Unintended Consequences – Moon of Alabama

August 18, 2004

Unintended Consequences

From gung-ho in Najaf to closing cinemas in Thailand:

Just five days after they arrived here to take over from Army units that had encircled Najaf since an earlier confrontation in the spring, new Marine commanders decided to smash guerrillas loyal to the rebel Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.
8-Day Battle for Najaf: From Attack to Stalemate

Imagine a Muslim army about to bomb the Vatican with the help of a few Christian mercenaries while the Pope is away, recovering from an angioplasty in London and silent about the whole drama. This is roughly what is happening in Najaf …
Besides the Shrine of Imam Ali, there are graves of other prophets of Allah – Prophet Adam and Prophet Noah. Abraham the patriarch and his son Isaac once bought land in Najaf in what is now called the Valley of Peace – none other than the gigantic Wadi al-Salaam, the world’s largest cemetery…
A unifying factor across Iraq

A U.S. warplane bombed Najaf’s vast cemetery as fighting with Shiite militants intensified…
Peace Bid & U.S. Bombs Hit Najaf

Iraqi Defence Minister Hazem al-Shaalan on Wednesday demanded Shiite militants in the holy city of Najaf surrender within hours, or the Iraqi troops would launch a large-scale attack on them.
Najaf militants given hours to surrender or face lesson

“We set ablaze an oil well in Amara. This is a simple warning to the government of [Prime Minister Iyad] Allawi and to occupation forces, that we will bomb the main south oil export line if they do not leave Najaf within 48 hours and end the siege,” said the statement signed by The Secret Action Group of The Imam Mahdi Army.
Violence flares as delegation quits Najaf

Oil prices surged over $47 a barrel on Wednesday on evidence that energy costs are not substantially slowing the economic growth that fuels oil demand and fresh threats by rebel militia against Iraqi oil facilities. …
Some Asian countries, increasingly worried about oil prices, are planning measures to conserve energy or to cushion its impact.
Thailand is drafting plans to encourage shops and cinemas to close early, while South Korea may consider cutting oil tax rates at the end of August, in a bid to shield the economy from red-hot oil prices.
Oil Hits Record, Rebels Hit Iraqi Wells

Posted by b on August 18, 2004 at 14:17 UTC | Permalink

Comments

In the 80s the US funded and prompted and delighted in the Iraq/Iran inter-arab war.
I suspect Reagan thought his support was the Christian thing to do…
And now–to paraphrase Ron– “here we go again”: only this time we got the Iraqi’s doing the internecine emasculation dance.
Does a sentence akin to “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” appear anywhere in the Bible?
Because I tell ya: this bold Christian nation sure has a knack for getting arabs to kill arabs.
[Aside:
It is the strangest thing.
But everytime my eyes read the phrase Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, my brain somehow rewires it to read: Prince Allawi. Everytime. ]

Posted by: koreyel | Aug 18 2004 14:49 utc | 1

As if there is not enough going on in the middle east we now have another line in the sand
I wonder how this is going to shake out. Lots of folks who hang out here seem to think we will see sometime in October. I just hope we continue to have winds that blow toward the south (away from me) so that nasty fallout lands on somebody else.

Posted by: Dan of Steele | Aug 18 2004 16:19 utc | 2

four civilians were killed and another four injured when caught in crossfire between “multi-national forces“ and “anti-Iraqi forces,“ according to a military statement.

Sad news from the Washington Post Sadr Signals He Will Accept Peace Plan.
But why are they using quotation marks? Did they ran out off kool-aid?

Posted by: b | Aug 18 2004 18:03 utc | 3

Do these guys look intelligent or what? An Najaf, August 18th
Mays, a young Iraqi weeps after her uncle was injured by mortar fire, Najaf, August 18th
Basra, August 18th
Patrolling Basra’s streets, August 18th
Mother and son, Mosul, after mortar attack that killed 6 and injured over 20 – August 18th
And lo, Jesus went in among the poor and the wretched and the downtrodden – and fought against them. Captain Jesus Salas, 1st Cavalry Division, Sadr City, Baghdad, August 18th
Building under US fire, Najaf, August 18th
Locals, Sadr City, August 18th
Preparing mortar, Sadr City, August 18th
Not coming to your pumps – oil tanker, Tikrit, August 18th

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 18 2004 19:52 utc | 4

b,
I would wait a little while for the truth of whatever ‘deal’ al-Sadr believes he is involved in to be assessed against the ‘al-Sadr capitulates to threats from rough, tough, big strong Allawi government’ line being spun frantically at the moment.
Al-Sadr’s position, militarily, in Najaf may not be a strong one even though his militia is well capable of sitting it out in a defensive posture for the foreseeable future. It is not al-Sadr’s stock which has been falling with every passing day that US forces have been unable to dislodge or defeat him. And his militia is not broken in Sadr City, Basra or other centers.
There is a propaganda war being waged to marginalize, demonize and limit the growing popularity of al-Sadr and it serves Allawi above all others to present the current talks and the outcome as a form of capitulation.
Currently al-Sadr is still calling for a halt to US military operations in and an American withdrawal from An Najaf and I suspect that his eventual terms, and his understanding of their import, will differ considerably from the line being spun at present.
It is unfortunate that the media engages in these ‘analysis wars’ because sooner or later we all have to return to the truth of a situation. And as we all know well, saying something is so doesn’t make it so.

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 18 2004 20:02 utc | 5

Well, Sadr already said he would “withdraw forces” from Najaf when the first truce was made months ago. Though it was meant as “non-local militias would withdraw, the others keep their guns”. So one can wonder how it’s interpreted by the Shiite insurgents this time. Probably not the same interpretation than the American one, for sure.
Koreyel: if I wanted to be cynical, I would say that right now Chinese, Russians and quite a lot of Europeans can say “there we go again” when watching Americans and Arabs, including some jihadi lunatics, going after each other. Not that they won’t feel the spillover sooner or later; experience and history should show that when the a power encouraged Afghans and Soviets to go at each other’s throat, it came back to haunt it.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Aug 18 2004 20:14 utc | 6

No surprises to this story – other than it got out…
US troops training for Iraq in Israel – report

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 2:53 utc | 7

Make-up tips –How to look good with the use of cosmetics
It wasn’t last year’s bomb but American policy which destroyed the UN’s hopes in Iraq…
…Clearly, the Bush administration had eagerly sought a UN presence in occupied Iraq as a legitimising factor rather than as a partner that could mediate the occupation’s early end, which we knew was essential to averting a major conflagration….
I lived to tell the tale
Doubts over al-Sadr peace deal
Incidentally, fighting has been raging all through the night in Najaf. It is 7.10am in Iraq now and the fighting has not let up.
Chaos and farce as Iraq chooses first assembly
…There also are the untold thousands of Iraqis dead and wounded as well. But, as one Pentagon spokesman told me, “They don’t count….”
Kerry deals away his ace in the hole

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 3:11 utc | 8

HOW MANY bad apples? Depends on what you mean by ‘a few’ I guess…
US Army poised to charge 24 people in Abu Ghraib case

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 3:39 utc | 9

Clashes erupt in Najaf despite peace plan
‘Slightly over 50’ Iraqis killed in Sadr City fighting – US military

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 7:44 utc | 10

TomDispatch has part two of his Iraq series online: http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=1687 He has some interesting stuff about the US strategy in Iraq and much to say about the US media and the words choosen do describe the imperia and it´s enemies.

Posted by: b | Aug 19 2004 13:16 utc | 11

@b
Thanks for the TomDispatch link.
Show really how much the media is in the control of the Neocons.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Aug 19 2004 14:04 utc | 12

Waco, Texas — Militia groups and others who don’t trust the government use one word when making their case: Waco.

They still get angry over the deaths of nearly 80 people a decade ago in an inferno at a religious compound near Waco, ending the group’s 51-day standoff with federal agents.
—-
Why are the Iraqis that wear those fine business suits so eager to wack the robed Iraqis holed up in their religious compound?
Is some puppeteer yanking them by their red ties into the fray? Or are they just overseas-ignorant to the lifelong firestorm they will unleash upon themselves?
True the Branch Davidian’s were Christians…and those holed up in Najaf are dirty Muslims–but shouldn’t Al-Sadr be given at least 51 days to stew in his pot as well?
Or are we seeing yet again that the puppeteers just don’t like to do nuance/negoitiation very much?
After all blowing things up is not only more expedient…but much more fun too.

Posted by: koreyel | Aug 19 2004 17:18 utc | 13

Images of conflict
Outgoing – sending the British a message, Basra, August 18th
More shadow than substance – Condoleezza Rice speaks of ‘Waging the War of Ideas in the Global War on Terror’, Washington, August 19th
Why does everyone say that George Bush and I have some kind of sick relationship? Let’s be perfectly frank – George isn’t all that big a guy – know what I mean?
Pro-Allawi Iraqi military forces, the governor’s residence, Najaf, August 19th
Scene of the clash of superpowers – Najaf, August 19th. A place where relatively small numbers of Iraqi people armed with light weaponry are holding off the military might of the USA
US soldier SFC Shannon Compton from 2/7 Cavalry and the Oregon National Guard locates the source of a suspicious bright light he believed militiamen were using to illuminate his fellow soldiers in Najaf. The light is known to most people as ‘the sun’
Worried looking US troops, Najaf, August 19th
American peace-making, Najaf, August 19th
US airstrike, Najaf, August 19th
Second airstrike, Najaf, August 19th
American respect for the Holy City of Najaf, August 19th
Unbroken, Najaf, August 19th
….Analysts expect many of the fence-sitters within Iraq’s Shiite community to turn decisively on the US presence and the interim government if they damage the mosque and martyr Sadr…..
Besieging holy sites past lessons

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 20:07 utc | 14

Comment to Nemo´s list:
Bloomberg: Al-Sadr Rebellion’s Defeat Tied to Allawi’s Success, Oil Flow

The defeat of Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s rebellion is critical to Iraq’s political transition and increased oil production, Iraqi officials and U.S. policy analysts said. …
At stake are the flow of Iraqi oil, elections in Iraq scheduled for January and support for President George W. Bush in the U.S.

Posted by: b | Aug 19 2004 21:04 utc | 15

Media relations in the ‘new free Iraq’ (“You can’t handle the truth” – and someone doesn’t want you to even know it)
“We are going to open fire on this hotel. I’m going to smash it all, kill you all, and I’m going to put four snipers to target anybody who goes out of the hotel. You have brought it upon yourselves.”
An Iraqi police lieutenant to journalists in Najaf.
In Iraq, stifling press undermines democracy

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 21:08 utc | 16

It is 2.30am in Iraq and a massive US aerial bombardment of Najaf has begun, accompanied by a major tank assault. Der Tag comes in the early morning sometimes for Iraqis.

Posted by: Nemo | Aug 19 2004 22:31 utc | 17

Tomorrow is the day of prayers in all muslim counties. What will be the message given from the pulpit?

Posted by: b | Aug 19 2004 22:35 utc | 18

@nemo
It’s all fucked up for Bush and Blair. Sadr may well be killed in the last offensive but with Sistani being away, he’s the shi’ite hero.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Aug 19 2004 22:39 utc | 19

Washington Post: For Iraqis Preparing to Invade Shrine, First an Internal Battle reports who the Iraqi troops are, that are training to storm the Najaf shrine.

“Training-wise, we’re ready,” said Lt. Col. Yarab Hashimi, who was a pilot in the Iraqi armed forces until he escaped the country in 1993.
…
Hashimi said he regards the designation of shrines as a tradition imported from India, and not essential to Shiite belief. Of the Imam Ali shrine, he said, “It is not a holy place.”
That appears to be a distinctly minority view, even among his 500 men.
…
The battalion is a deliberately motley collection that is eight months old. U.S. trainers drew its members from the five exile opposition groups that joined with the U.S.-led military forces that toppled the government of Saddam Hussein.
Each of the groups was asked to contribute 120 men: the two Kurdish parties, the Iraqi National Congress headed by Ahmed Chalabi, the Iraqi National Accord headed by current Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiite group then based in Iran.
Chalabi’s Iraqi National Congress provided the core, a pickup team of fighters hastily assembled in the Kurdish-held north of Iraq and flown south during the war, when Chalabi’s star still burned brightly in the Pentagon. Today, about half the battalion is Kurdish, a disproportionate share, in part because volunteers from the Shiite party chose to step down rather than fight Iraqis in Fallujah, according to one adviser. Others dropped out as the battle for Najaf loomed.

My take: Without US troops entering the Shrine with them (and without the consequences), these guys will not be able to do anything significant.

Posted by: b | Aug 20 2004 8:10 utc | 20

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