A foreign policy trial ballon from a current Financial Times article:
Members of the municipal council of Basra, Iraq’s second largest city, have been holding talks with officials from councils in two neighbouring provinces on establishing a federal region in the south, … The three provinces – Basra, Missan and Dhiqar – account for more than 80 per cent of the proved oil reserves of the country’s 18 provinces and provide a large share of the national income.
…
people close to the Iraqi government say some officials driving the autonomy talks are backed by Muqtada al-Sadr, the renegade Shia cleric who launched an uprising against American troops in July.
This Fictional Times article, January 2005, puts more light on the issue:
The occupation authorities in Iraq have secretly asked two confidants, who afore had been appointed to the city council of Basra, to take over the government of the southern province. They are to form an administrative unit with those two neighbour provinces that account for most of Iraq’s oil reserves.Only one cabinet member from the southern provinces is member of Prime Ministers Allawis cabinet, created by the Coalition Provisional Administration. “Unfortunately this now allows The South to complain about under representation in the central government.” the US ambassador to Iraq, Mr. Negroponte, explained. “We are trying to correct this sad error by lobbying the central government for more local latitude in The South.”
A Marine Corp general in Bagdhad gave some background on the military situation. “As the 15 northern provinces are now controlled by Iraqi personal, we can immediately reduce our troop numbers significantly. 50,000 men and women will stay in Iraq and will continue to build democracy. For logistical reasons I have proposed to station them exclusivly in the Autonomous Southern Provinces. This will shorten our lines of communication as supply will come through the harbour of Basra. It´s also only a short jump from our air bases in Kuwait.”
A British general added: “As the British troops are leaving, the American forces will take over our tasks. There have been less clashes here as in the Kurdish Kirkuk, the Sunni triangle and the Shia areas around Najaf, so their task here will be a lot easier. There will be fewer body bags.”
Prime Minister Allawi could not be reached for a statement as he is currently consulting with Muqtada al-Sadr in Najaf. Al Sadr, who had been said to be interested in the southern provinces, had denied such ambitions and had pointed out that no significant symbolic places of Islam are located in the south. After Sistanis death, the young cleric is expected to control the significant money flow generated by Shia pilgrimage in Najaf.
“The process we are now engaged in, will lead to a completely Autonomous South” a former senior official working at the AEI in Washington envisioned. “That new national entity has strong family and tribal relations with their brothers across the southern border. In the long term these borders may vanish and a reunited Dawlat al Kuwayt will emerge as a new prosperous and peaceful diamond in the northern Gulf.”
The Financial Times article Oil-rich Iraqi provinces push for autonomy is just the trial ballon. They are dead serious with this concept and for the neocons as for the realists it makes a whole lot of sense. If the other 15 Iraqi provinces will be a dirt poor hell on earth – who cares?
