Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 27, 2004
Where is the Surprise?

Hi Karl,

It is already the 27th and there still isn’t that surprise. What has happened? You are so good with this stuff so why is there nothing on Fox?

We need a really big one now. The polls show we may lose and all these lawyers and judges are unreliable – they just aren’t the base.

Just talked to Diebold. They have trouble with their vote balancing algorithms – had to take’em out. Now we need direct database access. What a screw up.

Sharon did win his “pay-Gaza-settlers-to-annex-West-Jordan” vote yesterday. No need for him to blow up Teheran now. That bastard is totally unreliable.

Why do the Brits take so long to get to Falluja? Do they expect US to take the casualties? A week before the election? Blair needs a butt kick – Allawi too – talking of “major neglect” – who does he think he is? Have Rummy call them.

And talking about Rummy, his shop is leaking like a sieve. $70 billion request, 30,000 more troops for Iraq, those damned explosives. Can´t he even shut up his Generals.

So where is the surprise? We can have Fox, God and whoever speaking for us, but we need an initiative, a spark, a surprise. We need one!

Don’t tell me there isn’t any coming up. That one would be really bad.

Comments

Slightly OT:
“Rove-ism” is McCarthyism with a squirting flower.

Posted by: beq | Oct 27 2004 14:01 utc | 1

No need for surprise this time…Bushco will steal this election like they did last time…and Americans will go on with their lives like a last time…

Posted by: vbo | Oct 27 2004 14:30 utc | 2

Arafat has a gallstone. Better watch what he eats…and stay away from the windows.

Posted by: TP | Oct 27 2004 15:07 utc | 3

I had chosen this day for the October surprise as well in a pool that a small group of friends and I participated in. There is no prize, just bragging rights. Oh well, there still are a lot of hours left in this day.

Posted by: Dan of Steele | Oct 27 2004 15:12 utc | 4

Well maybe this is the surprise – Bush having lucid insights. Found this on Washington monthly:
Bush on CNN:

A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who you want as commander in chief.


I guess no comment required.

Posted by: Fran | Oct 27 2004 15:50 utc | 5

Or maybe the surprise is a Cheney meltdown. Another one from Kevin Drum.
SHOOTING THE MESSENGER….Justin Logan excerpts an interesting piece today by Philip Giraldi in the print edition of The American Conservative. Giraldi claims that when the CIA’s Counter Terrorism Center provided Dick Cheney with a special briefing on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s prewar ties with Saddam Hussein last month, Cheney was a wee bit unhappy with their conclusions:

The CTC concluded that Saddam Hussein had not materially supported Zarqawi before the U.S.-led invasion and that Zarqawi’s infrastructure in Iraq before the war was confined to the northern no-fly zones of Kurdistan, beyond Baghdad’s reach. Cheney reacted with fury, screaming at the briefer that CIA was trying to get John Kerry elected by contradicting the president’s stance that Saddam had supported terrorism and therefore needed to be overthrown. The hapless briefer was shaken by the vice president’s outburst, and the incident was reported back to [newly appointed CIA director Porter] Goss, who indicated that he was reluctant to confront the vice president’s staff regarding it.

I don’t know who Giraldi’s source for this was, but it’s a sadly familiar MO for this administration: shoot the messenger, refuse to believe anything you don’t want to believe, and treat everything first and foremost as an excuse for partisan bludgeoning, not as a serious problem that requires serious analysis and a serious solution.
You can’t excise a cancer if you spend your time screaming at the lab because the biopsy report isn’t what you expected. Why would anyone think that Bush and Cheney can successfully fight terrorism if they willfully refuse to understand the true nature of the threat?

Posted by: Fran | Oct 27 2004 16:04 utc | 6

Just for a grin, this is from a totally irrelevant discussion on a distant mailing list far far away (devoted to antique stationary engines, don’t ask): Jeff don’t let those Kerry supporters get you down. They always ignore the truth and don’t like it when people have opposing views, especially if you have anything in writing contrary to their belief.
In light of the survey about contra-factual beliefs of Bush supporters and the Cheney meltdown described above, this struck me as (a) ROTFL funny, and (b) also, in a way, sort of scary.

Posted by: DeAnander | Oct 27 2004 16:14 utc | 7

DeAnander, you’re reality-based, you just can’t understand the sheer brilliance of the Repub state of mind. I mean, you can’t create your own brand new reality, can you? Well, so there.
After all, Bush has bright examples of reality-shaping leaders. Take some Adolf H, late German leader; when his generals began worrying about the coming winter and the lack of winter equipment and clothing for the troops, said Adolf H replied “You, go ahead and fight the Soviets. I’ll deal with winter myself.” Obviously, a great faith-based leader can change the weather patterns at will, if he’s strong-willed, resolute and decisive enough. Of course, in our Adolf H’s case, it seems he went a bit over the top in reality-shaping willpower since he in fact brought upon his Wehrmacht what recent international data comparisons revealed to have been the worst winter of the entire 20th century.
Draw your own conclusions about what will happen to GWB’s most excellent adventures.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Oct 27 2004 16:30 utc | 8

Whose surprise?

Posted by: beq | Oct 27 2004 17:39 utc | 9

There won’t be an October Surpise, or a November Surprise for that matter. Much too dangerous.
I suppose the election will be decided in the courts again. Bush can win it easily through cheating, manipulation.
There will be no terrorism in the US or attacks on Iran or Syria until well into 2005 – say March.
All is proceeding smoothly.
–from my reading of the STARS *!!*

Posted by: Blackie | Oct 27 2004 18:40 utc | 10

Steve Perry at Citypages guesses that massive voter theft is the October surprise. After several cycles with Nader, he plans to vote for Kerry.
http://babelogue.citypages.com:8080/sperry/

Posted by: TP | Oct 27 2004 18:54 utc | 11

sorry for the cut & paste but after all this time i do not know how to do links (or italic or bold for that matter :
The GOP’s Shameful Vote Strategy
  By Harold Meyerson
  The Washington Post
  Wednesday 27 October 2004
  With Election Day almost upon us, it’s not clear whether President Bush is running a campaign or plotting a coup d’etat. By all accounts, Republicans are spending these last precious days devoting nearly as much energy to suppressing the Democratic vote as they are to mobilizing their own.
  Time was when Republicans were at least embarrassed by their efforts to keep African Americans from the polls. Republican consultant Ed Rollins was all but drummed out of the profession after his efforts to pay black ministers to keep their congregants from voting in a 1993 New Jersey election came to light.
  For George W. Bush, Karl Rove and their legion of genteel thugs, however, universal suffrage is just one more musty liberal ideal that threatens conservative rule. Today’s Republicans have elevated vote suppression from a dirty secret to a public norm.
  In Ohio, Republicans have recruited 3,600 poll monitors and assigned them disproportionately to such heavily black areas as inner-city Cleveland, where Democratic “527” groups have registered many tens of thousands of new voters. “The organized left’s efforts to, quote unquote, register voters — I call them ringers — have created these problems” of potential massive vote fraud, Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman James P. Trakas recently told the New York Times.
  Let’s pass over the implication that a registration drive waged by a liberal group is inherently fraud-ridden, and look instead at that word “ringers.”
  Registration in Ohio is nonpartisan, but independent analysts estimate that roughly 400,000 new Democrats have been added to the rolls this year. Who does Trakas think they are? Have tens of thousands of African Americans been sneaking over the state lines from Pittsburgh and Detroit to vote in Cleveland — thus putting their own battleground states more at risk of a Republican victory? Is Shaker Heights suddenly filled with Parisians affecting American argot? Or are the Republicans simply terrified that a record number of minority voters will go to the polls next Tuesday? Have they decided to do anything to stop them — up to and including threatening to criminalize Voting While Black in a Battleground State?
  This is civic life in the age of George W. Bush, in which politics has become a continuation of civil war by other means. In Bush’s America, there’s a war on — against a foreign enemy so evil that we can ignore the Geneva Conventions, against domestic liberals so insidious that we can ignore democratic norms. Only bleeding hearts with a pre-Sept. 11 mind-set still believe in voting rights.
  For Bush and Rove, the domestic war predates the war on terrorism. From the first day of his presidency, Bush opted to govern from the right, to fan the flames of cultural resentment, to divide the American house against itself in the hope that cultural conservatism would create a stable Republican majority. The Sept. 11 attacks unified us, but Bush exploited those attacks to relentlessly partisan ends. As his foreign and domestic policies abjectly failed, Bush’s reliance on identity politics only grew stronger. He anointed himself the standard-bearer for provincials and portrayed Kerry and his backers as arrogant cosmopolitans.
  And so here we are, improbably enmeshed in a latter-day version of the election of 1928, when the Catholicism of Democratic presidential nominee Al Smith bitterly divided the nation along Protestant-Catholic and nativist-immigrant lines. To his credit, Smith’s opponent (and eventual victor), Herbert Hoover, did not exploit this rift himself. Bush, by contrast, has not merely exploited the modernist-traditionalist tensions in America but helped create new ones and summoned old ones we could be forgiven for thinking were permanently interred. (Kerry will ban the Bible?)
  Indeed, it’s hard to think of another president more deliberately divisive than the current one. I can come up with only one other president who sought so assiduously to undermine the basic arrangements of American policy (as Bush has undermined the New Deal at home and the systems of post-World War II alliances abroad) with so little concern for the effect this would have on the comity and viability of the nation. And Jefferson Davis wasn’t really a president of the United States.
  After four years in the White House, George W. Bush’s most significant contribution to American life is this pervasive bitterness, this division of the house into raging, feuding halves. We are two nations now, each with a culture that attacks the other. And politics, as the Republicans are openly playing it, need no longer concern itself with the most fundamental democratic norm: the universal right to vote.
  As the campaign ends, Bush is playing to the right and Kerry to the center.
  That foretells the course of the administrations that each would head. The essential difference between them is simply that, as a matter of strategy and temperament, Bush seeks to exploit our rifts and Kerry to narrow them. That, finally, is the choice before us next Tuesday: between one candidate who wants to pry this nation apart to his own advantage, and another who seeks to make it whole

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Oct 27 2004 19:12 utc | 12

@Blackie
I agree on the court “solution”. If they push it up to the supreme court Rehnquist is seriously ill and could resign. That would be a 4 vs. 4 decision than. But Bush could nominate a new judge and as congress is in recess, nobody could stop him.
Perfectly legal with Bush on the lever to decide who decides.
WaPo on Rehnquist

Posted by: b | Oct 27 2004 19:27 utc | 13

RGiap & I were on same wavelength today. I was going to post on Meyerson article which Truthout had it waiting in my mailbox.
But I agree w/beq…..anyone who hasn’t read his/her 2nd link to the Stanley Hilton interview MUST. Since Pentagon Brass & CIA know that our National Security truly does depend entirely upon removing Bu$hCo, when they rig the machines & go to the Supremes, the Brass (The Really Big Dogs) will just pop by Scalia’s office & mention either Kerry is President or a copy of Bush’s order for 9/11 will be on Woodward’s desk ASAP. Kerry’s only job was to get it close enough to be plausible, which he’s done. So, we can sleep easily and pray for Treason Trials.

Posted by: jj | Oct 27 2004 19:34 utc | 14

Thanks remembereringgiap: You copy/paste very well. I have given that one wings.

Posted by: beq | Oct 27 2004 19:35 utc | 15

For those of us voting next Tuesday MoveOn has put together a wallet-sized card with all the numbers you need to know if someone interferes with your right to vote.

Posted by: beq | Oct 27 2004 19:46 utc | 16

jj, you ARE an optimist. It looks like hackers are plying their trade on the Bush campaign website
If they are still taking in money which I assume they are, this could hurt. Is the worm turning?

Posted by: Dan of Steele | Oct 27 2004 19:52 utc | 17

What are they doing to these kids?

Three busloads of schoolchildren from the Heritage Christian School waited for an hour and a half to see Cheney and clap for the man they said speaks to the issues important to their lives.
Asked to name the country’s biggest problem, 12-year-old Vivian Resto said, “Homosexuals. I think it’s kind of gross, and my mom and I believe it should be a man and a woman.”
Her 7-year-old classmate, Kevin Strickland, said the most significant issue facing the country is stem cell research. And 13-year-old Marcus Kleinhans said he was most worried about abortion.

WaPo
Some time ago they called them Hitler Jugend.

Posted by: b | Oct 27 2004 21:15 utc | 18

Quote:
Why would anyone think that Bush and Cheney can successfully fight terrorism if they willfully refuse to understand the true nature of the threat?
***
Kerry said : They don’t get it and that’s why they can’t fix it!
I think they get it but they do not care to fix it because they have other things to care for…how to put billions in their pockets in a shorter time possible…for example.
But is American electorate really listening ? Are those things even important for most of them? I don’t think so. I know Australians did not listen when during campaign it was obvious that Howard & Co did lie deliberately…The only thing important for them (electorate) is their standard of living and how to maintain it. So if Americans feel they are doing OK there is no way they’ll expel Bush. For those who are not doing well economically Bush “invented” new Christianity that is so easy to believe in…You can kill, revenge, rob others in order to sustain your “way of life” and still according to Bush you’ll be saved by his God. Who wouldn’t like God like that????
They did think about everything so I don’t see how they can lose…

Posted by: vbo | Oct 28 2004 1:49 utc | 19

October surprises so far:
BOSTON WINS WORLD SERIES
CHIEF JUSTICE TRACHIOTOMY/ CANCER
KNESSET/SHARON APPROVE W/D of SETTLERS
ARAFAT COLLAPSES
Now if the Packers win on Sunday,…..

Posted by: gylangirl | Oct 28 2004 3:55 utc | 20

Now, now, people, there’s two days left in the media cycle…have some faith in your Unka Karl. Yes, that Kerry’s a problem, but there’s still time for some Bush voodoo – ignore a problem until it evaporates like the morning dew.

Posted by: Harrow | Oct 28 2004 4:09 utc | 21

Can the Red Sox victory be mere “synchronicity”?
If this, after 86 years of wandering in the desert, isn’t a sign from above, nothing is.

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Oct 28 2004 4:47 utc | 22

Well maybe there is not one surprise, but the surprises keep coming.
Are the rats leaving the sinking ship?
Blair admits – yes, I’ve met Kerry

AFTER months of embarrassed silence over links with US Democrats, Downing Street finally admitted yesterday that Tony Blair had twice met John Kerry, who is challenging the Prime Minister’s war ally President Bush for the Oval Office.
And another surprise – or maybe not!
US gave date of war to Britain in advance, court papers reveal

Secret plans for the war in Iraq were passed to British Army chiefs by US defence planners five months before the invasion was launched, a court martial heard yesterday.
The revelation strengthened suspicions that Tony Blair gave his agreement to President George Bush to go to war while the diplomatic efforts to force Saddam Hussein to comply with UN resolutions were continuing.

Posted by: Fran | Oct 28 2004 5:22 utc | 23

Fran,
Those “secret” invasion plans have no weight. All armies of the world have contingency plans against their potential opponents. For example, the US had always studies/plans of an invasion of Canada or Mexico. They could be used in the case of a Soviet invasion or any other emergency.
I assume that the British HQ asked for them in advance to plan how to cooperate IN CASE of an invasion. A prudent military planner would do exactly that.
This is NOT an evidence of a Bush/Blair secret agreement.

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Oct 28 2004 12:07 utc | 24

Marcin: Well, it was pretty clear the US had plans of invasion, “just in case”; you clearly can’t hope to successfully invade Iraq if you hadn’t planned it months and months ahead (even if the end result surely makes me wonder). The real trouble is if indeed they had already decided on a date for the invasion, and shared this info with the British – otherwise, why would the Brits be “one mont late” in their training? If it’s the case, it would be a clear proof of what was already obvious to anyone with a bit of sense in late 2002, that Bush intended to attack with or without UN approval. In fact, I don’t know why wingnuts even contested this point, since Bush said so himself, literally.
Such planning is standard operation procedure, but it is still a bit disturbing and people should be wary of their govt and military drawing that kind of plans – if only because it means that their “friendly neighbors” may well do the same kind of planning against them, and because if the govt plans foreign invasion, it may as well plan domestic martial law and repression “just in case”. It’s like spying abroad and internal intelligence gathering: to some extent it’s necessary to insure the country’s security, but that can very quickly be twisted and perverted.
I repeat that imho the real evidence would be if the US HQ had actually fixed a date (like 4th week of March) to attack, because it’s when their preparations would be achieved. I’m also reminded of one of the most ridiculous arguments just before the war, which was “We have to attack; our troops are sitting there since months and they’re bored. We really can’t leave them like that for too long.”

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Oct 28 2004 12:39 utc | 25

Marcin: I am aware that there are plans on the ready, just in case. But if I recollect properly, already around the time Bush went in front of the UN there was talk of a March attack. So that date must have been fixed early on an Tony Blair must have been aware of it, despite his bla, bla about diplomatic solutions.
Maybe this article is part of an answer:
Exclusive: Bush Wanted To Invade Iraq If Elected in 2000

Houston: Two years before the September 11 attacks, presidential candidate George W. Bush was already talking privately about the political benefits of attacking Iraq, according to his former ghost writer, who held many conversations with then-Texas Governor Bush in preparation for a planned autobiography.
“He was thinking about invading Iraq in 1999,” said author and journalist Mickey Herskowitz. “It was on his mind. He said to me: ‘One of the keys to being seen as a great leader is to be seen as a commander-in-chief.’ And he said, ‘My father had all this political capital built up when he drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait and he wasted it.’ He said, ‘If I have a chance to invade….if I had that much capital, I’m not going to waste it. I’m going to get everything passed that I want to get passed and I’m going to have a successful presidency.”

Posted by: Fran | Oct 28 2004 15:09 utc | 26

I’m going to get everything passed that I want to get passed and I’m going to have a successful presidency.
Oh Gawd, I cringe, I (metaphorically) upchuck. All those people, all those people killed for some spoilt fratboy rich schmuck’s propaganda campaign, to pad out his resumé?

Posted by: DeAnander | Oct 28 2004 16:17 utc | 27

Alex Cockburn suggests that the real surprise may come for Kerry supporters after a Kerry victory: “voting for John Kerry now is like voting for LBJ in 1964 with full precognition of what he was going to do in Vietnam for the next four years.” He quotes conservative analyst Luttwak in the rightwing Telegraph (UK): “John Kerry will make his adoring anti-war groupies look like fools”. I have the same grim feeling. This election has become an absurdist tonker-waving competition and that can only lead to one behaviour pattern for the victor.
And Ariel Dorfman, a personal favourite of mine, puts a more positive spin on the same dreary prospect by proclaiming that the struggle for the soul of America has only just begun. Dorfman knows whereof he speaks. I dunno about the black hoodie, if it becomes the preferred symbol of resistance then I guess I’ll wear one no matter how much I dislike Eminem (“loathe” might be a more apt choice of words) — but I anticipate plenty of resistance needed no matter which corporate-friendly member of the hereditary aristocracy gets the throne this time around.
BTW, don’t lose track of the thread on Kerry’s promise to the Teamsters that I am against drilling in ANWR, but I am going to put that pipeline in, and we’re going to drill like never before. Don’t expect Kerry to lead us to the promised land of alternative energy, frugality, and conservation.
Sometimes I think that, as with German expansionism, psychotic masculinism and nationalist/racist fervour in the 30’s and 40’s, the only cure for this form of mental illness is consequences. Someone once said about ice that it’s a wicked drug but at least the crash comes quickly. Maybe the only thing that will teach Americans to live within their means instead of stealing from their neighbours, is to learn the full consequences of a life of crime.

Posted by: DeAnander | Oct 28 2004 16:30 utc | 28

“tonker-waving”?

Posted by: beq | Oct 28 2004 16:37 utc | 29

We cannot afford to wait till the full consequences arrive.
OK I’ll put it another way: The consequences have arrived. Our reaction is anger and denial. No, that won’t fix it either.

Posted by: rapt | Oct 28 2004 18:57 utc | 30

@beq sorry — ref. Terry Pratchett, ummm probably Lords and Ladies, as in “I’ve got a great big tonker!” Closely related to willie-jousting.

Posted by: DeAnander | Oct 29 2004 3:35 utc | 31

Comparing Occupations — Haroon Siddiqui compares the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with the US invasion of Iraq and considers similarities and differences.

The Afghan misadventure made the Soviet Union unpopular among Muslims, discredited communism, killed the small leftist movements in the Muslim world. In fact, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the Reagan administration’s ideological mobilization of Islam to counter “the Communist evil” may have revived Islamic fundamentalism.

It is this last comparison that fascinates me. There are a lot of Muslims in the world. If the Soviet folly and wickedness in Afghanistan soured the Muslim world on leftist politics generally and Communism specifically, then will the American folly and wickedness in Iraq sour the Muslim world on capitalism — at least the neoliberal Chicago School flavour? What interesting “Third Way” might emerge out of pan-Arab political thought if the dominant duality of Soviet Communism vs American Capitalism is overthrown?

Posted by: DeAnander | Oct 29 2004 4:50 utc | 32