A loose thread collection about energy and water
For reference links to Oily Thread I and Oily Thread II
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September 2, 2004
Oily Thread III
Comments
What’s really behind the recent redeployment of U.S. military forces? Making sure no one messes with American access to global energy resources.
Salon´s article, Oil, guns and money, is an excerpt from the new book “Oil: Anatomy of an Industry” by Matthew Yeomans. (You can read it after enduring a short commercial)
The authors conclusion:
As the U.S. searches for new ways to reduce its reliance on Middle East oil, protecting energy supplies from Latin America, Central Asia and West Africa will take on greater importance. The new realignment of its global military might will likely see the U.S. risk placing its armed forces in danger throughout the most treacherous and politically unstable areas of the world for decades to come. It is a scenario likely to be replayed not just in the Persian Gulf but also across the Central Asian republics, West Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America and anywhere else in the developing world where new oil is found. The net result may ensure America gets the oil it needs, but it is a policy that makes the United States secure, not safer. More U.S. troops will perish protecting oil and hatred of America will expand far beyond the ravings of Islamic extremists. Ultimately, it is an unsustainable policy.
Posted by: b | Sep 2 2004 19:51 utc | 1
Bernhard and Jerome.
I have a sneaking feeling that you guys deal in oil futures, and you are dredging?
Posted by: Cloned Poster | Sep 2 2004 20:14 utc | 2
A thought on water.
The city of Hamburg, Germany in 1994 introduced mandatory water metering at the apartment level. By now 87% of the apartments have water metering. The leasers now have to pay for water (and sewege) along this metering.
Over these years the water consumption per person did decrease some 18% from 38 gallons per day to 31 gallons per day. A 20% reduction was the original objective and may be reached.
Making people pay the total cost of their consumption of resources is a huge step to reduce consumptions.
Posted by: b | Sep 2 2004 20:22 utc | 3
@CP
full disclosure – I privatly did and do deal in financial instruments depending on oil prices – though not in futures. BTW – quite a good run last month – will pay for the moon for a while.
Posted by: b | Sep 2 2004 20:28 utc | 4
Point taken.
As for water. I work in a private boarding school, lots a German kids there (boy they pay their bills on time) but water bills are a nightmare. I decided to get my totally incompetent foreman to do daily readings of the meter. Bill dropped 75% last quarter. IMHO read your meters, otherwise the local authories will screw you.
Oil? I wouldn’t mind taring and feathering a recent Democratic traitor.
PS: Any share of profits for my diligent review of oil intelligence and sharing it here on you website?
Posted by: Cloned Poster | Sep 2 2004 20:36 utc | 5
The Trillion-Barrel Tar Pit
It’s interesting to observe that by ‘securing’ cheap Middle East oil prez. Bush has actually protected the environment.
The alternative resources: heavy oil, tar sands in Athabasca or in the Orinoco Belt are more costly to produce both financially and energetically. They have to be refined in place, which means burning a lot of tar to produce some gasoline. Plus, firing carcenogens in to the atmosphere.
Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Sep 2 2004 21:44 utc | 6
It is ironic that the U.S. is seeking a greater degree of oil security through foreign wars and occupation, but is still unwilling to allow exploration and drilling off of most of its own shores. Almost all of the U.S. outercontinental shelf has been off-limits for oil exploration and production since the first Bush regime.
Posted by: maxcrat | Sep 3 2004 1:07 utc | 7
@MarcinG Thanks for that Tar Pit link – good information.
Water Down Government A libertarian street sweeper discussing water regulation in Australia.
Posted by: b | Sep 3 2004 11:57 utc | 8
Oil worries lubricate South China Sea pact
China has been vociferously asserting its sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, which are claimed in whole or in part by five countries in addition to China. But some chinks in China’s wall have been appearing, most notably an oil exploration pact with the Philippines. Nationalism is clearly taking a back seat to energy security.
Posted by: b | Sep 3 2004 12:04 utc | 9
No relief in Indonesian oil slump
If you think soaring oil prices are a windfall to OPEC member Indonesia, you are wrong. Although Indonesia holds proven oil reserves of 4.7 billion barrels, that figure is down by 13% since 1994. The solution to the downward trend is exploration and new discoveries, but industry bickering and other problems cloud the future.
Posted by: b | Sep 3 2004 12:07 utc | 10
@B:
Yeah, I really like that tar pit link by Marcin.
Going to try to read it carefully tonight. I’m fascinated by all the information I get on the oil threads. I’m trying to learn more about the subject. I’ve been out of touch with the subject for a while.
Keep it coming.
Posted by: NoName | Sep 3 2004 12:44 utc | 11
Some water news from Pakistan
Low rains in Pakistan
LAHORE – Pakistan faces worst ever water crisis in the history mainly due to rain shortfall in the river catchment areas during the current monsoon season.
Apart from little rainfall, slow melting of snow due to pre-monsoon rains caused lowering of temperature during snow melting period at mountains that contributed to the crisis. The crisis is likely to create drought like situation in many parts of the country with dire implications for the agriculture sector.
…
Experts opined that due to the shortage of water in storage reservoirs there would be reduction of electricity generation in the country to a greater extent.
…
Agricultural experts believe that negligence of concerned quarters added to the magnitude of the crisis. They said that the water managers were well aware of the fact that there were less rains in the river catchment areas but they kept on utilising water foolishly. They claimed that water regulation was not proper. They revealed that even these days there was more water outflow than inflow at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma.
and Water shortage problem may worsen
LAHORE – Realising that water shortage is serious in the Kharif season and the situation may worsen in the coming Rabi crops in the later months of this year. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz would chair a crucial meeting to deal with the water crisis in Islamabad today
…
Earlier this week, Punjab Minister for Irrigation Amir Sultan Cheema had admitted 28 per cent water shortage for the current Kharif crop, and had projected 60 per cent water shortage for the Rabi crops. The monsoon season has now ended and the late sporadic rains have not been in the Tarbela and Mangla catchment areas.
…
The decision of closure of perennial canals was taken at a crucial time for the Kharif crops (cotton, rice and sugarcane) as these crops are fast approaching the ripening stage. The cotton and sugarcane crops would require last waters in end-September and early October while rice crop would need water by mid-October. The shortage of water may reduce the harvest, Pakistan had planned a record cotton crop but water shortage may effect that.
During the coming Rabi crops the wheat would require water from November onwards, and the water shortage may have adverse effects on the wheat harvest.
While we are lucky living with an overproduction of food, a bad season in Pakistan does mean hunger and probably death. We should be more aware of this. Hungry people tend to behave unruly and Pakistan in not in the most peaceful area of the world.
Posted by: b | Sep 4 2004 16:52 utc | 12
Renewable energy can solve the problem of electricity generation. There are many alternatives: wind power, photovoltaics, solar thermal heating and cooling, hydro, biomass. And other novel solutions are emerging:
Wave energy: Wave Dragon
Concentrated solar thermal energy: OVERVIEW OF SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGIES
Hot Dry Rock Technology: Soultz project
But regarding liquid fuels for transportation, the short and medium problems are huge. We are in a pre-peak transition period and demand for oil grows faster than supply. Of course it will not be the end of the world, but a period of geopolitical instability and volatility in oil prices.
Even if oil is abundant, it is not sure that it will be open to exploitation or that the oil companies will prefer oil exploration than other solutions.
NYT, through IHT, says that New oil proves elusive, and alarm bells ring
According to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm, six of the 10 largest oil companies have cut their investments in exploration since 1998. Together, the world’s leading companies spent $8 billion drilling for oil last year; in 1998, they spent more than $11 billion. The number of wells drilled in the 11 full members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 6.5 percent in 2003 from the year before…
But while exploration activity is in decline, oil companies are stepping up production and spending more on existing projects. According to Wood Mackenzie, the top 10 oil companies spent $50 billion on field development in 2003, up 42 percent from 1998.
VW has a very interesting strategy and vision for the transition period. They believe not only in biodiesel and bioethanol, but also in the necessity of synthetic oil via 3 Fischer-Tropsch processes: Gas to Liquids, Coal to Liquids and Biomass to Liquids. I think this will be the general trend.
Note that the chinese are seriously contemplating a strategic shift to Coal to Liquids with SASOL technology
Posted by: Greco | Sep 7 2004 12:33 utc | 13