Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 25, 2004
Not just the Right but the Duty

In an article for the Toronto Sun (thanks to Fran) Eric Margolis writes on Iran new U.S. whipping boy

This column has long predicted the Bush administration would orchestrate a pre-election crisis over Iran designed to whip up patriotic fervour in the U.S. and distract public and media attention from the Iraq fiasco.

The growing clamour over Iran’s nuclear intentions, with rumblings about air strikes against Iran’s reactors in the fall, may prove to be a part of just such a manufactured crisis.

Remember, these latest fevered claims about Iran come from the same “reliable intelligence sources” and neo-conservative hawks who insisted Iraq had a vast arsenal of weapons of mass destruction that threatened the U.S., with intimate links to al-Qaida.

The bad thing is – it will work just as it did before. And the US public will support it – just as they did before.
Walter Mead of the Council of Foreign Relations in todays LA Times: A Darker Shadow Than Iraq

The U.S. may wind up facing in Iran the choice our intelligence agencies told us we faced in Iraq: between military action against a rogue regime or allowing that regime to assemble an arsenal of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

This choice is not yet inevitable, and the diplomats still have some tricks up their sleeves, but the U.S. is closer than many think to what could well be the biggest and most difficult crisis in the war on terror yet.

By setting a “choice” that is obliviously preframed, this article, as others, is also setting the answer. The American political class, media and electorate did answered to a similar “choice” before and will answer the same way now that the question is asked again (of course they will be promised, that everythings will work out better this time).

The real question, choice and answer is of course a different one.

Has the souvereign nation of Iran, within reach of nuclear weapons of at least Pakistan, Russia, Israel and the US and sitting on huge amounts of some very valuable commodities, the right to decide to aquire the (historically working) deterance of nuclear weapons?

Niki, a female Iranian blogger, has this answer:

i am against militarization of all kinds, especially the nuclear sort. and you wont be surprised to hear that i am not crazy about the idea that such weapons would be at the disposal of the highly volatile and contested iranian regime.

However, we do live in a time where certain countries not only brazenly invade sovereign nations in clear violation of international law, but also expect those formerly independent nations to become permanent military bases for the invaders, to ultimately pay for the invasion from their natural resources (not to mention with their blood), and to be grateful and humble to boot.

so given this, yes, you are right, from the point of view of the iranian government who witnessed what happened to iraq despite its cooperation with the teams of inspectors who were poking in every nook and cranny for years, it is in fact a rational act of self defense to end cooperation with inspectors and pursue nuclear weapons.

of course you wont hear me say that i think it is a good idea for them to do so.

but if for a moment i distance myself from my views on the current iranian regime and shift the focus to the iranian people–each time i think of the possibility of cluster bombs dropped on civilians, foreign soldiers protecting our oil fields while our ancient relics are looted and destroyed, an occupation army which gleefully rapes and humiliates teenage boys and young men raped and humiliated, or jerks emailing me lectures on “collateral damage” and the “costs of freedom”–i find myself closer to the idea that the iranian regime has not just the right but the duty to protect its citizens from the onslaught of invaders who have as much regards for international law and human rights as does the regime itself.

How would you answer the question?

Comments

Back from a weekend away.
Maybe they might frame 911, the second, properly now.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 25 2004 18:37 utc | 1

Excellent post. Niki’s comments are, of course, completely on the money.
What has been especially appalling since the new set of “revelations” about Iran, is the number of Democrats on liberal blogs critisizing Bush for killing the wrong muslims – that he should have gone after Iran – the real enemy. We also have Michael Ignatieff, the director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard, a Democrat, calling for more regime change, more torture, more detentions etc., in a recently released book ‘The Lesser Evil’: Fight Fire With Fire.
In any event, I agree with Bernhard that it is highly probable that Iran will be the next target of the “war on terror” no matter what the domestic political situation is here in the US since Israel will make that call.
My own prediction from a previous thread is that Israel will tell us they are going after the nuclear program and we will then pay them billions to allow us to do it for them.

Posted by: tgs | Jul 25 2004 18:40 utc | 2

@tgs
Surfing various websites, that I do, Iraq minister in the Shereymetevo(sic) airport wants Russian peacekeepers, WW3 is an “insurgent war”.
No brainer really, it was eventually to happen. Fireworks, and AQ is the biggest AQ asset. What with the Bin Laden’s being Carlyle substantial shareholder.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 25 2004 18:49 utc | 3

Russia Will Help Iraq Via Trade Not Troops

Russia said on Saturday it had no intention of contributing troops to the U.S.-led force in Iraq, but was prepared to help by developing trade and easing debt burdens.

Posted by: Bernhard | Jul 25 2004 19:04 utc | 4

> the iranian regime has not just the right but the duty to
> protect its citizens from the onslaught of invaders
i agree 100% with this, but the statement applies not only to iran but to any country. while the US steals openly from countries where brown people live, they steal covertly from everybody else by way of imposing economic “policies” via IMF and WB which serve only to drain wealth from those countries.
some israeli politician put it in another way: “nations without nuclear weapons will become vassal nations”. of course, israel, and the US, prefer that everybody stays a vassal to them.
personally, i can only hope that the iranians have the ability to make any attempt by the US or israel very very costly in terms of money and blood. if for nothing else, i’m sick of constantly seeing the bad guys winning.

Posted by: name | Jul 25 2004 19:38 utc | 5

The Spin Shit Doctors at the BBC talk about $6m being raised for the desparate people of Sudan, what was the cost of one of the cruise missiles that hit “No Threat” Iraq?

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 25 2004 19:41 utc | 6

@ cloned poster, bernhard
Despite official denials, I think the jury is still out on Putin’s plans for Iraq. If there was a significant financial incentive, I think Putin would consider sending troops – 40,000 was the figure I heard mentioned.
I seriously doubt that there will be any move in this direction until after the US elections – though dealing the Russians in could save Bush’s ass (though there are areas of his base that may not approve). It is a barometer of the level of greed of this administration that they are reluctant to give financial incentives to anyone.
In any event, 40,000 ‘Ivans’ in Iraq could free up our military to give additional democracy lessons to the mideast.

Posted by: tgs | Jul 25 2004 19:44 utc | 7

@name
I hope, given the Russian peacekeeping role being propogated in the internet media, that Iran has the bullet already.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 25 2004 19:48 utc | 8

@ Bernhard
nice post. Well I would answer with AMEN! Because there is nothing I can add to what Niki wrote and I am more and more at lose for words. What more can be said?
Well, maybe there is this example what good media and press can be – and inronically from Israel.
Jews between Israel and France – hope this is not to much OT.

Posted by: Fran | Jul 25 2004 20:14 utc | 9

Manufacturing Iranian Chalabis – Yesterday’s terrorists, today’s friends, tomorrow’s internal destabilization and fifth columnist strike force
Iran rebels say US-led coalition has granted them protected status in Iraq
Of course all the sabre-rattling being directed at Iran is music to the ears of the Saudis – traditional enemies of Iran, despisers of Shi3a Islam, rivals for influence in Kurdistan and other regions and home, of course, to fifteen of the nineteen Arabs who died in the September 11th 2001 attacks. Arab Saudi Arabia is also, unlike Persian Iran, home to the Wahhabi doctrine whose adherents financially and ideologically underpin the activities of al-Qaeda and associated groups throughout the entire Muslim world. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have charmed lives it seems, and now an Iranian ‘terrorist’ group is being rehabilitated to facilitate yet another attack on a sovereign state. Who is leading who by the nose?

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 25 2004 20:58 utc | 10

“Arab Saudi Arabia is also, unlike Persian Iran, home to the Wahhabi doctrine whose adherents financially and ideologically underpin the activities of al-Qaeda and associated groups throughout the entire Muslim world”
But AQ has declared that the current Saudi government is the enemy. Right? Is this another “we are killing the wrong muslims post?”

Posted by: tgs | Jul 25 2004 21:29 utc | 11

@ tgs
Yes, the Saudi regime should be overthrown and the country and its resources placed in the hands of its people so that they can develop them in their own interests. Elements of the current Saudi regime cynically pay off dissent by funding extreme groups in Kosovo, Bosnia, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, al-Yemen, Algeria, Pakistan, the Phillipines, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia and numerous other places (including the USA). ‘Exporting terror’ is a tactic to stave off real reform at home and maintain the grip the House of Saud has on power. Its fluctuating and conditional ‘support’ for the US is such that American foreign policy makers should be assessing whether the regimes’s long-term usefulness – to its own people, to Middle East stability or to US interests – is compatible with its current policy of smiling into American faces while bankrolling jihadist movements the world over.
Rather than ‘which Muslims should America bomb?’ the question would be better framed as ‘Why are some Muslims bombing America and American interests and supporters?’ There are reasons and they are neither mindlessly violent nor insoluble.
America has no legitimate right to attack, destabilize or in any other way interfere in the development of the Muslim world. If the worry is resources then the US must learn to take its chances in the world marketplace like any other trader. You won’t hear me calling for a single Muslim to be bombed – far from it.
Anything America gets, by way of retaliation, from the Muslim world is both deserved and at the same time avoidable. Any deterrents that Muslim nations possess, seek or acquire to resist American interference are perfectly legitimate in my view. Manifest Destiny might have been able to roll over some ill-armed Mexicans and helpless native American peoples but it isn’t going to pan out in the Muslim world.
I make the points I do about Saudi Arabia – and Pakistan – merely to emphasize the hypocrisy of the alleged ‘war on terror’. In the name of a ‘war on terror’ America is not only attacking uninvolved peoples but also pushing an imperialist agenda dressed up in ‘anti-terror’ rhetoric. It is doing this without addressing the real reasons for Muslim grievances and at the same time attempting to prop up the rotten regimes that feed those grievances simply because those rotten regimes, on the face of it, advance or maintain American interests.
Seen purely tactically, what the US is at is a schizophrenic policy that is doomed to failure but at the price of thousands – perhaps millions – of innocent lives. The change that has to come in the Muslim world is one that benefits Muslims first and it is the insertion of perceived American interests before this prerequisite that is fuelling violence.

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 25 2004 22:37 utc | 12

At first I find it easy to agree with Niki that Iran has a right and a duty to protect itself and its people from invasion. But given that the US government and other governments have used the “defending ourselves” justification as excuse or plain old bold-faced lie for using wholesale military violence for their own often shadowed benefit for decades upon decades, I now receive the phrase “defending ourselves and our people” (or the myriad paraphrases of the same meaning) as something mutilated and mangled beyond redemption. And I wonder what a Gandhi would say to Niki.
So now I sit (we all sit) waiting for the sound of yet another domino to tip over in the mad “might makes right” game, not wanting to wonder any more how it all ends, but knowing that I know a few of the possibilities.
“The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking, and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophes.”
– Albert Einstein

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 25 2004 22:40 utc | 13

@ Kate Storm
Or how about Einstein’s equally apposite “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” ?
If sticks and stones it is at least the Arabs have been getting plenty of practice…

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 25 2004 22:47 utc | 14

Nemo, Yes. I like that one too. I just found a site with a lot of Einstein quotes, saved for future pithy reference. 😉
Coincidentally, or not, I’m thinking of buying a slingshot and beginning to practice. Seriously. It came to mind yesterday.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 25 2004 23:06 utc | 15

I agree with Niki’s assement from the Iranians peoples point of view ie from the safety and sovereignty perspective.I would be curious,however,as to how all this plays for or against the democratic (r)evolution that was gaining some traction politically.Does the alledged crackdown on internet use within Iran show evidence a diminished movement toward the democratic?
It seems pretty clear that US middle east policy and the war in Iraq in particular, have not only strenghened AQ, but have had a chilling effect on democratic movements all over the region.It would seem that any repressive government in the region (all), would have to protect against the Islamists demands for power by exerting more controls over their populations(watching “our pals”Saudia Arabia and Uzbekistan) By taking the additional step (by the US) of invading and occupation of Iraq must surely further radicalize the fears of these governments, ensuring greater crackdown.AQ is not the friend of any government in the middle east, period. The US attempt to control AQ , so far,only serves to strengthen the grip of dictatorship and its inevitable persecution of democratic yearnings.

Posted by: anna mist | Jul 25 2004 23:47 utc | 16

Our “leaders” have been chomping at the bit to go after Syria or Iran for years, so it would not be a complete surprise if they try to orchestrate something this fall. But strictly in practical terms, wouldn’t they already have to have done the logistical planning and such if they were seriously thinking of a pre-November invasion? And with our military stretched so much just with Iraq, who are they going to send in to Iran…the daughters of the American Revolution? It does worry me, given the fantasies these people wove for themselves before they went into Iraq about how easy that would be, but I just don’t see how they can pull it off so quickly.

Posted by: maxcrat | Jul 26 2004 1:07 utc | 17

maxcrat,
Nah. They’ll do what they did in Afghanistan. Hit. Destroy. Leave a remnant and move. What comes next follows the old pattern. Yank all the troops from Iraq, leaving the wreckage behind, and go for Iran. It’s almost too predictable, and very much what the mongol hoards did when conquering Asia and much of Europe. Hit. Destroy. Leave a remnant. Move on. Come to think of it wasn’t this the MO of the late Roman Empire? Someone correct me if I’m wrong about this, but I AM detecting a pattern established of old. They are not thinking local success, they are thinking pillage, devastate. Control. Shock and awe, baby.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 1:20 utc | 18

@ maxcrat
Where is a large American fleet right now and what does it have ‘on board’?
The precipitation of a crisis and amplified fear and paranoia would be a more effective tactic than a ‘quagmire’ right now. An air attack is cheaper than an invasion too but carries a ‘satisfaction factor’ that conveys – however misguidedly -‘strength’, ‘revenge’, ‘determination’ et cetera, and some people seem to thrive on that kind of ‘comfort’.

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 26 2004 1:23 utc | 19

Haha… the fleet exercise? Swift response, my ass. LOL. That little disguise seemed thin as air to me when they deployed. Did you catch the USS Ronald Reagan coming to port with all the appropriate “news” coverage, complete with Nancy Reagan. There isn’t enough Pepto Bismol in the world to deal with the kind of stomach ache this kind of political pandering gives me.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 1:28 utc | 20

@ Kate Storm
It is indeed like watching a grotesque pantomime. As an apparently passive American public munches its popcorn and looks on the tendency to shout “No, no, look behind you!” is sometimes overwhelming.
Still, no matter how great these movers and shakers think they are they will all be like Ozymandias some day. As an example – Have you seen the muffin man?

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 26 2004 1:44 utc | 21

@Kate:
As I view it, the Romans were pretty good at the game:it was about winning, occupying, and staying.
Same with Alexander, same with the Brits. All these conquerors, coopted the “trustworthy” indigenous. Genghis Khan and his hordes same way in Asia, although they did play Shock and Awe, no follow up, most painfully in Poland,and Germany, circa 1248. Several of the Mongol empires in the East lasted 500 years.
Viewed Empirically(bad pun), the NeoClowns don’t have a grasp of history either.

Posted by: Marco Polo | Jul 26 2004 2:29 utc | 22

Marco: Viewed Empirically(bad pun), the NeoClowns don’t have a grasp of history either.
There’s a surprise, eh? 😉

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 2:31 utc | 23

Nemo,
I could think of worse fates than pastry, poetry and gardening. I like the “Muffin Man” moniker. Very nice.
As to Ozymandias, yes!
Look on my works. Ye Mighty, and despair!’, indeed.
I have an answering song. Suzanne Vega, “Song of Sand” … not Ozymandias but I can sing along.
If sand waves were sound waves
What song would be in the air now
What stinging tune
Could split this endless noon
And make the sky swell with rain
If war were a game that a man or a child
Could think of winning
What kind of rule
Can overthrow a fool
And leave the land with no stain.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 2:36 utc | 24

So ,when does the payoff come ,politically speaking here in the USA?For anybody.
Everyboby stands around the poker table watching with disbelief as the US throws more and more on the table,raising and raising, on that pair of 3’s.
I would propose that doing Iran now, would do to the electorate here in the US,in a weird inverted sort of way, what the Madrid bombing did to the Spanish electorate .It might awaken those asleep in the center to the irrefutable fact that the government really is on the neo-con empire building path, that they dont care if their intellegence is blind, their execution is lame,and their results are counterproductive(all at best). Most of all it would prove they would do anything to avoid calling the cards on the table.
So far the BabyB team has n o t h i n g to show for its efforts, expanding the unpredictable mess would only heighten and underline that fact, and thats why they wont do it.

Posted by: anna mist | Jul 26 2004 3:35 utc | 25

c-span had a show with Gary Hart and John Lewis Gaddis speaking before some group in Brooklyn, I think it was, about the current situation vis a vis the U.S. and the nations of the Middle East.
Hart said that America needs to discuss, openly, this new stage of empire. He sounded a warning about the dangers to our democracy if we go farther down this road.
(Hart didn’t call it a stage, but I think that the way Yalta divided much of the world into two empires, with wars fought outside of either’s established client states would seem to make the U.S. qualify as an empire at that time, if not long before.)
Gaddis talked about Jefferson Federal Empire as the justification of expansion, along with John Adams’ response to the burning of Washington by the British and the response of taking Florida and Texas as examples of our long-standing behavior as an empire. In other words, what we are doing now is biz as usual, and there is nothing wrong with it, and this is what our govt is going to do to protect this nation, because its duty is to do so.
Gaddis was so coldly “real politik” –chilling, really. But he stated that even if Kerry were to win the presidency, U.S. foreign policy (as others have expressed concerns for here) would not change because the concensus among the power brokers in this country is that, as an empire, we must and will do what Napoleon did in Europe.
Of course, what Napoleon did, whatever the opinion of these actions, is to conquer much of Europe and overthrow long-standing hereditary rulers and establish govts that modernized education and introduced a form of “republican empire.”
And that’s where we are now. Because of the attacks on 9-11, the powers-that-be have decided that the middle east must be remade with rulers who will impose a rule that does not threaten America.
…and this is what Americans are responding to when they respond positively to Bush…the idea that we can export “democracy” to others at the point of a gun and make our own homes safe.
…and this is what any and every politician has to address, and why the Democrats also voted for the Iraqi war resolution, and why there will be no great opposition to further military actions, especially in Iran, considering the previous engagement in the 70s between the U.S. and Iran, and considering the fear Americans have of a nuclear attack.
Of course, our national interests, as viewed by these grand strategists, coincides with Israel’s, but I do not think it is driven by Israel at all…tho Israel provides a nice distraction to blame. And all the talk for the American religious right nutcases is only a way to whip up support in terms that the Talibornagains will accept when sending their children off to war.
Gaddis offered the example of America’s alliance with Russia/Stalin against Hitler as a history lesson about our alliance with Saudi Arabia (and no doubt Pakistan) at this time.
But the House of Saud surely knows what is coming their way, too, if they do not find a way to stablize the problems in their own country other than by exporting them to other countries.
Who knows how this moment in history will play out? Who could have imagined, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, that twenty-five years later the Soviet Union would implode?
It’s somewhat easier to imagine that the proxy wars of the eighties would become THE issue now, because of the industrialized world’s need for oil to fuel their economies.
So, the real issue for the U.S. seems to be what group would be better to continue this policy. Kerry offers more carrot than stick to Europe…as Hart said, rather than trying to rethink or reform the U.N., BushCo smacked it upside the head.
Bush offers the neocons and their fetish for war. Kerry offers multilateral pressure or war.
Bush offers John Ashcroft’s Justice Dept to prosecute the threat of terrorism in America…vs…who knows who, but the generally accepted wisdom is that anyone would be better than Ashcroft.
But those are the choices this nation has at this time, whether we like them or not.
I feel resigned to this sad fact.
None of our leaders are going to disengage from the middle east, though some might try to build alliances and use other nations’ soldiers to do some of the fighting, if other methods don’t achieve the demanded result.
However, there is a place for those who offer dissent, too. If for no other reason than to curb the excesses of empirical power. Yet I don’t think we will stop this power.
No doubt, the U.S. will also cease to be an empire, as all empires eventually do. What happens in the meantime will be what we all live with and through.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2004 3:35 utc | 26

anna mist- that’s the issue in the U.S. right now…
no one in power wants to admit what the “game” is to the people of this country.
…some commentators are talking about it, of course, but you won’t hear this crucial issue discussed by our govt. because it would require Americans to think beyond the elementary school vision of who and what our nation is.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2004 3:43 utc | 27

fauxreal, for what it’s worth I don’t also think any of us can stop the juggernaut. More things shall be revealed and more suffering will come. The movers and shakers have said it shall be so, and it shall. I think we still need to plan for another something better, if we’re all still alive later.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 3:46 utc | 28

The old gunslinger straps on his six-shooter and lets fly – and says the new kid isn’t taking another posse anywhere
”…In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, Clinton called President Bush’s doctrine of pre-emption “a very tricky, slippery slope” that was “never realistic because we are not going to go to war with Iran or North Korea….”
Bill Clinton questions Bush on Iraq war
Has Bill been chatting to the grown-ups?

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 26 2004 4:00 utc | 29

The old gunslinger straps on his six-shooter and lets fly – and says the new kid isn’t taking another posse anywhere.
Hahaha! The child me of my father of the Montana outlaws loves this. Sometimes, even though you’ve said you won’t, it’s important to strap on the guns once in a while.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 4:08 utc | 30

fauxreal
Any day now I expect to see someone on TV explaining that because Viet-Nam is now a member of the family of nations,a trading partner,and on the path of democratic reforms, that we actually won the Viet-nam war, even if we won by loosing.(trying to beat David Brooks to the punch).
The short point I was trying to make above was, doing Iran is a much bigger ( starting WWIII level) proposition that would require something a little more than a vague “in our national interests” kind of debate. After Juan Coles interesting posts last week, any demonizing of Iran, as part of the war on terror,will require a major edifice fabrication,the contradictions being so many .While I have no doubt the Neo-Con bunch would love to invade Iran, the only victory that would be likely is that finally, Iraq really would look like a cake-walk.
As the justifications for Iraq have fallen away,I wonder whether,they would go to the “deep structure”reasoning
hinted at by Gary Hart,if they cant make the pap we’re so used to, fly anymore. When gas prices hit the high a few weeks ago,listening to someone from the administration wax sympathetically,it struck me that the leap from the war on terror,to the war on terrible gas prices might not be so great.

Posted by: anna mist | Jul 26 2004 5:19 utc | 31

anna mist- I wouldn’t doubt if the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iran as a “message” that they will not be allowed to further their weapons program…followed by weapons inspection negotiations, and the refusal to address the issue of nuclear weapons in Israel.
but I do agree with you that Iraq has not been as easy as the neocons thought it would be, and they are in for some nasty surprises if they think they can continue to expand empire without a larger army.
I think that because they are unwilling to tell the truth to Americans, or because they are unwilling to admit the amount of military required to accomplish their aims and the numbers of deaths such actions will cause for both Americans and for those people they plan to conquer, they are losing support.
of course, Bush’s economic policies are designed to make lots of people much more desperate and therefore the military will be a more attractive option.
…the plan to increase the cost of college loans will no doubt help price college out of reach for some, and the millions of jobs lost, the union busting…all good for recruitment numbers.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2004 5:45 utc | 32

Quote:
“No doubt, the U.S. will also cease to be an empire, as all empires eventually do. What happens in the meantime will be what we all live with and through.”
***
Not sure we’ll ALL live at all.Some are dieing as we speak…
You are so right about everything else…

Posted by: vbo | Jul 26 2004 6:06 utc | 33

Of course wars can be about more than WMD or perceived ‘terrorist threats’…
The business of war

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 26 2004 6:47 utc | 34

the empire fails when the gains of conquest are superceded by the cost of such conquest.
read any more disruption to the current (un)stability of the cost of oil production from the middle east should render further military operations there moot,even for the short run.
a military strike on Iran by Israel or the US could wreak havoc on oil/gas prices in in the US,thereby rendering an already fragile economy (the recovery is over already) under,perhaps fatal, duress.
if GWB had any semblence of patriotism, he’d resign his nomination, grow his hair long, move back to his ranch in texas,and well you know the rest.
good night moon

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 26 2004 8:00 utc | 35

that’l be me

Posted by: anna mist | Jul 26 2004 8:03 utc | 36

Everyboby stands around the poker table watching with disbelief as the US throws more and more on the table,raising and raising, on that pair of 3’s.
Well, yes. But they also know that he’s got a pair of aces up his sleeves, and the only one at the table who managed to get his piece through the metal detector.
So, if the other players’ feet weren’t shackled to the floor they would have folded long ago. Everybody knew that the odds would have been better at the blackjack table, but the US got to choose which game to play.
The question is: who is hosting the game?

Posted by: fiumana bella | Jul 26 2004 9:14 utc | 37

*** OFF-TOPIC ***
@ Bernhard:
La Repubblica in Italy has an article (URL below) stating among other things that lots of their soldiers who were in Iraq are sick because of contact with DU (two deaths during the last month only).
http://www.repubblica.it/2004/g/sezioni/cronaca/uraniobalcani/uraniobalcani/uraniobalcani.html
my quesiton: would you consider starting a thread about this stuff in the near future ?
why this is important ? since there is a possibility that kerry will win the elections (if they take place) it is possible that he manages to get a number of his “european allies” on board for the continued looting of iraq, meaning that soon lots of soldiers and “trainers” and “humanitarian workers” will come home with radiant souvenirs like the italians.

Posted by: name | Jul 26 2004 14:21 utc | 38

People of Serbia experienced DU effect too. They are dieing from cancer like flies …and I am talking innocent CIVILIANS here (including Kosovo Albanians that they “rescued”)…and nobody even cares to take this to consideration let alone to put responsibility in right place. They even are pressuring Serbia to give up on suing NATO for bombardment and all damage…
And again we are worrying about Coalition solders here and WTF with Iraqis?
But then again…what goes around comes around…you people would say…It will come home…
Yes…let see thread on DU… ”Luckily” it’s “conventional” weapon…and now they are talking “small nuke’s”…Criminals…

Posted by: vbo | Jul 26 2004 15:01 utc | 39

A DU thread? Would this be a good place to begin?

Posted by: beq | Jul 26 2004 15:30 utc | 40

####OFF TOPIC###
A New Soviet-American Standoff.
M.T. Kalashnikov is claiming patent infringement.
I couldn’t resist. I had to beat NEMO to this one:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/26/international/europe/26russ.html?hp

Posted by: FLASHHARRY | Jul 26 2004 15:39 utc | 41

And here: The War Against Ourselves: an interview with Major Doug Rokke, PhD.
Excerpt:
“Q: If your information got out widely, do you think there’s a possibility that the families of those soldiers would beg them to refuse?
ROKKE: If you’re going to be sent into a toxic wasteland, and you know you’re going to wear gas masks and chemical protective suits that leak, and you’re not going to get any medical care after you’re exposed to all of these things, would you go? Suppose they gave a war and nobody came. You’ve got to start peace sometime.
Q: It does sound remarkable for someone who has been in the military for 35 years to be talking about when peace should begin.
ROKKE: When I do these talks, especially in churches, I’m reminded that these religions say, “And a child will lead us to peace.” But if we contaminate the environment, where will the child come from? The children won’t be there. War has become obsolete, because we can’t deal with the consequences on our warriors or the environment, but more important, on the noncombatants. When you reach a point in war when the contamination and the health effects of war can’t be cleaned up because of the weapons you use, and medical care can’t be given to the soldiers who participated in the war on either side or to the civilians affected, then it’s time for peace.”

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 15:47 utc | 42

It is a trite phrase I know…but when all you have is a hammer everything begins to look like a nail.
BushCo hasn’t shown any talent–to quote Ben Franklin–“To saw with a file and to file with a saw.”
These are not craftsman. These are not statesmen.
They are hammers who like to pound.
Pound their adversaries at home, and pound their adversaries abroad.
These are primitive tribal folk. Fundamentally: you are either with their Party or against their Party.
So of course they want to pound Iraq. It is not a question of will they, it is a question when–and whom.
Would they be sated with an Israeli bomb run? Probably.
Would they love to personally stir shit up and bomb them into the dark ages?
They are grinning like apes for the chance.
I don’t seeing it happening before the election. However if bush gets reelected or steals another one…it is bombs away before 2005 passes into history.

Posted by: koreyel | Jul 26 2004 15:56 utc | 43

Oops I did it again:
It should read:
So of course they want to pound Iran. It is not a question of will they, it is a question when–and whom.

Posted by: koreyel | Jul 26 2004 15:59 utc | 44

Kate- I had the chance to hear the Major this year. He came to my burg as part of a speaking tour.
He brought in war heads and slides to show the devastation from DU used in American weapons.
Most of the guys he worked with who dealt with DU are dead now, if I remember correctly.
But the wars we are fighting with DU are poisoning people and their lands long after the fighting stops.
It is insanity to do this.
And, yes, vbo, in the back of my mind I do wonder about a moment when all this “limited” nuclear war comes home to those of us who live in the U.S.
have you ever seen the Kowatqaasi trilogy?
makes you think.

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 26 2004 22:52 utc | 45

Here’s a pretty extensive list of linked articles and papers on DU.
One of the links is to Dennis Kucinich’s position paper on DU

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 23:23 utc | 46

And this one is a must have site, a six section series on The Human Cost of Depleted Uranium.
Madness.

Posted by: Kate_Storm | Jul 26 2004 23:38 utc | 47

Gaddis is spot on: what the US does now is what it’s done since more than 200 years. Just compare the current USA with the original 13 colonies. Well, it’s probably 10 times the original size.
Of course, Gaddis is just wrong in saying that there’s “nothing wrong with what we’re doing”, it’s just that there’s something terribly wrong with what has been going on those last 200 years, including Texas, Florida, stealing half Mexico (itself stolen to the natives), and conquering all these Indian lands. All that before the Spanish-American war, which many say is the first example of American “imperialism”.
All in all I don’t expect much changes if Kerry wins, though other issues may benefit from a Kerry victory and are enough to wish Bush to lose.
That said, considering Iran, the only thing I hope for is that, if it’s doomed to happen, the attack should occur before the election. The US can’t win and will get its ass so seriously kicked Bush may well lose if he goes after Tehran before Novembre.
Going after Iran would be the last imperial act of the USA. Mark my words. The rest of the world won’t stand for it, heck, even the British wouldn’t follow their masters there. Bush does that, and every single American in a Muslim state will be a dead man walking the day after.
Ultimately, the best way to analyse all that happens and to guess what will happen is to know that the US power will decrease, proportionally in in absolute terms, as all empires, the unknowns being how it will happen, who will benefit from it, and who will actually strike the blows – keeping in mind the fact that USSR didn’t need much blows in the last decade.
Kate: The Romans were very good at managing conquered provinces, compared to most following empires. Otherwise there wouldn’t be so many European countries with Latin-derivated languages. In fact, even the Mongols were better than that at keeping provinces. They totally destroyed those that resisted, but spared the others so that they could exploit them. Emptying Iraq to go after Iran would definitely not be something Gengis Khan would’ve done.
Empires fall when the cost of conquest is higher than the benefit. Well, that process may take a long time (centuries with the Roman Empire). The shorter way is simply to let them overextend to the point that they don’t have enough troops to expand further (an economic necessity) and deal with the internal revolts; this is basically what ended Napoleon’s and Hitler’s empires. And anyone who actually thinks the US has enough manpower to try to Roman way is in serious delusion, imho.
fauxreal: “of course, Bush’s economic policies are designed to make lots of people much more desperate and therefore the military will be a more attractive option.
…the plan to increase the cost of college loans will no doubt help price college out of reach for some, and the millions of jobs lost, the union busting…all good for recruitment numbers.”
It works both ways. With luck, these people may finally see who the Enemy really is and decide to make their own US-based insurgency, rather than pointlessly shooting camels and Iraqi civilians.
DU is a crime of the highest order. That kind of stuff should really be considered just as bad as using an actual nuke, and states using this should be treated as such. Not that it’s going to happen for some time. And of course, why bother since “they hate us because of our freedom”.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 26 2004 23:57 utc | 48

Iranians issue gentle warning to Israelis
Iran responds to regional and Israeli threats of attack by vowing to wipe Israel “off the face of the earth” if it attacks the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.
“The United States is showing off by threatening to use its wild dog, Israel,” the public relations head of the Revolutionary Guards, Commander Seyed Masood Jazayeri, was quoted as saying by the Iranian student news agency ISNA…
Iran warns Israel of retaliation if attacked
Just wait until the Iranians get angry!

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 27 2004 0:55 utc | 49

My half-cent opinion is that the US will not attack Iran, for all the reasons mentioned in different posts above, but particularly because the US army is over-extended as is. I think the original plan – subversion leading to an internal uprising – is still in place.
People there, particularly the young, are really fed up. The situation is not comparable to Iraq; Saddam was horrible, but not as wearing day-to-day as a mullocracy.
Telling example: an excerpt from Abtahi’s blog – he is Vice President of Parliamentary Legal Affairs, and a faithful follower of Khatami:
The Crisis of hopes to the future
In many of the meetings which we hold for making big decisions, one of the main issues of discussions is “what is the crisis of youth?” each person takes his/her part supposing himself youth’s friend and look for the youth crisis in an area. Well, now that everybody gives a right to himself to give out his opinions, I do want to talk about my points of views as well.
In my opinion, the main problem of our society’s youth in this political uproar and in such situation in which the personal needs of youth are not considered is the crisis of being hopeful to their future.
In fact, almost each young adult whose aim is improvement and upgrading sees his future somehow dark which leaves him no hope. Therefore, a young adult who has no hope will face with an immense crisis.
More at: Abtahi blog
US mutterings and threats and posturings are intended to stir the pot, keep up pressure, and show that regime change, or whatever the expression du jour is, is the only acceptable option.

Posted by: Blackie | Jul 27 2004 16:16 utc | 50

“We’re not scared of your hypocritical steenkin’ threats.” – Iran
Iran building centrifuges
US war on terror is “void” after decision to protect ‘People’s Mujahedeen’: Iran
Iranian prosecutor shuts 2 newspapers

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 27 2004 23:08 utc | 51

@Nemo:
Why don’t we go down to the previous open thread, and discuss literary ventures.

Posted by: Harold Lloyd | Jul 27 2004 23:14 utc | 52

one of the many things that bothers me so much about all this hatred is that there is so much beauty out there to share between cultures.
Abbas Kiarostami has made so many wonderful films…his film based upon the Iranian female poet who wrote, “The Wind Will Carry Us” is powerful in ways that westerners raised on Coyote Ugly need to know.
Majid Majidi has also made such powerful films for and about children. If you’ve never seen Children of Heaven, I highly recommend it.
Also the movie, Gabbeh, an interwoven story of loves, based on the fable of Leila and Majoun.
There are people all over the world with visions and wisdom to share with each other.
…O you who are green from head to toe!
put your hands
—like a burning
memory into my loving hands–
lover’s hands!
entrust your lips –your lips
like a warm sense of being!–
entrust!– your lips to the caresses of my
–loving lips– lover’s lips!
the wind will carry us with it
the wind will carry us with it”

Farrokhzad – trans. David Martin

Posted by: fauxreal | Jul 28 2004 0:11 utc | 53

Fauxreal:
Unfortunately, it is incumbent upon us to clean the Augean stables of the filth and contamination of Bush, before any of us, world-wide, will ever be able to smell the roses.
Just my thoughts!
With great respect and affection.
An American

Posted by: Harold Lloyd | Jul 28 2004 0:28 utc | 54

@ fauxreal
Excellent points. Cross-pollination can produce new and beautiful hybrid roses that are as breathtakingly lovely as any ‘pure’ strains.
Cultural ‘swapping’ and admixture has been taking place for centuries but the benefits are ignored or unknown. The Arab or Persian origins of commercial terms like bazaar, cheque, tariff and traffic and items such as damask and fustian point to long-standing mercantilist contacts. Nautical terms, the derivation of navigational instruments, astronomical tables and cartographic methods, the transfer of Arab agricultural technology to Western Europe, the transfer of technical skills required for the glass industry, for glazed pottery production, for the paper industry, for the silk industry, all these came out of the Muslim world (the fact that paper, the compass and certain agricultural techniques originated in Chinese and Indian culture is acknowledged but it was from the Muslim world that all or most of this know-how reached Western Europe).
Aside from ‘practical things’ associated with commerce and agricultural development the themes you point to – literature, stories and the exchange of human experience are no less important gifts. And the exchange was not and needs not to be a one way journey.
Rumi, for example, can still speak to the hearts of all peoples, as can other Persian, Arab and Muslim writers and poets. The various ways of recording and reflecting experience are there for all humanity to taste and to learn from. In such exchange lies pleasure, hope and benefit – in the exchange of bullets, bombs and missiles lies misery, despair and mutual ruin.

Posted by: Nemo | Jul 28 2004 1:06 utc | 55

Has anybody noticed how thick Juan Cole’s post have become?
They are so logically dense I’ve taken to printing them out and reading them with a pencil in hand. Wow! You should see my margin notes…
Ergo I am a bit behind the Juan Cole curve…so I hadn’t read his 7/21/2004 07:05:08 AM post until today.
Let me just share with you the lead paragraph:

Iran in Bush’s Sights:
The same techniques used to get up the Iraq war are now being applied by the political Right in the United States, including President Bush, to Iran. These include innuendo, guilt by association, vague fears, and hyped capabilities. If Bush gets a second term, it seems very likely that his administration will make war on Iran.

That is almost the exact thing I wrote on July 26, 2004 11:56 AM.
My post was based almost entirely on intuition: a sensing of the republican mind at work and play.
Juan’s opinion is much more practical and fact based.
It is a thick read. I suggest it heartily.

Posted by: koreyel | Jul 28 2004 1:15 utc | 56

@Fauxreal … your words: There are people all over the world with visions and wisdom to share with each other. struck quite a chord with me tonight. I was just in Montreal for a quick vacation and found myself one night with tears in my eyes and the biggest smile ever across my face as I strolled along Rue de la Commune after watching the Saq Mondial fireworks competition with what felt like all of the city on the piers of Old Port. What brought my tears and my smile was the way Montreal is home to an astonishing array of people from all reaches of the world – we had spent the morning watching Chinese Dragon Boat races at the Olympic basin, danced the afternoon away at the African Music festival downtown – and now I was finishing the day watching Andean pipers play the theme from Zorba as a hodgepodge of folks danced with the zest of Anthony Quinn and a Chinese grandmother lifted her little granddaughter to see the fun and a hiphop youth joined in with the beats … ah! ah! this is the way the world can be … so many rich traditions filling the streets with joy and laughter and music … and genuine appreciation of each other.
And … at least for me … I can only have the power to fight the fascists when I also dance with the world I wish to see born.

Posted by: Siun | Jul 28 2004 2:45 utc | 57