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January 24, 2005
Open Thread 05-10
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Move to euro hits US finances
Central banks are moving out of dollars and into euros, a shift that will make it harder for the US to finance its huge current account deficit, it emerged today.
According to a survey sponsored by Royal Bank of Scotland, almost 70% of the 65 central banks that provided details of changes in their reserves said they increased exposure to the single currency over the past two years. Meanwhile, 11% said they reduced exposure to the euro.
pour varier les plaisirs – to diversify our enjoyment –
please note that I will also be posting a “Daily wrap” almost every day over at Le Speakeasy
(I am not preparing it myself, so go thank the “compiler” yourself directly over there!)
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 24 2005 16:50 utc | 2
Colman – I saw this in the FT as well:
Dollar at the mercy of (mostly Asian) central banks
During the past few years the US has become dependent, not so much on millions of investors around the globe but on a few individuals in a few of the world’s central banks.
Who worries abotu the health of these people (and their close families)?
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 24 2005 16:56 utc | 3
Long term (years) my bet is that the Dollar will be significant lower. Shortterm (3 month) I agree with Marc Faber, the Dollar will rise (as it already is versus the Euro) in a countertrend rally.
Faber in his lastest comment:
In 2003 and 2004, all asset classes rose in value while the US dollar sold off. Would it be possible that in 2005, all asset classes perform poorly while the US dollar strengthens?? Only time will tell but for now, I would stay aside from equities, commodities (including gold and silver), and bonds and only hold the US dollar, which may have more of a rebound potential than is generally expected. As a trade, I would consider shorting the British Pound against the US dollar (see figure 1) since the British price level is now so much higher than the one in the US.
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And if you pass on the link and ask your friends to vote for her, so much the better!
Posted by: Electioneering | Jan 24 2005 19:09 utc | 6
When an individual, a group or an entire society live with a dark secret or are in denial about something important in their past, they cannot experience peace. It is simply impossible to live a ‘normal’ or peaceful life on a foundation of lies and secrecy. Denying the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in 1948, trying to not think about the consequences of long years of brutal occupation, and just wishing for it all to go away is no more than a fantasy.
In family therapy there is an accepted principle that unless serious injustices are addressed, there cannot be real peace. Families that protect dark secrets always pay a heavy price. I watched Israeli intellectuals on TV engage in genuine discussion trying to analyse and understand why things are so bad in Israel. They raised every possible reason for the situation other than the most obvious one – Israel’s history. It was excruciating to watch but also familiar. I have never seen a society so steeped in denial as Israeli society.
The entire spectrum of Israeli politics is in denial about Israel’s history and this is why I do not have much faith in the Israeli left. The handful that are not in denial like Dr Ilan Pappe who visited Australia last year, or Dr Uri Davis, exist outside this spectrum. Their research into the events of 1948 and the circumstances surrounding the birth of the state of Israel is not discussed on public television and is not in Israeli history books. The average Israeli does not even know who they are. Although published by reputable publishers like Cambridge University Press, Dr Pappe’s books have so far been refused publication in Hebrew. The reason offered is that they lack academic merit.
[more… please note, author was once an Israeli officer, since emigrated to Oz]
what a curious cultural synchrony there is between the US and Israel. by happy coincidence the irrepressible Uri Avnery (bless him) has recently commented on King George’s coronation:
The relationship between the United States and Israel is difficult to define. The USA has no official mandate over our country. It is not a normal alliance between two nations. Neither is it a relationship between a satellite and the master country.
Some people say, only half in jest, that the USA is an Israeli colony. And indeed, in many respects it looks like that. President Bush dances to Ariel Sharon’s tune. Both Houses of Congress are totally subservient to the Israeli right-wing – much more so than the Knesset. It has been said that if the pro-Israeli lobby were to sponsor a resolution on Capitol Hill calling for the abolition of the Ten Commandments, both Houses of Congress would adopt it overwhelmingly. Every year Congress confirms the payment of a massive tribute to Israel.
But others assert the reverse: that Israel is an American colony. And indeed, that is also true in many respects. It is unthinkable for the Israeli government to refuse a clear-cut request by the President of the United States. America forbids Israel to sell an expensive intelligence-gathering plane to China? Israel cancels the sale. America forbids a large-scale military action, as happened last week in Gaza? No action. America wants the Israeli economy to be managed according to American precepts? No problem: an American (circumcised, to be sure) has just been appointed as Governor of the Central Bank of Israel.
As a matter of fact, both versions are right: The USA is an Israeli colony and Israel is an American colony. The relationship between the two countries is a symbiosis, a term defined by the Oxford Dictionary as “an association of two organisms living attached to each other or one within the other” (from the Greek words for “living” and “together”.)
[more…]
The two countries seem — from my cynical and atheistic viewpoint — locked together in a spiral of self-righteousness, self-pity, incestuous arms dealing, economic self-evisceration, religious fantasy, and grandiosity. The Israelis seem to have bought the American Dream — to the point where they appropriate Palestinian agricultural water sources to fill suburban swimming pools, build multilane US-style freeways “for Israelis only” over and around Palestinian villages… One could imagine the new Ford Synus selling very well in Israel.
It’s as if the two countries are on the same kidney machine, the same chemistry swirling in both circulatory systems, as if they are voodoo dolls of each other, willynilly reinforcing each other’s errors. The difference I guess is that the Israeli press has more freedom to criticise its own government than the US press has to criticise Israel….
Anyway, a deliberately provocative bar snack for y’all…
Abuse of Trust – The POW scandal you haven’t yet heard about.
This nation has a special responsibility to prevent the torture of Americans held as prisoners of war. Our POWs have been brutally tortured at command direction in war after war, including the Korean, Vietnam, and most recently, the Gulf War; and it’s clear that we need to do whatever we can to break this pattern. Yet when 17 of our tortured Gulf War POWs and 37 of their family members said “enough” and joined together to bring a historic civil action to hold their Iraqi torturers liable, they were shocked—having won their case in federal court—to find the Department of Justice seeking to erase their judgment and “absolve” their torturers.
The Supreme Court has an opportunity to set aside this shocking breach of trust—itself apparently a somber footnote to the detainee abuse scandal. A case presenting the issues, Acree v. Republic of Iraq, was presented to the court by the POWs on a writ of certiorari last December, and the government response is due Feb. 18. Whether or not the court agrees to hear this case could well seal the fate of American GIs held as POWs in future wars….
In its new budget proposal, the Pentagon is finally confronting a reality that had been hidden since the morning of Sept. 11, 2001: There is not enough money to pay for the wars on terror and in Iraq, fund long-term defense strategy and the forces needed to carry it out, pay for military benefits, and buy future defense technology – all at the same time – especially with a growing federal deficit.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld faced this problem in 2001, but al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein saved his bacon. For three years, supplemental budgets have let him fund his technology cake and consume large forces at the same time. But, beneath the surface, the resource stress was growing.
The wars on terror and in Iraq were the first big problem. Although these are said to cost “only” $5 billion a month, and are being funded by supplemental appropriations, this is a “Wizard of Oz” view….
Found these on Mahablog.
Posted by: Fran | Jan 24 2005 20:53 utc | 8
23 at Guantanamo Attempted Suicide in 2003
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) – Twenty-three terror suspects tried to hang or strangle themselves at the U.S. military base in Guantanamo Bay during a mass protest in 2003, the military confirmed Monday.
The incidents came during the same year the camp suffered a rash of suicide attempts after Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller took command of the prison with a mandate to get more information from prisoners accused of links to al-Qaida or the ousted Afghan Taliban regime that sheltered it.
Between Aug. 18 and Aug. 26, the 23 detainees tried to hang or strangle themselves with pieces of clothing and other items in their cells, demonstrating “self-injurious behavior,” the U.S. Southern Command in Miami said in a statement. Ten detainees made a mass attempt on Aug. 22 alone.
U.S. Southern Command described it as “a coordinated effort to disrupt camp operations and challenge a new group of security guards from the just-completed unit rotation.”
…
In 2003, there were 350 “self-harm” incidents, including 120 “hanging gestures,” according to Lt. Col. Leon Sumpter, a spokesman for the detention mission.
Last year, there were 110 self-harm incidents, he said.
b
I think the way the Guardian use the US doublespeak “self harm” and “hanging gestures” they are just reporting to those of us that know.
Would they ever make this headlines?
No.
Doesn’t sell Newspapers. Your average Brit couldn’t give a proverbial.
Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jan 24 2005 22:23 utc | 10
Averny, conclusion:..The USA is an Israeli colony and Israel is an American colony.
DeA what you wrote is fine a description of the present state of affairrs. However, there are underlying power relations that cannot be ignored.
Israel is bought and paid for, tied up, ‘unfree’ (ach, it has no democracy, though it likes to falsely present its supputed ‘democracy’ as a calling card!) Israel is nothing but a lot of miserable people, wondering how they can be ‘safe’ and where their next buck is coming from, and whether Avram will be shot during his service. Prices rise, the bougainvillas die, it is all too horrible… And if poor, they agonise about who is going to pay for the children to eat at lunch, or where to obtain cough medecine, how to pay the rent…
Israelis have nothing precious, nothing good, nothing inspiring to hold onto – as the young say, they have “no future.” Immigration is a disaster; they don’t even know why they need immigrants, as these take up space and cost money, don’t speak the proper languages, can’t work in high tech (and where are the jobs, btw?).. Some of them are as bad as Palestinians, why not just throw garbage on their homes, or in their tiny gardens, who cares, they live in garbage anyway.
The US will tolerate all kinds of ‘abuses’ from Israel, as they are informed of everything and hold the upper hand. (They pay for it all.) Isaeli spying is routine and feeble – it will never lead to anything, is tolerated, hyped up, to provide the poor saps with some hubris and assumed power. After all, they would soon leave their submissive position if their illusions were not carefully fed. The US needs Israel to continue assuming a false dominant (or partnership) position. They might give up, otherwise.
The US cares not a whit what the enemies of Israel are, except insofar as they can use this excuse to inflame their local Christian Zionists, maintain Israel prisoner on their side, to take over, they hope, the ME and its energy. Israel will get some of the energy (that is the plan), but if in the long run that doesn’t work out – well, too bad.
Posted by: Blackie | Jan 24 2005 22:41 utc | 11
I am usually really wary of these suicide statistics. Have they been compared to suicide rates in other prisons, and, more to the point to the rate in the general population?
The usual rate is 20 or so per 100,000. So, if you have 1000 prisoners, that would make a small number statistically “normal” – we’re clearly above that. Still, if it’s one collective event, as seems to be described, it’s hard to put it in the same category.
(I don’t want to deny all the horrors ongoing at gitmo, just warning about taking numbers that are thrown around without more information)
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 24 2005 22:44 utc | 12
@CP
This was an Acossiate Press item, not a Guardian piece.
The Guardian like others puts up agency pieces on their websides over the day that never make the print edition.
I should flag such posts as agenciy pieces.
Thinking of it – what agencies are left and how many of them are not drinking the Kool-Aid?
Bush to Seek About $80 Billion for Military Operations (Reuters agency piece)
The Bush administration plans to announce as early as Tuesday that it will seek about $80 billion in new funding for military operations this year in Iraq and Afghanistan, pushing the total for both conflicts to almost $300 billion so far.
Administration and congressional officials said on Monday that the new request would come on top of the $25 billion in emergency spending already approved for this fiscal year.
That means funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan will total nearly $105 billion in fiscal 2005 alone — a record amount that shatters initial estimates of the cost.
Double that and you may reach the real numbers … (Not joking or so – the real numbers after depreciation etc. ARE double of that. Just like the casualties numbers.)
Does anybody else here find it abominable that we coddle terrorist’s when they’er on our side? Read on…
Mark Thatcher ‘directly involved in coup’ awaiting visa to enter the United Snakes
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jan 25 2005 3:26 utc | 15
If I were you guys I would keep a close look on Venezuela. I’m starting to believe that’s the next target, not Iran. I don’t know how the story is playing elsewhere, but this is what has happened in the last few days:
1. Colombia, which can be viewed as a rather spacious American military base, kidnapped a rebel leader inside Venezuela. The US openly supported the pirate action, mentioning – why am I not surprised? – the “war on terra”.
2. Hotheaded Chavez was quite enraged, demanding apologies, calling his ambassador back, the usual stuff. He also made an irate (and very funny) speech pointing his finger directly at Bush and proposing to bet one dollar that he would outlast him in power.
3. Brazil, which is trying to mediate the conflict, has just received a diplomatic message (would “order” be more appropriate?) from the US demanding more pressure on Chavez to “stop supporting terrorists”. In the meantime, a US senator has proposed the inclusion of Venezeula in the rogue state list.
4.Background: a few weeks ago, it was announced that Venezuela & China had signed an agreement for joint exploration of oilfields. That, I believe, would make it a bit more complicated to send a few marines later on to spread democracy in democratic but oil-rich Venezuela.
5. Background 2: As far as I know, Venezuela is a more important oil supplier to the US than Iraq.
I can hardly wait for the incident (military? terrorist?) that will convince the US population of the need to bring some order into their own backyard and preserve their freedoms. Militarily it wouldn’t be too complicated, it could be pulled out with a couple of guys on leave from Iraq. It’s either that or a coup within the next six months. If I were Chavez, I’d begin to take survival classes with good ole buddy Fidel Castro.
Posted by: pedro | Jan 25 2005 5:57 utc | 16
Are they going to construct an Embassy in Baghdad with gold? And wouldn’t that indicate that they are planning to stay/control Iraq? I know silly question. 😉
Bush to Seek $80B for Iraq, Afghan Wars
Aides said about three-fourths of the $80 billion was expected to be for the Army, which is bearing the brunt of the fighting in Iraq. It also was expected to include money for building a U.S. embassy in Baghdad, which has been estimated to cost $1.5 billion.
Posted by: Fran | Jan 25 2005 6:02 utc | 17
Fran, about staying/controlling Iraq, there’s also that little matter of the 14 permanent bases interlinked by sophisticated communications. I have no doubt about the intentions there, but I do wonder about the reaction of the American people when they find out they have been conned once again. Will they be outraged? Somehow I don’t think so. In fact, it’s dawning on me that this charade we’ve been living through is due to the fact that most Americans apparently don’t have moral qualms about being predatory, but they do about looking predatory.
Posted by: pedro | Jan 25 2005 7:00 utc | 18
@Fran et al.
The US will increase their troop level in Iraq.
Juan Cole reports “The US military is planning to keep 120,000 troops” (for at least 24 month) but he is wrong. The article he links to is talking about the army only. Not about marines, special forces, air force and navy. If the army keeps 120,000 there will be many more in total.
On Sunday their was piece in NYT where a General points out that “embedding” US “help” directly with Iraqi troops may well need additional staff. That is as loud an announcement as one may get.
Some weeks ago I said there will be 180,000 US troops in Iraq end of the year. That number looks to be topped by now.
I am outraged by this: Palestinians Fear East Jerusalem Land Grab
The Israeli government secretly approved a measure last summer that says it can seize land in East Jerusalem owned by Palestinians who live elsewhere, the government and a lawyer for the Palestinians said Monday.
The lawyer said the decision could affect hundreds of Palestinian property owners and thousands of acres of land.
“This is state theft, pure and simple,” said Hanna Nasser, the mayor of neighboring Bethlehem, home to many of the Palestinians who could lose land they own in Jerusalem. The mayor linked the Israeli decision to the West Bank separation barrier that Israel is building in the same area. “When Israel started building this wall, they stopped letting people use this land,” he said.
Outraged is not enough – US=Torture State: A.C.L.U. Presents Accusations of Serious Abuse of Iraqi Civilians
In one case, a detainee said that while at Adhamiya Palace, his nose was pinched while water was poured down his throat, a wooden stick was inserted forcefully into his anus and electric shock was applied to his genitals. Some of the allegations were directed against Iraqi policemen. One contractor who said he was assigned to screen detainees brought to Abu Ghraib said that many who had come from Adhamiya arrived with serious injuries, including one boy with a bleeding rectum. He said the boy had told him that an Iraqi policeman had sodomized him with a soda bottle and that American soldiers were present.
These are new cases…
European Kossacks poll.
Please take a minute to participate and recommend.
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 25 2005 8:36 utc | 22
NYT says US at War with Iran: Reports on Pentagon’s New Spy Units Set Off Questions in Congress
In general, Democrats and Republicans expressed support for the idea of assigning intelligence officers from the D.I.A. to work alongside Special Operations forces in wartime situations like the ones in Iran and Afghanistan.
And remember – the 80b$ for Irad is in addition to the 415b$ deficit – so the real deficit is pretty much 500 billion dollars –
$500,000,000,000.00
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 25 2005 8:39 utc | 24
@Jérôme
not quite the right number. The 415b$ do not include the money that the government borrows from the social security trust fund (some 200$b.)Also missing the 25b$ that already have been put to the Iraq war this financial year.
In total, the US 2005 deficit will be near 700b$.
Another case:Army Closed Many Abuse Cases Early
Another case involved a 73-year-old Iraqi woman who was captured by members of the Delta Force special unit and alleged that she was robbed of money and jewels before being confined for days without food or water — all in an effort to force her to disclose the location of her husband and son. Delta Force’s Task Force 20 was assigned to capture senior Iraqi officials.
She said she was also stripped and humiliated by a man who “straddled her . . . and attempted to ride her like a horse” before hitting her with a stick and placing it in her anus. The case, which attracted the attention of senior Iraqi officials and led to an inquiry by an unnamed member of the White House staff, was closed without a conclusion.
Bush tried to jack off over the case file but couldn´t make it?
Pedro: Chavez should also have a chat with some Iraqi guerrillas. This would be useful if he’s overthrown; he’d begin a resistance with already 2/3 of the people behind him.
B: That kind of land grab isn’t really new there, alas. And who’s gonna blame them? Surely not the US; after all, they’re guilty of the biggest land grabs of the last 2 centuries.
Posted by: CluelessJoe | Jan 25 2005 9:25 utc | 27
b – indeed! I did not take that into consideration. This is beginning to sound like a nice pile of money.
I have read that it also means that with a Pentagon budget of 400b$ or so (not including the war), US taxpayers are not paying for their military themselves at all…
@pedro – re Venezuela
Not sure what to think. The US administration clearly hates Chavez, in a visceral, almost irrational way (just like Castro, but Chavez additionally has the legitimacy of having been elected more than once) but I am not so sure oil plays such a big role.
– foreign investors have access to Venezuelan oil (Chevron and Total are the biggest investors in the new heavy crude developments in the south);
– Venezuela is clearly, undoubtedly in the sphere of influence of the US. In case of conflict with the US, there is no way China or anyone else would get a drop of Venezuelan oil.
Maybe smaller oil players are getting squeezed out – and there would ceertianly be Texans amongst them, so I don’t know about that aspect…
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 25 2005 9:33 utc | 28
Nobody around today?
Anyway, the new Daily Wrap, is up, courtesy of SusanG.
Posted by: Jérôme | Jan 25 2005 13:32 utc | 29
on the budget smoke and mirrors
The U.S. budget deficit will reach $368 billion this year before any war costs are added in, the Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the worse-than-expected numbers.
The previous CBO forecast called for a $348 billion shortfall for the 2005 fiscal year that began on Oct. 1.
Due to a technical quirk, the latest number does not include billions of dollars needed to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and analysts said these must be added in to get a true picture of the red ink.
The previous forecast assumed $115 billion of war costs.
“As a result of this technicality, we think it would be prudent to add roughly $100 billion to the CBO’s fiscal year 2005 budget deficit estimate,” Lehman Brothers said in a research note.
The White House is shortly expected to ask for about $80 billion to pay for war costs.
The CBO numbers also showed an improved outlook for the deficit over the next 10 years, the source said. The agency forecast a cumulative shortfall of $855 billion from 2006 to 2015. That is far better than the agency’s last 10-year forecast that totaled $2.3 trillion between 2005 and 2014.
Social Security expects some 200b$ income in excess of expenditures. These will be converted to special IOU papers and the money will be spend in the general budget.
This money is not counted as deficit in the CBO data.
BTW: where did the CBO find those forcasted (2,300-855=) 1,455b$ in less deficit? Someone left his bag?
@FlashHarry
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/ -> 403 Forbidden
How can I access that site?
@B:
I can just click on the link I posted. It’s a free site. I’ve never had a problem linking to it, or accessing it. Don’t know about Europeans though.
I’m weak and flaky on most of this internet stuff.
The article’s pretty good–It’s about Kerry.
If you find you still can’t get there, check it out at All Spin Zone, or I can send you an EMail attachment.
This would be a good one to talk about.
Posted by: FlashHarry | Jan 25 2005 16:28 utc | 33
B:
I can read the smirkingchimp, so I would (being in Europe and all) guess that the problem either was temporary or lies with your internet provider.
Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Jan 25 2005 16:45 utc | 34
Confetti:
On new Year’s Eve the main (?) TV channel in Russia (forgotten its name…), traditionally regales its viewers with a shower of falling, fluttering, fascinating, gorgeous, money.
This year, for the first time, they used Euros instead of dollars.
Pedro, yes, I still maintain the US will not attack Iran.
Torture in Iraq Still Routine, Report Says Wash. Post, 25 Jan. 2005.
Google, No. 2.
Posted by: Blackie | Jan 25 2005 18:22 utc | 35
Confetti:
On new Year’s Eve the main (?) TV channel in Russia (forgotten its name…), traditionally regales its viewers with a shower of falling, fluttering, fascinating, gorgeous, money.
This year, for the first time, they used Euros instead of dollars.
Pedro, yes, I still maintain the US will not attack Iran.
Torture in Iraq Still Routine, Report Says Wash. Post, 25 Jan. 2005.
Google, No. 2.
Posted by: Blackie | Jan 25 2005 18:31 utc | 36
@Flash-H
Thanks for the link. Podvin’s rant is well presented and funny but he kind of missed the point. It is an obvious point, touched on by a couple of the commenters; and that is that Kerry was a setup from the beginning. He had no intention of winning.
This was apparent when Dean was dumped in favor of Kerry by “the numbers” Yeah those numbers, the same kind of numbers that worked for Bush in Ohio and several other states in November. It became much more apparent as Kerry dabbled thru most of his campaign being nice to his opponent, and only in the last few days, when he and his handlers were sure it was in the bag for Bush, did he rise up a bit, raise his gentlemanly voice and get somewhat feisty.
And at the end – omigod what an end – it became certain that Kerry was in on the game when he raised no objections to the openly criminal handling of the vote numbers. Well he’ll do it later, said some. Nope, that was it.
John Kerry is every bit as guilty as Karl Rove for rigging the election – the evidence is blaring and everywhere. I give Podvin very low marks for ignoring this, for blaming it all on incompetence. I’ve heard that one before and it doesn’t wash.
Posted by: rapt | Jan 25 2005 18:34 utc | 37
Hey look, a Democrat with a spine!
Might it only be contagious….
Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 25 2005 21:25 utc | 38
Losing hearts and minds.
How to lose a war through
Collective punishment
Stupid, vindictive and counter productive.
Posted by: Ouch | Jan 25 2005 22:22 utc | 39
Here’s another name for those “private accounts,” also known as “personal accounts”: if we just call them “broker’s accounts,” we won’t forget who stands to benefit from this little reform.
Posted by: alabama | Jan 26 2005 2:52 utc | 40
Divided We Fall. Powerful.
“What’s happening here is simple. A pickpocket creates a diversion so he can steal your money while you’re looking elsewhere. Well, guess what? The last four years have been one diversion after another. And our collective pockets have been picked clean while most of us were looking elsewhere.
Through skillful, and to all indications criminal exploitation of the ignorance, religious bigotry, and fear-borne panic of fully half of our countrymen, no less than $750 billion has disappeared from our public treasury with no accountability forthcoming. Yet they revel.” Dom Stasi
Posted by: beq | Jan 26 2005 13:31 utc | 42