
i’ve posted a comment before saying that since about 2 years i see too many americans here in vienna to be able to explain their presence with business, the UN or tourism. these people also behave different from tourists. i will try to find out more about this by talking to a couple of them when i find time and ocassion, but there will be no statistics in the package.

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 13 2005 7:18 utc | 18

“The US is drawing many of the younger highly educated from Europe who are jumping of the wagon”
That was the case. It’s over now. The flow of Euro foreigners, even young and students, toward the US is over, and will be so for the foreseeable future. Now, it could be far worse, if only the EU had clever leaders who would see that inverting the trend and importing brains from the US is the best way to ensure the future of Europe. Luckily for the US, EU leaders are just as inept as US ones, overall.
COncerning the demographics, Jérôme, Russia already lost plenty of people, and it hasn’t been at war since 1989.
What amazes me the most is that people seriously make such projections for the next 45 years. As far as I’m concerned, with the growing international tensions, wars, with bird flu and other epidemics looming, and with the possibility of peak oil and scarce resources, I wouldn’t come with any projection beyond the next 10 years – and overall they would be very conservative. Until we know if oil has peaked and what the consequences are, until we’re sure bird flu won’t wipe out 1/5 of the planet or more, it’s a bit presumptuous to declare that Germany will fall but France and UK will slightly grow, and of course it’s totally foolish to predict massive growth for the US – as far as I’m concerned, I’d put the US-400+ mio in the same range as the Dow-36.000 lunacy, unless they assume the US will be partly overrun by Chinese or Latinos (and not overrun in a peaceful way but after some kind of war or collapse), which isn’t that likely so far.
As Bernhard said, in the past, traditional societies had huge variations. 30-years war killed 1/3 of all Germans. Black Death and 100-y war probably did the same to France. Russia lost scores of mio under Stalin and WWII. Population can massively drop and increase big time, under different circumstances.
Last but not least, I’m always amused when people come with these stats and imply the countries with decreasing population are in trouble. Well, with an already overpopulated planet, I’m not so sure. Add to that the fact that technology and economics can largely compensate for fewer population, both in the economic and the military fields (just look at the last 500 years of Europe vs the world history).

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 13 2005 9:04 utc | 20

The US State departement does not publish the no. of Americans who give up their nationality. However, it should be possible to find some numbers concerning Americans who leave the US through the IRS as they continue to tax US citizens, including those who have given up the nationality (provided they have more than X money/assets/etc.)
Here (Geneva Canton) there are always a huge number of Americans. They are imported by the companies they work for (Reuters, Hewlett, Prokter..), are sent to participate in World Organisations (Boy Scouts, Council of Churches, UN, etc.) but I have it on good authority that the tiny trickle of independents (they are not counted separately, so there are no numbers) is steadily increasing. These independents are, in the main, of two types: a) very highly qualified people over 40 with language skills who apply for very lofty posts (they will not be subjected to ordinary immigration procedures); b) people who can claim old links or family ties to Switzerland / couples where one of the spouses is Swiss, the other not. Both types come with negotiation talking points and a lawyer up their sleeve. All of them are anti Bush. A few are ex-USSR who emigrated to America, became American, and are now leaving, though I am told most of those go to Germany, as the Jews do. (There is also a big increase in German entrants, because of the unemployment in Germany.) It seems to be the case that illegals from the US and Canada are down – we used to have a lot of those because of the liberal drug laws, the hang overs of the hippie culture, and the (by now old, but still enduring in spirit…) tolerance for Viet Nam War protestors. Illegals go to the EU today, don’t want to face the stiff and rigid laws of CH.
Anecdote: Some of these people apply for many jobs at once. I was asked to sit in on an interview (the third!) of one of them the other day, but declined, saying it was not my place. This person applied for 3 top State Jobs and gossip has it, one Directorship of a semi-Gvmt. organisation.
Switzerland is attractive to them because it is not part of Europe, because of its quality of life (stability, countryside, air, lack of crime – they think – , schooling, etc.)

Posted by: Blackie | Apr 13 2005 17:24 utc | 22

faux, here is the stats from the actual slide show call “21st Century Jobs”
“Role of Immigration”
– US projected to be the only developed country that expreriences material growth until 2050
– 40% of US population growth through immigration
– Brain-drain: highly skilled workers/researchers attracted by US
Next slide: From the “Frankfurter Allgemeine” Aug 20, 2004 (maybe b can confirm this)
– 1 in 7 doctorates from germany move to the US. 30% stay there.
– Foreign academics, top three nations: China-Japan-Germany (20,000 researchers)
– 3 of 4 German Nobel Prize winners work in the US.
– 50% of all US based research results come from foreign researchers.
– 50% of US masters and doctors candidates are foreigners.
– 500k foreign students registered in US Universities.
That info was on two of the slides. Also the population info.

Posted by: jdp | Apr 13 2005 20:11 utc | 24

In education / its ultimate fruits in post doc reseach etc. / today, for countries, there are basically 3 strategies, not mutually exclusive:
1) Democratic: offer highish level educ. to all, and see to it that a general level of educ. in the population is achieved. The justification is often egalitarian, but implictly also pragmatic: people will be able to adapt, switch, be supple, understand what is going on, can perform in different envrionments, etc.
2) Invest, or bet, on an elite. Have a lower standard of educ. for the mass of students but train an elite (at cost) to take over the important tasks.
3) Forget anything beyond basic education, or give it up altogether, and import educated people, and/or outsource tasks that require high level education. Buy what you need elsewhere – much cheaper than the training of natives, in this globalised world, seen from the W.
All W countries employ a mix of these strategies, and do so through very varied mechanisms. France, and Israel, for example, seem very attached to the training of an elite. (Hautes Ecoles, and in Israel, University cum Gvmt – these are the only two W countries who regularly duck out of evaluation of primary education…) The US also, but in a lesser measure: personal gumption counts for more, barriers are easier to overcome, for some. The US has, as we all know, gone big on buying foreign talent cheaply. Countries like Germany and Switzerland, and the Scandinavians, seem attached to educating and training students up to some acceptable point. Still, it seems to be a poor strategy, they feel they have to import (at great cost) efficient managers, top scientists, etc.
So, errr, how are ‘developing’ countries to compete?

Posted by: Blackie | Apr 14 2005 18:33 utc | 26

PROJECTIONS OF THE ABOVE TYPE BY THE PUNDITS HAVE ALWAYS REFERRED ME TO THE POETIC VERSE: THE BEST LAID SCHEMES OF MEN AND MICE ARE APT TO GO ASTRAY. THE LARGEST CONSIDERATION I SEE IN DISFAVOR OF INCREASES OF POPULATIONS IS WAR BY NUKES. THE COUNTRIES PROCURING THESE DEVICES ALWAYS INCREASE AND IN SOMEWAY FIT THE PURPOSES OF THE RICH CONGLOMERATES TO BE USED AS A FUSE TO THEIR BENEFIT. SPECULATIVELY, I SEE A VAST CHANGE IN WORLD POPULATION BY 2012 AND THEREAFTER IN 2018..POSSIBLY OVER HALF THE WORLD POPULATION REDUCED. PESSEMIST? NOPE, JUST A MATHEMATICAL POLITICAL PROJECTION….BASED ON TRENDS SINCE 1939. THANKS FOR REVIEW.,,,MENTALITIES DONT CHANGE, JUST THE METHODOLOGY OF USEAGE OF WEAPONRY.. ART

Posted by: ART WALKER | Apr 28 2007 23:04 utc | 28