“…smokescreen…”
Get used to it Max.

Posted by: rapt | Dec 21 2004 15:29 utc | 3

That’s just insane. The issue isn’t that religious Muslims were discriminated, the issue is that there is a friggin religious-based arbitration in an apparently sane and civilised country like Canada. The basis for human rights, any modern constitution, and kind of secular societies, is that the Law applies similarly for everyone. Having faith-based legal arbitrations just destroys any pretense of being religion-neutral; it implies that there are fundamental differences between religions and between various faithfuls, which is the first step toward religious discrimination. Congrats to Mr. Boyd; now, if you follow his reasoning, any hate crime based upon religion is legitimised. French secularism seems wiser to me with every passing month (well partly wiser, since these hypocrites ban “big crosses” but apparently allow the small ones, but obviously target every hijab).

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Dec 21 2004 15:55 utc | 5

@ Clueless Joe:
Actually, Orthodox Jews already have this right, and most Jewish groups support the Shariah ruling.
Canada’s pretty good at upholding secularism in law, but its official policy of multiculturalism means a high sensitivity to each group’s cultural values. It’s not always an easy balance to find and no doubt there will be some messes, but compared to other countries, we’re not doing too badly.

Posted by: kat | Dec 21 2004 16:13 utc | 7

Chicken Tenders
Chopped and formed
Extruded meat by-products
Lightly battered
Deep fried in oil

Posted by: biklett | Dec 21 2004 16:55 utc | 9

(1.) Blair flies into Baghdad at 11 AM; (2.) the Mosul base is bombed an hour later; (3.) several hours after that, two French journalists are released from a captivity four months long….No one has said that the last two events were coordinated, or, still less, that they were coordinated as a reponse to the first event. And if they were so coordinated, who would dare to point this out? To do so would be the same as arguing a degree of integration at the command-level at least as refined as any boasted by the “coalition of the willing”.

Posted by: alabama | Dec 21 2004 18:01 utc | 11

Eyewitness Interview: “Iraq Is An Absolute Disaster”

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 21 2004 18:20 utc | 13

Any chance the human rights organisation who is indicting Rummie in Germany can do the same with Bush before late February 2005?

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 21 2004 19:08 utc | 15

@ Max & rapt, re “smokescreen”:
Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are
putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it. -Mark Twain, author and
humorist (1835-1910)
Solstice has come and gone–the sun is back on our side from Down Under.
“There is only one God;
He is the Sun God:
Ra! Ra! Ra!”
-R.A. (of course)Wilson, Illuminatus!

Posted by: catlady | Dec 21 2004 20:44 utc | 17

can’t help a quick rantlet — on way to work I see a headline: “Bomb Kills 60 in Iraq”
and as ever I ask myself where were the effing headlines while American bombs killed 60, yea verily, and 600, and 6000 in Iraq, which we’ve been bombing continuously since before Bush War I? oh, but it’s only news when Them Other Guys Done It. standing there reading this with the jinglejingle of the Salvation Army carnybarker in my ear, tinsel all over, happyhappy xmas tunes drifting from the half open window of — yes, you guessed it — SUV passing by, and sometimes I feel like I’m in one of the Dungeon Dimensions, the wrongness is so palpable in the air.

Posted by: DeAnander | Dec 21 2004 21:27 utc | 19

If you think laws don’t matter…
“…when Germany enacted a law forcing electric utility companies — and, ultimately, all electricity users — to pay higher rates to businesses or individuals who generate solar or wind energy and feed it back into the grid. With this guarantee of revenue, solar panels have become commonplace on new German houses and huge new windmills are a typical sight in rural areas, especially in the more windy north.
“This is part of our commitment as a government, to make Germany the world leader in alternative energy and in taking action against global warming, ” said Juergen Trittin, Germany’s environment minister. “We are willing to do what is necessary.”
The country is now the No. 1 world producer of wind energy, with more than 16,000 windmills generating 39 percent of the world total, and it is fast closing in on Japan for the lead in solar power. Wind and solar energy together provide more than 10 percent of the nation’s electricity, a rate that is expected to double by 2020.
It has become a profitable business, too, with about 60,000 people employed in the design and manufacture of wind and solar energy equipment.”
Read the rest – while Chimp ‘n’ Cheney stonewall

Posted by: jj | Dec 21 2004 22:06 utc | 21

The end of warfare – Victory in Falluja
Five page article

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 21 2004 23:16 utc | 23

@DM, good point. On MB’s I tend to steer clear of religious rants. The groundswell from the American right wouldn’t blink an eyelid if the Sunni were obliterated by neutron bombs tomorrow.
They “don’t want their freedoms” would be the excuse.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 21 2004 23:49 utc | 25

The End Of Warfare
        
(5 of 5)
 
So we add a few 10s of dollars per toy car and remote kit, say from your local K-mart.K-mart?. Turns out that an army cannot be equipped from K-mart, to quote the great military tactician Rumsfeld once again, circa early Dec 0). Also turns out Centcom claims that they cannot jam these (circa Dec 04,)
It does appear that we have a problem here. Toy remotes. Rather sad, would you not say? Coming from the second in command of the Mightiest Super powers’ mightiest command. Beam me up, Scotty.
Now pit against them a “superpower” that has already spent 150 billion of declining currency for sure but buys plenty still. Do not forget to add 450 billion recurring every year. (Hey it can buy anything but armor). Add another 100 billion on the cards (Jan 04).
But this does not help.
Short of using a neutron or a nuclear bomb (the Americans did use chemical weapons in Fallujah), despite all efforts, what the Americans have been able to achieve is relatively little, if anything at all, even in the best case estimates of the official narrative.
45 days and going on and on and on and on.
Oh, oh, but, but, but we took Baghdad in 21 days.
45 days for 16 sq kms…..
The opposing American army in this case has not been able to be actually “take” them out. Never mind control or physically occupying 16 sq kms.
In fact, even a neutron bomb would not be militarily significant. You need to “take” it and keep it and keep on keeping it and keep on and on and on….
And they have not. They will not. They cannot
The limits of raw firepower have been reached and no matter what (2000 pound bombs to container cluster bombs to the new “large Abrams” tank. Oh well, if not a RPG7, a RPG9 or two will do the trick, thank you), the American military objective is no longer possible.
Shoulder-held surface to air weapons limit the role of armored copters. In fact there are several ‘copter graveyards in and around Fallujah. Big ones. Some of them are quite near the tank killing fields. Yes, several hundred armored vehicles resting, not quite in peace but hey…
Close air support is not feasible on account of the proximity of “friendlies”. Savage bombing without limits does not help.
The war in the former Yugoslavia is a case in point. Despite 72 days of non stop bombing, it is now (post facto) a conceded position that the opposing side lost no more than 5-10% of their military hardware. (The loss was political, but that is another story.)
Now consider an entirely different narrative. Of the the land between the two rivers, of your ancestors and my ancestors, of the fountainheads of civilisation, of Sumer, Ur, Mesopotamia, of Lions, of Hummurabi, of Salah al Din Yusuf Ibn Ayyub and much much more.
And yes, a place. Called Fallujah. But, say, about 84 years ago
And now add to the narrative, parts of the present: a unilaterally disarmed opponent (remember the tizzy circa late march 03 about night vision equipment? Night vision? Never mind state of the art SAMs and Kornets. The sanctions? Oh what were they?
Now add 25 million men, women and children – the richest denizens on this planet (Yes the richest. In every sense. As the very inheritors of civilisation it self. Or in a more mundane sense with 300 billion+ barrels of oil, an average Iraqi’s garbage would be reconstructing the streets of Manhattan in a fairer world (the Americans have in contrast 22.5 billion barrels left), and, yes, the bravest. And the most suffering on the face of this planet
Add to that the Story of Fallujah (circa late 2004). Then perhaps you will not be so astonished to hear what appear to be strange words to your ears.
For these are Iraqi words. Yes, Iraqi. Dated 10th of December 2004
“The enemy is on the run.They are in fear of a resistance movement they can not see nor predict.We, now choose when, where, and how to strike. And as our ancestors drew the first sparks of civilization, we will redefine the word ‘conquest’. Today we write a new chapter in the arts of urban warfare”
The Iraqi resistance has put an end to “the end of history”. A new history is being written.Yes indeed it has been written. Not just another chapter but an entirely new book. One may see the the beginning of the great American retreat across the oceans, if they are lucky. Over 50,000 American soldiers have been medically evacuated out of Iraq till Nov. 2004 (interesting number, is it not?).
Yes, there will be a lot lot more lives lost and the endgame’s contours are still unclear.
Oh the last line. Yes the last line addressed specifically to one Mr George W. Bush:
“You have asked us to ‘Bring it on’, and so have we. Like never expected. Have you another challenge?”
Yes Indeed, has he another challenge? No, he is a trifle busy, you see. We did try a photo-op on 18th of Dec 2004. We are not fools you see. But no photos.
I wonder why..
Raw unopposed firepower has reached its limits. Never have so few battled against so many in face of overwhelming odds and brought a superpower to its knees. And the nightmare continues.
It is indeed the greatest military victory in history. The self proclaimed mightiest empire that ever was, in fact, turns out to have had the shortest reign ever. This Empire met its match in the land between the two rivers.””
from the link outtlook india

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 22 2004 0:57 utc | 27

@DM, then you have ZERO grounds upon which to object to native grown fundies. If you cannot comprehend the difference between bigotry & self-preservation, you have a serious gap in yr. understanding.

Posted by: jj | Dec 22 2004 2:01 utc | 29

Hello everyone:
Just reading the postings and have a few comments.
1. So called tort reform. Elites and corporations hate he bill of rights. They don’t like civil suits because you actually have a jury of your peers. That means their not CEOs and millionares. That is why the idea of “paid” juries has been floated. You pay professional people that know about the subject your in court for. That way a novice jury of your peers cannot screw the big wigs as they see it.
2. On using sharia. I don’t know about the rest of you, some are Europeans and from down under, but I believe allowing any justice outside the current legal system is wrong. We have a system of justice and any type of religious law that judges for any situation is outside the law therefore unlawfull. I am a strict believer in separation of church and state.
3. The war in Iraq. With the polls showing the US population faltering about the war in Iraq, now is the time to write legislators and call for trials of Wolfie, Richard Pearl, and all of the other neo-cons to be tried for treason. I am going to craft a letter soon.
See ya later.

Posted by: jdp | Dec 22 2004 2:57 utc | 31

jj
If only the native Americans had had the prescience to think like you. Apart from having an enlightened environmental policy America wouldn’t have had to have bigots like you living in it. How you must rue not having lived in the Five Lamps area in the nineteenth century when you could have attacked and lynched all manner of strange newcomers. or maybe you hanker more after being a ‘Know Nothing’? Still, in some racist mindsets somebody has to raise alarms and demonize ‘others’ and it seems you have found your niche. Where do you stand on Spics, Wops, Dagoes, Krauts, Wetbacks and Paddies? And have you any contingency plans for uppity Niggers? (Especially the Muslim male ones). What about Chinks? They might be fifth columnists and that’s before we even consider the Triads. And those Boat People, what kind of grudges might they be holding and what revenge plotting might they be up to? And those Mormons, the polygamous child rapists and abusers. Are they OK because they are Christians? I just know that you have a fully worked out comprehensive typology for the deserving volk, would you like to share it with us? I take it for granted that the KKK is fine in your book, maybe even a kind of élite vanguard for your line of work. While Muslim women and little girls have been perishing in their thousands under your country’s bombs it really is awfully kind of you to tear your eyes away from U.S. rape and domestic violence statistics and don the mantle of all-knowing one when it comes to the life of each and every Muslima. And I suppose we should be grateful that no man will even look at the amputees and horribly scarred ones your nations ordnance has liberated from the threat of male domination. And it is just Muslims isn’t it, the enemy? Or is it Arab Muslims? No, can’t be because you mentioned your intimate familiarity with Afghanistan and you don’t seem one bit at ease with those wily Persians either. Besides, Arabs only comprise 15% of all Muslims so I know you’ll have harsh words for the 182 million plus Indonesians, the millions of Chinese Uyghurs, the (not conforming strictly with the Qur’an) Tuaregs and all the other fiends you’re being so kind as to share your prejudice, knowledge and anxiety about. Whatever your final solution is, be sure to factor in the ever increasing numbers of converts to Islam, you don’t want them slipping through your net do you? Some of the swine look like Whiteys so it’s all very difficult for you I know. Still, you seem so knowledgeable that I’m sure you’ll be able to outline confidently the various evils associated with different Islamic Sunni schools of jurisprudence, the position of the Shi’ites (including of course, ‘Fivers’, ‘Seveners’ and ‘Twelvers’ and, possibly, the Dru’uze). Don’t worry too much about the Yezidis and the teeming millions in Africa and the old U.S.S.R. just yet. We don’t need train time-tables and oven shifts at this juncture, you can get to that later when you’ve convinced enough of us why some sixth of the earth’s people need to be treated as repulsive and a danger to the rest of humanity. Please don’t be over long with your reply as there’s every chance that some mentally retarded or juvenile prisoner might be put to death somewhere in the USA while we’re waiting and I’m sure you wouldn’t want to miss that. Incidentally, might it be OK for Muslim countries to expel any Americans living and working in them? I’m only a tyro at this sick bigotry line of yours but shouldn’t we, as we’re all very rational and enlightened, be looking at some kind of consistency when we draw up this new world order of yours? Or maybe I’m not thinking the right way at all, maybe I’m being outrageous to suggest that Muslims could impose similar restrictions upon ‘aliens’. Maybe I’ve not wrapped my mind around the status of vermin that you are ascribing to me sufficiently well to know my place. Help me out here jj, tell me exactly how vile I am and how I can never qualify as a fully paid up human being like all the white boys and girls.

Posted by: Sic transit gloria USA | Dec 22 2004 3:02 utc | 33

sic transit
Wehat is the best book to read about islamic fundamentalism?

Posted by: slothrop | Dec 22 2004 3:08 utc | 35

slothrop,
Unfortunately the correct moth you are trying to pin is not flying alone. Islamic fundamentalisms of various stripes can be found pushing their heads above the soil in a number of areas and their roots and the nourishment they require, as well as their manner of propagation, provide an exotic and exhausting pilgrimage into all manner of history, ancient and modern. A good starting place might be the excellent The Battle for Saudi Arabia: Royalty, Fundamentalism and Global Power by As`ad Abukhalil as that particular nursery has a Johnny Appleseed approach to all kinds of hybrid and mutant species of fundamentalism and provides a different kind of mulch for each. I will try to think of some other works and get back to you but I would recommend that volume unreservedly. ‘The New Crusades: Constructing the Muslim Enemy’ Emran Qureshi & Michael A. Sells (Eds) is a excellent place to look for misconceptions about fundamentalisms, ‘Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror’ by Zachary Abuza will alert you to potential horrors that might not even be on your radar yet, and ‘Seeds of Terror’ by Maria A. Ressa covers some of the same ground. I will try to think of some other useful works but again would warn you that there are so many tangled offshoots that it pays to enter the water slowly.

Posted by: Sic transit gloria USA | Dec 22 2004 3:30 utc | 37

I think others are being even harder on jj than I am inclined to be 🙂 his/her remarks are indeed provocative, and if I were Muslim they might enrage me, but I guess I have enough understanding to engage constructively — or try to.
I’m critical of jj’s simplistic reduction of all/most Islamic subcultures to “MaleMuslims” (this view erases many brilliant female writers, thinkers, activists in the Muslim world), but I do understand the fear of fundamentalism (any kind!). the misogyny at the heart of most Sky God fundamentalisms is no joke: it costs lives. just ask RAWA. “The Handmaid’s Tale” could just as well have been written about a deep-fundie Sharia culture as the Bible-based fundie xtian culture.
I guess what I would like to say (for the record as it were) is that these fears of being “outbred” by a prolific alien Other — of being overrun by some kind of intrusive Kudzu Kulture — are primal, recurrent, archetypical, and we give in to them at our peril. the Brits talked like this about the Irish, various Gentile Euros talked like this about the Jews, and so forth. the image of the “teeming” mass of (dusky?) aliens with foreign (perhaps barbaric) ways, forming a secret society within our society, possibly scheming to take over — it’s a classic, repetitive nightmare, at least in the West. I think our distaste for fundie excesses plugs into this archetypical fear and gives it a a foot in the door.
heaven knows what all of its roots are — and I don’t mean its roots in perceived realities (like genuinely oppressive behaviours and customs that offend our universalist ethical principles), I mean its roots in deeper, less rational places — fear of contamination, fear of what is strange and secret, fear of the foreigner, notions of Taint and Purity. maybe a primordial fear of swarming insects, like the predatory ants of the Amazonian jungle? certainly we seem (worldwide) to retreat to insect metaphors when we want to express our irrational fear and loathing of the Foreigner. the Likudniks call the Palestinians “cockroaches”. the Germans used an insecticide gas to murder Jews.
anyway I don’t see an Islamic takeover of Canada in the near future (trying to imagine the fireworks as the Islamic Jihad tries to convert Francophone Quebec!)… the degree to which ethnic minorities should be allowed to indoctrinate their children in laws and customs contrary to the received standard of the surrounding cosmopolitan culture is a tricky one… my instinct is to establish a basic Constitutional type of ruleset defining minimal human rights, and regard violations of those rights as illegal regardless of cultural tradition. if we don’t draw that Kantian line then we end up defending genital mutilation, wife-beating, selling children into slavery, murdering adulterous partners, locking our lesbian auntie in the attic for life, and all kinds of other grand old traditions that, frankly, stink.
this instinct would lead me, for example, to criminalise the parent who forces a pregnant teenager to have a baby rather than an abortion — placing ideology or religious conviction above the daughter’s well-being. I would criminalise the parent who forces a child into an arranged marriage for similar reasons, or a parent who abuses a child physically, no matter how “traditional” child-beating is in their cultures (whether Irish Catholic or Afghani Muslim). preventing a child from enjoying the benefit of universal education might make my list of crimes (ah but where does this leave home-schoolers, with whom I have a fair amt of sympathy?).
there are many borderline cases. is it child abuse to make a child participate in ritual fasting at certain times of the year? to make a child stay up late for prayers or attend a midnight Mass? to make a child learn the Catechism and dress up for Communion? to indoctrinate any minor in a rote religious ritual prior to the age of reason? and if it should be illegal to indoctrinate minors, then what about advertising — a far more powerful presence in most children’s lives than Church or School?
my sympathies are uncomfortably divided. I am “with” the French secularists to the max. and yet I have travelled and visited among the Amish and have seen genuinely happy families. I can’t find it in me to condemn the Amish (who don’t approve of child beating, btw, and who don’t accept children as members of the Church community; that choice is only made after the age of reason). if I defend the Amish right to adhere to their own “Rule” and to live in the way that they believe is right and honorable, why should I not defend the right of the Muslim, Hindu, Shinto, Orthodox Jew, and all the rest…? shall we ban Hebrew School and bar/bat mitzvahs?
maybe the one rule I would bind on every diverse, wacky cultist in my ideal cosmpolitan culture is “No Force.” people should be free to leave a religion, cultic ruleset, or other “phyle” (hat tip to Neal Stephenson) any time they want to. if women want to practise Islam and wear veils they should be able to — but they must also be able to stop, and no one should be allowed to restrain, imprison, detain or coerce them. if people want to violate the laws of their phyle then the punishment should be, not stoning or beating or burning or any other such barbarism, but simply exile — expulsion into the larger, surrounding community. if the phyle wants to shun its erring lambs, that’s its business — I would merely prefer to prevent it from harming them.
so I would argue that the degree to which we should permit Sharia (or Halachic, or Canon) Law to rule people’s lives is that it should be valid grounds for “community divorce,” i.e. expulsion or shunning. the Amish seem to have worked all this out rather neatly. they don’t shoot, beat, torture or burn people who break the Rule. they just stop talking to them… and that imho should be the limit of legal authority for rule-systems outside the universal law of the land…
sorry, I’m being verbose again…

Posted by: DeAnander | Dec 22 2004 5:30 utc | 39

Quiet, or I’ll call democracy – Iraqi women were long the most liberated in the Middle East. Occupation has confined them to their homes

The US state department has launched a $10m “Iraqi women’s democracy initiative” to train Iraqi women in the skills and practices of democratic life ahead of the forthcoming elections. Paula Dobriansky, US undersecretary of state for global affairs, declared:”We will give Iraqi women the tools, information and experience they need to run for office and lobby for fair treatment.” The fact that the money will go mainly to organisations embedded with the US administration, such as the Independent Women’s Forum (IWF) founded by Dick Cheney’s wife Lynn, was, of course, not mentioned.
…
The reality is different. Iraqi women were actively involved in public life even under the Ottoman empire. In 1899 the first schools for girls were established, the first women’s organisation in 1924. By 1937 there were four women’s magazinespublished in Baghdad.
Women were involved in the 1920 revolution against British occupation, including in fighting. In the 50s, political parties established women’s organisations. All reflected the same principle: fighting alongside men, women were also liberating themselves. That was proven in the aftermath of the 1958 revolution ending the British-imposed monarchy when women’s organisations achieved within two years what over 30 years of British occupation failed to: legal equality.
This process led Unicef to report in 1993: “Rarely do women in the Arab world enjoy as much power as they do in Iraq … men and women must receive equal pay for equal work. A wife’s income is recognised as independent from her husband’s. In 1974, education was made free at all levels, and in 1979 it was made compulsory for girls and boys until the age of 12.” By the early 90s, Iraq had one of the highest literacy rates in the Arab world. There were more professional women in positions of power than in almost any other Middle Eastern nation

Posted by: Fran | Dec 22 2004 6:47 utc | 41

So I’ve been catching a bit of the media coverage on the Mosul attack, and must say it’s a little odd. There is this air of suprise in the reportage, as if it was some unwarranted, unexpected, and outrageous violation of innocence. While not to make light of the actual tragic death of individual soldiers, there is an almost Keene painting like sentamentalization that I’ve not seen before — and coupled with all the Rumsfield armor and rubber stamp signiture stuff, there is this distinct wiff of “victimization” in the wind. After the destruction of Fallugha, and the deaths of over a thousand resistance fighters, and untold number of civilians, all ballyhooed as” breaking the back of the insurgency” its just a little disconcerting, when they strike back in similar fashon, to see everybody from command to the media go all big eyed and weepy. On one hand, you think what the fuck could they be thinking? destroy huge pieces of their cultural legacy, kill 100thousand innocents, cant even get the electricity back on after 20 months, and on and endless on, and coupled with an ever growing resistance and degenerating security — you would think this kind of attack would be ever more expected and understood, and so then maybe it is, and so maybe, just maybe, it is, with only the (unblameable) civilian government to blame the military and media is putting out some little plea to the sheeple as to their hopeless plight and untenable position. Running fast out of options, it’s either start the blame game now, or it’s more genocide and more retaliation.

Posted by: anna missed | Dec 22 2004 10:49 utc | 43

As a GI on the scene remarked, anna missed (and I may not have it exactly right), “this has ruined Christmas for a lot of families back home”.

Posted by: alabama | Dec 22 2004 13:53 utc | 45

I predict that bush’s body will shrivel up until it looks just like his little shriveled black heart…. oh, sorry, must have dozed off…

Posted by: beq | Dec 22 2004 14:43 utc | 47

Good afternoon, evening or morning,
I’ve enjoyed reading your comments, and here are my predictions for 2005
1) The Rest of the World (i.e. not the USA) starts taking more critical interest in India / China. The USA becomes interesting to religious-minded folks (pro or con), but many others (=tourist dollars) stay away, preferring…
2) Europe, which will see more and more ex-pat Americans arriving, and trying to stay, while Vancouver watches house-prices quintuple.
3) South America labour gets still more organised (maybe the first effective trans-national labour movements?)
4) Tony Blair wins election (I’m in the UK), then has serious heart issue, passes power on to…? (I don’t know)
5) Ach, that’ll do for now. 3) doesn’t count — I don’t expect anything big to happen soon, and don’t know enough to say. 4), well, I’ll vote Liberal Democrat (no equivalent in America) and dream of them winning. They currently poll around 20%. As for 1) and 2), I expect Europe to avoid the US once eye-scans (or whatever, fingerprints?) are compulsory. Oh, one last prediction:
6) The Black Sea countries (starting from the bottom: Turkey, Georgia, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria) and a few others close by will be the best testbeds for where democracy is heading. But that’s not a prediction for 2005, so I’ll say that Turkey will see its property values rise steadily (except near Armenia–too many earthquakes), and will make lossa cash next summer as Spain becomes too much like an ugly northern suburb (all that white/red flesh! All that beer! All that vomiting), whether German, dutch, English, or, er, well, I’ve headed into random stereotyping (I burn slower than some, quicker than others, and my ideal temperature is 23 degrees celsius, May, flowers, my star sign? Mungo, the undead.

Posted by: RG | Dec 22 2004 15:07 utc | 49

Pat, I thought Hussein’s army was well trained in the management of artillery. And wouldn’t 15 km. be a bit of a stretch for competent gunners lacking the leisure to bracket their target? If so, then finding a secure placement at closer range with good forward observation would be the greater problem–one whose solution would lie in reliable inside information…. I fuss about this because I’m convinced that Americans ignored three things when invading Iraq–namely, that Hussein’s army was (and would remain) well organized, well equipped and well trained (and surely the same is true for much of his civilian infrastructure). My guess that the Mosul bombing and the French hostage release were coordinated with Blair’s visit takes this survival of Hussein’s military and civilian infrastructure as its premise –or sees it as a premise to be entertained as things unfold….

Posted by: alabama | Dec 22 2004 15:53 utc | 51

Crystal balls are dangerous toys. All those glass splinters embedded deep in the ego when things go wrong…
@DM After first tasting a Big Mac in 1972, I predicted the demise of McDonalds. ROTFL. Yeah, and I thought Reagan was unelectable (well I was younger then). Thanks for the belly laugh. I needed it.
So: 2005 (sigh). I predict: BushCo continues to flail around trying to “save the economy” while continuing to tailor policy to the taste of their elite/rentier money-constituency and their buddies in the Guns and Filth (arms and oil) businesses.
Since these are incompatible goals, I expect to see unemployment continue to rise, real wages to decline, and corporadoes to continue to carpe the bloody diem and renege on more and more labour agreements. I expect the BushCo assault on the environment and on regulation of industry to continue, in tandem with their push to regulate the hell out of everyone’s private lives — expecting yet more Patriot Act BS and other moves towards police-statism. Typical Banana Republic stuff, strong-arming the people while looting the treasury and selling off the natural resources.
I expect these follies to have what I would consider a predictable effect, i.e. the further destruction of American competitiveness — educationally, industrially, financially — so that the country’s real power (as opposed to brute military power) declines still further relative to China and the EU. Expecting a decline in tourism, and a “brain drain” in which both artistic and scientific intellectuals flee the country in search of greater freedom and lower BS levels. In other words, I expect the US to replay, over a shorter time frame, the decline of its old enemy and dancing partner the USSR — i.e. destroying its own intelligentsia, rewarding lies and incompetence, destroying public confidence in government and management, trying to cover up problems rather than question its strategies, and hosting a horde of opportunistic looters and embezzlers under the cover of State secrecy and authoritarianism. It will be amusing to see how all these familiar behaviours play out under the banners of neolib capitalist ideology (Reagan-flavoured Friedmanism) vs Soviet-flavoured Marxism.
As to the insanity in the ME I dare not predict. I predicted that the Israelis would get sick of Sharon and kick him and his Likudniks out, years ago. I was wrong, horribly wrong, and so I dare not guess now how much more wrecking of Israel’s economy, society, and reputation Sharon will get away with before he dies comfortably in his bed. I’d like to predict a loud and visible rejection of Sharon’s Israel by diasporic Jewry, but it’s a hard call.
But mostly I predict that none of us is likely to remain coolly unsurprised by the events of the next year or two — i.e. that prediction is a mug’s game at this point. There’s a stink of chaos in the wind — the anarchism of the present US regime, its open contempt for public opinion and the rule of law — the rise of fundamentalist religious obsessions in various cultures around the world — the collapse of ecosystems and the resulting scarcity of essential resources like food and potable water — the everpresent question marks of Peak Oil and climate change. Some systems remain in relatively stable configurations for a longish time and then enter a flurry of unstable reconfiguration and chaotic change until they fall into a new stable configuration for a while. It may be just my age, or my taking a greater interest in global issues in the last 4 years or so than I had for the prior 10 years or so — but I get this gut feeling that “the world” (as we know it) is entering into one of these flurries of instability and reconfiguration, like the breathless power struggle following the death of a King without issue or with rival heirs. Some kind of new “order” presumably will emerge, but the geopolitical configuration in which my entire life was spent (US vs USSR at a stalemate, conventional ground warfare, easy looting of plentiful resources, cheap energy) is — imho — over. Its semblance or shell lurches on but the next chapter is already being written. I think it will be written in Chinese.
But then, I thought Reagan was unelectable.

Posted by: DeAnander | Dec 22 2004 17:55 utc | 53

@alabama
Hussein’s artillery was proficient at massing fires on large formations. The insurgents, in part for lack of knowledge, have been poor shots with single fires aimed at military and civilian facilities; they’re lucky to have something land within the compound, wildly lucky to hit anything except dirt when they do. They have to fire manually, without a launch system, and this greatly increases the targeting difficulty.
15 km is the range of the 122 mm rocket, and they routinely fire from that distance because base cordons don’t go out that far.
Since b has informed us that it was a suicide bomber in Mosul rather than a rocket, the news isn’t as bad. It was bound to happen with the sheer number of local nationals working on the bases, but it’s a more limited threat than better targeting combined with inside sources.

Posted by: Pat | Dec 23 2004 0:33 utc | 55

Like the “Good Germans” of Hitler’s Germany, eventually [Americans] will pay for the crimes of their government.

Posted by: DM | Dec 23 2004 0:57 utc | 57

(extract continued)
If this is indeed correct (and there is no reason to consider any other alternative) then the Iraqi Resistance’s repulsing the assault and indeed the forcing back of the American positions represents not only a turning point in the American occupation of Sovereign Iraq but in fact a turning point in warfare itself.
In fact, it would certainly be one of the greatest military victories in history.
Over the last 30 years since Vietnam, the normative amount of explosive power and force multipliers available to the Americans and their opponents (compared to say the North Koreans in the 50’s, the NVA in the 60s) has normalised and in fact are comparable if one were to factor in the context in which the firepower is used and deployed.
The ‘normalisation” of firepower on a level playing field- In this case, Fallujah, or for that matter the rest of Iraq, is noteworthy.
Consider one such example. A RPG 7 can travel up to 300/700/950 meters. At 300 meters, even a basic warhead can penetrate 330 mm of steel armor. Yes, 33 cms, 13 inches–that is a lot of steel. The projectile would cost perhaps $30-40. Conservatively, a squad of 3 armed with RPG-7s have more than a fighting chance against a M1 Abrams. In close urban quarters, the advantage that the tank had (in say open ground in a conventional war) is completely lost.
The cost/personnel advantage is noteworthy. With minimal or no training, just about any one can operate a RPG. A squad of say 3 would cost perhaps no more than $5000 to equip. Against this, the M1 Abrams (“the mightiest tank”, 70 odd tonnes of steel, a few million a pop).
Now consider the mightiest Gun in the West against the rookie squad of three. Throw in a street. Add cover (even rubble will do, in fact quite nicely, thank you)
Even odds?
Now consider for a moment. Consider a force of say a few thousand men — the best in the business and certainly the bravest men on the face of this planet–say no more than 3000, anything more and it would be one sided. 3000 against 12,000 to 20,000 sounds about right.
Now add ingenuity, intelligence and passion and a good reason to be very very angry. Throw in a just cause. In fact, the “most just cause of all”.
Now consider that these are equipped with only say RPG 7s as well as say RPG 9s, a few dozen Strellas, a few thousand modified versions of the S5K rocket, basic antiaircraft guns, a few hundred tonnes of say c4/semtex (it is quite cheap), a few thousand fin stabilised rockets (52 mm to 152 mm), basic artillery and mortar (say 60mm, 82mm, and 120mm shells), a few SAMs (say SAM7 and SAM 9), a few thousand grad rockets, faithful ole Kalasnikovs, a few hundred sniper rifles with say .50 mm explosive ammo. It may also be possible that few Samud and Abgail missiles (range of 100 km) are available.These are not very large missiles. Add a few more, nothing fancy again–say, the Tariq and Katyusha, very very basic indeed).
There is more, but you get the idea. Not very state of the art weapons, far from it. But very very functional. Now, consider the sheer amount of counter offensive power these represent
Add to that pre-prepared defensive positions, not very fancy for sure but very functional and very very functional minefields with a variety of triggers. Throw in, the “most ingenious” booby traps ever.
Add the Iraqi resistance–the bravest of the brave–operating these. Well now, it is state of the art. The State of the Art of Urban Warfare.
Oh yes, And yes, how can I forget toys. Well, one needs to buy those since “remote controls from toys” (Well at least as per the American Military) are a primary trigger in IEDs.

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 23 2004 1:03 utc | 59

My mother’s attorney, a Democrat with connections to VA Gov. Mark Warner, had a cheery 2005 prediction: this administration has been such a disaster that the Republicans will begin to turn on it in a pin-the-blame game, weakening W so that none of his agenda gets through. Rumsfeld, he thinks, is just the first act. I agree with him on Rumsfeld, but am not as confident about the complete unraveling he expects. A nice thought, though.
My predictions:
1) other nations form diplomatic alliances to block US initiatives in the ME and Latin America, an obvious sign of declining US influence to everyone on the planet but Americans
2) Russia and China become informal allies (they recently settled a border dispute and will conduct joint military exercises next year)
3) Mark Warner’s political star rises
I’d add some stuff about the declining dollar, widening trade deficit and weak economy, but that wouldn’t qualify as a prediction.

Posted by: lonesomeG | Dec 23 2004 1:45 utc | 61

I think it was the improvisation effect of the above exchange that returned that memory — I liked it.

Posted by: anna missed | Dec 23 2004 3:15 utc | 63

anna missed
the magic band. wow. aside from his moonbeams & bluejeans period, all of beefheart’s work is part of the american music canon.
there are few really timeless examples of american r&r. 13th floor elevators, some pere ubu (dub housing, art of walking, bailing man, modern dance), stooges fun house, red krayola (damn near everything), velvet underground…
but not many. you’re lucky you saw mr. van vliet.

Posted by: slothrop | Dec 23 2004 4:04 utc | 65

@SKOD:
Keep on smoking it, whatever you’re smoking.
You folks ought to take all that timber you got, produce little pieces of wood–sell the little pieces to American fundies as fragments of the True Cross–authenticated of course.
Erasmus and Barnum weren’t born yesterday.

Posted by: FlashHarry | Dec 23 2004 4:20 utc | 67

Next, SKOD,
You could work up to precious inlays.
God knows where a Ponzi scheme in religious artifacts could end.

Posted by: FlashHarry | Dec 23 2004 4:30 utc | 69

Flashharry.
Seems I heard Mel Gibson did market some “nails from the cross” replicas with the running of The Passion of the Christ. Something to hang those stockings from, no ?

Posted by: anna missed | Dec 23 2004 4:44 utc | 71

And God Jul (a swedish kind of christmas) to All!

Posted by: A swedish kind of death | Dec 23 2004 12:22 utc | 73

Top Air Force Lawyer Steps Aside; Investigators Examine Alleged Sexual Conduct With Subordinate

In December 2002, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld approved the use of harsh interrogation techniques against suspected al Qaeda and Taliban fighters held prisoner at the Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. But military interrogators at Guantanamo complained to superior officers that techniques they were asked to use, such as stripping prisoners to humiliate them and using dogs to scare them, were abusive. That provoked an extended Defense Department review, during which military lawyers for each of the services forcefully expressed their concerns, officials said.
After an intense bureaucratic struggle, the lawyers, including Fiscus, persuaded Rumsfeld to rescind his approval of those interrogation procedures

from LawyerNews.com and Washington Post
In case you hadn’t seen this yet. Personally I have mixed feelings about lawyers but this does seem like the Donald is getting back at someone who dared cross him.

Posted by: dan of steele | Dec 23 2004 19:05 utc | 75

WHEN STUDENT OF SOCRATES & HABERMAS BECOMES MAYOR OF BOGOTA, COLUMBIA.
“When there was a water shortage, Mockus appeared on TV programs taking a shower and turning off the water as he soaped, asking his fellow citizens to do the same. In just two months people were using 14 percent less water, a savings that increased when people realized how much money they were also saving because of economic incentives approved by Mockus; water use is now 40 percent less than before the shortage.
“The distribution of knowledge is the key contemporary task,” Mockus said. “Knowledge empowers people. If people know the rules, and are sensitized by art, humor, and creativity, they are much more likely to accept change.”
Mockus taught vivid lessons with these tools. One time, he asked citizens to put their power to use with 350,000 “thumbs-up” and “thumbs-down” cards that his office distributed to the populace. The cards were meant to approve or disapprove of other citizens’ behavior; it was a device that many people actively – and peacefully – used in the streets.
He also asked people to pay 10 percent extra in voluntary taxes. To the surprise of many, 63,000 people voluntarily paid the extra taxes. A dramatic indicator of the shift in the attitude of “Bogotanos” during Mockus’ tenure is that, in 2002, the city collected more than three times the revenues it had garnered in 1990.
Another Mockus inspiration was to ask people to call his office if they found a kind and honest taxi driver; 150 people called and the mayor organized a meeting with all those good taxi drivers, who advised him about how to improve the behavior of mean taxi drivers. The good taxi drivers were named “Knights of the Zebra,” a club supported by the mayor’s office.
Yet Mockus doesn’t like to be called a leader. “There is a tendency to be dependent on individual leaders,” he said. ‘To me, it is important to develop collective leadership. I don’t like to get credit for all that we achieved. Millions of people contributed to the results that we achieved … I like more egalitarian relationships. I especially like to orient people to learn.’ ”
Magnificent
Problem is it’s all flim flam…infantilization of governing or playing us for suckers…..if it’s merely in the service of the Pirates holding onto power….placating the masses after they’ve shipped their jobs to China…..Hint: It’s published in Harvard Journal.
Nevertheless, esp. since this is the Holidays, we deserve a moment of Delight in the Human Imagination working in the interests of the Common Good that Libertarians so decry in their Idiotic, Individualism Gone Mad World, of All for One.

Posted by: jj | Dec 24 2004 3:05 utc | 77

The True Values of The Day -By E. J. Dionne Jr.

No one can celebrate a genuine Christmas without being truly poor. The self-sufficient, the proud, those who, because they have everything, look down on others, those who have no need even of God — for them there will be no Christmas. Only the poor, the hungry, those who need someone to come on their behalf, will have that someone. That someone is God, Emmanuel, God-with-us. Without poverty of spirit there can be no abundance of God.
— the late Archbishop Oscar Romero of El Salvador
…
In Iraq, young men and women serving their country complain of equipment shortages and wonder why their leaders didn’t send enough troops in the first place. Could it be that acknowledging the true cost of the Iraqi invasion at the outset might have endangered all those tax cuts — and might have reduced support for the war? Isn’t that a question of values?
Archbishop Romero was murdered on March 24, 1980, because he chose to stand with El Salvador’s poor against a repressive regime. “Brothers, you came from our own people,” Romero told soldiers in El Salvador’s army. “You are killing your own brothers. . . . In the name of God, in the name of this suffering people whose cry rises to heaven more loudly each day, I implore you, I beg you, I order you: Stop the repression.”
How many among the cardinals and bishops and pastors and preachers and televangelists who now enjoy favor in high places would have the courage to do what Archbishop Romero did? In fairness, how many of the rest of us would? Isn’t that a question of values?
A child was born in a manger because there was no room for his family anywhere else. Wasn’t that a question of values?

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you all.

Posted by: Fran | Dec 24 2004 17:53 utc | 79

A late entry in the 2005 prediction game…
Arab astrologer predicts Bush assassination

Posted by: DM | Dec 29 2004 12:35 utc | 81