Iran needs to develop its economical, technical and social base, but is confronted with a series of problems.
Iran produces only 1.77 MWh of urgently needed electricity per year per inhabitant. The US produces 12.4 MWh* per year per inhabitant. To increase its electricity production Iran prepares to use its resource of natural uranium and to establish an IAEA controlled cival nuclear program.
While the US recently announced plans to fly to Mars, Iran only now tries to launch its first own satellite into a low orbit by modifying military missiles.
Drug addiction is a major problem in Iran. There are at least 2 million drug users in the country. With opium production in neighboring Afghanistan increased by 63% in 2004 to record amounts, this is likely to further endager the Iranian society.
There are even more concerns. As blogger Abu Aardvark explains:
The country is ever more dominated by conservatives and advocates of political religion. There was a time in the 1990s when the country seemed to be moving in a more liberal direction, but those days are long past. Conservatives and religious movements have spent the last few years consolidating their control over the major political institutions – the executive branch, the legislative branch, the judiciary, even the media. Indeed, in the most recent elections, the conservatives routed their liberal counterparts. These conservatives and their religious base express open contempt for liberals and their values. Pretty much the only remaining opposition seems to be among university students and among some liberal newspapers, but their limited power doesn’t really threaten the ruling coalition. What’s more, the country has recently been very active inside of Iraq, which threatens important national security interests. Leading conservative figures, including some known for very close ties to senior government leaders, have openly declared their hostility and have even spoken about the need for military action. Even relatively moderate foreign policy officials have been sounding pretty hawkish lately.
Israel has declared Iran to be its No. 1 enemy and is lobbying the US into attacking Iran. With the current political developments in the United States, described by Abu Aardvark above, Iran now is not only confronted by economic and social problem, but also has to fear an immediate attack. Further escalation looks inevitable.
I am now reestablishing my long position in crude oil.
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*Update: corrected decimal sign, thx Jérôme