For a few moments sanity has -maybe-, -hopefully- resurfaced as US troops have halted their planed total assault on Al Sadr´s fighters in Najaf. Any attack on Najaf´s shrine of Imam Ali, where Al Sadr is trying to give himself the same cloud as Imam Ali himself, would be the equivalent of the total destruction of the Vatican and killing of the Pope by non Christians. US troops, NYT: says, would probably be eager to do this:
… American commanders are anxious to win a high-profile victory after their efforts this spring to oust Mr. Sadr from Najaf’s old city and take control of Falluja ended in truces that did not achieve the American goals.
But maybe the Vice President of Iraq and the high priest of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had a delaying say in the issue, as maybe had some 1,300,000,000 Muslim who regard the ongoing bombarding of the holy Najaf graveyard of 2,000,000 buried Shia by some 5,000 US troops as slightly out of decency.
On a second though, this may not be the real reason to take a break.
Chalabi being back in Iraq and his allied South Iraq Shia threatening succession seem also not important enough to stop Rumsfeld to demonstrate his virility.
The reason for this reaction:
“An armored column idling at the main gate turned around and went back into the camp, and commanders said planning for the offensive had been extended.(WaPo)
looks more likely to be based on this threat of action:
“If the U.S. forces attacked Najaf tonight, we will blow up the oil pipelines,” Sheikh Asaad al-Basri, the leader of the Mehdi militia loyal in the southern city of Basra, told Reuters.
Somebody may be calculating the advantage of the publicity of a decisive victory against Al Sadr versus a hefty increase of the price at the pump. Could this be decisive at the election booth?
How sensitive this theme is, can be seen on today’s action in the oil market:
Saudi Arabia sought to soothe oil markets Wednesday by saying it could immediately pump an extra 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, an increase of 1.5 percent in global output. link
Some people panicked and sold their oil futures even though any marginal expert knows that there is no way for the Saudis to increase production in the short term.
“If they were hoping to break the back of the rally with just that, it’s not going to come to fruition,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of the energy risk management group at Fimat USA Inc. (link)
After the news above hit the tickers, Light Sweet Crude dropped from $44.quite-high to $43.medium within a few minutes – and some hedge funds lost some millions of Dollars on this move.
Just a few minutes later:
US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories drained lower last week, according to the latest government survey.link
hit the ticker tapes.
The person who called Riyadh to get the Saudi quote before the official US government survey hit the tape did get the wanted reaction: Light Sweet Cude Oil did not break the $45 barrier today!
(And if he/she is somehow competent, his/her hedges did a 50% jump UP).
Unfortunately, there is yet no line between Rove´s office in the White House and Al Sadr´s headquarter in Iman Ali´s shrine, so coordination for the next slump/rise cycle will take some time and the troops will have to wait to blow the dome of the holy shrine until the required communication is established and any action is coordinated.
