Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 27, 2004
Dear Comrades

Through Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg and Dr.”Gloom” Marc Faber we got our hands on a transcript of a speech held at a meeting of the Central Economic Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. The speaker is unknown but is believed to be in a very high party position.

“Dear Comrades,

One of the next days we will publish our paper on the “Ruling Capacity of the Party”. Let me cite three passages:

We should always put national sovereignty and security in the first place and firmly safeguard state security.

Hostile forces are still pursuing their strategic attempts to westernize and separate our country.

We will effectively guard against and deal with various risks from the international economic field, so as to safeguard China’s political, economic, cultural and information security.

The US cronies at the IMF, the G-7 and the World Bank are putting pressure on us to loosen the peg of our Yuan to the US-Dollar. If we would do so, the US-Dollar could slowly devalue against all Asian currencies and the US economy could move back on a sustainable path. For now we do some cheap talk of planed revaluation to calm them down.

A week US Dollar is NOT in our interest.

The United States have fulfilled their long dream and occupied Iraq to achieve control over Middle Eastern commodities. They are fighting our interests in Sudan and Iran. They are engaged in various Central Asian countries at our north western border. They are even selling German made submarines, offensive weapons with cruise missiles, to the illegal government of our province Taiwan.

We continue actively to buy large amounts of US securities, especially treasuries, to keep the Yuan value bound to the US Dollar. We now have accumulated some US$ 500 billion in such instruments. There are three major positive effects to this:

  • We enable the US Federal Reserve to keep the interest rates low in spite of the huge US deficits and we thereby induce the US consumer to buy more of our goods and services.
  • We make the US manufacturing and service industries uncompetitive and force them to move to Asia, teaching our workers the skills we will need in the future.
  • We make imports to our country expansive and induce our people to save and to invest their money into our industrial build-up.
There are also negative effects, like some increased inflation here. But for now we are able to control these by central administrative means.

There is no chance that this scheme will work into eternity. But there is a good chance that we, the Party, can determine the point in time where a break will occur. Until then we will use the accumulated dollars to build significant strategic reserves of all commodities and increase the abilities of the People’s Liberation Army and especially the People’s Liberation Army’s naval forces.

At some point, for some reason, the US, in their quest of world domination, will threaten us – either directly through military means or indirectly through the oil lever. That will be the right moment do de-peg the Yuan, devalue the US Dollar and throw the treasuries we own onto the international markets.

US treasury rates will then increase immediately to double digit values, the US economy will falter first into recession and then into a Weimar like hyperinflationary depression.

Then we will pick up what is left over from the US empire paying the cheap price of some paper losses in our US security portfolio.

Comrades, lets work to keep the US dollar strong, very strong, for the glory of the Party and the wellbeing of the people of China.”

Comments

@B:
You exhibit a very cutting and cunning thought process.
I imagine the Chinese are pursuing some such policy as this.
I also imagine that they have thought it all the way through.
Inscrutable yellow peril indeed.

Posted by: Sir Dennis Nayland Smith | Sep 27 2004 14:42 utc | 1

it is the general probability that the dollar MUST
fall w. respect to the yuan/
keep falling w. respect to the euro
that makes me want to shift my retirement account to euro-based investments

Posted by: mistah charley | Sep 27 2004 15:18 utc | 2

Great topic. I would like to quote myself from the Whisky Bar:

Is it possible, that the only thing that the Chinese leadership has on it’s mind is long-term (30-40 years) geo-political power? They must be aware, that they are a dumping ground for greenbacks, but they just don’t care.
They see the benefits: exports-fueled growth, transfer of know-how, transfer of industrial infrastructure. They wouldn’t want to risk stopping that, so they play the let-me-do-the-job-for-you game. They take into account, that some day all that green paper will be worthless.
Posted by: MarcinGomulka at February 10, 2004 02:37 PM

To parafrase Kissinger, you can not have an empire without industrial infrastructure and base your national income solely on show business and intellectual property rights.
For companies, the transfer of production to China is a suicidal strategy in the long run. As an example, the German fridge producer Liebherr did that. Their business partner screwed them and is making now EXACT copies under the trademark Haier. It’s the same with cars and everything else.

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Sep 27 2004 16:57 utc | 3

Another shameless selfquotation:

there was na excellent interview with Jean-Luc Domenach, the french sinologe and historian in the polish press. my quick translation:
What is China’s policy on international arena?

– They are looking forward to the showdown with the USA. They know, that they will have to wait 40 years for that moment, when China becomes an economic superpower. I have no doubt about that and every discussion with the people in power confirms my belief. The Chinese thinking is dominated by dialectics in line with the logic, ally with whom against whom. This kind of thinking led the Soviet Union to the Molotow-Ribbentrop Pact [ August 1939, a secret pact with the 3rd Reich; determined spheres of influence ].

Where do these emotions come from?

– China wants a historic revenge with The West for past humiliations, for opium wars, for everything, that we have forgotten about, but they did not.

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | August 19, 2004 04:03 PM

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Sep 27 2004 17:09 utc | 4

@Marcin;
Is that the same Liebherr that also produces these:
Link

Posted by: Caterpillar | Sep 27 2004 17:12 utc | 5

@Caterpillar – yes it is: Liebherr

Posted by: b | Sep 27 2004 17:16 utc | 6

From Bernhard’s “intrests in Sudan” link, comes a subtle corporate confirmation of why Cheney so craftily marketed this war to Bush:

This is because, to quote a recent Deutsche Bank report, every aspect of China’s energy industry seems to be on the rise except for oil production. “China was a net oil exporter during the last (1991) Gulf war and was insulated from the supply disruption that ensued,” the authors said. “The US invasion of Iraq served as a wake-up call to China.”

The war was an oil grab from every perspective except from Bush’s wooden puppet eyes. That poor dolt of a leader really believes he fighting terrorists and creating democracy for Jesus.
He is the perfect stooge for the stage.
And Cheney has pulled his strings to perfection.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Why should the book about Farber:
Riding the Millennial Storm
be selling for $150 used?
Do I need a friend in China to get me a bootleg copy?

Posted by: koreyel | Sep 27 2004 17:53 utc | 7

@koreyel – Reading Faber – I can recommend his book “Tomorrows Gold” and his columns at AME info fn

Stefen Roach on US Dollar, China peg and the consequences in todays Collision Course

The world economy is on a collision course. The United States — long the main engine of global growth and finance — has squandered its domestic saving and is now drawing freely on the rest of the world’s saving pool. East Asian central banks — especially those in Japan and China — have become America’s financiers of last resort. But in doing so, they are subjecting their own economies to mounting strains and increasingly serious risk. …

Posted by: b | Sep 27 2004 18:08 utc | 8

Liebherr vs Haier – from the German point of view

Dem Liebherr-Konzern klaute sein chinesischer Joint-Venture-Partner nicht nur die Technik für Kühlschränke, sondern auch gleich den chinesischen Namen, Haier. Inzwischen ist Haier eine rein chinesische Firma, hat eine Fabrik in Amerika und den Deutschen längst den asiatischen Markt abgejagt. […] Produktklau gilt in China nicht als Verbrechen, sondern als Kunstform. Maler, die andere Künstler bis auf den letzten Pinselstrich kopieren, genießen hohes Ansehen.

quick-n-dirty translation: The Chinese JV-partner stole not only the technology from the Liebherr corporation, but also the name, Haier. Haier is now a pure Chinese company, has a factory in America and took away the Asian market from the Germans. Product theft is not treated as a crime in China, but as an Art. Painters, who copy other artists into the smallest detail, receive high respect.
Art. Kind of explains it all. I do not blame the Chinese, they do what is best for them. But the PhB suit who helped to screw his own company for short term profits is a moron. And anybody who follows the moron…, well “…fool me twice…”.
(why does this situation remind me of the corporate hack from “Aliens II”?)

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Sep 27 2004 18:39 utc | 9

as i learned in economics 101 – “supply and demand” – books are expensive when those who have them can charge a lot to those who want them – and those who want them are willing to pay for them
how about one thousands dollars for a pulp paperback novel? well, if it’s “sisters”, by mrs. cheney, with lesbian love scenes, that’s what people are willing to pay
who knows if it’s good or bad?

Posted by: mistah charley | Sep 27 2004 19:32 utc | 10

Thanks, Berhnard, for posting the remarks by Faber. I’ve been in the middle of the China currency debate from a different perspective — the political. I’ve actually written some legislation for US Congressmen, as well as legislative history, remarks, etc., all calling for the United States to push China to float the RMB. I am continually struck by the near-total lack of sophistication or foresight by these politicians, not to mention their complete failure to think through the basics of international currency policy. It’s quite simple, really. US manufacturers know that production has moved to China; that China pegs the RMB to the dollar; that lots of people say the RMB is undervalued; and that if the RMB were allowed to float, it would rise, making Chinese exports more expensive and US products more competitive.
I won’t even start to go through all the potential fallacies in this line of reasoning. Rather, what I find most striking is the failure of US politicians to think through the potential consequences of what will happen if they get what they want, and the RMB floats. While Chinese exports would become more expensive, they would not necessarily become so expensive as to make US production competitive. At least in the short run, higher prices means higher inflation. A stronger RMB means that the Chinese can buy US products (primarily commodities) more cheaply, driving up their prices in the US as well. The Chinese can also buy US assets and technology more cheaply, making them more competitive in the long run.
Of course, if the dollar is weaker, investors are less likely to want to hold dollar-denominated assets. This means US interest rates will rise, which will (1) make it even more expensive for the US to finance its burgeoning current account and budget deficits; (2) encourage the Japanese, Chinese and other foreign borrowers to cut down on their US bond holding; (3) drive up the US federal budget deficit by increasing interest costs; (4) pop the property bubble that has been the main source of US economic growth; and (5) push over the economic edge consumers holding debt equal to around 200% of GDP.
The economic consequences of forcing China to float the RMB could be profound — and the politicians aren’t thinking about this at all. I am not an expert on the economics of exchange rates, and will gleefully admit that I have no business making exchange rate policy. Yet even I have given this more thought than the politicians who are making decisions that will have lasting effects on the world economy. Fortunately, the Chinese policy makers tend to take a longer view than US politicians do. Unfortunately, I truly doubt that the Chinese government has the expertise at all levels to make the right choices; I don’t think there is a Chinese equivalent of Robert Rubin or Larry Summers during the Asian financial crisis of 1998.
Sometimes economics is a negative sum game, and I have the awful feeling that’s where we’re headed.

Posted by: Aigin | Sep 27 2004 19:35 utc | 11

redundant rant: liebherr is http://www.liebherr.de
nice speech, comrade bernhard. a chinese would have said it in such a direct manner only if in very agressive mood and absolutely sure the resulting american rage would be of no consequence. i dont think we’ll ever hear any chinese talk like this. instead, the US will go with a wimper and overnight the world will be confronted with china as a new superpower, very probably – and hopefully – by far not as criminal as the americans.
and since everybody is talking in german today, my own words in front of the ZKdKPC re. the americans would be
“lieber ein ende mit schrecken als ein schrecken ohne ende”
this translates to “better a horrible end than horror without end”. just lets wait and see grover norquist and his asshole friends downsize america while the chinese patiently wait to step in and drown her in a toilet bowl and pump her full of gauge 12 rounds.

Posted by: name | Sep 27 2004 19:53 utc | 12

Yikes! Bernhard, that’s the most shrill entry by Stephen Roach I’ve ever read. The latest in a long line of shrill finger-waggings. And one of the longest. I hereby induct Mr. Roach into the Ancient and Hermetic Order of the Shrill as a Shrill Cabalist.

Posted by: Harrow | Sep 28 2004 1:30 utc | 13

Having said that, Roach has a good counter-argument against Dr. Gloom…

China is hurtling down an increasingly unstable path by mismanaging its domestic and international finances. Inflation is now on the rise in this overheated economy and could well continue to accelerate until China shifts its macro policy settings (monetary, fiscal, and currency) into restraint. A failure to do that is a recipe for the dreaded hard landing.

…Not so much against China’s motivations for helping to finance the current account deficit, but against the idea that China can patiently wait until they’re ready to deploy their diabolical dollar death-ray. And there’s the fact that Japan still has foreign exchange reserves more than 70% bigger than China – the Bank of Japan may well dump those bonds in the future, but it’ll be because the game has become unsustainable, not to punish the US.

“One day disaster will strike, and we we’ll lose a lot of money on our bonds and dollar positions,” said Faber, still play- acting the part of a Chinese official. “This is a small penalty to pay for the transfer of technology and manufacturing and investments into our country.”

Well, maybe this would happen if there was a big enough political crisis in Asia. But a small penalty? How about the value of dollar assets declining by hundreds of billions of dollars? How about a catastrophic plunge in exports to China’s biggest export market? It’ll be a blood bath all around. Will it be worth the technology transfers that China could have gotten anyway by virtue of being a huge and attractive market?

Posted by: Harrow | Sep 28 2004 4:07 utc | 14

Fortunately, the Chinese policy makers tend to take a longer view than US politicians do. Unfortunately, I truly doubt that the Chinese government has the expertise at all levels to make the right choices; I don’t think there is a Chinese equivalent of Robert Rubin or Larry Summers during the Asian financial crisis of 1998.

I am not so sure about ancient Chinese wisdom and the long-view and all that.
Seems to me that if you had any kind of central control on a contemporary country’s economic development, you’d want to criss-cross your country with high-speed rail. You’d want to use your brains to high advantage to really find a solution to the fundamental problem of transportation.
To bite into the festering apple of hydorcarbon car-culture at this late date–which apparently the Chinese are doing most blissfully–is to set yourself up for future gastritis willfully.
And that comment is just as valid even if Prof. Gold’s theory of oil as a renewable resource is correct.
The problem is of course global warming. Any long view that ignores that view isn’t worth a bucket of smog.
Right now–I can’t even imagine the world 40 years from now as being much of a joyful place. And I tend towards optimism.
Global warming is going to totally discombobulate this planet. Totally. You simple can’t pump that much smoke into the air year after year and not have serious repercussions.
Can’t. Possibly.
To be building freeways now, laying in refineries and pipelines is a lot like trying out coffins for softness.
Of course, I hope I am wrong.

Posted by: koreyel | Sep 28 2004 4:45 utc | 15

DJ UK PRESS: Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation
09/26/2004
Dow Jones News Services
( Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. )
LONDON ( Dow Jones ) –U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday’s Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.’s The Business newspaper reported.
Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.
Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in.

Fasten your seatbelt.

Posted by: b | Sep 28 2004 7:07 utc | 16

@koreyel
China plans 850km-long subways/light railways in cities

Sources close to the Ministry of Railways said that, during the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-05), the Chinese Government will pour 350 billion yuan (US$42.3 billion) into constructing railways.
Of this investment, 270 billion yuan (US$32.6 billion) will go to infrastructure and the remaining 80 billion yuan (US$9.7 billion) will be used to buy rolling stock.
Meanwhile, an additional 800 billion yuan (US$96.7 billion) will be used for urban transportation, and at least 200 billion yuan (US$24.1 billion) will go to subway construction, said Guangming Daily.

Posted by: b | Sep 28 2004 7:11 utc | 17

As B pointed to, China is busy building fast-trains networks. But their problem is that they’re NOT centralised and dictatorial enough anymore, so everyone and their dogs is buying cars at an insane rate, and I suspect that upsetting too much the middle-class could well doom the Party. The only way to do this would be a Cultural Revolution redux by appealing to the masses, and it would be catastrophic for the economy and future development. Basically, they’re probably stuck, not because the leaders are fools, but because most of the people are, as is usually seen in European and American elections and polls.
As Harrow said, Japan still has the biggest reserves in the world. Which in itself is a reason enough not to take lightly the N Korean nukes. Bush is just a friggin insane fool to have let this issue fester that much. Halliburton stocks and oil prices won’t be of any interest if Tokyo gets nuked; it’s not as if there’ll be any world market anymore after that.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Sep 28 2004 8:40 utc | 18

the US will go with a wimper and overnight the world will be confronted with china as a new superpower, very probably – and hopefully – by far not as criminal as the americans.

I object! Votum separatum!
The Chinese system is build not on the idea of protection of individual liberty but on the premise, that the interest of the state is superior to the happiness of it’s people. Usualy that means the grandeur of the ruling elite. E.g., the organs of executed prisoners are used for transplantations, a lot of poor Chinese peasants have Aids because they donated blood for money. That is criminal!
The Chinese are only able to talk in pure power terminology, past humiliations, revenge, coalitions, etc. They had their own Marxist-Maoist creed, but they abandoned it for pure power. Their elite is corrupt and will prevent the emergence of democracy for as long as possible.
Remember Martin Luther King words on America: “I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed.” Liberals question American policies, when they see that they stray away from the course and do harm in the name of good. For instance, we question whether the Iraqis will receive the freedom they want, or only another strongman.
Even Reagan said : “Our nation too has a legacy of evil with which it must deal. The glory of this land has been it’s capacity for transcending the moral evils of our past.” Acknowledge your sins and don’t be a sinner in the future.

Posted by: MarcinGomulka | Sep 28 2004 17:52 utc | 19