by Citizen

According to indymedia.org, its servers in London have somehow been seized by order of U.S. authorities. Their press release:

Cont. reading: New Free Speech Zones

Billmon sees a walking bomb.

UPDATE: 11:15am
The post at the Whiskey Bar is no longer on the front page. The above link goes to the archives.

It has been a bad week for Bush so far:

• Bremer said he asked for more troops, and Bush didn’t give them
• Duelfer said no WMD program related activity in Iraq
• terrorist action in Egypt, Pakistan, Iraq and France
• employment numbers are lower than expected
• crude oil closed at $53.05/barrel

Like this weeks headlines, the last debate was terrible for Bush. That makes it easy for him to be better in this debate and maybe they will spin that into victory. If Bush is wired again, they may even have trained for it by now.

• What questions should be asked?
• What is your immediate impression?
• Who did win and what’s the spin?

by Jérôme

The article Russian oil prospect provides a bleak view of Russian oil reserves. In a nutshell, ..

Cont. reading: Oily Thread IV

Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley writes

Summary and Investment Conclusion

The monetary bubble that the Fed has created post-tech burst has created property and commodity inflation (mainly in food and oil). I anticipate the cost-push inflation will spread to general inflation in the coming months, which may shake the bond market.

Cont. reading: Two Cents

“My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence.”
Transcript of Powell’s U.N. presentation

Irak had

Possible – Weapon – of – Mass – Destruction – Program – Related – Activity – Considerations

thought to eventually deter an Iranian aggression.

Never has a nation’s international standing be shredded like this.

From yesterdays debate:

CHENEY: We’ve been strong supporters of Israel. The president stepped forward and put in place a policy basically that said we will support the establishment of two states. First president ever to say we’ll establish and support a Palestinian state nextdoor to Israelis.

Ariel Sharon’s senior adviser Dov Weisglass in an interview with Haaretz partly published today:

“The significance of the disengagement plan is the freezing of the peace process,” … “And when you freeze that process, you prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and you prevent a discussion on the refugees, the borders and Jerusalem. Effectively, this whole package called the Palestinian state, with all that it entails, has been removed indefinitely from our agenda. And all this with authority and permission. All with a presidential blessing and the ratification of both houses of Congress.”

Cheney obviously bended the truth yesterday on several points, but this two-state-support-lie is new. The now supported concept is radical and disgusting. Will the US media call him on this? Will the Kerry campaign bring this up? Rhetorical questions. Weissglas continues:

“The peace process is the establishment of a Palestinian state with all the security risks that entails. The peace process is the evacuation of settlements, it’s the return of refugees, it’s the partition of Jerusalem. And all that has now been frozen…. what I effectively agreed to with the Americans was that part of the settlements would not be dealt with at all, and the rest will not be dealt with until the Palestinians turn into Finns.”

No support for a two state solution, the peace process frozen, the settlements not be dealt with, agreed to with the Americans – until the Palestinians turn into Finns. Goebbels would have been proud of that abyys analogy.

Also in yesterdays debate:

EDWARDS: Now, we know that the prime minister has made a decision, an historic decision, to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. It’s important for America to participate in helping with that process.
… [The Israeli] don’t have a partner for peace right now. They certainly don’t have a partner in Arafat, and they need a legitimate partner for peace.

Yasir Arafat is the elected president of the Palestinian Authority, with an overwhelming 87% majority. For Mr. Edwards that does not qualify him be a legitimate partner for peace. There is no other Palestinian leader in sight, therefore for Mr. Edwards the peace process is frozen too.

The Israeli/Palestinian conflict is the cancer of the Middle East. The metastases are now spreading even further and both parties in the US activly support the dispersal of the desease. How much longer? Until the Palestinians turn into Finns? Until a dirty nuke deserts Los Angeles? Until whatever may come first?

by koreyel

Josh Marshall writes something that I absolutely agree with:

I don’t usually think much of the sort of comment that I’m about to make. But there was a moment during this ‘philosophical’ phase of Cheney’s performance when I couldn’t help but think: ‘I just don’t know if this guy’s heart is really in it. I’m not sure they really want to win.’ He was listless. It was like Cheney checked out of the debate about a half hour before Edwards did.

That very moment happened for me too. It was just a fleeting feeling… yet strong enough that it rose to consciousness.

Essentially I thought: These guys know they have failed. And that very knowledge is dragging them down. Somewhere deep inside they know they should lose this election.

A strange psychodynamics is upsetting the guts of the republican party machine these days. The parts are misfiring. There is a listlessness and a emptiness to their arguments, and a rancor between various pistons.

Every creature, every machine, every society has to maintain some sort of integrity. A failure to do so leads to mechanical failure, exhaustion, and collapse.

Arguably, the wheels are coming off the republican party because they know the wheels deserve to come off. They really have bollixed up the planet in short order, and have no idea how to fix things. Trying to pretend they do is just making them sicker in their centers.

If Kerry can follow up on Friday with an acute performance… I think he can win it.

By an “Anonymous”, a veteran Foreign Service officer currently serving as a State Department official, yesterdays Salon:The State Department’s extreme makeover

Powell’s early 2005 departure is the subject of intense jockeying among the neocons. A Perle neocon protégé, Michael Rubin, has been given the task of destroying the only competition — L. Paul “Jerry” Bremer … They intend to close the Foggy Bottom door to any aspirations Bremer, a former Foreign Service officer and Kissinger protégé, might have to take over from Powell.

Bremer is fighting back and talking at DePawn University:

“The single most important change — the one thing that would have improved the situation — would have been having more troops in Iraq at the beginning and throughout… Although I raised this issue a number of times with our government, I should have been even more insistent.”

I am not sure what Bremer says is consistent with what he thinks or what he has said and thought before. Maybe he was the best possible choice against the neocons, but now he is off that list.

The little revolution State, with the above article, the CIA with several leaks and the military with some disgruntled rumours are running, will not be enough. Maybe they still have an October surprise, but don’t bet on it.

So what is to expect in foreign policy if Bush wins? Powell and Armitage are out, Condolezza Rice will get State and be as ineffective as ever. Wolfowitz will become National Security Advisor and Feith will take Wolfowitz’s seat in the Pentagon. David Wurmser or John Bolton will be Rice’s deputy and run the show at State. Arafat will be killed, Syria couped and Iran bombed – the Zionist/Neocon wish list will be followed point by point. In four years Palestine will be cleansed from Palestinians. Teheran will be burned down and the preparations to attack China in full swing. Welcome to a brave new world.

No wonder the realcons are begging for help

Dick Cheney as advertised by the Bush/Cheney campaign.

Throughout his service, Mr. Cheney served with duty, honor, and unwavering leadership, gaining him the respect of the American people during trying military times.

John Edwards bio written by the Kerry/Edwards campaign.

Whether in the courtroom or the Senate, John Edwards has been guided by the small-town values his parents taught him when he was young – hard work, responsibility, and community. And those same values guide him in his campaign to be vice president.

Hard do guess how the viewers will judge on the discussion tonight. There are some openings in Cheney’s defense from today’s press. Rumsfeld has not seen ‘strong, hard evidence’ of an AlQaida – Iraq link and Paul Bremer admits ”We never had enough troops on the ground.”.

Cheney’s flip-flop going to Baghdad 2002 versus 1992 should also be a fair point. How many additional American casualties is Saddam worth? Cheney had asked. Edwards should demand an answer. But of course Cheney will be prepared for these and have his attack points ready.

From outer appearance I expect Edwards, People magazine’s sexiest politician, to win this one, but Cheney’s ever frightening terror, terror, terror does boost voter support on all issues.

What is your bet?

I am quite busy, but also sure there are many things out there that deserve to be spread. Break the silence.

One of most beautiful technical creation of the last years, privatly financed and build Space Ship One, just made its second official flight to an altitude of over 100 km above earth. As an engineer I am amazed by the look of the ship and its launch carrier, The White Knight. This is not design where “Form Follows Function” here “Form Is Function” – just beautiful.

Some people will now be able to fulfil there dream of a space flight – for $180,000 more or less. To our children, this may become a common way to travel.

DoD, NASA or ESA would never be able to build something like this – wrong price, wrong design. Bureaucracies demand to many compromises to be really effective in frontier technology. Bureaucracies have also other thoughts than fulfil peoples dream of a few minutes in space.

Russia had proposed a global ban on space arms in 2003, but the US was not interested. Instead, the new Air Force Doctrine Document 2-2.1: Counterspace Operations (PDF) guides on

the ways and means by which the Air Force achieves and maintains space superiority … Space superiority provides freedom to attack …

Is this what Bush means when he says ‘Freedom Will Prevail’?

Context links:
Scaled Composite: Space Ship One
The Register: world’s space hardware gets nervous
Wired: All’s Fair in Space War
Discussion at: Slashdot

The candidates seem not to differ in their position on Israel and Palestine. In the foreign policy debate Bush used seven words to mention Israel, Kerry used five. Security is the top issue for the US electorate, the Palestine conflict is no. 17 on a list of 19 priorities (Link). If Osama bin Laden talks of: “ignoring the real problem of occupying the entirety of Palestine” the West ignores him too – until he hits again.

While the electorate sleeps, evangelist Pat Robertson stirs the fire. Haaretz reports:

In two Jerusalem appearances, Robertson Sunday praised Israel as part of God’s plan and criticized Arab countries and some Muslims, saying their hopes to include Israeli-controlled land in a Palestinian state are part of “Satan’s plan.”

Without the $100 billion Israel has received by the United States since 1949, currently at an official $3 billion per year rate, the state of Israel could not exist. Some calculate the costs induced to the US by Israel at exceeding $1.6 trillion. With their olive trees uprooted by Israels tanks, the Palestinians barely survive through aid from Islamic states and the EU.

A two state solution, as proposed by the now dead roadmap, is not viable. The planed Palestinian state – effectively under Israel’s economic and military control – would never be able to survive. The Zionists long term plan to transfer all Palestinians to Jordan and annex their land does (not yet?) receive support by the US. The only solution left is a one state/two people entity as it factual exists today.

Michael Tarazi, a legal adviser to the Palestine Liberation Organization, argues the case in todays New York Times.

But in this de facto state, 3.5 million Palestinian Christians and Muslims are denied the same political and civil rights as Jews.
…
In South Africa, such an allocation of rights and privileges based on ethnic or religious affiliation was called apartheid. In Israel, it is called the Middle East’s only democracy.

A one state solution does look difficult today, but it is the only one that has a long term chance for peace. An international initiative, with soft words of help and a big stick threat of economic sanctions, could bring this about.

Bin Laden thinks new blows with his big stick are needed to start this initiative. The west should preempt him by starting it now.

Context Links:
Gaza residents run out space to bury dead
Strike looms again over unpaid wages
A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties
Two Peoples, One State

The ‘chief political correspondent’ of Fox News and Fox reporter on the Kerry campaign, Carl Cameron, has written a piece with fake quotes of Kerry saying

“Women should like me! I do manicures.”
“Didn’t my nails and cuticles look great? What a good debate!”
“I’m metrosexual — [Bush’s] a cowboy.”

The piece was on the Fox News web site for a short while. Fair and balanced reporting indeed, but who does expect them to do different?

Today they report that some Kerry supporters, the Communists For Kerry, love the Senator:

“Even though he, too, is a capitalist, he supports my socialist values more than President Bush,” Rob said, before assuring FOXNews.com that his organization was not a parody group.

Foxnews.com obviously had no means to check the About link on the Communists website

“Communists for Kerry” is a campaign of the Hellgate Republican Club, a tax exempt non-partisan public advocacy “527” organization that exists for the purpose of;

“Informing voters with satire and irony, .. [to] help elect candidates who support economic growth through Entrepreneurship, limited government and lower taxes.”

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo is all over the Carl Cameron story and the press will follow up.

Now imagine to be Karl Rove, Bush’s reelection manager, and after a disastrous debate you need to get the press to concentrate on something different. What better to give them than the red meat of fighting each other over “fair and balanced” reporting. The media reporters of NYT, WaPo, LAT etc, read by every journalist every day, will be all over this for the next days or so. And there will be follow ups and follow, follow ups. No time to talk about war or social security, but plenty of ink to repeat Cameron’s phrases.

Carl was at the debate as was Karl. Maybe they had a beer and talked a little, maybe there was a phonecall to Mr. Murdoch, and here we are. New bumper sticker themes for rednecks – talkingpoints for journalists – red meat to the press and red meat to the base.

Paranoid idea? Maybe, then maybe not.

David Skinner in the Weekly Standard
Bush the Heavy
Frankly, I liked the Bush performance. His energy clearly flagged in the middle, as it often does for Bush about 20 or 30 minutes into a presentation. But he did a good job of depriving Kerry of the opportunity to make Bush look like he was sitting in his seat.

Contra MSNBC, Kerry may have won on points, but he didn’t look much better than a pretender.

Jay Nordlinger in the National Review
Don’t Shoot the Messenger…
I thought Kerry did very, very well; and I thought Bush did poorly – much worse than he is capable of doing. Listen: If I were just a normal guy – not Joe Political Junkie – I would vote for Kerry. On the basis of that debate, I would. If I were just a normal, fairly conservative, war-supporting guy: I would vote for Kerry. On the basis of that debate.

When the right wing flak comes up with Bush did poorly and his energy clearly flagged we don´t need to debate who has won. Now to follow through is very important and I am not sure yet that Kerry and his campaign will bring it on.

Some pictures:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5