Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 11, 2004
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Kerik Withdraws His Name for Top DHS Job

Bernard Kerik, New York City’s former top cop, withdrew his name from consideration to be President Bush’s homeland security secretary, a victim of the embarrassing “nanny problem” that has killed the nominations of other prominent officials.

Too bad. This man would have been a complete embaressment. Kicked out of Saudi Arabi in the 80`s, an open arrest warrent, 6 million in options from Taser, kicked out of his job as Iraqi Interior Minister after just three month, …
A lot of fun we are going to miss.

Posted by: b | Dec 11 2004 11:57 utc | 1

b – don’t worry, they WILL come back with worse! (Richard Perle anyone?)

Posted by: Jérôme | Dec 11 2004 12:22 utc | 2

G. Gordon Kojak, we’re gonna miss all the fun we coulda had with you in the nomination hearings!

Posted by: semper fubar | Dec 11 2004 15:48 utc | 3

BTW – Kerik was supported by Guliani. With Kerik gone, Guliani might have problems trying for the 2008 presidential ticket.

Posted by: b | Dec 11 2004 16:00 utc | 4

Our problem is bigger than ever-
From Reuters:
Elaborating on the physical exam, White House spokesman Claire Buchan said, “They determined that he is in superior health overall for a man his age.”
The nearly 6-foot (3-meter) Bush was found to be extremely fit in his last physical in August 2003.

Posted by: biklett | Dec 11 2004 19:30 utc | 5

Danforth is on crack. He’s also lobyying the UN, along with the EU, to have a special session about Shoah for the 60th of the Soviet “liberation” of Auschwitz. I’m amazed the Allies (notably UK and US) are so eager to cast light on their own failure to stop this by openly refusing to send a bombing squad there, because it was so much more strategically and humanely important to bomb German civilians in Dresden, rather than to stop the Holocaust.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 12 2004 0:59 utc | 7

The American Association of Sniffers of Underwear (ASSoU) wants to makes adultery punishable by a denial of marriage benefits.
This is not a joke, even though it is a joke.

Posted by: fauxreal | Dec 12 2004 1:01 utc | 8

@Faux, amazing link!! Yes, kids think Sparta!! Somehow these guys didn’t get the message that you can only outlaw groups straight males hysterically fear, Women & Homosexuals, not practices straight males engage in daily.
I’ve heard “My Joey” Lieberman bandied about for job of God of Domestic Repression, or was he just lobbying for the job. Giving it to a Jew, albeit a suitably far right-winger, might be a bit problematical tho.

Posted by: jj | Dec 12 2004 1:14 utc | 9

@JJ:
If old Libo gets it, maybe he’ll get boils all over, like the original one.
@Faux:
No work gets done next term, for sure. Might be a good thing.

Posted by: FlashHarry | Dec 12 2004 2:29 utc | 10

to clarify, that site is a satirical one. But it’s so close to the truth, maybe it’s really one of those end of the year predictions.
I know such a idea would never pass, however, because too many members of congress like to make sure they get their pork into every crevice of the body politic.

Posted by: fauxreal | Dec 12 2004 3:25 utc | 11

Shit, Faux…….nothinggggggsssss toooo far out these days.
Sat. night post:
If anyone can still appreciate individual acts of Extraordinary Courage, or enjoys sailing, there’s an amazing Sail underway right now by a young woman who’s the embodiment of the great British nautical tradition. She was born to sail, as Jane Goodall was born to be w/chimps or Picasso to paint. She skipped lunch as a young child to save money to buy her first sailboat.
Her name is Ellen MacArthur. She’s all of 28 & on her 2nd Race Alone Around the globe. Her first was @24 in a monohull race called the Vendee Globe. She finished in 2nd place. When she landed in France @race’s end, it was bedlam. (One guy in that race had to sew his tongue back on – to give you a perspective on the magnitude of the challenge involved.)
Now she’s trying to break the World Record for Solo Circumnavigation of the Globe in a multi-hull sailboat. She’s sailing a trimaran. It’s ~72days. If you have a cable or DSL hookup, you can watch on Video clips & via Webcam. For those w/out, still great photos via Satellite on the trip site. Link
She started in Falmouth England, rounded Europe & is heading into the Southern Ocean bet. Africa & Brazil. We can follow from the comfort of our homes -gulp!!- as all alone she takes on the storms & icebergs that plague that part of the Oceans. (Site in Eng. & French.)

Posted by: jj | Dec 12 2004 6:59 utc | 12

PHILADELPHIA — A 10-year-old girl was placed in handcuffs and taken to a police station because she took a pair of scissors to school.
School district officials said the fourth-grader did not threaten anyone with the 8-inch shears, but said she violated a rule that deemed scissors to be potential weapons.

Link

Posted by: b | Dec 12 2004 11:30 utc | 13

Kerik’s resignation is another example of lightning striking a tree in the forrest. Does anyone believe
the official story? It’s true that this sort of thing
has caused problems in the past, but I can’t help wondering who helped Kerik “find” the incriminating document. How was he convinced to go quietly so quickly? Or am I just so far gone on conspiracies that I can’t take anything that comes out of this administration at face value?

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Dec 12 2004 12:22 utc | 14

Miscellaneous:
Is the DNC digging its own grave – this is bizzare!
Bad bloggers and the State-level DNC – by Jerome Armstrong
More bizzare – is the US now forcing the Taliban to accept amnesty by pointing guns at them?
U.S. opens winter offensive in Afghanistan – 18,000-troop push aims to convince Taliban to accept amnesty
And an interessting article about Berlin – not bizzare, at least I think so.
U.S. Expatriate Hipsters Plug Into the Buzz of Berlin –
Artists and writers say they’re finding creative enrichment that has withered back home.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 12 2004 15:49 utc | 15

Has anyone else received this mail. What to do about it. Is it something like those Nigerian scams or is it to be taken serious. I have received it now twice.

May Allah the most merciful and compassionate be with you. My name is Mohammed, You can find out all about me, my profile, origin etc from the BBC website below stating all about me. All the happenings at Iraq has made me a public figure without privacy. please browse through the site below to acquire more details about me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/news/asylumday/case3.shtml
From the site above, you will note that this is not scam . This is real. I have some funds in a financial institute in Europe and I need your help to assist my son to retrieve it. The doctor has already told me that I have less days and as you receive this mail, it is possible that I am
dead. All that matters to me now is that my only son Mohammed junior gets to inherit my elongings. Allah the most compassionate and merciful will guide you, please get to me so that we could discuss about the percentage and clear your mind, as you might initially want to be a doubting thomas to this venture which is intented with good. Please note that I can not use my family because I am very sure that Iraq rebellions are monitoring them. I also can not go to Europe because I do not have travelling papers as an asylum seeker and my ill health. If you are interested in assisting him, please send your contact information to my son(mohammedjunioraljafaer@yahoo.co.uk) for
further discussions and the transfer of necessary
documentations.
thanks
mohammed al-jafaer.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 12 2004 15:58 utc | 16

Fran it’s a scam………….
Media in 2012

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 12 2004 16:57 utc | 17

Fran, I get a variant of that letter every two weeks or so. Someone must have conned me somewhere along the way, and left my name on a list of easy marks….

Posted by: alabama | Dec 12 2004 17:03 utc | 18

Quicker link re above
http://letitblog.com/epic

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 12 2004 17:13 utc | 19

CP and Alabama, thanks! This was my hunch too! But with all those tragedies happening one never knows. Shame that there always people misusing other people’s pain to enrichen themselves.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 12 2004 17:28 utc | 20

Is Condi already leaving her fingerprints? My first reaction was to laugh. In psychology this is called projection. However I think the consequences might not be much to laugh about.
Russia Policy Under Review – The U.S., faced with Putin’s increasingly undemocratic policies and anti-Western moves in the region, may become more assertive.

For the past four years, the administration muted its criticism of Russia’s approach to democratic values as Washington tried to build a “strategic partnership” with Moscow to fight terrorism and weapons proliferation.
But the Bush team’s approach has faced growing doubts, including from some within the administration.
Now in his second term, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has reduced press freedom and cracked down on political opponents at home while working against pro-Western forces in neighboring countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
Questions about U.S. policy have gained a new urgency in the past three weeks, as the United States and Russia have sparred over the presidential election in Ukraine. Washington and the European Union rejected the results as rigged, and after public protests, the matter went to the country’s Supreme Court, which overturned the victory of the candidate favored by Moscow.
Now in his second term, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has reduced press freedom and cracked down on political opponents at home while working against pro-Western forces in neighboring countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
,,,
Last week, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell sharpened his rhetoric, expressing concern about “developments in Russia … affecting freedom of the press and the rule of law.”

But several officials in Bush’s inner circle argue that the U.S. should speak forcefully for democratic values in Russia and the surrounding region.
In recent months, Putin has drawn criticism for instituting sweeping measures consolidating his power, such as curtailing regional elections, restricting press freedoms and limiting individual rights. U.S. officials are also concerned that Putin is covertly reasserting Russia’s influence over former Soviet republics.

An administration official said one major issue that would be considered in the policy review was whether Moscow, frustrated by what it sees as U.S. meddling in its backyard, was itself edging toward a harsher approach toward Washington. He noted that in several appearances over the last few days, Putin, apparently stung by the failure of his ally in Ukraine, had sharply criticized the United States.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 12 2004 17:50 utc | 21

Can you believe this?
Retired Army colonel, 70, sent to Afghanistan

In fact, he was so sure it was an error that he ignored the postcards and telephone messages asking if he would be willing to volunteer for active duty to “backfill” somewhere on the East Coast, Europe or Hawaii. That would be OK, he thought. It would release active duty oral surgeons from those areas to go to combat zones in Iraq or Afghanistan.
But then the orders came for him to go to Afghanistan.

He is one of about 100 over the age of 60 known to be serving. The Department of Defense couldn’t provide exact figures.
Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty, an Army spokesman, said the service has taken back some 350 soldiers who had already retired from the military. But some of those could have done 20 years of duty and still be only in their late 30s. He did not know how many of the returning retirees are 60 or older.
The reason, he said, is clear: “It’s the continuing demand in the service.”
The Navy has 36 medical personnel and 16 chaplains who are over 60.
There is one Marine between 60 and 65 currently serving.
The Air Force has 12 chaplains over 60 and 32 medical personnel between 60 and 65.
“The rules say it’s at 60 years of age when people retire,” said Dov Schwartz, an Army spokesman. The Army will issue waivers allowing people who are older to serve if they have needed skills. Returning, though, is “totally voluntary,” Schwartz said.

This is the last one for today, it seems there is endless new stuff on the net and everyone seems to be out anyway.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 12 2004 18:34 utc | 22

fran
thanks for the heads-up

Posted by: slothrop | Dec 12 2004 19:54 utc | 23

Fran, thanks for the links. Even Jews from Israel are moving to Germany……What goes around…
Looking for Investments – buy rental property in East Berlin & advertise in any Ca. newspaper….(not entirely joking)
I found this art. most helpful of all I read this am in understanding Boomerang Effect of Psychotic Fascist policies of USgov/NeoCons: New Persian Empire: Iran Strengthens Its Hand Amid War On Terror.
Slowly but Surely rest of world groping their way toward forging alliances against xUS – EU, Iran, China, Brazil, Venezuela.
Just as Capital Overplayed it’s hand & Destroyed America Economically by shipping all our factories to China etc. so the elite could steal all the money that should be paid in wages; Militarists in pursuit of same megabucks -and hoping to put a brake on the ChinaMonster they created by giving them all our technology thru stranglehold on Chinese energy supplies – overplayed their hand, trying nostalgically for One Last Time, a Classic Imperial Adventure in ME in the Age of Satellite Communications!!!
Textbook stuff. Charlie Chaplin where art thou? Tragedy & Farce while the young flee to Germany for Freedom. Curious how Europe learned the lessons of WWII but US which emerged dominant has yet to!!

Posted by: jj | Dec 12 2004 21:29 utc | 24

jj, that Iranian article is the money shot in this Iraqi fiasco

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 12 2004 22:18 utc | 25

Just watching BBC (C = censored thesedays) re the Gaza attack.
Qui Bono?

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 12 2004 22:22 utc | 26

@jj interesting, the renaissance of Jewish life and culture in Germany — the community in Berlin is thriving. not to say that there are no problems, no fears, no xenophobia or antisemitism left in Germany. of course there are “dead enders” — and louts eager to join any group that gives them an excuse to hate somebody — Turks, Jews, whoever. but there are stirrings of a revival of Jewish life in Germany and Eastern Europe, and it seems to me a far more attractive proposition to persons whose sensibility is cosmopolitan and progressive and, enfin, European. the whole State of Israel thing originally was, and since has become even more, so C19… imho. the gated community writ large. I guess I just don’t believe in the Ethnic Nation State, and perhaps this is because as an Anglo I have never been persecuted for my race or felt the need for an ethnic haven — “my people” have tried to turn the whole goddamn world into an Anglo Ethnic Nation State with everyone else as Enclosed Aboriginals. so I’m conscious that my cynical disbelief in ethnic nation-statery may just be a form of race privilege.
nevertheless I have this basic idea — whether thinking in terms of the neighbourhood or the nation or the relations between nations — that safety is not found behind walls and iron bars, but in the establishment of a civil, law-abiding community of “reasonably-equals”. mutual tolerance — I don’t even ask for respect and certainly not for fondness, just for even handedness and a willingness to refrain from brute force — seems a better guarantor of security than razor wire, broken glass and machine gun emplacements…

Posted by: DeAnander | Dec 13 2004 0:43 utc | 27

Gary Webb is dead. He apparently committed suicide after the break up of his marriage and subsequent financial hardship.
In 1996, Webb wrote a series of stories entitled Dark Alliances. The series reported how a US-backed terrorist army, the Nicaraguan Contras, had financed their activities by selling crack cocaine in the ghettos of Los Angeles to the city’s biggest crack dealer. The series documented direct contact between drug traffickers bringing drugs into Los Angeles and two Nicaraguan CIA agents who were administering the Contras in Central America. Moreover, it revealed how elements of the US government knew about this drug ring’s activities at the time and did little, if anything, to stop it. The evidence included sworn testimony from one of the drug traffickers – a government informant – that a CIA agent specifically instructed them to raise money for the Contras in California.
Webb is quoted in the article because he said he was a successful reporter until he broke this story, but after this story, his credibility was attacked, the mainstream media failed to cover the real story (Webb says it was even worse than he first learned.) The site for this story notes:
We believe…journalists are selected on the basis that they areunlikely even to attempt to report “dangerous ideas” of this kind – troublemakers are quickly identified and filtered out as ‘committed’, ‘biased’ and ’emotionally involved’. By contrast, successful journalists, with rare exceptions, are happy to remain within the ‘acceptable’ parameters of debate, echoing government opinions without challenge, presuming the essential benevolence of state-corporate power, focusing on non-threatening problems, interpreting crimes as mistakes, and so on.
His work and the suppression of what his investigations revealed were featured in the recent book Into the Buzzsaw, which includes 18 other stories of journalists smeared as conspiracy freaks for telling the truth.
Gary Webb interview
Rest in Peace

Posted by: fauxreal | Dec 13 2004 2:27 utc | 28

I’ve followed Jerome’s bad example, (bad Jerome, bad, bad) and posted my first diary entry at DKos on Webb’s death in a slightly different format.

Posted by: fauxreal | Dec 13 2004 3:01 utc | 29

Positive violence – Holy Smoke

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 13 2004 10:36 utc | 30

I say we drop all pretenses of having democratic elections, and instead opt for a coin toss at the 50-yard line in the Washington Grizzly Stadium . All the party leaders can huddle around, and we’ll get a non-partisan celebrity coin-flipper to make the toss. I’ll call J.Lo’s agent.
20 Amazing Facts About
Voting in the USA
http://nightweed.com/usavotefacts.html
1. 80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diebold
2. There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0916-04.htm
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html
3. The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/private_company.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html
4. The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was “committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1647886
5. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.
http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2004/03/03_200.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/031004Fitrakis/031004fitrakis.html
6. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.
http://www.blackboxvoting.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=26
http://www.hillnews.com/news/012903/hagel.aspx
http://www.onlisareinsradar.com/archives/000896.php
7. Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush’s vice-presidential candidates.
http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_28/b3689130.htm
http://theindependent.com/stories/052700/new_hagel27.html
8. ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.
http://www.essvote.com/HTML/about/about.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html
9. Diebold’s new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.itworld.com/Tech/2987/041020evotestates/pfindex.html
10. Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.diebold.com/solutions/default.htm
11. Diebold is based in Ohio.
http://www.diebold.com/aboutus/ataglance/default.htm
12. Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as senior managers and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted 50% of the votes in 30 states.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,61640,00.html
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/301469.shtml
13. Jeff Dean, Diebold’s Senior Vice-President and senior programmer on Diebold’s central compiler code, was convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree.
http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf
14. Diebold Senior Vice-President Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a “high degree of sophistication” to evade detection over a period of 2 years.
http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf
15. None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.
http://www.globalexchange.org/update/press/2638.html
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/10/26/loc_elexoh.html
16. California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold’s claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it! (See the movie here.)
http://wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,63298,00.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4874190
17. 30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml
18. All — not some — but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65757,00.html
http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/ThreeResearchStudiesBushIsOut.htm
http://www.rise4news.net/extravotes.html
http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=950
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm
19. The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President’s brother.
http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/news/local/7628725.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10544-2004Oct29.html
20. Serious voting anomalies in Florida — again always favoring Bush — have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.
http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/ThreeResearchStudiesBushIsOut.htm
http://www.computerworld.com/governmenttopics/government/policy/story/0,10801,97614,00.html
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/tens_of_thousands.html
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2004/110904.html

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Dec 13 2004 14:18 utc | 31

Now his double affair laid bare – Kerik cheated on wife with Judith Regan and correction officer

Posted by: b | Dec 13 2004 17:47 utc | 32

pinochet after nearly thirty years tasting a little bit of justice

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 13 2004 20:05 utc | 33

Anyone have any thghts. on whether we can get a twofer w/Kerik affair, getting rid of his Patron at the same time? Keep smearing that shit, boys.
Uncle $cam, one error that I know of in the above post. California DID NOT Ban DieBold, Unfortunately. It only banned it’s use in counties DieBold had installed an uncertified software patch (& I think lied to the state about it). In one of the most Dem. counties in the state, Alameda (Including Berkeley) unhappily it’s in use – so they can skim Dem. votes.
W/all the justifiable focus on the National Coup d’état, the rigging of elections at the state level is being overlooked. This has allowed the Mobsters not only to Steal the Senate, but to do endruns around State Legislatures. Should the Legis., by some happy accident, be some bold as to actually pass legislation that benefits citizens, this can be thrown out in “referendums” using this rigged equipment. Working Californians finally had medical care til they pulled this.

Posted by: jj | Dec 13 2004 21:00 utc | 34

Chimp(s)

Posted by: b | Dec 13 2004 21:49 utc | 35

SPANK THAT MONKEY!!

Posted by: Joseph Duveen, Baron Millbank | Dec 14 2004 3:24 utc | 36

I am relieved to be posting something that is (I hope) neither terribly provocative, nor (I hope) divisive, nor that may reveal any inanity, thoughtless bias, or lack of humanity on my part – in other words, other peoples’ thoughts and opinions, with which I claim neither to agree nor disagree, but merely find very interesting. This is a lengthy exerpt and I have no web address to provide:
Debating the Dollar
December 10, 2004
Morgan Stanley Global Economics Team
A weakening dollar is now center stage in world financial markets. But dollar depreciation is not the endgame of global rebalancing. It is the means toward the end — a long overdue realignment in the mix of global saving and consumption. Morgan Stanley’s Global Economics team has been actively debating the currency issue and its implications for the world economy. Below are excerpts from a recent roundtable discussion we conducted on the dollar.
Stephen Roach: A $40 trillion world economy is woefully out of balance. This shows up in many forms, but the most glaring sign is an unprecedented disparity between the world’s current account deficits (America) and surpluses (mainly Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe). The key to a successful global rebalancing hinges critically on tempering the risks of the world’s most serious excesses. For me, that speaks of a shift in the world’s relative price structure — namely, currencies — in order to re- establish a more sustainable equilibrium. That’s where the dollar comes into play. But currency adjustments can’t do it alone. A weaker dollar could also be key in forcing the interest rate adjustments that address the asset-driven excesses of the American consumer — quite possibly the biggest risk factor in today’s US and global economy. If the depreciation of the dollar implies tough adjustments elsewhere in the world — like forcing export-led Asian and European economies to stimulate domestic demand — then that’s not such a bad thing either. Global rebalancing is a shared responsibility.
Stephen Li Jen: I think everyone is too sanguine about this de facto competitive devaluation by the US. To me, this is very serious, and a very dangerous policy pursued by the US. I’ve never heard any central bank telling the world not to buy their assets. But this was essentially what Alan Greenspan said in his Frankfurt speech on November 19. We are now talking about a gradual sell-off in US Treasuries that would take yields on 10-year notes to 5.0%. But if the world really were convinced by Greenspan, why would bond yields stop at 5%? Why should US equities be spared?
Richard Berner: I certainly agree with Stephen Li Jen that it can be a dangerous and risky game for Fed officials even implicitly to talk down the dollar. Chairman Greenspan, himself, is often guilty of believing that he can wave his magic wand to manipulate markets to produce the desired result. History shows that even he is sometimes humbled by the collective wisdom of millions of investors.
I believe that Fed officials would like to promote — if they can pull it off — a shift in the mix of financial conditions that will facilitate rebalancing. That shift entails higher US rates, an associated compression of equity multiples, a tightening of domestic borrowing costs, and a weaker dollar. Officials must have decided that the risks of the current mix of financial conditions, with all of its potential consequences for growing imbalances and prospective abrupt asset price adjustments, were greater than those entailed in a strategy aimed at letting the air out of the dollar in a more orderly way.
By the way, while I agree that having a central banker talk down his/her own currency can be dangerous, I think we’d all agree that it is broadly appropriate — nay, essential — for central bankers to signal their policy intentions. So Greenspan’s related comment that market participants should expect rising interest rates is certainly an integral part of today’s Fedspeak.
Joachim Fels: On Dick’s last point, I have the sneaking suspicion that the Fed’s policy of talking the dollar down is part of their game plan to create higher inflation in the US. Core inflation (as measured by the personal consumption deflator) at 1.5% simply doesn’t give you enough of a safety margin against deflation if and when the next recession hits. And, in highly indebted economies such as the US, a little more inflation helps to grease the wheels. That’s why I think that stagflation will be the name of the game in America in the next few years.
Jen: The possibility of stagflation is a perfect example of what I mean by stressing the potential pain of a competitive dollar depreciation. Yet everyone is still insisting “it won’t hurt.” I think they are missing the point. The whole purpose of the competitive devaluation of the US dollar is that it would hurt the rest of the world. It is about taking jobs and output from the rest of the world, and leaving the rest of the world to find other ways to come up with alternative sources of demand.
The US is effectively exporting bubbles to the rest of the world by forcing other nations to run a low-interest rate, strong exchange rate policy. Look at Japan in the late 1980s: they were forced to cut their discount rate in half between the Plaza and Louvre accords that demarcated the dollar’s descent in the latter half of the 1980s. What happened in Japan in the late-1980s? Japan was left to deal with the bubble and its aftershocks for the ensuing 14 years.
Roach: Stephen, your response is a classic example of what I call the global blame game — the notion that it’s unfair for America to foist its problems on to the rest of the world. While I have some sympathy for this argument, I would also stress that Asians and Europeans have been asking for trouble on this score for a long time. Unable or unwilling to stimulate sustained growth in their own internal demand, they have hooked their economies to the fortunes of the hyper-extended American consumer. The idea that such a “free-rider approach” is a good way to run the world – – Americans consume Asian goods and Asians gobble up American bonds — was dangerous from the start. It has led to huge dollar overweights in official reserve positions of all major non-US central banks — overweights that now look fiscally reckless to America’s creditors in the event of a sustained further drop in the dollar.
I am not as worried as you that this will be a competitive devaluation that will take jobs and output from the rest of the world. America’s manufacturing base has shrunk so much in the past 20 years that such a dramatic turnaround is problematic at best. What I am most worried about is that the dollar’s weakness will trigger a real interest rate response that will finally bring the American consumer to his or her knees. With the rest of the world lacking in consumerism, this raises the distinct possibility that we are headed for a protracted period of subpar global growth. Rather than bemoan America’s willingness to take a long overdue adjustment — one that the wise men of Europe and Asia have long sensed was appropriate — why can’t the rest of the world respond with a growth agenda of its own?
Jen: My point is not so much about blaming the US for imposing pain on the rest of the world. It is a fact that there will be pain — that’s not a judgment call. That’s how the US current account deficit can be compressed. That’s how the US can generate (some) inflationary pressures that prompt Fed tightening. Up to this point, dollar depreciation is a zero-sum proposition! That is now about to change.
If it didn’t “hurt” anyone, there wouldn’t be any change in the US inflation or demand outlook, and the Fed would be no more justified in hiking rates than if the dollar did not weaken. In other words, a weaker dollar being the trigger for a more hawkish Fed must involve pain in the rest of the world, which is a point that the rest of the world does not understand. The talk in Euroland and Japan is, “how much more currency strength can we tolerate before we get hurt.” That misses the point.
As you yourself have argued, Steve, it is the next step — when the rest of the world and the US take proper action — that determines if we can move on to a state that is more sustainable in the long run. Going from A to B will not be a smooth path, because equities and bonds are being talked down in the process: Greenspan cannot talk down the dollar without talking down other dollar-based assets as well. Bottom line: I don’t disagree with you. I just think that the world doesn’t understand that pain is a part of the game here.
Roach: Stephen, thanks for the clarification. Your point is an important one that I certainly do appreciate. I guess it boils down to how the world copes with pain — constructively (i.e., structural reforms in Europe and Asia plus deficit reduction and increased private saving in the US) or destructively (trade frictions and protectionism). I worry that Asia hasn’t gotten over the 1997-98 crisis syndrome — that it holds a grudge that may complicate the rebalancing endgame.
Andy Xie recently wrote the following: “It is in the overwhelming interest of the region (Asia) to fight back. The global economy should not be there just to serve the US. Everyone’s interest must be taken care of. The only sustainable equilibrium is a cooperative one.”
My question to Andy: If all Asia does in defense is sell Treasuries, it may end up shooting itself in the foot — i.e., incurring huge fiscal costs of currency losses for that portion of their dollar portfolios they do not sell. Asia needs a backstop of balance and resilience that will enable it to withstand the pain of a weaker dollar. If all there is to Asia is capex and exports, then Asia will get creamed when its US-centric external demand dries up. Talk about being beholden to the “kindness of strangers!” America is hooked on foreign capital inflows. Asia is hooked on the excesses of American consumerism. There is pain involved in breaking both of these habits. I agree with Stephen Li Jen that the world is in denial over that possibility.[…]

Posted by: Pat | Dec 14 2004 10:30 utc | 38

The link to the above discussion is BDebating the Dolalr, Part I, Part II

Posted by: b | Dec 14 2004 12:39 utc | 39

Someone is posting under my name, the above was not your Uncle $cam…. looks like we are being trolled…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Sep 9 2005 4:30 utc | 40

B, the post left at, [Posted by: Uncle $cam | Dec 13, 2004 9:18:40 AM |] was not me, further, they made reference to Washington Grizzly Stadium which is in my city, Missoula Montana. Which is close where I live, how could they know that?

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Sep 9 2005 4:47 utc | 41

To clairify, it was a post I did, but I didn’t post it today, looks like a ghost in the machine…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Sep 9 2005 4:51 utc | 42

What the heck? the top of this thread dates from December 2004!

Posted by: DeAnander | Sep 9 2005 4:55 utc | 43

Uncle, same thing happened to me on another thread earlier today.

Posted by: jj | Sep 9 2005 5:00 utc | 44

I don’t do software!

Posted by: Sherlock Holmes | Sep 9 2005 5:01 utc | 45

wow. I”m in here too, must be a time machine or, worse yet, a worm hole. Anybody know how far back this thing goes?

Posted by: anna missed | Sep 9 2005 6:09 utc | 46

And does this make me 9 months younger?

Posted by: anna missed | Sep 9 2005 6:11 utc | 47

maybe this is where Pat went.

Posted by: anna missed | Sep 9 2005 6:12 utc | 48

The mentally deficient are easily amused.

Posted by: HereWeGoAgain | Sep 13 2005 3:12 utc | 49