Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 13, 2005
EROEI PR

Energy Return on Energy Invested – Public Relations

During the research for my nuclear energy post, I came across this graph:

050413_nucl_eroei

It shows a highly favorable EROEI for nuclear plants. Of course, as it comes from the World NuclearAssociation, hardly a neutral party, I took it with a grain of salt and chose not to include it in my post.

The funny thing is that I received the following press release yesterday:

The press release is from Vestas, the (Danish) largest manufacturer of wind turbines today (with more than a third of the world market):

A V90-3.0 MW offshore wind turbine has to produce electricity for just 6.8 months, before it has produced as much energy as used throughout its design lifetime. In other words this turbine model earns its own worth more than 35 times during its design lifetime.

Furthermore, compared to the V80-2.0 MW offshore wind turbine, the 6.8 months constitutes an improvement of approximately 2.2 months.

If installed on a good site, the V90-3.0 MW wind turbine will generate approximately 280,000 MWh in 20 years – thus sparing the environment the impact of a net volume of approximately 230,000 tons of CO2, as compared to the figures for energy generated by a coal-fired power station.

The above-mentioned are two of the results from a life cycle assessment (LCA), which Vestas completed of a V90-3.0 MW wind turbine in 2004. The calculations prove the environmental advantages of Vestas turbines also when taking the whole life cycle into consideration.

A life cycle assessment is both a mapping and an evaluation of the potential impact of the wind turbine on the external environment throughout its lifetime. The life cycle assessment for the V90-3.0 MW wind turbine is divided into four phases.

– The production phase, which covers the period from obtaining the raw materials to the completion of the wind turbine

– Transport of the wind turbine components and erection of the wind turbine

– Operation and maintenance throughout the 20-year design lifetime of the wind turbine

– Disposal of the wind turbine.

Vestas provides a more detailed summary of the life cycle assessments as well as more detailed reports (see the links in that page); I’ll just steal one graph:

050413_vestas_comparison_lca_uk_1

But the nucleocrats also provide some detailed studies, summarised in this document which regroups a number of findings which I have no way to assess but which look well-researched. The graph above summarises the main finding, i.e. that nuclear energy supposedly has a great EROEI.

So, who will help me to make sense of these numbers?

Comments

I take it as an interesting sign that companies choose to communicate on this topic – that’s for the political insight.
I would be really interested in comments on how to assess if these studies are realistic or not.

Posted by: Jérôme | Apr 13 2005 13:28 utc | 1

Thanks for once again introducing a welcome “wind” of technical precision to the discussion here. Unfortunately I can’t offer a useful analysis
of the competing documents, but
they represent a useful
starting point for further investigation. The nitty gritty
calculation of EROEI probably
requires h-ero(e)ic efforts, and, absent clearly defined
procedural norms, will surely
be subject to discussion. Still, I really like the framing of the issue in technical rather than emotive or ideological terms, even though, as Deanander’s posts
clearly bring out, choices that appear to be merely technical can well have
much wider consequences and depend on more hidden parameters than is obvious from the beginning. I doubt that this is the appropriate locale
for such discussion, but I would really like to hear just
how the EROEI computations are
made. It doesn’t seem easy.

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Apr 13 2005 14:17 utc | 2

Jérôme,
The vestas graph can’t be enlarged.
I wonder if the report on nuclear EROI includes the energy needed to secure nuclear waste for a million years.

Posted by: Greco | Apr 13 2005 14:34 utc | 3

slightly OT – just out from Morgan Stanley:

Raising our crude oil price baseline for 05 and 06
We’re again marking our oil price trajectory higher, this time by roughly $7/barrel for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate through the end of 2006. We now see Brent quotes averaging $49 this year and $42 next year, versus $42 and $36 in our previous note (“Oil Price Alert: Marking to Markets”, Global Economic Forum, 18 February, 2005). However, unlike many who now see prices rising to $80/bbl. or higher, we believe that by 2006 energy quotes will have been high for long enough to affect demand. Thus, we stubbornly stick to the view that the long-run equilibrium crude price will range between $30-40/bbl.
Nonetheless, the risk for the next 18 months is that prices will stay above that longer-term level. The new driving force is stronger-than-expected global demand for refined products such as gasoline, in particular in the US and in Asia, and the limited capacity of refineries globally to produce them.

Global: Oil Alert — Products Drive Prices Higher

Posted by: b | Apr 13 2005 14:44 utc | 4

@Greco – corrected, but the pic is still quite small – I can not help with that

Posted by: b | Apr 13 2005 15:04 utc | 5

Current exhibition about impacts of climate change (Science Museum, London).

Posted by: Dismal Science | Apr 13 2005 15:13 utc | 6

Nuclear plants have the problem of centralisation and loss in transmission as well. One would assume that we would have a small number of large nuclear plants with large distribution networks against a large number of wind plants with smaller distribution networks. How much of the energy output from each type is usable? Transmission losses seem to be about 7% in the UK and US and are, as far as I know, distance related.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 13 2005 15:21 utc | 7

Jérôme:
The elderly engineers who read the magazine I work for like to write in every time we do a wind article. “People are crazy to build wind turbines,” they thunder. “They generate less energy than it takes to construct them!” And then they’d expound on the necessity of building more nuclear plants.
This always struck me as misguided–since the cost of the energy used is included in the total price, how could a wind turbine pay for itself if it had such a crappy energy return? But it’s a common theme in attacks on so-called renewable energy; you hear it repeated about bio-fuels and photovoltaic cells as well. It’s one of those shockingly cold, hard “facts” that engineers love. And they love it so much that they hold it dear even when it isn’t true.
Anyway, that’s why Vesta is promoting their energy return on energy invested. It’s to stick it to the naysaying engineers.

Posted by: jlw | Apr 13 2005 15:33 utc | 8

That was not the most coherent comment I have even posted. Which makes it pretty incoherent.
Let me try again.
EROEI is only part of the analysis. I assume that the only reason one would want to know this sort of statistic is in order to compare ways of generating electricity. Nuclear energy does have a high EROEI, but has other external costs that reduce the value of the overall package. Assigning these sorts of external costs keeps small armies of research accountants busy at conferences in sunny climes as far as I can make out.
I don’t think that helped. Oh well.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 13 2005 15:39 utc | 9

Washington, DC, Apr. 13 (UPI) — After much delay, Sasol finally received a $1.7 billion gas-to-liquids project award in Nigeria last week. Sasol aims to expand its facilities utilizing its proprietary technology to produce liquid fuels from natural gas, and to establish the fledgling gas-to-liquids industry as the most viable alternative to oil production and refining.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050413-112853-2238r.htm

Posted by: Greco | Apr 13 2005 17:53 utc | 10

Just on a quick look some of it looks strange. Natural gas has much less steel and concrete involved in first construction than nuclear, and would have about the same operating energy in cooling systems, etc. So I’m not sure how nuclear gets so much better than gas. Same deal with coal vs nuclear.
The wind power document looks about right for energy payback. There would be almost no ongoing energy costs for operation and the initial energy investment would be a small part of the initial cost of the unit.

Posted by: Tim H. | Apr 13 2005 18:23 utc | 11

I think the PR agencies have figured out that the EROEI concept/meme is percolating outward to people in the investor class, to the intelligentsia in the managerial class, and even to the proles. Therefore they now instruct their copywriters to “make it look good with regard to EROEI,” much as all toothpastes had to brag about their fluoride after the first one added some, all cars had to have digital dashboards after the first one, all clothing had to be “wrinkle resistant” after the first permanent press, etc. It will be the new buzzword and therefore a lot of BS will be written incorporating this acronym, just like all the insane BS about “green” cars now that “green” is a positive PR buzzword.
I suspect that a LOT of fudging can be and is being done in these figures, since EROEI is about cost and as we all know, true cost accounting is very seldom practised. To know how they do their calc we would have to know exactly what energy (cost) they included and how these were calculated.
For example: do they count only the energy needed to “construct” the reactor? meaning the hours of heavy equipment, welding, etc. on site the energy to transport or relocate highly specialised workers etc — or do they include the energy cost of the structural and containment-vessel steel through its entire life cycle (mining, transport, smelting, transport, milling/forming, coating, transport, assembly) and the concrete (pit mining, washing, transport, packaging, transport, mixing, pouring) and the rare metals and the plastics and so forth?
are they really doing their computation in joules or watts, or fudging by using dollar costs? i.e. are they calculating “money it takes to pay for the energy needed to build, vs money we can charge for the energy it produces” and then converting that back to KW-equivs? this is very easy to fudge as they can always assume that energy prices will go up in future as oil prices rise, so the reactor will (it’s a cinch) be built with energy that costs fewer bucks per KW than the energy it will be selling down the road 10 years or so. (of course there is also inflation…) my local city planners for some reason are allowed to use 1980 fossil fuel costs when they budget new projects — needless to say this makes them look nice and cheap.
do they include the externalised costs of soil, water, and human health impacts of uranium mining and refinement? where do the tailings go, and what costs are imposed by their dispersal or storage? are those costs fully paid or is that damage simply being left unaddressed? do they include the transport costs of the fuel including the heavy security needed for such shipments, through the lifetime of the reactor? and then there is the spent-fuel storage cost, which — frankly — since it has to be “stored safely” for several million years — appears to be infinite and therefore returns NaN no matter what other coefficients you use 🙂
anyway, I think it’s grand that EROEI is starting to be a talking point, but this also means that Enron-style accounting will be applied to KWhrs just the way it is to dollars (share values, etc) now that PR agents and prospectus-writers are using a term which was previously more common among nerds and geeks 🙂

Posted by: DeAnander | Apr 13 2005 18:44 utc | 12

When energy becomes scarce, or too expensive for many businesses, as in right about now, everyone in the US will go mad about nuclear, about coal (with spin about clean coal) and about biomass (which will be funded by the Gvmt. to reassure people.) Or not, if things work out even worse.
Because of its military might and ideological hubris, as well as the grip of a certain group on US politics, the US has not built any N power plants in the last 50 years (rough, look it up…; Still about 10 – 20% of US electricity is nuclear.) Plants cost a heap of money, require investment, safeguards, consequent training of people, a supply of uranium, and, by now, PR to downsize the demonising. It was far easier to count on the US underground, now resembling the piece of cheese I bought yesterday – full of holes and drilled to bits. Wells dry and capped — but millions of holes.
Second, to count on domineering military might, deals with ugly potentates (including Saddam), blackmail, menace, control, bombing, and in fine, preemptive war, to keep the sweet crude flowing. The US has lost the Iraq war. All it accomplished so far is to kill a lot of people and shunt tremendous amounts of funny money to corporate cronies. (And destroy Iraq along the way.) Paid for by the US taxpayer, contrary to Gulf War I, which was paid for by the In’tl community (mostly Japan and the EU.)
Just one site, there are dozens of others:
A few, perhaps four, construction licenses are still valid or are being renewed for half-completed reactors, but there are no active plans to finish these reactors.
Gov
Darley interviews:
Link
Recent (11 april 2005) on Peak Oil:
Skrebowski

Posted by: Blackie | Apr 13 2005 19:58 utc | 13

Billmon, why not post directly here?

Posted by: Friendly Fire | Apr 13 2005 20:14 utc | 14

My own theory is that no new nuke plants have been built in the U.S. not so much because of public opinion, but because public utilities act too much like private industry anymore. No private corporation has the long-term time horizon anymore to make a multi-billion investment on a plant that would take 5-7 years to install and then have a ten-year payback after startup. Only governments are going to do that.

Posted by: Tim H. | Apr 13 2005 21:13 utc | 15

Tim H. – agreed –
The current (for some years now) investor horizont is to the next quarter and the companies adapted to this.
We need a long run view (search google for Wedekind and Porsche). If the private investor side can not accept this, this the State has to do this.
I am all for keeping and maintainig central infrastructure under peoples (hopefully democratic electioned governments control). That said:
I do feel a whiff of change in the investors perspective though. Long term sure money (dividends) is just better than short term risk and chance – and this view is now -again- coming more and more into fashion.
It will take another big leg down in the stock markets to implement that hought, but it’s on the way (and I do try to profit from this mood-change.)

Posted by: b | Apr 13 2005 21:35 utc | 16

Yuk
House panel rejects boost in car mileage rule

A House committee on Wednesday voted against requiring U.S. automakers to ratchet up fuel efficiency to a fleet average of 33 miles per gallon by 2014 from the current 27.5 mpg for passenger cars.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee voted 36 to 10 against the proposal to raise federal mileage requirements, which was offered as an amendment to a broad energy bill.

But committee Democrats from Michigan, where the auto industry is based, said Congress can’t mandate what type of automobiles Detroit should make.
“People are driving around in big cars, because they like them, because they feel safe,” said Democrat John Dingell of Michigan.
Opponents to the amendment said higher mileage requirements would force automakers to produce dangerous, small cars to meet the stronger fuel standard.
..

My take, it’s not a party issue, it´s about Cheneys words “The American way of life is not negotiable”

Posted by: b | Apr 13 2005 21:48 utc | 17

Some more nuclear links via boingboing:
Wired Magazine on pebble bed reactors in China
Let a Thousand Reactors Bloom
MIT technology review
Environmental Heresies
Wired again (who pays for these articles?)
Nuclear Now

Posted by: b | Apr 14 2005 10:26 utc | 18

Investors! But why should people invest and get a return? It is absurd. In the W, people don’t invest in their children who will cost them heaps, they expect no financial return. A community like the commune I live in may invest in a garbage to electricity plant, they (and the tax payer who funds it) expect no money in return, though one might argue they are investing in the future, avoiding massive future expenditure, stocking up for the winter so to speak.
Short term, long term, right.
When the gangsters are in charge, there is nothing much to be done. (?)
Mafia-like organisations always act in what they see as a stable environment, ruled by certain unchanging general principles – that is also why they support stability and tradition in their various ways. (Honor, family, other conservative values, etc.) They function by exploiting the loopholes, weak points and breaches in the system, through intimidation, scams, agression (etc.) They are parasites on dysfunctional and vulnerable systems and need those systems to stay in place, for them not to change or evolve to a better future. “Not negotiable”, indeed.
This caught my eye today, love this kind of stuff:
‘Termite guts can save the planet’, says Nobel laureate
(…)
“But carbon-neutral energy sources are achievable. A world population of 9 billion, the predicted peak in population, could be fed with less than one third of the planet’s cultivable land area. Some of the rest could be dedicated to growing crops for energy. But the majority of all plant matter is cellulose – a solid, low-grade fuel about as futuristic as burning wood. If scientists can convert cellulose into liquid fuels like ethanol, the world’s energy supply and storage problems could both be solved at a stroke.
This is where the termite guts come in. A billion years of evolution have produced a highly efficient factory for turning cellulose into ethanol, unlike anything which humans can yet design. By exploiting these tricks, says Chu, we can use biology as a solution to a pressing world problem.”
PhysOrg

Posted by: Blackie | Apr 14 2005 16:33 utc | 19

Investors! But why should people invest and get a return? It is absurd.
right on, brother.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 14 2005 16:41 utc | 20

Investors! But why should people invest and get a return? It is absurd.
right on, brother.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 14 2005 16:47 utc | 21

Blackie, that’s just silly: there’s no way technology can come to our rescue, we’re all doomed remember? To be destroyed in a redemptive bonfire.
Sorry, I’m in a bad mood today.
More seriously, did you mean “why should people invest and get a monetary return”? Surely your community are getting a return on their investment, and we hope for their sakes that the value of the return is greater than the cost of the investment.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 14 2005 17:01 utc | 22

Oil, Geopolitics, and the Coming War with Iran

So, even while publicly focusing on Iran’s weapons of mass destruction, key administration figures are certainly thinking in geopolitical terms about Iran’s role in the global energy equation and its capacity to obstruct the global flow of petroleum. As was the case with Iraq, the White House is determined to eliminate this threat once and for all. And so, while oil may not be the administration’s sole reason for going to war with Iran, it is an essential factor in the overall strategic calculation that makes war likely.

Posted by: b | Apr 14 2005 19:26 utc | 23

And they think a war will help? If they wanted to install a sensible government in Iran the best thing they could do is cosy up to the religious authorities there. They should have lots in common with them, and it would completely destroy their authority.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 14 2005 19:33 utc | 24

Amazing, two hours ago I would not have know what
EROEI meant, but I am half way through “The Long Emergency” , it is mentioned in there and for the first time I link here thru Billmon into an energy thread. Since the coming oil crash has replaced global warming as my number one scource of ill defined anxiety, are there some links anyone could post allow me a heads up on how crappy everything is going to get?

Posted by: Leslie | Apr 14 2005 23:18 utc | 25

@Leslie:
here are a few links. googling or following links from these sites will yield more and more. the meme is spreading, it seems.
http://www.energybulletin.net
http://www.peakoil.org
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
http://www.peakoil.net
http://www.hubbertpeak.com
http://www.postcarbon.org
as to how weird and/or crappy things are going to get, I don’t think anyone has a working crystal ball. you can search back through MoA archives for “sustainable”, “energy”, “peak oil”, “wind power”, and similar topics to see what’s been said here before.
— The Flaming Trebuchet of Respectful Dissent (still haven’t quite settled on my favourite monicker)

Posted by: DeAnander | Apr 15 2005 0:42 utc | 26

The two big knocks on wind energy is constancy of supply (perhaps addressed with cracking hydrogen from water). And killing large numbers of birds. One area that comes to mind is the Central Flyway — Texas Gulf Coast to Canada. Lots of migrating, insect eating birds. It is also an area with lots of good wind. I’ve looked around but found no research on experiments with sonic devices to deflect birds from windmills. Is such work going on? Have any ornithologists been studying bird behavior with the idea of directing them away from windmills?
stonevendor

Posted by: stonevendor | Apr 15 2005 4:20 utc | 27

I heard recently that a coal power station lifetime cost of coal is 150% the construction cost. If this is true is means that the fuel cost is a much smaller proportion of coal electricity costs than I had assumed. And correspondingly, nuclear is not so far ahead.
There was a design competition to produce a sign to place on top of a spent-nuclear-fuel storage depot.
The sign must
1) last millions of years
2) signify danger after all present languages are forgotten.
Did anyone come up with a winning sign?

Posted by: g bruno | Apr 15 2005 4:20 utc | 28

Geez, DeA. We’d be shortening that to the F-TRD. Don’t think you want that.

Posted by: lonesomeG | Apr 15 2005 14:33 utc | 29

As I understand it (though I’m sure someone actually knowledgeable will chime in) wind power doesn’t kill that many birds. Glass windows are said to kill many times more. These arguments have been run through here many times. Wind isn’t a full solution, but it’s a good partial solution.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 15 2005 14:51 utc | 30

Hey, if you want to jump on the wind hating band wagon, bats are the new birds. The industry has pretty much dispelled the majority of the “avian death” myths (yeah, yeah, except for the Altamont Pass … just wait until they’ve re-powered). Research in West Virginia has shown some fairly decent sized bat kills (like ten times anything ever seen with birds). Fortunately, it’s only one small research study and looks to be an anomaly.

Posted by: Cranky Bastard | Apr 15 2005 15:03 utc | 31

Yeah, the “wind turbines kill lots of birds” argument has been pretty thouroughly debunked. Now the private motor car, that kills a lot of birds. How many of these bird-and-nuke-loving, anti-wind types are complaining about that, eh?

Posted by: Dunc | Apr 15 2005 15:14 utc | 32

I don’t really see the point of arguing wind v. nuclear. They are used for completely different things. Wind will never be able to do more than 20-30% of a region’s electrical needs without some fancy storage trickery (e.g. pumped storage, capacitors, hydrogen). Nukes are for base load.

Posted by: Cranky Bastard | Apr 15 2005 15:38 utc | 33

My son is in law school and is now working on a case regarding wind turbines and bird destruction in West Virginia. The company in question wants to put wind generators in a migration path in the mountains. The problem has not been debunked for these birds.

Posted by: Leslie | Apr 15 2005 15:49 utc | 34

The “avian issue” has been debunked, in general. If you want to discuss one particular wind site and its impact on one particular species of bird, then yes, there might be a discussion there. However, the broad generalization that mills chew up birds is a canard.

Posted by: Cranky Bastard | Apr 15 2005 16:05 utc | 35

The UK nimby (not in my back yard) lobby against wind farms certainly appears given up the argument about birds – a couple of days I saw one of their big hitters on tv talking about the job losses that wind farms posed (to tourism). He didn’t mention birds once.
Having travelled in fairly rural Germany not so long ago (between Frankfurt and Kassel), I was stunned by the way that the Germans have embraced wind power compared to us Brits, and not a little envious.
Blair talks the talk on renewables, but has yet to walk the walk.

Posted by: Dismal Science | Apr 15 2005 17:06 utc | 36

That crap drives me absolutely apeshit. WInd farms aren’t going affect bloody tourism – as many people think they dress up a landscape as think they blemish it. The main problem with wind energy in Ireland is exactly that nonsense: we have some of the best locations in Europe for wind generation, absolutely no wilderness to disfigure, and projects get objected to, and stopped, by “environmentalists” and tourism lobbies. In the meantime the government are driving a motorway more or less through the Hill of Tara and Newgrange. Oh, and we dig up large chunks of the country to feed peat-burning power stations.
I guess when the price of electricity starts rising rapidly due to fossil fuel costs they’ll catch on.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 15 2005 17:14 utc | 37

Lies! Damn Lies! Obfuscation!
Actually, not only does tourism increase near wind farms, housing prices rise, too.

Posted by: Cranky Bastard | Apr 15 2005 17:40 utc | 38

Peat burning power stations? Colman, say it ain’t so! I seem to recall reading that peat bogs are huge sinks of sequestered carbon and that scraping the top off them releases a lot of it back into the atmosphere. does this ring any bells? also, isn’t peat being “mined” extractively way beyond the regrowth rate?

Posted by: DeAnander | Apr 15 2005 18:03 utc | 39

One of the loudest voices in the nimby anti-wind farm lobby in the UK is Bernard Ingham, Mrs Thacher’s former press secretary. He is of course a supporter of nuclear, although whether he is paid for his opposition I don’t know.

Posted by: Dismal Science | Apr 15 2005 18:04 utc | 40

DeA, I’ll let you guess the answers to those questions.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 15 2005 18:15 utc | 41

Um. That wasn’t the right link. This would be the one I meant, though I like the other one better.

Posted by: Colman | Apr 15 2005 18:17 utc | 42

Suzuki on wind farms

Posted by: DeAnander | Apr 15 2005 20:43 utc | 43

@colman I liked the other one better too….

Posted by: DeAnander | Apr 15 2005 20:44 utc | 44

the fat pig ingram is a paid mouthpiece for anybody that is willing to suffer his late 19th century inanities – he like wodehouse make perfect nazis

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Apr 15 2005 20:56 utc | 45

The first word in their graph is mis-spelled, and these people are in charge of nuclear material?
“What does that button say?”
“E-M-E-R-G-”
“Energy! Hit it!”
(Boom)
Wasn’t there a Simpsons episode about this?

Posted by: Tina | Apr 16 2005 2:43 utc | 46

Cranky Bastard: Wind will never be able to do more than 20-30% of a region’s electrical needs without some fancy storage trickery (e.g. pumped storage, capacitors, hydrogen). Nukes are for base load.
Wind power output is the more stable the larger the region considered. (Granted, at the expense of greater transmission loss.) Moreover, off-shore wind is more stable.
The new Spanish government’s new long-term goal is 40% of Spanish electricity needs. (It is now on average between 5 and 10%; in the hour when the Spanish record in electricity consumption was achieved on January 26 this year, it was 13%.)
As for the storage methods you mention (that is those beyond pumped storage in the form of water power – already utilised in a cross-border fashion by Denmark and Sweden), by the time 30% wind power for larger regions (say Germany or Texas) is achieved, they will most probably have become matured. (My bet is on pumped storage with air in disused mines earlier; small-scale fuel cells/fuel cell loaders much later.)
Finally, there is another, rarely mentioned possibility for balancing: solar power. The dependence of wind and solar power on weather and the hour of the day is such that when combined in similar capacities, together they roughly give just the human electricity usage profile. Now, while solar power is far far away from wind power, it is not as far as many would think. What Japan or Germany already have installed gives off as much as a nuclear block at top capacity*, and this withe the background of almost 100% growth in Germany last year.
(* but on average, one should count with an eighth-to-tenth of peak power – last year in Germany PV electricity added up to exactly 0.1% of the total consumption, the same as wind 12 years ago.)

Posted by: DoDo | Apr 16 2005 19:44 utc | 47

As for the nuclear lobby PR figure in Jérôme’s post, I am rather sceptical. On one hand, it seems to ignore the energy input of the mining and manufacture of fuel. On the other, estimating the energy input of construction gives room for endless tricksery: do they include transportation of workers and material? The energy used to manufacture prefabricated elements? The special tools needed their fabrication? (Neither of thee is insignificant.)
I can’t find it right now, but some guys about five years ago attempted to calculate the energy balance of nuclear power (and other power) backwards, from macroeconomic numbers and crude oil/coal/etc. amounts used up, and got a figure of IIRC 3.8 (that is energy produced over lifetime = 3.8 x energy expended to build and run and dispose of) for nuclear power.

Posted by: DoDo | Apr 16 2005 19:53 utc | 48

@DoDo – what is “Germany PV electricity”?
We should do a lot more of pumped storage in the form of water power in Germany but it is not a solution for wind power. The most effective wind power areas are in north germany. The mountains that allow for pumped storage are in the south. Energy transportation does cost quite a lot of energy so this does not make much sense plus the environmental folks in the mountains areas do not like pumped storage projects.

Posted by: b | Apr 16 2005 20:01 utc | 49

what is “Germany PV electricity”?
‘PV’ is ‘photovoltaic’ – that is, those shiny solar cells mostly made of Silicium. (As for Germany, that was in Germany, and I probably should have put a comma after it.)

Posted by: DoDo | Apr 17 2005 15:30 utc | 50

Some more grist for the mill from the UK’s Prof David Elliott, Energy and Environment Research Unit, Open University:
“Nuclear plants do not generate any greenhouse gas emissions directly (except incidentally from the release of carbon dioxide coolant gas), but in general it does seem that the complete nuclear power fuel cycle, assessed from the start (mining) to the end (decommissioning and waste storage) and including the energy need for constructing and running the plants, does involve significant energy use, and hence emissions from the plant producing that energy. These emissions are probably more than for most renewable energy technologies – since the latter do not need any fuel or waste processing, although of course, like nuclear plants, they do need energy for the manufacture of the hardware and its materials.
“However the data is complex and sometimes disputed. The most reliable full life cycle energy assessment I’ve seen is from the team at Hydro Quebec in Canada, as reported in Energy Policy 30 (2002) pp 1267-1278. They put the overall energy output to input ratio for nuclear (in the N American context) at up to 16, compared to up to 80 for wind, i.e. over their useful lifetimes, nuclear plants only generate up to 16 times more energy than is needed to build and run/fuel them, while wind turbines generate up to 80 times more energy than is needed for their construction (no fuel needed to run them) [emphasis added]. For comparison, the energy output to input ratio for coal plants is up to 11, gas/ CCGT 14. These are all top of the range figures. On this measure then, wind is best (by about 5 times) but nuclear is only a bit better than gas and coal.
“It ought to be possible to link these energy ratios to the comparative emissions from each source (more energy = more emissions), but it’s not a simple relationship. … The data I’ve found generally has nuclear and renewables coming out similar, sometimes with wind being a bit better than nuclear, sometimes a bit worse, but both always being much better than fossil fuels. The reasons for the differences mainly seem to be because of (1) different assumptions about the fuel mix used to provide the electricity to manufacture the nuclear fuel (2) different assumptions used about the efficiency of the technology used for nuclear fuel fabrication/enrichment (3) different assumptions about how long nuclear plants, with their embedded energy/carbon, can be used. (4) This gets even more complicated when comparing with other sources with different technology life times and load factors. Here are some examples of the data.
“Joseph V. Spadaro, Lucille Langois, and Bruce Hamilton (2000) Assessing the Difference: Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electricity Generation Chains (IAEA Bulletin 42 (2), 19-24) … contains a bar chart on page 21 which compares life-cycle emissions from different electricity gererators.
“Then of course … there is Nuclear Power: the Energy Balance [by] Jan-Willem Storm van Leeuwen and Philip Smith: ‘The use of nuclear power causes, at the end of the road and under the most favourable conditions, approximately one-third as much CO2-emission as gas-fired electricity production. The rich uranium ores required to achieve this reduction are, however, so limited that if the entire present world electricity demand were to be provided by nuclear power, these ores would be exhausted within three years. [emphasis added] Use of the remaining poorer ores in nuclear reactors would produce more CO2 emission than burning fossil fuels directly’.
“This introduces an important factor into the debate – uranium reserves. They are usually said to be 50-100 years or so at current use rates in thermal/burner reactors. But that’s ‘currently economic reserves’. If we had a massive nuclear programme, more reserves would no doubt emerge but of gradually lower and lower quality. That in turn would increase the amount of energy needed for fuel production, as lower and lower grades of uranium ore have to be used. The assessment of when the so called ‘point of futility’ is reached, when more energy is needed to mine and process the fuel than is produced by the reactor, depends on a variety of complex factors, including the energy efficiency of the fuel fabrication and enrichment processes, and how this energy is provided. Centrifuge methods are much less energy intensive than the diffusion processes so far mostly used, but it’s hard to see how improvements in fabrication efficiency could continually compensate when lower and lower quality ores have to be used. The high grade ores currently used contain around 2% of uranium (20,000 parts per million), the lower grade ores only 01.%(1,000ppm). Granite contains just 4ppm and seawater 0.0003 ppm. If we had unlimited cheap carbon-free energy, then maybe we could extract some of this, but then we wouldn’t need to! Mind you the nuclear lobby would say that is what nuclear offers – and so we could have a self sustaining nuclear system[,] but with lots of waste to deal with. The debate continues.”

Posted by: Dismal Science | Apr 19 2005 16:19 utc | 51