Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 29, 2004
Proliferation

Finally Iran agreed to stop – for now – their Uranium enrichment program and the IAEA has verified this. The deal, with Germany, France and the UK, underlines that Iran has the right to enrich Uranium and that this is a voluntary step.

The US is obviously not happy. The US delegate at the IAEA immediately claimed the United States reserves all of its options with respect to Security Council consideration of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This would be possible if Iran would endanger "international peace and security."

US army’s General John Abizaid was more explicit: "Why the Iranians would want to move against us in an overt manner that would cause us to use our air or naval power against them would be beyond me," he said. It is beyond the Iranians also, as they have not issued any kind of threat.

Abizaid added "If you ever even contemplate our nuclear capability, it should give everybody the clear understanding that there is no power that can match the United States militarily." Does pointing to the use of nuclear weapons help "international peace and security"?

For sure there are some intelligent people thinking how to further pressure Iran. Also for sure Iranians are looking into alternative ways to get some military operational nuclear capacity. This given, the current conflict of words will escalate.

Let me propose a quite simple and effective way to deescalate the issue.

Iran sould invite a brigade of EU ground troops to help the IAEA to control their nuclear installations. Because terrorists could try to attack these by air, the Russians should chip in an air defense regiment. The Chinese could help with some patrol boats against possible pirate acts.

Finally the US could be sure that everything is under control and Abizaid could keep his nukes from "proliferating".

Comments

All the numbers are rough, off the cuff; precision is not important here…
The US has some 130 thousand troops in Iraq.
The pop. of Iraq is more than 25 million.
New York, with a pop. of somewhat under 20 million has about 50,000 police and law-and order types (rough – who is counted? etc.)
New York is not at war, not being occupied, and New Yorkers are quite educated, civilized and law abiding – not in any kind of revolt. Not throwing bombs about, sniping from rooftops, or kidnapping CEOs, at any rate.
The US has somewhat under (around?) half a million military deployed world wide. Apparently, no or not much reserves, pending a draft. Those guys are all out there…
Iran has a population of (over ..) 66 million. It has a military manpower availability of between 10 and 20 million.
For sure, many other factors play a role.

Posted by: Blackie | Nov 29 2004 18:41 utc | 1

The numbers game: Policing an Election and so the excuses start.
The United States military commander in northern Iraq has cast some doubt over whether elections would be possible in the northern city of Mosul under present conditions.
Brigadier General Carter Hamm was speaking after several attacks on members of the Iraqi security forces, as well as recent attacks by insurgents on police stations in the city.
Brigadier General Hamm has stressed the importance of the role the Iraqi police have to play.
“The Iraqi police by design were the cornerstone of security for the elections,” he said.
“Without the numbers of Iraqi police that we would like to have, it significantly increases the level of difficulty of establishing the environment that we need for elections.”

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Nov 29 2004 20:00 utc | 2

@CP – who wants an election, except -maybe- Sistani? Give him some extra influence and he will probably back off too.

Posted by: b | Nov 29 2004 20:10 utc | 3

b, Chalabi will go down as a hero if he pulls all this off.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Nov 29 2004 20:49 utc | 4

China-Iran tango threatens US leverage

Posted by: Last Tango in Tehran | Nov 29 2004 21:15 utc | 5