For those of you with no stats karate, the CJR Cmapaign Desk has a nice wee article on what the ‘margin of error’ is, and how to interpret it. The bottom line is this:
In fact, in 32 national polls conducted over the last month by 21 reputable polling firms, only two have a revealed a candidate (in both cases Kerry) with a clear lead outside the margin of error.
I’d be pretty surprised if either corportate candidate in this race gets to a point where they pull far enough ahead to have a statistically significant (at p < .05) lead, across different pollsters and consistantly. However, should that happen, it still isn't terribly indicitive given the electoral collage system. Given that, state-wide polls are probably the best data to base any forcasts on.

Posted by: æ | Aug 6 2004 15:22 utc | 1