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Civil War in Ukraine?
BBC reports:
Officials in several Ukrainian cities have refused to accept the outcome of Sunday’s presidential election.
Tens of thousands of protesters have rallied to contest the official victory for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, amid Western concern over the vote.
Opposition challenger Viktor Yushchenko has told supporters to stage a civil disobedience campaign.
But central security authorities are warning that they are ready to put down any lawlessness "quickly and firmly".
The "KGB candidate" incumbant Yanukovych has officially won. The "CIA candidate" Yushchenko has probably lost. There are concerns about election irregularities that naturally would not happen in any really democratic state.
[OECD claimed] violations included a continuing "media bias" in favour of Mr Yanukovych and intimidation of observers and voters.
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Exit polls earlier suggested that Mr Yushchenko had been on course for victory with a lead of at least six percentage points.
His supporters say they do not believe the official turnout figure of 96% in eastern Ukraine.
During the campaign, Mr Yushchenko, prime minister between 1999 and 2001, claimed to have been the victim of intimidation and dirty tricks, including an alleged poisoning attempt.
His critics portray him as an American puppet who will do anything to gain power, including inciting civil unrest.
I have no firm opinion on what is happening in Ukraine, but I do prefer any nonviolent outcome, even if it is not a 100% certified democratic solution.
Calorie Tax
U.S. agribusiness now produces about 3,800 calories of food a day for every American – about 500 more calories than it produced 30 years ago (and at least a thousand more calories than most of us need to consume daily). So how did business deal with the problem of oversupply? By persuading us to eat more.
Too much stuffing
St. Louis-based Hardee’s said its new burger boasts two 1/3-pound slabs of Angus beef, four strips of bacon, three slices of American cheese and some mayonnaise — all on a buttered, toasted, sesame seed bun.
The "Monster Thickburger" will cost about $5.49, Hardee’s said. But chowing down on the 1,420-calorie burger, which contains 107 grams of fat, will cost around $7 with fries and a soda.
Hardee’s unveils new ‘Monster’
Obesity-related illnesses cost the U.S. economy an estimated $120 billion a year in medical costs and lost productivity. (first article)
Proposal: A $0.001 health tax per calorie. With 2,500 calories per day per person this would result in $273 billion in revenue per year which could be spend to finance basic healthcare for all.
Any takers?
Unionize!
Pizza drivers seek national union
About 600 drivers nationwide have signed up for the free union, and he feels momentum gathering for more unionization votes.
"Despite the fact that we didn’t take the vote, just that it occurred is a major hurdle," he said. "It’s never happened before in the history of pizza delivery driving."
Lockwood said pizza drivers make $5.50 to $6 an hour, plus tips, and are reimbursed 50 to 75 cents per delivery for gas costs, no matter how far the delivery is.
Corporate profits as a share of GDP are at 25 year record high, labor compensation as a share of GDP is at a 25 year low (Fed St. Louis, PDF, page 21). Time for unions to come back into power.
Unions tend to be protectionists (steel in the 80s), they develop a bureaucracy, they strike firms into unfulfillable long term promises. Now the UAW cries for a public bailout of the car industries pension obligations.
Unions are the only instrument to fight for fair compensation when there is slack in the labour market. Real wages are sinking and plenty a people are looking for news jobs. Without unionisation workers have no chance to raise income.
With speculator and management benefits coupled to short term share prices, unionized workers are the only party with a real long term interest in modernization and competitiveness.
To counter the neo-liberal trend, join a union. If you deliver pizzas, contact www.PizzaDeliveryDrivers.org now. And by the way, please bring me one big Siciliana and a bottle of Coke and don´t you dare to raise the price I have to pay.
Iranian Problems
Iran needs to develop its economical, technical and social base, but is confronted with a series of problems.
Iran produces only 1.77 MWh of urgently needed electricity per year per inhabitant. The US produces 12.4 MWh* per year per inhabitant. To increase its electricity production Iran prepares to use its resource of natural uranium and to establish an IAEA controlled cival nuclear program.
While the US recently announced plans to fly to Mars, Iran only now tries to launch its first own satellite into a low orbit by modifying military missiles.
Drug addiction is a major problem in Iran. There are at least 2 million drug users in the country. With opium production in neighboring Afghanistan increased by 63% in 2004 to record amounts, this is likely to further endager the Iranian society.
There are even more concerns. As blogger Abu Aardvark explains:
The country is ever more dominated by conservatives and advocates of political religion. There was a time in the 1990s when the country seemed to be moving in a more liberal direction, but those days are long past. Conservatives and religious movements have spent the last few years consolidating their control over the major political institutions – the executive branch, the legislative branch, the judiciary, even the media. Indeed, in the most recent elections, the conservatives routed their liberal counterparts. These conservatives and their religious base express open contempt for liberals and their values. Pretty much the only remaining opposition seems to be among university students and among some liberal newspapers, but their limited power doesn’t really threaten the ruling coalition. What’s more, the country has recently been very active inside of Iraq, which threatens important national security interests. Leading conservative figures, including some known for very close ties to senior government leaders, have openly declared their hostility and have even spoken about the need for military action. Even relatively moderate foreign policy officials have been sounding pretty hawkish lately.
Israel has declared Iran to be its No. 1 enemy and is lobbying the US into attacking Iran. With the current political developments in the United States, described by Abu Aardvark above, Iran now is not only confronted by economic and social problem, but also has to fear an immediate attack. Further escalation looks inevitable.
I am now reestablishing my long position in crude oil. — *Update: corrected decimal sign, thx Jérôme
Some Questions
by DeAnander in the last open thread:
I’m not feeling real hopeful — reading the latest Adbusters always seems to send me into a pit of despair, even when they’re trying to be inspiring — as with the current year end issue.
However I will wave a modestly hopeful questioning essay (typesetters tip: scroll down to read it) by Greg Bates, on the issues of monoculture, diversity, and punctuated equilibrium.
Bates suggests that in the complete, incompetent meltdown of the Dem Party in the US, its inability to distinguish itself from its ‘competitor’ the Repubs, may be the moment of opportunity for the formation of diverse new political parties. He argues, as I read the text, that only the meltdown and utter failure of the Dems will create this window of opportunity.
I think this has a lot to do with what’s called "the investment trap" in games theory and investment jargon — where the individual or consortium cannot abandon a losing strategy because they are unwilling to let go of the investment they already have in it. They are throwing good money after bad, as the saying goes, because they cannot bear to admit that the bad money is already lost. They can’t cut their losses and get over it. They probably have to lose N times the original investment (I’m sure someone has written papers on this!) before, finally, painfully, they admit that it was a mistake in the first place.
I fear that progressives in the US have got to this point with the Dem Party. Three terms’ worth of betrayal so far and counting. Open question — and my mind is not firmly made up on this — is it really beyond repair? Can it be salvaged? Is there any hope of a massive reform of the party, or is it doomed as Bates suggests to drift further and further to the right, chasing the Nuovos Fascistas into the sunset?
One other question for gambling types. If the economic crash predicted by our pessimists (and I’m more or less one of ’em) comes to pass, then what will the reaction of the US populace be? An ugly ethnic/nationalist fascist reaction, blaming everyone in sight — Arabs, Jews, enviros, Blacks, Asians, women, China, the EU — for the disaster? Or a Game Over, Reset moment, a re-evaluation, and a New New Deal? Both?
Greenspan Attacks US Dollar
In a brains off approach to the US Dollar the worst Fed Chairman ever today ambushed his currency.
"It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point," Greenspan said. "But when, through what channels and from what level of the dollar? Regrettably, no answer to those questions is convincing,"
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Reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit, Greenspan said, would be an important action to boost U.S. savings.
Greenspans remarks followed negative US Dollar remarks by Treasury Secretary Snow earlier this week. Gold closed at $446.40/ounce today.
My opinion on the last weeks Dollar and tax plan news is not yet written out. So for now just one comment I stumbled across and find to contain a grain of truth:
This has nothing to do with sound economic policy. No, it is pure petty payback to Europe. Bush wants to strangle their recovery and growth. He will galdly let the dollar fall, and fall and fall, and consequences be damn, as long a those who didn’t support him are ruined. So what if a couple of our "allies" get hurt in the process? This is just pure spite. Bush is famous for it and at some point the world is going to have to start calling a spade a spade. Bush is playing economic warfare. I doubt if he even cares what happens to the United States or what his dollar and economic policies call down upon the rest of us, or the world. He and his wealthy friends and loyal administration minions and supporters will be protected. The rest of us can rot.
3rd Iraq Thread
Off Topic Open Thread
Bring Out Your Dead
picture by beq
Title: Bring Out Your Dead
Artist: beq
 Click on image to enlarge (120k) Click here for an uncropped image (220k)
I had a little bird, Its name was Enza. I opened the window, And in-flu-enza. The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
Advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.
"Rebuilding America’s Defenses" – The September 2000 PNAC Report (PDF)
Treasonous Bastard
CIA asset Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is "very concerned" about the fatal shooting by a U.S. Marine of a wounded and apparently unarmed man in a Fallujah mosque, his office said Wednesday. … ".. I don’t think that (the incident) in any way is a reflection on the quality and caliber of absolutely fine young servicemen and women we have serving here in Iraq," [US ambassador Negroponte] said.
Cont. reading: Treasonous Bastard
Double Bind
CIA Director Goss criticizes in a memorandum to CIA employees:
Intelligence-related issues have become the fodder of partisan food fights and turf-power skirmishes.
and states in the same memo:
As agency employees we do not identify with, support or champion opposition to the administration or its policies.
Gregory Bateson in "Steps To an Ecology of Mind" cited in The Double Bind remarks:
We hypothesize that there will be a breakdown in any individual’s ability to discriminate between Logical Types whenever a double bind situation occurs. The general characteristics of this situation are the following:
- When the individual is involved in an intense relationship; that is, a relationship in which he feels it is vitally important that he discriminate accurately what sort of message is being communicated so that he may respond appropriately.
- And, the individual is caught in a situation in which the other person in the relationship is expressing two orders of message and one of these denies the other.
- And, the individual is unable to comment on the messages being expressed to correct his discrimination of what order of message to respond to, i.e., he cannot make a metacommunicative statement.
Employees(1) of the CIA reading this memo(2) and criticizing(3) it would most probably get fired. So the main international security agency of the United States now collectivly goes into schizophrenia? That means trouble for the country and unfortunatly also for others.
Bateson:
Finally, the complete set of ingredients is no longer necessary when the victim has learned to perceive his universe in double bind patterns. Almost any part of a double bind sequence may then be sufficient to precipitate panic or rage.
2nd Iraq Thread
Psy Ops
A few days ago, Amnesty International issued a carefully worded statement about the situation in Fallujah.
Amnesty International is deeply concerned that the rules of war protecting civilians and combatants have been violated in the current fighting in Falluja. Dozens of civilians have reportedly been killed during the fighting between US and Iraqi forces and insurgents. Amnesty International fears that civilians have been killed, in contravention of international humanitarian law, as a result of failure by parties to the fighting to take necessary precautions to protect non-combatants. The humanitarian situation in the city is said to be precarious.
The meme of war crime was coming into the public play. The occupation of the Falluja General Hospital, the bombing of a clinic at the begin of the assault, the interruption of water and electricity, turning back civilians into a warzone, unproportional use of force, turning back Red Crescent deliveries for civilians are war crimes.
These and other deeds are violations of the various laws of wars codified in the Geneva conventions and the United States Uniform Military Code of Justice. These deeds were ordered at high levels of the military and civilian hierarchy.
With all this done and some questions coming up, how can one keep the people and the media away from further researching and reporting this?
The Abu Ghraib tested and working method: pre-emptively point to the ant on the ground so the public eyes are driven away from the huge gorilla just in front of them.
Marine kills injured prisoner in Iraqi mosque is now the official ant on the ground everybody is supposed to look at.
The U.S. military is investigating the killing of a wounded and apparently unarmed Iraqi prisoner inside a mosque during combat operations here, the Defense Department told NBC News on Monday.
If there is a public outcry, the "investigation" may actually lead to some problems for a single young marine, if not, it will be buried.
There will be further reports about this in today’s and the following news cycles. Scartch your head and keep in mind that the incident was filmed by an embedded cameraman on Saturday and released to the press pool only Monday and the Defense Department had its statement well prepared. No TV-station so far has shown the actual shooting – it is blacked out – only the sound is there.
We don´t know if this incident was a war crime. But we do know that the big stuff happend and that it constitutes deliberate and systematic violation of the basic core Geneva conventions
To play up this small incident is pure psychological operations for the home front. Keep the eyes on the gorilla. He is the one doing real harm.
Powell Resigns
Powell resigns, Zell Miller heading State?
There is but one man to whom I am willing to entrust [my families] future, and that man’s name is George W. Bush.
Zell Miller
Update: Others out are: Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, Education Secretary Rod Paige, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, Attorney General John Ashcroft, Commerce Secretary Donald Evans. It is pretty save to assume Armitage will leave State too.
Broadcast Flag
In November 2003 the Federal Communication Commission issued an order to "protect" Digital TV broadcasts from unauthorized copying and distribution.
The Commission approved this rule mandating hardware vendors implement technology that recognizes a "flag" in digital broadcasts. The flag is intended to prevent the "indiscriminate" transmission over IP networks of copyrighted digital content. The FCC says vendors must comply with the broadcast flag requirements in all equipment by July 1, 2005. … The flag itself represents a series of bits, several of which define the descriptor tag and length with others reserved for "optional additional redistribution control information that may be defined in the future."
Public Knowledge and the EFF are fighting the order in court. The FCC filed a brief that claims:
Under the Communications Act’s definitions, the terms "radio communication" and "wire communication" are defined broadly to include not merely the transmission of the communication over the air or by wire, but also all incidental "instrumentalities, facilities, apparatus and services" that are used for the "receipt, forwarding and delivery" of such transmissions.
As Susan Crawford explains in her blog
The thing is, this rule doesn’t merely affect TV receiving equipment. It affects everything that RECEIVES digital files from TV receiving equipment as well — every device inside any home network. It affects the open-platform PC.
As your PC may be used as an apparatus to receipt, forwarding and delivery of digital TV the FCC will require all PC manufacturer to implement a bullet proofed copyright protection system that recognizes a Broadcast Flag in any digital data stream.
Given that the FCC also cares for Obscenity, Indecency, & Profanity it is easy to imagine that in future the "digital broadcast" of the content of this blog – without an FCC approved broadcast flag – may not reach your PC or, if it does, may not be displayed.
Meanwhile the economic argument of piracy hurting the sales of digital content can be seriously doubted. The Big Picture even finds some hints that "piracy" via P2P networks is being used as a successful marketing instrument. "Accidental" prereleasing of songs by some in the industry, caring so much about copy protection, seems to help their CD sales.
Profoundly Disturbing Trend
Mr. Ashcroft warned against "excessive judicial encroachment on functions assigned to the president" in his first major address since his resignation was announced Tuesday.
Mr. Ashcroft told the conservative Federalist Society during a Washington meeting that a "profoundly disturbing trend" among some federal court judges interfered with the president’s obligations under international treaties and agreements.
… Mr. Ashcroft .. said that "intrusive judicial oversight and second-guessing of presidential determinations" put the nation’s national security at risk at a time of war, adding that "risks of invasive oversight and micromanagement" had become "all too familiar." Ashcroft rips federal judges on national security
Yes Mr. Ashcroft, there is a trend some do find profoundly disturbing. This speech was just another small step, preparing the grounds for other small steps to come. As you say, a profoundly disturbing trend.
To live in the process is absolutely not to notice it — please try to believe me — unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, ‘regretted.’
…
Believe me this is true. Each act, each occasion is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join you in resisting somehow. From They Thought They Were Free : The Germans, 1933-45 cited at ThirdReich.net
Forceful Education
Police Use Taser
The school’s principal called 911 after the child broke a picture frame in her office and waved a piece of glass to keep people away from him.
When two Miami-Dade officers arrived the scene the boy had already cut himself under his eye and cut a large gash in his hand.
The officers tried to reason with the boy, but when he started cutting his own leg, they shocked him with a Taser. They then grabbed him to prevent him from hurting himself when he hit the floor and called an ambulance.
Miami Police say the Taser was necessary to prevent the boy from seriously harming himself with the glass.
The boy is 6-years old.
Under the Same Sun has more.
Your Open Thread
Iraq Thread
Please post news/comments on the current Iraq situation here.
Collapse of the Empire?
by remembereringgiap
the end of the beginning of the end of the empire
finally, the iraquis are learning as the vietnamese did before them – that for all the firepower the armies of america are not invulnerable. that they can be destroyed & that they can be fought & there can be a victory against them
this reminds me of the only armies that really fought in any real sense the invading armies of germany – those of the soviet union. in the first instance they were frightened – genuinely frightened. this army had already devoured half of europe & they were practically, strategically & tactically in awe of this force
but when their first battles – battles the russian did not win militarily – they began to understand practically – that this army could be fought & a victory could be won against it & it was not so long after that they began their first victories. then victory after victory followed – with only a few pockets of fanatic nazis able to resist the force of the russian people
in iraq today – they are finding a similar truth. this massacring army. this army that happily hands out collective punishment to the iraquis. this army that murders its way north & south, east & west with the help of blairs batallions. this army that drops tonne & tonnes & tonnes of bombs on iraq cannot win. will not win
the armies of resistance do not need either zaqarwi or ben laden – they need their own experience – the experience of a rich & cultured people fighting against the barbaric battallions of the ‘coalition’ forces – which are american by any name
the iraquis are learning a lesson that in the battle of the flea – the larger force can be defeated. & it will be defeated. & i see a humiliating defeat for the americans. if not today, tommorrow & if not tommorrow then next day & certainly that day will come & it will mark the end of the beginning of the end of that empire because that empire like all others will fall
the decline & fall of the american empire is as certain to me today as was the victory of the tet offensive would be translated sooner or later into a real defeat of the invading american armies
still steel
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