Not the election of Kerry so far.

But it does not look good. As projected, this most probably will be decided in courtrooms (to be precise – in backrooms of courtrooms) and that is where the Republicans have the advantage.

The beacon of democracy has lost some more of the light it once had. Irrational electoral college rules, defect and uncontrollable machines, thousands of lawyers and partisan selected judges make people around the world shake their head.

What’s coming now?

Iraq is a mess and will be worse in January/February 2005. There are no good chances. A win for the US is impossible – to loose is unacceptable for the US majority – escalation is probable. The only sure thing – more people will die violently there and elsewhere. The social agenda that will be legislated during the coming four years will deepen the divide we are already seeing. The world economy is at stall speed with all signs pointing down – even with a possible end-year DOW rally – no win possible here.

Bill Fleckenstein (pay-site), a bearish but successful, fund manager commented yesterday:

I believe that in the next four years, a lot of hopes and dreams are going to be shattered, and hearts will be broken. In my opinion, the winning party this time will perhaps lose for the next couple decades. So, the silver lining may go to the losing party, as it may only have to wait four years for a chance to reign supreme for a while.

We will not be sure who is the future President of the US for some more days. But we can be sure that some damage is done – more may be coming.

It is a cold wet foggy day here. Winter is at the doorstep.

(8:53am – after a walk at the harbourside let me add) And following winter it’s spring.