Just in time for your predictions for 2005…
(or your opinion on the most significant events of 2004)

[Update]…yes, it’s the same thread. In 2005, we will do more to recycle stuff and waste less, won’t we?

Qom earthquake, Iran, 2003, 31,000 dead
Gujurat earthquake, India, 2001, 25,000 dead
Izmit earthquake, Turkey, 1999, 17,000 dead
Floods, Venezuela, 1999, 9,000 dead

Aid promised to Qom last year: 1 billion dollars. Aid actually delivered to date: 17 million

“We” seem to care more this time. But why? and how long will it last?

Cont. reading: Asia quake – Why do “we” care this time?

Not that we don’t have more important topics these days, but I see that right wing blogs are all excited about the recent (gruesome) story of a pregnant woman who was killed, whose abdomen was cut off and the 8-months foetus extracted by a deranged woman, but the baby miraculously survived. The argument is, of course, “if it survived, it must have been alive”!

For some background, see this CNN story and this NY Post story about it. The WSJ’s Opinion Journal makes a lot of hay of the fact that the baby is alternatively called a “foetus” or a “girl”, thus supposedly underlying the moral shallowness of the SCLM (or supporting the fact that they are the same thing).

Am I crazy to think that (i) it was a foetus while in its mother’s womb, (ii) it became a baby girl because it survived (and not the other way round) and (iii) the poor father and his baby have lost a wife/mother and this story is tragic and should not be politicised?

Why is the debate on abortion so sterile in the US? Why can’t a law be voted on the topic like in most other “civilised” countries, to make it “safe, legal, and rare”?

Is US foreign policy exclusively driven by the Pentagon? Are an aircraft carrier, a  Expeditionary Strike Group and P3 submarine hunters the right way to show hearts and minds in a disaster area?

New York Times

Rejecting a United Nations officials suggestion that it had been a "stingy" aid donor, the Bush administration on Tuesday announced another $20 million in relief for victims of the Asian earthquake and tsunamis and dispatched an aircraft carrier and other ships to the region for possible relief operations.

What the NYT calls another $20 million is an addition to $15 million pledged earlier. Yet again a journalist underscores in his SAT. The European Union puts up some $41 million plus individual countries giving to the International Red Cross and sending emergency teams. Australia comes up with $27 million, Japan with $40 million and the UK with $29 million Link.
For comparison: A carrier, without its armada of support ships, costs about $150 million per year in operation and maintenance Link (pdf). The United States has 12 aircraft carriers. But it is not only the carrier the US sends to help:

Kitsupsun

Pacific Command also is assembling small assessment teams that will be dispatched to three countries in the region to assess how U.S. military resources can best be applied in those countries.

Pacific Command spokesman Lt. Col. William Bigelow said he was not authorized to identify the three countries, but other government officials said they were Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand.

FCW.com

Officials for the U.S. Seventh Fleet, headquartered in Yokosuka, Japan, said they had also diverted the six ships in Expeditionary Strike Group 5 to provide assistance to countries struggling to recover from the tsunami, including Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Expeditionary Strike Group 5 ships include USS Bonhomme Richard, a flat-deck helicopter carrier; USS Duluth, a landing platform dock; and USS Rushmore, a landing ship dock. The Abraham Lincoln and the Bonhomme Richard have a wide range of command and control systems, including wideband satellite systems, that can be used to provide communications in devastated areas.

Anderson said the Navy has increased from three to six the number of P-3 patrol planes performing reconnaissance operations in the Indian Ocean. Pacific Command officials said the Air Force has also committed eight C-130 cargo planes to carry relief supplies to the affected areas.

Of course the US is to decide how it may spend the money it lends from China and Japan. But would it not be wiser to use that money to buy some international leverage through real aid instead of sending the useless schoolyard bully’s muscles?

What a wasted opportunity.

Let me tell you more about what has kept me so busy at work in the past couple of months.

What I have worked on has been the financing of the acquisition of 6 wind farms in Spain, for a total amount of EUR 195 M. (That’s the financed portion, the total value of the transaction was approx. EUR 235 M, the rest, about EUR 40 M, being brought by my client). For that kind of money, you buy, in that case, 158 MW of capacity, generating about 350 GWh per year.

Cont. reading: Don Quixote meets Wall Street

One of my idols, Susan Sontag, died today, 71 years old, of cancer in a New York hospital.

Susan Sontag on 9/11 in The New Yorker:

Where is the acknowledgment that this was not a "cowardly" attack on "civilization" or "liberty" or "humanity" or "the free world" but an attack on the world’s self-proclaimed superpower, undertaken as a consequence of specific American alliances and actions? How many citizens are aware of the ongoing American bombing of Iraq? And if the word "cowardly" is to be used, it might be more aptly applied to those who kill from beyond the range of retaliation, high in the sky, than to those willing to die themselves in order to kill others. In the matter of courage (a morally neutral virtue): whatever may be said of the perpetrators of Tuesday’s slaughter, they were not cowards.

From Susan Sontag’s Friedenspreis acceptance speech:

.. what saved me as a schoolchild in Arizona, waiting to grow up, waiting to escape into a larger reality, was reading books, books in translation as well as those written in English.

To have access to literature, world literature, was to escape the prison of national vanity, of philistinism, of compulsory provincialism, of inane schooling, of imperfect destinies and bad luck. Literature was the passport to enter a larger life; that is, the zone of freedom.

Literature was freedom. Especially in a time in which the values of reading and inwardness are so strenuously challenged, literature is freedom.

Related Links:
Official Website
Wikipedia

In view of the tragic (and still growing) toll of yesterday’s earthquake, and considering the likelihood that it will happen again, possibly on an even larger scale (think Tokyo or San Andreas), it is high time to declare a war on natural catastrophes and take all necessary measures, including military, to prevent another such catastrophe from striking our shores ever again.

more …

Cont. reading: It’s time for a “War on Catastrophes”

Moral Cowardice Prevents Winning the War
Thursday December 23, 2004

Mosul, Iraq–The blame for the murder of 15 Iraqis in Mosul yesterday lies not only with the American occupation forces who initiated the attack, but also with the Iraqi resistance’ suicidal policies, said Mullah Ya Ibn Rand, supervising teacher ot the Mosul Philosphical Accademy. "The American would have been crushed long ago, and yesterday’s attacks averted, were it not for Iraqi’s altruistic policy of placing the lives of American civilians on American soil above its own self-defense.

"Iraq must competely destroy the American social structures if we are to implement a non-threatening government in America," said Mullah Ya Ibn Rand. "This can be done, but to do so we must make the American government’s complicit civilian population–those who harbor and support these structures–pay for the violence that they abet. We must enforce their complete surrender to our will.

"Shamefully, the Iraqi resistance has been unwilling to make hostile American civilians pay for their crimes," said Mullah Ya Ibn Rand. "Time and again, it has treated Amercan lives on American soil as sacrosanct and Iraq’s security and resistance fighters as dispensable. It is in the name of sparing civilians that our fighters have been ordered to follow crippling rules of fighting only in Iraq that have cost hundreds of their lives. …

"To win this war," concluded Mullah Ya Ibn Rand, "we need a fundamental shift in our moral priorities. We need to see the resistance place the lives of Iraqis–including Iraqi fighters–above the lives of civilians in America. To those who insist that we continue to sacrifice for the sake of American civilians, I say that the death of 15 Iraqis yesterday, and the many more to come, are on your heads."

Adopted from: Link

BBC:

A huge earthquake has triggered surging sea waters across a wide area of south and east Asia, swamping villages and killing more than 500 people.

More than 400 people died in Sri Lanka and at least 150 were killed in India.

Deaths have also been reported in coastal Thailand and on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, believed to be near the centre of the powerful tremor.

The earthquake had a magnitude of 8.9, making it the biggest in 40 years and the fifth strongest since 1900.

There will probably be several thousand more people dead and a whole fleet of ships will be missed. The economic consequences will be huge.

Location Map

Tsunami Information

In Germany we do get our presents on Christmas eve. So now here I am – the proud owner of a huge Le Creuset cast iron pan and a Great School of Cooking book from the École de cuisine La Varenne. 

If you happen to pass through Hamburg during the next year or so, please drop by and let me serve you some North German spécialité.

They call Germans Krauts for a reason, but there is much more we serve and, while I am nipping an excellent Bourdaux, let me assure you, we do have some good beer to accompany a solit but delicate meal.

This festivity is said to mark a special guy’s birthday.

I personally do not feel a recurring birthday to be a special event. This is more like a winter solstice festivity and that is most probable where this special date originated from.

Important to me are the teachings this one guy did as a grown up. These teachings have been propagated as important parts of three major religious traditions. Other religious-philosophical traditions do acknowledge, if not the guy or his teachings, then their content as right and valuable.

So please lets try to acknowledge these collective wisdoms of humanity and aspire to keep them in mind any day.

To all of you a merry Christmas and may there be peace on earth.

I cannot seem to find this in the English speaking news, so here it is in French, as announced by Rumsfeld in Iraq today: there now are 150,000 US soldiers in Iraq (US, not coalition)

It’s more than it’s ever been, but will it be enough to make sure that there actually are elections?

And why is this not mentioned – and commented upon – in English-speaking news outlets, as the most significant part of the info provided by Rumsfeld in his trip to Iraq? Troop levels are not enough, but nevertheless inexorably go up. Is that a major case of too little, too late, or what?

Right now 1 Euro buys 1.3542 US$: Chart

Will we have a counter trend rally now, or will the US$ just dive through any defense?

In another thread barfly Pat (hat tip) pointed to a NBC news report "Web video teaches terrorists to make bomb vest".

Reluctantly using Internet Explorer, one can see the report online. The accompanying text says:

Posted in a militant Islamic chat room three days ago, a stunningly detailed 26-minute video on how to make a sophisticated suicide bomb vest, along with a demonstration of its kill range, using a mannequin.

…

The person who posted the note and video on the Internet called himself "terrorist007."

The 2:40 long report shows a few scenes from the video and has two experts commenting on it.

There are three chunks of thoughts and doubts I have about this report.

The first chunk is through the described posting of the video:

• You can not post videos in a chatroom, not even in a "militant chatroom". You may, in theory, be able to post videos on messageboards, usenet or website comments. But do you know of any messageboard, usenet or website that would allow an anonymous commentator to post a 25 megabyte binary file?
• If this was not posted by an anonymous commentator, it must have been posted by someone in contact with that site’s owner. That site does have an Internet Protocol address which you can see while downloading the video. Anybody can just ask here who has control of that IP number and site and who is the Internet Service Provider hosting it.
• So where is that site, who is its owner and who did load up that video? Would this not be a good and easy-to-do story for the by-lined NBC investigative unit? Would not any secret service in this world step on the toes of that site’s owner within 24 hours?

Second thoughts go to the experts NBC uses to comment on that video:

• Rick Francona is ex(?)-CIA and ex-Military. He is a seasoned Middle East culture expert:

Lt Col Francona traveled extensively in combat areas as an observer of Iraqi military operations against Iranian forces, and flew sorties with the Iraqi air force.

and sells a book. A review says:

Francona’s best anecdote involves his role as translator during Schwarzkopf’s negotiations with the Iraqis at the end of the war:

"Good morning, sir," Francona tells an arriving Iraqi general. "I am Major Francona from General Schwarzkopf’s staff. If you will step out of the car, I will take you to meet the general, and we can begin."

The Iraqi just sits there, glowering. So Francona, agitated by his recalcitrance, leans in closer and says, in Arabic slang, "Get out of the car, [expletive]."

• Evan Kohlmann is a Terror Expert and has published a book and a few pieces for the neocon National Review. He has a certificate (four courses) from Georgetown University, was co-president of the Georgetown Israel Association and now has his own terror consulting shop at GlobalTerrorAlert.com. There he has also posted parts of the video not shown in the CBS news report (see the 12/20/04 entry).
• Are these experts really experts on Middle East culture, or video making or suicide bomb fabrication? Are these experts CIA assets, or book sellers or NBC paid talking heads? Did Kohlmann, who posted parts of the video two days before NBC published the story, pass the video to them? Where did he get it from?

Third round of thoughts is to the video itself :

• A man in a US(?) camouflage jacket shows how to put some stuff into a special vest, how to put some glue(?) from a can (with Latin letters on it) on a sheet of explosives(?) and metal balls and how to fix detonators(?) to that vest.
• Large parts of both video excerpts are showing at least two test explosions with such vests. Each of the test explosions is filmed through at least three cameras. The tests involve some 30 human shaped targets made from metal sheets and a mannequin figure each.
• Who, in camouflage, has the resources and need to make a video with such extensive, professional tests, with three-camera-test-documentation and special made metal dummy targets? Isn’t this more likely a counter-terrorist weapon analysis and damage evaluation video than an easy to distribute "how-to" paper on bomb making?

Could the video be a real terrorist video? Yes, it could be. Would a jihad trainer make a  traceable post of 25 megabytes professional made video with the pseudonym terrorist007? Well ahh, ehemm, may be.

But why is NBC underlying all of the report with some Sowjet sounding marching music? Why, when showing steps the video is alleged to describe, do they "smuggle in" a still picture about “mixing explosives” (the one without Arabic subtext)?

How, if your boss said "ultimately the Wild West [of the Internet] must give way to governance and control." and gave you unlimited resources, would this fit your (Dis)Information Warfare campaign and agenda?

So many questions. Where is my tin foil hat again?

Yesterday anti-US-forces in Iraq reported the attack in Mosul killing some 24 and wounding some 60 within a US base was done by a suicide bomber.
The news until this morning reported about a rocket or mortar attack. Now ABCnews says suicide bomber.

Citing unnamed sources, ABC reported that investigators at the U.S. base in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul found remnants of a torso and a suicide vest – probably a backpack – meant to carry explosives.

Meanwhile the revenge has started:

U.S. forces sealed off entire districts of the Iraqi city of Mosul on Wednesday, blocking bridges and raiding homes in a hunt for suspects after an attack that killed 18 Americans and four other people.

…

Witnesses said U.S. forces, backed by Iraqi National Guards, sealed off neighborhoods in western and southeastern Mosul and raided homes. "They’re looking in the areas that are known hotspots," one resident in the west of the city said.

William Lind sees Fallujah as a Little Stalingrad:

Operationally, Fallujah, like Stalingrad, proved to be a trap. It led us to concentrate so many of our few combat troops in one place that the insurgency was able to make major gains in other, more important places. It again drew a glaring contrast between how America fights – by pouring in firepower – and the stated aim of the American invasion of Iraq, liberating the Iraqi people. You cannot liberate people by destroying their homes, their jobs and their cities. If operational art is the art of linking tactical actions to strategic goals, American generals have once again shown the world that they have no operational skill – a situation that is typical of a Second Generation military.

Will Mosul now become a bigger Stalingrad?
 

News + view + opinions

Side note: I would like to post more of your writings at the Moon. Please send anything you feel to be appropriate to my email address on the About page.

ACLU, through a FOIA request, has received some more FBI internal emails regarding Department of Defense "interrogation techniques" in Guantanamo and Iraq.

If there were any questions left, where the torture orders originated, these documents do make it clear beyond any doubt.

From: … (FBI)
To: … (FBI)
…
This instruction begs the question of what constitutes "abuse". We assume this does not include lawful interrogation techniques authorized by Executive Order. We are aware that prior to the revision in policy last week, an Executive Order signed by President Bush authorized the following interrogation techniques among others sleep "management", use of MWD (military working dogs), "stress positions" such as half squats, "environmental manipulation" such as the use of loud music, sensory deprivation through the use of hoods, etc. We assume the OGC instructions does not include the reporting of these authorized interrogation techniques, and that the use of these techniques does not constitute "abuse".
Email from "On scene Commander–Baghdad.” (pdf)

To better imagine the techniques authorized and signed by President Bush into the Executive Order this report is helpful:

From: … (FBI)
To: … (FBI)

As requested, here is a brief summary of what I observed at GTMO

On a couple of occasions, I entered interview rooms to find a detainee chained hand and foot in a fetal position to the floor, with no chair, food, or water. Most times they had urinated or defecated on themselves, and had been left there for 18 – 24 hours or more. On one occasion, the air conditioning had been turned down so far and the temperature was so cold in the room, that the barefooted detainee was shaking with cold. When I asked the MP’s what was going on, I was told that interrogators from the day prior had ordered this treatment, and the detainee was not to be moved. On another occasion the A/C had been turned off, making the temperature in the unventilated room probably well over 100 degrees. The detainee was almost unconsciousness on the floor, with a pile of hair next to him. He had apparently been literally pulling his own hair out throughout the night. On another occasion, not only was the temperature unbearably hot, but extremely loud rap music was being played in the room, and had been since the day before, with the detainee chained hand and foot in the fetal position on the tile floor.

Any question, feel free to call or ask via email
E-mail from REDACTED to REDACTED (pdf)

Newsweek reports on a September 2001 memo of the Office of the Legal Council that was just Friday silently posted at the Justice Department’s website.

The memo, written by "Geneva does not apply" law Professor John Yoo, concludes (emph. added):

.. the President has the plenary constitutional power to take such military actions as he deems necessary and appropriate …

Military actions need not be limited to those individuals, groups, or states that participated in the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon: the Constitution vests the President with the power to strike terrorist groups or organizations that cannot be demonstrably linked to the September 11 incidents, but that, nonetheless, pose a similar threat to the security of the United States and the lives of its people, whether at home or overseas.

The footnote to the above sentence says:

But we do not think that the difficulty or impossibility of establishing proof … bars the President from taking such military measures as, in his best judgment, he thinks necessary or appropriate to defend the United States from terrorist attacks. In the exercise of his plenary power to use military force, the President’s decisions are for him alone and are unreviewable.

Is there any need left for an expensive Congress and a Supreme Court if "the President’s decisions are for him alone and are unreviewable"?

There is said to be a rift between the Israeli Defense Ministry Director General Amos Yaron and the Pentagon’s Doug Feith. Feith calls for the resignation of Yaron because misleading him on (read: lying about) Israeli repair (read: upgrade) of a specific Chinese weapon system with US technology. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper has even canceled a trip to Israel because he would not meet Yaron.

Searching Google News for the story we find reports in Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Zaman Turkey, Pakistan Daily Times, Asia Times, BBC and many many other non-US media.

In the US only the Moonies Washington Times has a UPI brief on the story.
Nothing in the New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Los Angeles Times, Knight Ridder, and any TV news site that I can find.

Is this piece of Likudnik laundry too dirty for the US public?