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Open Thread
Michael E. Lewitt, The HCM Market Letter:
On Friday, November 19, Alan Greenspan made his latest attempt to quell financial market speculation. Speaking at a European Banking Congress in Europe, Mr. Greenspan made it very clear that interest rates are going to continue to rise. Despite the market reaction to Mr. Greenspan’s words (it sold off a bit), one can’t help but feel that we’ve heard these warnings before and that they will continue to fall on deaf ears. Mr. Greenspan’s credibility has been undermined by his track record of easing rates at the slightest hint of real (Long Term Capital Management) or imagined (Y2K) crises, as well as statements claiming that he couldn’t identify a bubble even as it was blowing up in his face.
Mr. Greenspan’s warning came just a few days after Congress raised the U.S. federal debt ceiling to the 13-digit number above [8,180,000,000,000], and just as the U.S. dollar breached the $1.30 mark against the Euro for the first time (and for what appears to be a sustained period). A clear pattern has emerged – higher interest rates, lower dollar, slower economic growth, higher oil prices – but the benchmark-driven financial markets don’t seem to be paying much attention.
As President Bush II enters his second term, he is faced with rising oil prices and a weakening currency (not to mention nuclear challenges in Iran and North Korea and worrisome signs of political backwardization in Russia). Second terms are notoriously problematic, and circumstances certainly suggest that Mr. Bush could be in for a rough ride, particularly with respect to the economy. The surest contrary sign of trouble ahead may be the stock market rally that began immediately after the election – if nothing else, the stock market has shown itself to be particularly clueless as an arbiter of anything other than its own psychology. It used to be said that the stock market discounts tomorrow. With the proliferation of hedge funds (more and more of which are just glorified day traders) and other short-term traders, about the best that can be said is that the stock market is trying to discount the next ten minutes based on how things felt the last ten minutes.
Christopher Wood’s believes that “the re-election of Bush is US dollar bearish and gold bullish.”1 The unhappy truth, as astute observers such as Mr. Wood and Stephen Roach keep repeating, is that America is facing a period of almost inevitable decline as a consequence of chronic and acute economic imbalances and a political system that fails to deal with them. Mr. Wood and others speak of “America’s growing abuse of the US dollar’s privileged role as the reserve currency of the world.” The real question is whether Japan and China can even afford to let the dollar crack in view of their enormous dollar holdings, as well as the mercantile base of their economies. American hegemony may or may not be peaking, as HCM fears it is, but there is almost no question that the great symbol of that hegemony – the U.S. dollar – is likely to remain under pressure. […]
As The Bank Credit Analyst (November 2004, pp. 9-10) notes: “The dollar would probably have been in a meltdown a while ago but for large-scale dollar purchases by Asian central banks. These purchases have helped slow the dollar’s descent, but will not prevent a decline if private capital flows continue to diminish, as has been the case this year…We do not anticipate a dollar collapse any time soon because Asian central banks will continue to be buyers of last resort for the currency. Nonetheless, the path of least resistance is down and the best that can be hoped for is that it will remain a benign process with the dollar falling without forcing U.S. interest rates higher.”
In the aftermath of the election, talking heads spent countless hours discussing how divided the United States has become culturally and politically. But these so-called experts really missed the point – the culture and psychology of the United States have never been more united when it comes to matters of dollars and cents. A body politic claiming to have chosen its next leader based on stringent moral concerns continues to engage in fiscal profligacy that would make Donald Trump blush.2
The culture of debt has been so deeply instilled in Americans that it will require a true Armageddon event to dislodge it. HCM has no way of handicapping the probability of any such event. For the moment, the unwinding of the global debt bubble is likely to be a slow and tedious affair, interspersed with some brief sell-offs but managed by the Federal Reserve and Asian Central Banks that remain locked in a symbiotic dance of death. If they release their grasp on each other, they both will die. So they will continue to cling to each other and waltz in slow motion and pray that the dollar will deflate slowly, that fragile global demand trends will be sustained or at least not weaken, and that the Devil’s bargain they’ve made with each other can somehow be redeemed for cash. But if it is redeemed for cash, it won’t be in U.S. dollars.
Foreigners Still Jonesin’ for Dollar Assets
It is very clear that foreign buying of dollar-denominated assets is driving the U.S. markets higher. According to the U.S. Treasury, foreign appetite for U.S. corporate bonds reached record levels in September 2004. Net inflows into this sector reached $44.6bn, up from $26.5bn in August. Treasuries received inflows of $19.3bn in September compared to $14.6bn in September. Those of us who are bearish on corporate credit at today’s absurdly inflated levels need look no further than this data to understand where a lot of the buying is coming from.
The U.S. requires approximately $55bn each month, or $1.8bn each day, to fund its current account deficit. We are now half a year and 100 basis points into a Federal Reserve tightening cycle that HCM now believes has much further to run. The Euro has broken through $1.30 and foreign buyers are still piling into dollar assets (despite noises about diversifying their holdings). The world is awash in dollars, debt and speculation. Anticipating Mr. Greenspan’s comments quoted above, Peter Bernstein wrote in The Financial Times on November 17 that “as Herb Stein, the late economist, put it: ‘If something can’t go on forever, it won’t.’ Private capital inflows into the US are already shrinking. There is a point at which one or other central bank will cry ‘Enough!’ and the house of cards will fall in.” Mr. Bernstein is hardly an alarmist, and he has been warning for months that the current situation is unsustainable. He believes that the optimal solution would be a replay of the 1985 Plaza Accord – “an orderly appreciation of the main nondollar currencies against the dollar, which is a more benign method of curtailing America’s appetite for imports while spurring the development of domestic sources of growth in the rest of the world. Without such an accord, the outlook for an orderly dollar devaluation is dim.”
No such accord was reached at the European Economic Summit last weekend. But dollar weakness was abundant. Mr. Greenspan opined: “Given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point. International investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable.” The problem is that the markets don’t seem to believe the Fed Chairman. Or everybody figures they can get out of the market before the sell-down occurs. A crisis will not happen until there is a crisis. By then, it will be too late for many investors to get out of the way.
Posted by: Pat | Dec 1 2004 19:44 utc | 18
AIDS day… The outlook is desperate.
1) The WTO (147 countries) had agreed (Aug. 2003) to allow countries facing dire ‘sanitary’ situations to produce copies of anti-viral drugs. Cipla (India) developed, for ex., a tri-therapy in one pill, which reduced manufacturing costs and provided many other advantages.
Treatment with their pill was 20 to 30 times less costly than treatment in the ‘North.’ Few patients benefited (say, 5%) – still it was a great advance. The permission was to have been made permanent, but the WTO has held off. Permission expires on 1 jan 05, though apparently it may be revived, or at least discussed again later (March 05 or..?)
2) In 1995, developing countries obtained a ‘exception’ status to the rule that medical patents endure 20 years (from the WTO). They were thus able to develop ‘generic’ medication before time. Thailand, India, and Brasil did. That status expires – on Jan 1, 05.
These two agreements or permissions brought prices down. Roche’s *Viracept* (about 800 dollars a bottle in the North, 270 pills) was sold for (about) 150 dollars in the ‘advanced’ South, and about 50 dollars in Sub-Sahara Africa.
Now, these big Pharma Companies will be able to return to their previous nasty habits. Note: The big Pharma companies have, in the past, put pressure on the WHO to make it remove from the market some of the ‘generic’ drugs, based on the argument that their efficiency is not certain (despite the fact that they are copies, “bio equivalence” is not proven and FDA-style final tests – on humans – have not been run..) However, Cipla won two of those cases, which is good news – if of doubtful relevance as they will not be allowed to produce their medication any longer!
If you listen to Chirac (I only read a report of his pontifications on the topic) or Bush, they only talk of giving money (and reducing discrimination, etc. in the case of Chirac; of new rules for funding for Bush..etc.) they never mention these issues.
Cheap but creative campaigns for condom use would accomplish an enormous amount. Here, (CH, pop. 7 million), 111 people died of AIDS last year. Many judge that the determining factors are:
First, Prevention – free needles (turn in an old needle, you get a new one); condom propaganda (sale of condoms in high schools, pushing prostitutes to use them, etc.); social care for drug addicts (shoot up locales and free heroin, to break up the drug scene, ensure clean needles, and advise about sex..). Such campaigns are cheap.
Repression: making transmitting AIDS into a crime has worked wonders.
The last court case we had here, concluded yesterday – amply reported with all sex details in newspapers -concerned a Brasilian transvestite who did or did not infect a male client. The client paid extra for a non-protected ***, and the transvestite accepted. However, he proved that he did not know he was seropositive (or could not, reasonably, be judged to have know it) as he had tests every two months and the last was negative. The client could prove nothing.
Who sodomised whom came up in court, and remained a bit of a mystery, until the transvestite said – oh but we have the video of our sex! So the jury and the judge watched the video…
Finally, the judge threw the case out, saying that fault here was shared. The client knew the risks he was taking, and should not have offered extra pay..; the transvestite should not have accepted, though it was likely he didn’t realise he would infect anyone.
The point is, everyone reads the details in the papers.
–from newspaper reports, discussion at work..etc.
Posted by: Blackie | Dec 2 2004 19:31 utc | 45
Here in Geneva, the street has it that the various scandals whirling around the UN are bogus, trumped up by the Americans…After all, the US threw out the previous DG, Boutros Boutros Ghali..
Nation review of BBGs book
1) The oil for food scandal. The whole program was rife with smuggling and kickbacks – all over the horizon. Repressing free trade is mighty tough in some conditions! Saddam certainly collected a lot of ‘illegal’ funds, as he found a whole lot of covert buyers on the market. Including Halliburton (care of Cheney, through foreign subsidiaries..), and many many others. Whether UN personnel were directly involved, in the sense that they made money out skirting Rules they were supposed to enforce, is something I cannot judge, but consider very likely.
The sanctions on Iraq, pushed for by USuk, were the beginning of the rot. Hans von Sponek, his predecessor Denis Halliday, and many others, resigned from the UN in disgust. The UN nevertheless kept the sanctions going. In a peculiar way, its own existence was at stake in this matter. The USuk would not tolerate a lifting of sanctions; most everybody else was against the sanctions; the result was that hypocrisy became normal, secret sanction-busting was permitted, became the norm. Corruption was OK! This suited the US, who could then continue to destroy Iraq, and at the same time trade. And it suited everyone else too.
2) Sexual harrassment scandals within the UN. These are endemic but have not until recently hit the mainstream press. (Ruud Lubbers, etc.) UN employees have less protection than many workers in the EU – no Union, no proper contracts, etc. The trans-national, or international community, has developed the habit of considering itself above the petty conventions, rules, that regulate these relations in the North. With the mix of cultures, (sexual) harassment type scandals are in fact rife – they also present an oppo’ for employees to complain, make a stand, hit the press, etc.
3) Mistreatment of refugees (sex exploitation of children and young women by UN employees in refugee camps – West Africa..) certainly exists; it is an outcome of world politics, with its shoddy hypocrisy, its compromises, its mouthing of humanitarian principles, its political confusion. Put powerful male capos in charge of a hopeless situation where hundreds or thousands of women and children are lacking the basics to survive, where not enough money is being spent, not enough food is available, where there are no clear conventions or rules, the situation is hopeless, blocked (all the parties perceive this clearly..) and what do you get? The poor will sell what they have – their bodies – and the rich bosses will not resist.
Posted by: Blackie | Dec 3 2004 20:31 utc | 77
Here is a too-long cut/paste for DM and other skeptics, plus of course all of you who who like to open your minds to the otherworldly.
It is from Galacticdiplomacy, a site I recently found and have been reading a lot in lately. This piece is one of a rather long list of descriptions of many ET civilisations that have an interest in our welfare of Earth. Some of them come to help and some come to colonise or conquer. Quite a complex collection of conflicting worlds.
Anyway, given what we are now seeing in the behavior of govt, which has no earthly rationale, I thought some of you would be interested in studying up on some of the real forces at work here.
This part of the site can be found at –
http://www.galacticdiplomacy.com/GD-ET-Motivations-5.htm#-edn89
Suggest you read the whole thing including descriptions of several of the players. A quote follows:
Procyons
Most of the Rigelians who fled their planet traveled to the star system of Procyon to restart their civilization. Procyon is a binary star system about 11.4 light years from Earth, and it was apparently the fourth planet in this system that the Rigelians established their new colony. [81] According to Andrews, the colony of Procyon flourished until it became embroiled in sinister effort by the Grays that now populated Rigel to subvert Procyon. Khyla described the process adopted by the Grays in their subversion of Procyon:
The Grays began to visit us, first a few as ambassadors, then as specialists in various domains where their expertise could be useful to us, as participants in different programs that involved mutual collaboration, and finally as tourists. What had begun as a trickle became a flood, as they came in ever-increasing numbers, slowly but surely infiltrating our society at all levels, penetrating even the most secret of our elite power groups…. Just as on your planet they began by unobtrusively gaining control over key members of the CIA and KGB through techniques unknown to them, such as telepathic hypnosis that manipulates the reptilian levels of the brain, so on Procyon through the same techniques … they established a kind of telepathic hypnotic control over our leaders. Over our leaders and over almost all of us, because it was as if we were under a spell that was leading us to our doom, as if we were being programmed by a type of ritual black magic that we did not realize existed. [82]
Khyla went on to describe the eventual take over of Procyon by the Grays and the enslavement of most Procyons that did not escape. Using advanced time travel technology which involved ‘multidimensional consciousness’, something which the Grays apparently could not duplicate due to their degraded genetic bodies, a significant number of Procyons were able to escape and began a liberation war from the ‘remote corridors of time’. Significantly, the Procyons describe how some of their resistance techniques would be relevant to the situation on Earth:
… it would be suicidal to attempt to fight the Grays directly with the weapons now at your disposal. One must be rational in attempting to fight back, and understand the proper way to proceed. Your own consciousness is the most potent weapon that is available to you at the present time. The most effective way to fight the Grays is to change the level of your consciousness from linear thinking to multi-dimensional awareness…. They have the technology to throw your planet out of orbit, but there is one key ability that you have and they do not have: the ability to hold in mind imagery that inspires an individual to realize his or her direct personal connection to the source of all that is… That is your key to victory. [83]
According to Alex Collier, the Procyons have recently liberated their world from Gray influence and he describes the Procyons as currently “gung ho” when it comes to dealing with the Grays. [84]
In conclusion, the Procyons main activity is in effectively resisting the extraterrestrial subversion by developing a ‘multidimensional consciousness’, using mind imagery to protect oneself from extraterrestrial mind control, and monitoring unfriendly extraterrestrial activity. The global solutions that the Procyons can assist in include exposing extraterrestrial subversion, helping end global secrecy of the extraterrestrial presence, promoting multidimensional consciousness, deprogramming mind control, promoting universal human rights, and developing the internet and global communication.
– end quote –
I selected this piece for the line, “it would be suicidal to attempt to fight the Grays directly with the weapons now at your disposal.” Because that is right about the crux of our current quandry, “How can we defeat these MFs?” Nothing seems to work. Truth seems to do very little for us, at least not right now.
There are some more positive-sounding bits scattered here, indicating that in some opinions at least, the Grays are overstepping into failure, that we humans have powerful qualities that they do not, but it is clear that this is a fight to the finish so to speak. Serious stuff. The time frame extends into the millions of years for some of these peoples, but this crisis is coming to a head NOW.
The good news is that the solution is for us to expand our consciousness. Now that sounds like fun for a change.
Posted by: rapt | Dec 6 2004 1:48 utc | 89
I am doing things too quickly these days and posted this earlier today on an inappropriate thread, completely forgetting about this one. So here it is again. I think it is worth a second posting. I am also pressed for time and cannot edit and comment on it, but I think this first hand account by an American soldier who was in Falluja has a lot to offer those who ponder both the American military, the resistance, and how the military perceive the resistance.
**************************************************
THE FOLLOWING letter from a U.S. soldier stationed in Iraq, known as hEkLe,powerfully conveys the terror of the U.S. assault on Falluja. It was
published in GI Special, a daily Internet newsletter that gathers news and information helpful to soldiers and military families. You can find an archive of the GI Special updated with each new issue at
http://www.militaryproject.org. hEkLe and several fellow soldiers have a Web log that they regularly update with essays at
http://www.ftssoldier.blogspot.com.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
THESE ARE ugly times for the U.S. military in Iraq. It seems everywhere you turn, more and more troops are being killed and maimed in vicious
encounters with determined rebel fighters.
The insurgency is mounting incredibly in such places as Baghdad, Mosul and Baquba, using more advanced techniques and weaponry associated with a
well-organized guerilla campaign. Even in the massively destroyed city of Falluja, rebel forces are starting to reappear with a callous determination to win or die trying. Many critics and political pundits are starting to realize that this war is, in many aspects, un-winnable.
And why should anyone think that a complete victory is possible? Conventionally, our U.S. forces win territory here or there, killing a
plethora of civilians as well as insurgents with each new boundary conquered. However, such as the recent case in Falluja, the rebel fighters have returned like a swarm of angry hornets, attacking with a vicious frenzy.
I was in Falluja during the last two days of the final assault. My mission was much different from that of the brave and weary infantry and Marines involved in the major fighting. I was on an escort mission, accompanied by a squad whose task it was to protect a high brass figure in the combat zone.
This particularly arrogant officer went to the last battle in the same spirit of an impartial spectator checking out the fourth quarter of a high school football game. Once we got to the Marine-occupied Camp Falluja and saw artillery being fired into town, the man suddenly became desperate to play an active role in the battle that would render Falluja to ashes. It was already rumored that all he really wanted was his trigger time, perhaps to prove that he is the toughest cowboy west of the Euphrates. Guys like him are a dime a dozen in the army: a career soldier who spent the first 20 years of his service patrolling the Berlin Wall or guarding the DMZ between North and South Korea. This sort of brass may have been
lucky to serve in the first Gulf War, but in all actuality spent very little time shooting rag heads.
For these trigger-happy tough guys, the last two decades of Cold War hostilities built into a war frenzy of stark emptiness, fizzling out almost
completely with the Clinton administration. But this is the New War, a never-ending, action-packed “Red Scare” in which the communist threat of yesteryear was simply replaced with the white
knuckled tension of today’s “war on terrorism.”
The younger soldiers who grew up in relatively peaceful times interpret the mentality of the careerists as one of making up for lost opportunities. To the elder generation of trigger pullers, this is the real deal; the chance to use all the cool toys and high speed training that has been stored away since the ’70s for something tangibly useful…and it’s about goddamn time.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
HOWEVER, UPON reaching the front lines, a safety standard was in effect stating that the urban combat was extremely intense. The lightest armored
vehicles allowed in sector were Bradley tanks.
Taking a glance at our armored humvees, this commander insisted that our section would be fine. Even though the armored humvees are very stout and
nearly impenetrable against small-arms fire, they usually don’t hold up well against rocket attacks and roadside bombs, like a heavily armored tank
will. The reports from within the war zone indicated heavy rocket attacks, with an armed insurgent waiting on every corner for a soft target such as trucks. In the end, the overzealous officer was urged not to infiltrate into sector
with only three trucks, for it would be a death wish during those dangerous twilight hours. It was suggested that in the morning, after the air strikes were complete, he could move in and “inspect the damage.”
Even as the sun was setting over the hazy orange horizon, artillery was
pounding away at the remaining 12 percent of the already devastated Falluja. Many units were pulled out for the evening in preparation of a full-scale
air strike that was scheduled to last for up to 12 hours. Our squad was sitting on top of our parked humvees, manning the crew-served machine guns and scanning the urban landscape for enemy activity. This was supposed to be a secured forward operating area, right on the edge of the combat zone. However, with no barbed wire perimeter set up and only a few scattered tanks serving as protection, one was under the assumption that if
someone missed a minor detail while on guard, some serious shit could go down. One soldier informed me that only two nights prior, an insurgent was caught sneaking around the bullet-ridden houses to our immediate west. He was armed with a rocket-propelled grenade and was laying low on his advance towards the perimeter. One of the tanks spotted him through its night vision and hastily shot him into three pieces. Indeed, though it was safe enough to smoke a cigarette and relax, one had to remain diligently aware of his surroundings if he planned on making it through the night.
As the evening wore on and the artillery continued, a new gruesome roar filled the sky. The fighter jets were right on time and made their grand appearance with a series of massive air strikes. Between the pernicious bombs and fierce
artillery, the sky seemed as though it were on fire for several minutes at a time. First, you would see a blaze of light in the horizon, like
lightning hitting a dynamite warehouse, and then hear the massive explosion that would turn your stomach, rattle your eyeballs and compress itself deep within your lungs. Although these massive bombs were being dropped no further than five kilometers away, it felt like it was happening right in front of your face.
At first, it was impossible not to flinch with each unexpected boom, but after scores of intense explosions, your senses became aware and complacent towards them.
At times, the jets would scream menacingly low over the city and open fire with smaller missiles meant for extreme accuracy. This is what Top Gun, in all its glory and silver screen acclaim, seemed to be lacking in the movie’s high budget sound effects.
These air-deployed missiles make a banshee-like squeal, sort of like bottle rocket fueled with plutonium, and then suddenly would become inaudible. Seconds later, the colossal explosion would rip the sky open and hammer devastatingly into the ground, sending flames and debris pummeling into the air.
And as always, the artillery–some rounds were high explosive, some were illumination rounds, some were reported as being white phosphorus (the
modern-day napalm).
Occasionally, on the outskirts of the isolated impact area, you could hear tanks firing machine guns and blazing their cannons. It was amazing that anything could survive this deadly onslaught. Suddenly, a transmission came over the radio approving the request for “bunker-busters.” Apparently, there were a handful of insurgent compounds that were impenetrable by artillery. At the time, I was unaware when these bunker-busters were deployed, but I was told later that the incredibly massive explosions were a direct result of these “final solution”-type missiles.
I continued to watch the final assault on Falluja throughout the night from atop my humvee.
It was interesting to scan the vast skies above with night-vision goggles. Circling continuously overhead throughout the battle was an array of attack helicopters. The most devastating were the Cobras and Apaches with their chain-gun missile launchers.
Through the night vision, I could see them hovering around the carnage, scanning the ground with an infrared spotlight that seemed to reach for miles. Once a target was identified, a rapid series of hollow blasts would echo through the skies, and from the ground came a “rat-a-tatting” of explosions, like a daisy chain of supercharged black cats during a Fourth of July barbeque.
More artillery, more tanks, more machine gun fire, ominous death-dealing fighter planes terminating whole city blocks at a time…this wasn’t a war,
it was a massacre!
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
AS I look back on the air strikes that lasted well into the next morning, I cannot help but be both amazed by our modern technology and disgusted by
its means.
It occurred to me many times during the siege that while the Falluja resistance was boldly fighting us with archaic weapons from the Cold War, we were soaring far above their heads, dropping Thor’s fury with a destructive power and precision that may as well been nuclear. It was like the Iraqis were bringing a knife to a tank fight.
And yet, the resistance toiled on, many fighting until their deaths. What determination!
Some soldiers call them stupid for even thinking they have a chance in hell to defeat the strongest military in the world, but I call them brave. It’s
not about fighting to win an immediate victory. And what is a conventional victory in a non-conventional war?
It seems overwhelmingly obvious that this is no longer within the United States hands.
We reduced Falluja to rubble. We claimed victory and told the world we held Falluja under total and complete control. Our military claimed very few
civilian casualties and listed thousands of insurgents dead. CNN and Fox News harped and cheered on the television that the battle of Falluja would go down in history as a complete success, and a testament to the United States’ supremacy on the modern battlefield.
However, after the dust settled, and generals sat in cozy offices smoking their victory cigars, the front lines in Falluja exploded again with
indomitable mortar, rocket, and small-arm attacks on U.S. and coalition forces.
Recent reports indicate that many insurgents have resurfaced in the devastated city of Falluja. We had already claimed the situation under control and were starting to turn our attention to the other problem city of Mosul. Suddenly, we were backtracking our attention to Falluja. Did the
Department of Defense and the national press lie to the public and claim another preemptive victory?
Not necessarily so. Conventionally, we won the battle–how could anyone argue that? We destroyed an entire city and killed thousands of its
occupants. But the main issue that both the military and public forget to analyze is that this war, beyond any shadow of a doubt, is completely
guerrilla.
Sometimes I wonder if the West Point-graduated officers have ever studied the intricate simplicity and effectiveness of guerrilla warfare.
During the course of this war, I have occasionally asked a random lieutenant or a captain if he at any time has even browsed through Che Guevara’s Guerrilla Warfare. Almost half of them admit that they have not. This I find to be amazing! Here we have many years of guerrilla warfare ahead of us, and our military’s leadership seems dangerously unaware of what it all means!
Anyone can tell you that a guerrilla fighter is one who uses hit-and-run techniques to attempt a breakdown of a stronger conventional force.
However, what is more important to a guerrilla campaign are the political forces that drive it. Throughout history, many guerrilla armies have been successful; our own country and its fight for independence cannot be excluded.
We should have learned a lesson in guerrilla fighting with the Vietnam War only 30 years ago, but history has a funny way of repeating itself. The Vietnam War was a perfect example of how quick, deadly assaults on conventional troops over a long period of time can lead to an unpopular
public view of the war, thus ending it.
Che Guevara stressed in his book Guerrilla Warfare that the most important factor in a guerrilla campaign is popular support. With that, victory is
almost completely assured.
The Iraqis already have many of the main ingredients of a successful insurrection. Not only do they have a seemingly endless supply of munitions and weapons, they have the advantage to blend into their environment, whether that environment is a crowded marketplace or a thickly vegetated palm grove.
The Iraqi insurgent has utilized these advantages to the fullest, but his most important and relevant advantage is the popular support from his own countrymen.
What our military and government needs to realize is that every mistake we make is an advantage to the Iraqi insurrection. Every time an innocent man, woman or child is murdered in a military act, deliberate or not, the insurgent grows stronger.
Even if an innocent civilian is slain at the hands of his or her own freedom fighter, that fighter is still viewed as a warrior of the people, while the occupying force will ultimately be blamed as the responsible perpetrator.
Everything about this war is political…every ambush, every bombing, every death. When a coalition worker or soldier is abducted and executed, this only adds encouragement and justice to the dissident fervor of the Iraq public, while angering and demoralizing the occupier.
Our own media will prove to be our downfall as well. Every time an atrocity is revealed through our news outlets, our grasp on this once secular nation slips away. As America grows increasingly disturbed by the images of carnage and violent death of her own sons in arms, its government loses the justification to continue the bloody debacle.
Since all these traits are the conventional power’s unavoidable mistakes, the guerrilla campaign will surely succeed.
In Iraq’s case, complete destruction of the United States military is impossible, but through perseverance, the insurgency will drive us out.
This will prove to be the inevitable outcome of the war.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
WE LOST many soldiers in the final battle for Falluja, and many more were seriously wounded. It seems unfair that even after the devastation we
wreaked on this city just to contain it, many more troops will die in vain to keep it that way.
I saw the look in the eyes of a reconnaissance scout while I talked to him after the battle. His stories of gore and violent death were unnerving. The sacrifices that he and his whole platoon had made were infinite. They fought every day with little or no sleep, very few breaks and no hot meals.
For obvious reasons, they never could manage to find time to e-mail their mothers to let them know that everything turned out okay.
Some of the members of his platoon will never get the chance to reassure their mothers, because now, those soldiers are dead.
The look in his eyes as he told some of the stories were deep and weary, even perturbed. He described in accurate detail how some enemy combatants were blown to pieces by army-issued bazookas, some had their heads shot off by a 50 caliber bullet, others were run over by tanks as they stood defiantly in the narrow streets, firing an AK-47.
The soldier told me how one of his favorite sergeants died right in front of him. He was taking cover behind an alley wall, and as he emerged to fire his M4 rifle, he was shot through the abdomen with a rocket-propelled grenade.
The grenade itself exploded and sent shrapnel into the narrator’s leg. He showed me where a chunk of burned flesh was torn from his left thigh.
He ended his conversation saying that he was just a dumb kid from California who never thought joining the army would send him straight to
hell. He told me he was tired as fuck and wanted a shower. Then he slowly walked away, cradling a rifle under his arm.
Posted by: conchita | Dec 6 2004 2:15 utc | 90
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